Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nowayhaha on October 09, 2023, 07:07:46 PM
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The Scenario Analysis for Kenya for the next 25 years looks dicey if we continue on the same trend. Often, I wonder if the right people in government bother with any kind of long-term thinking and planning.
Seven things will play out in the next 25 years: The Kikuyus coming to terms with the trauma of colonialism, and their gluttonous elite who stole their future (more like the South African situation post-apartheid), The Luo political outlook post-Odingaism, The Kajiado/Kiambu/Machakos land factor, The Somali factor (Somalis in Kenya and the rebuilding of the Somalia as a country), global economics, climate change, the demographic factor.
In the next election, a Somali will be number 3 (speaker or chief justice) and in ten years’ time, maybe a vice-president or even a president. Will we go the Nigerian way, where power is traded between the Islamic North and the Christian South? At the moment, this is not an issue, but both Christianity and Islam can be radical when a lot is at stake. How will this play out, and is there anything that can be done to forestall any likelihood of mistrust? So far, in terms of tolerance, we have done well, shall we continue on the same trajectory, or this can change?
The Luos have slowly been disengaging from Odingaism as they come to terms with the mortality of Raila Odinga. I will write a separate piece about “The Healing of The Luo Nation”. It started slowly in 2007, and actively in 2017. A lot has gone on in Luo land, unnoticed, until recently when the question of dead capital came after people realised Luos been building beautiful homes back at home. Those houses are a symbolic victory for a tribe that has been wronged the most historically. But to that, some other day.
Kajiado, Kiambu and Machakos. As Nairobi expands, the land factor is inevitable. Whereas, I believe, nobody owns any piece of land on earth, we arbitrarily occupy space, it is a fact that each community has its ancestral land. The Maa community happens to own the largest share of arable land south of the Equator, and we have all moved there. What is the future of the Maa community? For sure, we will keep buying land, we will keep pushing them down, but is this sustainable? I am seeing a serious problem down the line, and nobody is talking about this. Granted, nobody lives where they were born, and nobody will die where they were raised. In the world we live in now, we are all itinerant, and with urbanization and globalization, people will keep on moving, new countries will be born, and new cities will be built from scratch.
But we have to think about the land factor seriously.
And now, the Kikuyu factor.
You notice that the Kikuyus are permanently on the defensive, save for the period under Kibaki, when they went on the offensive, but that didn’t last as 2007 scared the living daylights out of them. It was a reality check, and the truce with the Kalenjin nation worked, and the friendship forged looked good until the fallout of Uhuru and Ruto. Ruto went for a Kikuyu deputy that nobody seems to respect. Not the majority of Kikuyus, not Kikuyu politicians. And now people are reading a fallout. Predictable. And now, with Maina Njenga holding rallies across Central Kenya, many observers think something is amiss. There is a tribal, cultural awakening in Kikuyuland. How will it be midwifed to ensure that we don’t go down a certain, treacherous, and perilous road?
Kikuyus were done dirty by the home guards. And the Kikuyu elite have come to symbolize the Kenyan elite problem. By elite here, I mean, affluence.
Rich people in Kenya lack imagination. That is why, no sooner someone steals than they erect ugly flats in the outskirts of Nairobi. Only Indians in Kenya and a few Kenyans have built industries or factories from scratch. This lack of imagination means funds are stolen, buried in real estate, or stashed in offshore accounts, even as people suffer.
Until our elite can reimagine Kenya, build new cities from scratch, and rethink ways the money can generate more resources, shall we solve the next problem: Unemployment? In a sense, Kikuyu problems are Kenyan problems: the youths want opportunities, a good business environment, source of income/livelihood in order to provide for their families.
The youth factor is crucial. The next two elections will send baby boomers out of town and will usher in millennials and Gen Z into power. I have not seen different leadership patterns, or novel ideas from younger leaders beyond being on TikTok, and the ruse of transparency. They have the same appetite for greed, the same primitive accumulation of wealth. In a sense, it is the curse of the colour of our skin.
Globally, some economies may shrink, especially the West which we have traditionally relied on for loans and aid. How do we become self-sufficient? Where do we align ourselves with the new global world order? What is our place in Africa? I recently told you guys that we have lost a lot of respect from our neighbors, and even our soft power and touch are gone, but not entirely lost.
And then, there is climate change. In the next 30 years, we may end up with a lot of stranded assets, many people rendered jobless, and if the projections go as estimated, those floods, and droughts/famine may wreck our lives and those of our children a good one. Are we prepared for all these? The good thing about climate change, it offers a chance to reimagine a new world, and create new opportunities. Many countries in the West are adjusting themselves to this new reality. Are we prepared in any way?
From where I sit, the time to end tribalism is now. Anyone who thinks in terms of tribe is living in the past. Our towns have become very cosmopolitan, and the problems we have from now going forward are uniquely Kenyan, even though each tribe has its own internal reckoning.
Time to launch project Kenya.
What is missing in Africa is the imagination that can lift more than half of its citizens from poverty and load them onto the middle class, in that, they can afford the basics like good healthcare, healthy foods, good education, and some bit of luxury.
Not sure how that will come to be, but it helps to think about it.
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Apart from the obvious in the article its quite pedestrian and simplistic, 25 years from now Kenya will depend on how Ruto runs it for the next 10 years, the main thing is economy if he fails then the scenarios playing out will be numerous.
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My parents life was a little easier after independence.
I had a job but was a dead end so I moved,
My 30yr old nephews and nieces jobless since university.
I dont see it getting better.
Each generation is worse off, but the superwealthy are doing great.