Russia has lost nearly 90% of its original troop strength since invading Ukraine in February 2022, a U.S. intelligence report, declassified as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Washington to plead for additional military aid, assessed, according to media reports.
Moscow’s hope with a massive, costly push into eastern Ukraine throughout the fall and early winter was to spark distrust of Ukraine’s abilities among its western allies and erode their support for the defending nation, Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said, according to The New York Times. Russia has lost up to 315,000 troops killed, wounded or missing in Ukraine since the start of the war and loads of equipment, setting back military modernization efforts roughly 15 years, according to a newly declassified intelligence assessment.
Russia began the war with 360,000 forces, and Moscow has conducted mobilizations and sent convicts to the front lines to compensate for the staggering losses, the NYT reported, citing the assessment. In addition, Russia has lost 2,200 tanks after starting the war with 3,500, resorting to pulling 50-year-old T-62 tanks out of retirement. (RELATED: Ukraine Is Running Out Of Men To Fight Against Russia)
Russia’s gambit did not produce any strategic gains, Watson said, according to the NYT. The U.S. intelligence community believes losses forced Russia to commit less sophisticated equipment and more inexperienced troops to the front, combining to reduce the complexity of Russian military operations on the front.
“The war in Ukraine has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force,” the declassified assessment said, according to the NYT. “As of late November, Russia had lost over a quarter of its pre-2022 stockpile of ground forces equipment and has suffered casualties among its trained professional army.”
While engaged in attritional fighting with Ukrainian troops in places like Avdiivka since October, the Russian army has suffered 13,000 men killed or wounded and the loss of 220 combat vehicles, Watson said, according to Politico.
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher.
Ukraine has warned it is already being forced to downsize some military operations because of a drop-off in foreign aid.
Top general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said troops faced ammunition shortages along the "entire front line", creating a "big problem" for Kyiv.
It comes as billions of dollars of US and EU aid have been held up amid political wrangles.
Ukraine was already facing an ammunition shortage as Western powers struggled to maintain supplies. The EU pledged to send one million artillery shells by March 2024, but so far only 480,000 have been either delivered or are in the pipeline.
Meanwhile, the US has provided Ukraine with more than two million 155mm shells for use in Western-made artillery systems. But its own stocks have been depleted, prompting the decision last summer to send cluster munitions.
Ukraine is already using ammunition faster than partners can produce it. A report by the Estonian defence ministry said Kyiv needed a minimum of 200,000 artillery shells a month to retain an edge against Russia.
"Sustaining this rate will empty European and US stockpiles over 2024 and will require significant foreign purchases of ammunition," it said.
?s=20💥🔥 According to Russian Sources 2 SU-34 aircraft were destroyed in the Ukrainian drone attack targeting the Morozovsk military airfield russia . 10 claimed damaged. pic.twitter.com/3I54CW9QiQ
— Ukraine News 🇺🇦 (@Ukrainene) December 18, 2023
?s=20According to RU sources: 2 SU-34 destroyed, 10 - damaged in Morozovsk military airfield (Rostov region) pic.twitter.com/KrESoPHXjI
— WarFrontline (@WarFrontline) December 18, 2023
Only China, North Korea and Iran can match the shell supply Ukraine needs. But they are diehard pro-Russia. North Korea alone provided 1M shells to Russia. Others with less prowess are South Korea and India -- both are fencesitting, miserly traders who won't give arms for free.
Anyway we all discovered NATO had no capacity to beat Russia when they tried to cajole Gulf monarchs and global south to provide weapons: almost all refused, Brazil was the most blunt. Even poor Taiwan had to give weapons despite invasion threat from China.
But now they have to supply Israel too, especially in case of a face-off with Hezbollah. Zelenskyy is about to learn a very painful lesson. There will be backroom meetings among old spooks - a deal will be struck - a new 'neutral' leader will be picked and the comedian will merely be updated.