Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 23, 2022, 09:27:39 PM
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That is before even respondent responses.
One thing is clearly - this was badly done petition written by a committe of lawyers - scrapping for anything
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Example 1
Ephraim Njega
3h ·
This is how form 34As were uploaded on IEBC portal on Wednesday 10th August 2022. The claims by Azimio that 11,000 form 34As were uploaded two days after the election are false.
The claims that forms were altered and replaced are fictitious. Media houses and other independent entities doing the tallies had already downloaded the forms long before any replacement could happen.
This is from a live by blog by Pulse on Wednesday night.
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01:32: IEBC results update: 85.43% 39,495 of 46,229 polling stations have submitted Forms 34A presidential results
02:57: IEBC results update: 87.77% 40,574 of 46,229 polling stations have submitted Forms 34A presidential results
04:27: IEBC results update: 87.77% 41,413 of 46,229 polling stations have submitted Forms 34A presidential results
05:27: IEBC results update: 90.42% 41,802 of 46,229 polling stations have submitted Forms 34A presidential results
11:20: IEBC receives 44,346 out of 46,229 Forms 34A representing 95.93% of transmitted presidential election results
45,821 of 46,229 polling stations submissions account for 99.12% of transmission as at 7:20 p.m. on August 10, 2022
It is insane to tell these kind of lies in this digital age. Evidence on the contrary is all over the place.
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Example 2
This is the only thing which seemed like a smoking gun in Azimio's petition but the data has since been debunked.
Azimio even makes a simple error of subtraction where their purported variance is given as 23,550 instead of 23,717. The actual variance was just 900 votes.
The actual presidential votes for Nyeri were 329,151 (inclusive of rejected ballots."
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Example 3
Azimio claims in their petition that the presidential votes for Kirinyaga county were 260,900 compared with those of gubernatorial race which they say were 237,183. They claim the difference is a manifestation of fraud.
Apparently, these are the results for Kirinyaga gubernatorial race 2022.
"1.Charles Kibiru 22,065
2. Peter Gitau 10,166
3. Peter Ireri 2,132
4. Bedan Kagai 1,751
5. Comba Ndau 532
6. Joseph Ndathi 3,837
7. Purity Wangui 105,677
8. Anne Waiguru 113,088
Total valid votes 259,248
Spoilt 2,575
Total vote cast 261,823"
The total votes cast for president in Kirinyaga county were actually 262,723 leaving a variance of a mere 900 votes. Is this the evidence we are being told to accept without question?
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Example 4:
Azimio claims in its petition that the postponement of gubernatorial race in Mombasa and Kakamega suppressed voter turnout in those areas. They also claim that the malfunction of KIEMS kits in Makueni and Kakamega also affected voter turnout in their presumed strongholds.
However, when you look at voter turnout in the zones where these counties fall in, there is no evidence that these events affected voter turnout in any significant way.
In Kakamega, voter turnout was 60.29% while in Vihiga it was 60.13% and in Bungoma it was 63.51%.
In Makueni, voter turnout was 61.01% while in Machakos it was 60.20% and in Kitui it was 62.38%.
Maybe there was impact in Mombasa but voter turnout in most urban counties was generally low. Voter turnout in Mombasa was 43.76% while in Kwale it was 54.3% and in Kilifi it was 49.02%. In Nairobi City, voter turnout was 55.96%.
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Example 5:
Ephraim Njega
23h ·
The arguments by Azimio that form 34As uploaded on IEBC portal were altered is a technical and logical absurdity.
First, the tallying of presidential results is based on the original form 34As and not the digital copies posted on IEBC portal. Since form 34As were given to agents at polling stations, it would be absurd for someone to manipulate the digital copies in the portal as this would be easily verified from the hard copies.
Second issue is that if you altered form 34As then you would also need to alter form 34B so that they match. Form 34B has a tally of all the form 34s in a constituency. This is a technical impossibility since you cannot hack and alter a physical form 34B to reflect any changes made in digital form 34As.
Even if we were to assume that someone hacked the system in order to introduce doubts about its integrity, it still would make no sense. The form 34C tallies all the over 46,000 form 34As. To prove their case, they would need to show that what was tallied in form 34C is different from what was announced at polling stations.
These claims are just garbage being fed to zombiefied supporters who have lost the ability to question anything from their political masters. There is no competent court which can entertain these arguments.
Regarding the voter turnout, Azimio is using an erroneous figure of 65.4% yet the actual figure is 64.6%. Besides, you can't use the percentage to compute the turnout figure yet IEBC gave the actual turnout number of 14,164,561. The final turnout of 14,326,639 is higher than the provisional ones which means those who voted manually were also tallied. So the contestation that some voters weren't accounted for is a figment of imagination.
Even if you insist on using the percentage to compute the turnout, then you can't multiply the percentage with the total number of registered voters. This is because the turnout would only relate to the registered voters in the KIEMS kits transmitting the data. It doesn't relate to the entire database of registered voters
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Example 6:
Why is Azimio insisting on calculating their figures using an erroneous figure? When Chebukati was announcing the voter turnout, he erroneously said the percentage was 65.4%. He later clarified during the same press briefing that the turnout was 64.6% and gave the actual figure of 14,164,561.
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Example 7 : Complicity of Azimio four(4) Commissioners
Interestingly one of the four commissioners who disputed the results is the one who read wrong results for Kiambu Town adding Ruto an extra 10,000 votes. Another one read the wrong votes for Juja adding Raila 9,000 votes. Could these have been deliberate attempts to discredit the process or they were innocent errors?
The four claim not to have been involved yet the were reading the verified results throughout the process. There is nowhere they indicated that what they read as verified results was different from what was tallied.
To make matters worse when they addressed the press on Tuesday they did not give reasons why they boycotted the announcement yet were ready to do something that could have set the country aflame.
On Wednesday some of them were still wearing the same clothes they were wearing on Tuesday. I leave that to your interpretation.
The eventual reasons they gave for their boycott were even more absurd. There was nothing to warrant such a drastic move.
Their press conference was synchronised with that of Azimio. You could tell the document Cherera was reading was written by someone else.
How can a commissioner dispute results yet that was the work of the party agents? There is nowhere they were required to sign the form 34C.
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Example 8:
Elijah K. Samuel
2h ·
One last one before I take a break 😊...the table below is on Page 47 of the Petition.
But it has several problems, some of which I highlight below
1. Total presidential votes in Nyeri as per IEBC is 329,151 and not 326,880 as mentioned by Azimio.
2. In Kirinyaga, the total presidential votes was 262,753 and not the 260,900 mentioned by Azimio
3. In both cases above, Azimio quotes the total valid votes excluding the rejected ballots. However, for the other counties in the table below, total votes cast have been used, so, not sure why Nyeri and Kirinyaga were treated with exception
4. The subtraction of the Kirinyaga figures below isn't correct. Instead of 23,550, the figure should be 23,717 😊 (ie. 260,900-237,183).
5. The Gubernatorial votes in Kirinyaga again isn't equal to the indicated figure, but should be equal to 261,823.
6. The Turkana difference shouldn't be be 74 but should be (-74), this means the Governor's total was more than the Presidential Total 😊 by 74.
7. Reconstruction of the above in the table below then gives us a total difference of 5,410 in the 8 counties down from 33,208
Again, let's see how each side will present their case in court and how they will also defend themselves.
There is more I would have penned down, but let me leave it here for now. Back to the social economics statistics
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Example 9:
Elijah K. Samuel
9h ·
Was going through the petitions filed in the Supreme Court by different parties, and some glaring and interesting data can't go unnoticed
Take an example with Paragraph 70 of the Azimio Petition on Page 38 (the circled below in red).
It says that on 11th August between 1101 hrs and 1109 hrs, a total of 11,000 Form 34As were dumped into the "Public Portal" 🙄
But interestingly, by 10th August (a day before) at 9.56 p.m. during my tally, the IEBC Public Portal had 45,934 Form 34As and only 295 had not been uploaded? See my post below, which is also available on this timeline
Actually, IEBC in the 10th August brief (a day before the alleged "dumping" of 11,000) reported that as of 2.30 p.m.on the same day, 45,038 Form 34As were already available in the portal
So, which other Public Portal were the 11,000 Form 34As dumped a day later? Yet at the beginning of the alleged day only about 295 Forms were yet to be uploaded in the IEBC Public Portal?
Anyway, it's time for the Courts. It will be interesting to see how either side will argue their case.
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Example 10:
One of the critical things that IEBC has to come clear on is on how they calculate their % turn-out rate 😅....
See this and remember the total registered voters are 22,120,458
1. On 9th August during media briefing, IEBC through Commisioner Jualiana Cherera indicated that as of around 12.00 noon, 6,567,869 people had voted translating to a turn-out rate of 30.65%. However, that number when subjected to the total registered voters translates to 29.69% which is 0.96% less than what the Commissioner reported
2. At around 4.00 p.m. of the same day, IEBC through Commissioner Mr. Francis Wanderi reported that 12,065,803 people had voted and indicated that this translated to 56.17% turn-out. However, that number translates to 54.55% which is 1.62% less than what the Commissioner reported as the % turn-out
3. On 10th August, IEBC Chairman Chebukati reported that the turn-out % was 65.4%, but less than 20 minutes later he corrected himself and said the % turn-out was 64.6% and this translated to 14,164,561. Now, 64.6% isn't equal to the figure he gave, rather it's equal to 14,289,816; while the number of 14,164,561 which was equated to 64.6% in actually equal to 64.03%
🤷???....either IEBC was using a different denominator, and thus needs to explain how and why; or their % turn-out calculation was all wrong 🤔
...seems IEBC would in future would need to have a qualified Statistician as a Commissioner 😅
See below a statement by IEBC on 9th August towards the end of the day
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The hacking part
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Charles Hornsby is doing is part
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog