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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: gout on April 05, 2023, 08:10:03 PM

Title: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: gout on April 05, 2023, 08:10:03 PM
Going after the wealth of the dynasties was low hanging fruit but they just wanted to negotiate and get a cut. Now they get the flak and no end in sight of the economic mess.


Counties have got nothing since November. Those which have broken down internally generated income systems have ground to a halt. Grants will help some limp along.

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“The 47 counties are owed 31.45 billion in January 2023 and Sh31.45 billion for February. The counties have also not received disbursements amounting to Sh29.6 billion for March,” Governor Barasa told the Nation.
“There is no development taking place and critical dockets like agriculture, health and education have been hurt,” the county boss said.

The Nation learnt that in some counties, early childhood development education teachers and health workers are yet to receive their pay for up to two months, demoralising many.

The affected counties include Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Marsabit, Murang’a, Laikipia, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, Nyamira, Kisii and Kisumu.

https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/pain-suffering-as-thousands-go-without-pay-in-20-counties--4185306
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 05, 2023, 08:31:23 PM
Ruto is too soft.

If you cant give people money

Give them blood of the villains.

or their heads.

At least people will understand why they are broke.

It dereliction of duty to accuse Kenyattas of sinking kenya economy and do nothing about it.

It total BS - GO HARD ON THEM - HANG THEM - Let people at least know they are all suffering
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: Georgesoros on April 05, 2023, 08:55:28 PM
Ever thought about cutting spending??
Start with Cutting 2% 6 months, and raise revenue by the same.

If you are a regular supplier to govt, chances are youll never get paid.
My friends went bankrupt waiting for payment and that was Kibaki time.
Nowadays there are specialists who know the system and bilk the govt.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: gout on April 05, 2023, 09:40:59 PM
Sioni any other way around the economy where according to Kroll report, Gideon Moi had traceable wealth of up to 50 billion while the national budget was a mere 260 billion.  That was 20 years ago!

Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: Kadudu on April 05, 2023, 11:50:27 PM
Make a new Kroll report and your idol William Ruto will play a central role.

Guys, wake and and realise William Ruto cannot is since 2013 part of the dynasties. How can he fight his own?

Sioni any other way around the economy where according to Kroll report, Gideon Moi had traceable wealth of up to 50 billion while the national budget was a mere 260 billion.  That was 20 years ago!
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: Nowayhaha on April 06, 2023, 12:56:24 AM
When I talked about Industrialization I was told to read the Manifesto…..
According to Pundit and the technocrats Kenyas economy would be turned around by confiscating Uhurus moneys.
Well here we are …..
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 06, 2023, 08:16:01 AM
When I talked about Industrialization I was told to read the Manifesto…..
According to Pundit and the technocrats Kenyas economy would be turned around by confiscating Uhurus moneys.
Well here we are …..
Yes the plan talk about state capture including an inquiry..we need it.We cannot industrialize just because you want
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 06, 2023, 08:45:54 AM
Even if all the dynasties money were confiscated it wouldn't dent Kenya's economic problems. Besides it would take years if ever. Kenya is running budget deficit of $10b annually, our problem are recurrent expenditure and spending.  overborrowing is caused by spending and bloated government. The solution would have been big bang economic approach ; deregulate, cut spending, privatize and cut taxes. We're only delaying the inevitable. Otherwise kenya economic growth will range between 4% to 6% depending on the weather and that's not enough to reduce poverty.   
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 06, 2023, 09:12:46 AM
There is some hope the VAT collections will go up with role out of ETIMS
?s=20

Even if all the dynasties money were confiscated it wouldn't dent Kenya's economic problems. Besides it would take years if ever. Kenya is running budget deficit of $10b annually, our problem are recurrent expenditure and spending.  overborrowing is caused by spending and bloated government. The solution would have been big bang economic approach ; deregulate, cut spending, privatize and cut taxes. We're only delaying the inevitable. Otherwise kenya economic growth will range between 4% to 6% depending on the weather and that's not enough to reduce poverty.   
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 06, 2023, 09:17:39 AM
The problem is gov is unable to borrow.
17% subscription for 10yr bond at 14%.

Now treasury might resort to taking overdraft from central bank - printing money

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Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: gout on April 06, 2023, 12:36:00 PM
The quasi-judicial state capture commission was to quicken the pace of slow moving EACC, ARA, courts, police.

There are so many intended and unintended economic benefits for confiscating dynasties wealth. Take Kenyatta's and Mo'is land - give prime land to Chinese to repay their loans and then build us affordable housing and engage in large scale farming or just divide it out to those stuck in slums.
Northlands only is costed at $5B.

In banking, Treasury is at the mercy of Kenyattas and Ndegwas despite forex criminalities.

The 100 billion ufool used outside budget should be surcharged to his estate. Now he is getting millions before nurses and doctors. These evils were to be stopped!
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/uhuru-kenyatta-starts-receiving-his-sh1-32m-monthly-pension--4186538
 
Even if all the dynasties money were confiscated it wouldn't dent Kenya's economic problems. Besides it would take years if ever. Kenya is running budget deficit of $10b annually, our problem are recurrent expenditure and spending.  overborrowing is caused by spending and bloated government. The solution would have been big bang economic approach ; deregulate, cut spending, privatize and cut taxes. We're only delaying the inevitable. Otherwise kenya economic growth will range between 4% to 6% depending on the weather and that's not enough to reduce poverty.   
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: sema on April 06, 2023, 06:01:22 PM
Quote
The solution would have been big bang economic approach ; deregulate, cut spending, privatize and cut taxes

Does Ndii not know this or is this something he is working on?

cut spending where? deregulate what? and cut taxes in what industries?
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 06, 2023, 06:38:45 PM
Gov is broke - unable to pay even parliament salaries.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: Nowayhaha on April 06, 2023, 08:23:58 PM

Very true , this is not sustainable

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/national/article/2001470443/mps-and-senators-to-go-on-easter-without-march-salaries


Quote
Recurrent expenditure, which largely includes civil servants’ wages, usually gobbles up a significant amount of the revenue collected by the government monthly.

For instance, the Government of Kenya collected Sh1.83 trillion between July 1, 2022 and February 28, 2023. Out of this, Sh727 billion (40 per cent) was used on recurrent expenditure and Sh694 billion (38 per cent) on public debt.


Even if all the dynasties money were confiscated it wouldn't dent Kenya's economic problems. Besides it would take years if ever. Kenya is running budget deficit of $10b annually, our problem are recurrent expenditure and spending.  overborrowing is caused by spending and bloated government. The solution would have been big bang economic approach ; deregulate, cut spending, privatize and cut taxes. We're only delaying the inevitable. Otherwise kenya economic growth will range between 4% to 6% depending on the weather and that's not enough to reduce poverty.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 06, 2023, 09:11:52 PM
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Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 07, 2023, 09:07:09 AM
The quasi-judicial state capture commission was to quicken the pace of slow moving EACC, ARA, courts, police.

There are so many intended and unintended economic benefits for confiscating dynasties wealth. Take Kenyatta's and Mo'is land - give prime land to Chinese to repay their loans and then build us affordable housing and engage in large scale farming or just divide it out to those stuck in slums.
Northlands only is costed at $5B.

In banking, Treasury is at the mercy of Kenyattas and Ndegwas despite forex criminalities.

The 100 billion ufool used outside budget should be surcharged to his estate. Now he is getting millions before nurses and doctors. These evils were to be stopped!
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/uhuru-kenyatta-starts-receiving-his-sh1-32m-monthly-pension--4186538
The Chinese have collateral for their loans e.g mombasa port, large scale farming would entail serious capital investment to recover their loans. And Northlands isn't even worth $1b as it is, for it be worth $5b a substantial construction investment is needed. Also kenya just doesn't have enough earners who can afford northland houses, so this is a longterm project e.g https://nation.africa/kenya/business/erdemann-s-sh7bn-2-720-house-plan-stalls-4172858 .  Confiscating dynasty land isn't a panacea or even a bridge to alleviate Kenya fiscal problems.
NCBA is the 4th largest bank they dont control the sector, all the top banks made roughly 8b on forex trading except coop bank is really a sacco bank. Regulations of every sector is what needs to be reviewed to rid the country of crony capitalism.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 07, 2023, 09:10:44 AM
Quote
The solution would have been big bang economic approach ; deregulate, cut spending, privatize and cut taxes

Does Ndii not know this or is this something he is working on?

cut spending where? deregulate what? and cut taxes in what industries?
What to deregulate ? https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=14901.0 , cut taxes from corporate, excise, vat to payroll taxes. Spending, every ministry has bloated budget and is over staffed.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 07, 2023, 09:19:41 AM
The problem is gov is unable to borrow.
17% subscription for 10yr bond at 14%.

Now treasury might resort to taking overdraft from central bank - printing money

?s=20
CBK is behind the curve and has to increase rates. High interest rates low growth is what we're sleep walking into, meanwhile world bank raises eurobond default risk https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/world-bank-wary-of-kenya-s-ability-to-retire-sh264bn-eurobond--4187468 .
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 07, 2023, 09:26:36 AM
Yes they have to increase rate and issue 1-2yr bonds - which again multiply the risk of defaulting next year - as everything matures. The only way out for now
1) hope KRA improves revenue collection drastically
2) hope privatization bill sail through - sell likes of KPA to likes of Mercer or Safaricom to Vodagone - get the dollars to repay Eurobond.
3) Borrow from commercial banks abroad - try to find dollar denominated syndicated loan to repay Eurobond.

I dont see budget cut working - there is nothing much to cut - likes of education takes almost 1/3 of the budget - security and essential services in counties take another 1/3 - leaving little room for cutting.

CBK is behind the curve and has to increase rates. High interest rates low growth is what we're sleep walking into, meanwhile world bank raises eurobond default risk https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/world-bank-wary-of-kenya-s-ability-to-retire-sh264bn-eurobond--4187468 .
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: gout on April 07, 2023, 10:38:48 AM
The state capture was to circumvent these hurdles. Guilty 100%. No recourse.

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Angola’s battle against corruption
Despite having retrieved approximately $15bn in stolen assets, SENRA believes that there could be well over $100bn in unrecovered assets that could top up the investment fund if repatriated.

According to SENRA, members of the dos Santos family, former government officials, and ex-managers of state-owned companies illegally transferred some $150bn abroad between 2001 and 2017.

The process of recovering these assets is complicated as they are scattered around many countries across the world, each with their own financial legislation.

The Angolan attorney general’s office reported that requests for cooperation have already been made to Switzerland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Bermuda, the United Arab Emirates, Mauritius, Monaco, Malta, the Isle of Man, and others.

Retrieving billions of dollars from these countries’ commercial banks might have an adverse effect on their finances, causing problems for Angola. Last June, SENRA director Eduarda Rodrigues said that Angola needed to find financial mechanisms to repatriate the money without causing harm to other countries.
https://african.business/2023/03/finance-services/angola-creates-15bn-fund-from-recovered-assets
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: gout on April 07, 2023, 10:45:04 AM
All these will be rewarding crony capital and the entrenched dynasties whie punishing the poor further.

Why should lowly paid staff be the ones to pay for the sins of dynasties while we continue to subsidise these dynasties? Where will money for golden handshakes come from??

What to deregulate ? https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=14901.0 , cut taxes from corporate, excise, vat to payroll taxes. Spending, every ministry has bloated budget and is over staffed.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 07, 2023, 11:38:44 AM
All these will be rewarding crony capital and the entrenched dynasties whie punishing the poor further.

Why should lowly paid staff be the ones to pay for the sins of dynasties while we continue to subsidise these dynasties? Where will money for golden handshakes come from??

What to deregulate ? https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=14901.0 , cut taxes from corporate, excise, vat to payroll taxes. Spending, every ministry has bloated budget and is over staffed.
Recovering stashed petrol dollars is easier in a commodity export driven economy. State capture in kenya as per ndii is mainly regulatory capture meaning unwinding the regulatory framework would reduce crony capitalism.  Its actually the reason why lucid ndii suggested to amnesty on corruption. Severance pay is one time payment that reduces recurrent payments which is kenya's biggest fiscal problem. The government is running out of options, borrowing cost is escalating and tax collection can't plug the gap. 
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: sema on April 07, 2023, 06:43:56 PM
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Its actually the reason why lucid ndii suggested to amnesty on corruption. Severance pay is one time payment that reduces recurrent payments which is kenya's biggest fiscal problem. The government is running out of options, borrowing cost is escalating and tax collection can't plug the gap.

How would an amnesty stop the extreme greed of people in Kenya?

And when you say the government is running out of options, Ndii doesn't think so (he seems to think his plan will work)
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: Georgesoros on April 07, 2023, 09:08:17 PM
We are all Kenyans, so the thinking that what affects govt wotn affect everyone is like saying my infected toe wont affect the rest of the body. Unfortunately, the people who are supposed to make policy are not very wise. That is the reason investors are losing faith in govt. Cutting spending to generate growth is the right thing. It is like losing weight.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 08, 2023, 11:16:12 AM
Ndii speak for many of us
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Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 08, 2023, 01:55:45 PM
Quote
Its actually the reason why lucid ndii suggested to amnesty on corruption. Severance pay is one time payment that reduces recurrent payments which is kenya's biggest fiscal problem. The government is running out of options, borrowing cost is escalating and tax collection can't plug the gap.

How would an amnesty stop the extreme greed of people in Kenya?

And when you say the government is running out of options, Ndii doesn't think so (he seems to think his plan will work)
Which plan is that?
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 08, 2023, 03:02:53 PM
The elephant in the room is ministry of education.
Free education cost 1/3 of the budget.
Gov has to cut 1/3 of that - and save 200B.

That will mean parents going back to pay for school fees.


In 2015, Kenya’s expenditure on education was 16.65 per cent of the total budget, increased to 26 per cent (Sh473 billion) in the 2019-2020 financial http://year.It further rose to 29.4 per cent (Sh497 billion) and Sh503.9 billion in the 2020-2021, now 30% +

CBC just added another 93B - with 30K new teachers and money to build schools.

This big problem - that require a solution - 33% budget spend on educating kids is commendable but unsustainable.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: patel on April 08, 2023, 09:27:39 PM
These people demonstrate for a month now they are wondering how come the country is broke. Bure kabisa
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 09, 2023, 12:28:04 AM
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Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 09, 2023, 07:57:18 AM
Spooked debt market will either demand high yields on longterm debt to the tune of 18% or shortterm debt with yields of 12-14% which will exacerbate refinancing cost. Mind you government isn't retiring debt only refinancing. Anyone who's reliant on government will be in dire financial straits. 
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 09, 2023, 10:31:12 AM
What is the alternative for Banksters or pension funds - now the gravy train in forex has been shut (spread now is 5 shs) - and I see coop reduced lending to 13%. Most banks despite being allowed to raise interest rate - are stuck with 15% - as aggressive SACCOs - offer 11%. So awash with depositer/investment cash - they have little option - or watch their money eaten by inflation.

They either lend kenya gov at 14% or lend the private sector at 13% - and contend with NPL at 13%.


Spooked debt market will either demand high yields on longterm debt to the tune of 18% or shortterm debt with yields of 12-14% which will exacerbate refinancing cost. Mind you government isn't retiring debt only refinancing. Anyone who's reliant on government will be in dire financial straits. 
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 09, 2023, 10:53:55 AM
What is the alternative for Banksters or pension funds - now the gravy train in forex has been shut (spread now is 5 shs) - and I see coop reduced lending to 13%. Most banks despite being allowed to raise interest rate - are stuck with 15% - as aggressive SACCOs - offer 11%. So awash with depositer/investment cash - they have little option - or watch their money eaten by inflation.

They either lend kenya gov at 14% or lend the private sector at 13% - and contend with NPL at 13%.


Spooked debt market will either demand high yields on longterm debt to the tune of 18% or shortterm debt with yields of 12-14% which will exacerbate refinancing cost. Mind you government isn't retiring debt only refinancing. Anyone who's reliant on government will be in dire financial straits. 
Coop is a sacco bank, if I were a trader I'd short the stock. The bank is reliant on civil servants , that's a treacherous position to be in.  Treasury will most likely will tilt its debt offering to short term and the banks will feast on that.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 09, 2023, 11:15:34 AM
Saccos are everywhere in kenya - both civil and private sector employees belong to one.
Banks have very little places to park money.
I think Kenya gov should just put down their feet - like they did in forex market - and banksters will bend over.
Again they can lend to gov at 15% risk free - or lend private sector 15% minus 15% NPL
In short, gov has them by their balls.

Only a conflicted gov like we had with Uhuru would kowtow to banksters.

Gov need to play hard-ball - on interest rates - there is no where else they will take their money.

It is better to delay payments - than raise interest rates to 18 percent - that would be insane.

Coop is a sacco bank, if I were a trader I'd short the stock. The bank is reliant on civil servants , that's a treacherous position to be in.  Treasury will most likely will tilt its debt offering to short term and the banks will feast on that.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: hk on April 09, 2023, 11:27:15 AM
Saccos are everywhere in kenya - both civil and private sector employees belong to one.
Banks have very little places to park money.
I think Kenya gov should just put down their feet - like they did in forex market - and banksters will bend over.
Again they can lend to gov at 15% risk free - or lend private sector 15% minus 15% NPL
In short, gov has them by their balls.

Only a conflicted gov like we had with Uhuru would kowtow to banksters.

Gov need to play hard-ball - on interest rates - there is no where else they will take their money.

It is better to delay payments - than raise interest rates to 18 percent - that would be insane.

Coop is a sacco bank, if I were a trader I'd short the stock. The bank is reliant on civil servants , that's a treacherous position to be in.  Treasury will most likely will tilt its debt offering to short term and the banks will feast on that.
Government is more desperate than banks, let the government withdraw from the market and see what happens.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 09, 2023, 11:42:25 AM
It's a game of who blink first. Let see how it pans out in the next few months. Ruto has to lay the ground rules early like kibaki did. He must take hard decisions. He has 5 or 10yrs - so anything stupid he does know - will hurt him next year.
Government is more desperate than banks, let the government withdraw from the market and see what happens.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: Georgesoros on April 09, 2023, 04:36:21 PM
It's a game of who blink first. Let see how it pans out in the next few months. Ruto has to lay the ground rules early like kibaki did. He must take hard decisions. He has 5 or 10yrs - so anything stupid he does know - will hurt him next year.
Government is more desperate than banks, let the government withdraw from the market and see what happens.

You are right. He has to lay the ground rules, but the only people who currently see these rules as positive are supporters. Kibaki appointed professionals, and all worked as a team, while Ruto has appointed Kindikis and all others that is as stupid stuff like Gachagua. No intelliegnce left. As a result, investors have lost confidence.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: sema on April 09, 2023, 10:23:58 PM
Quote
Which plan is that?


Reducing government borrowing to basically zero.

Expanding the tax base (no special tax subsidies for the dynasties)

Spending whatever is left on agricultural production.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 10, 2023, 12:37:08 AM
Kindiki is law professor - with Phd in law and has taught in major universities. What make you think he is NOT intelligent? Personally I think you're one of dumbest folks we got here. Always shooting from the hip without slightest idea of what is going on..except the niece and nephews without jobs.
You are right. He has to lay the ground rules, but the only people who currently see these rules as positive are supporters. Kibaki appointed professionals, and all worked as a team, while Ruto has appointed Kindikis and all others that is as stupid stuff like Gachagua. No intelliegnce left. As a result, investors have lost confidence.
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: RV Pundit on April 10, 2023, 09:20:48 AM
Something is wrong - if bank would lend at this rate - and still make money
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/capital-markets/average-lending-rate-crosses-13pc-for-first-time-since-2018-4193790
Title: Re: Broke Treasury- Easiest way was to go after dynasties wealth...
Post by: gout on April 10, 2023, 11:22:50 AM
If Kenya is this poor to pay 700,000 public servants, how come dynasties are stinking rich? Plunder of the state=State capture. Full stop.

Solution= Make them pay not the poor to pay even further.

Pending question = HOW? State capture, taxes = Maandamano. Economy tanks further. Handchieth. More Quarrels.

Another ask: Can we clean the mess and behead the dynasties simultaneously.

For now, Hasla has chosen to be the bigger man. Results are OUT.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/salary-delays-tighten-your-belts-state-tells-civil-servants-4193722