Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 13, 2022, 01:10:29 AM
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Kalenjin land closing nearly 80%
Luo Nyanza in lower mid 70s
Mt kenya in 65-70
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if there is one person who is on steroids spreading lies, rumors, guesswork, half truths and general DISINFORMATION like Russian bots it's you RV Pundit. If Ruto lost after all this it would be a real shame. It actually adds zero value.
I hereby award you TROLL OF THE SEASON AWARD. Unopposed.
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According to BBC, Ruto has opened almost a 1 million lead with almost 80% reporting (53.2). Siku sa kuwa mafukara kwa handshake brothers is around the corner. I think pundit MAOS is right.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62444316
There are two Kisumu constituencies, One Migori, two homa bays, two Mombasas, two embus, Kabete, Kepenguria, Kacheliba, One Nyandarua, two bungomas, one meru and few others almost 50/50 are still not counted and verified. It looks Raila will gain extra 100K votes when all are tallied, but with Samoei's 800K lead, there is no way old mzee will catch up. Ruto will win by extra 600K or more votes!
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how is BBC better than Citizen? The LAST updates from media portals is 49.x for both candidates - with Ruto ahead by <100k votes.
The rest is rumors and lies from either camp. Why do you feel the urge to be ahead yet Chebukati is meticulously combing through the forms?
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Check here https://elections.nation.africa/
Ruto 49.91% 6,703,493
Raila 49.41% 6,636,849
Pundit and Itumbi have been peddling rumors about Nairobi voting Ruto over Raila. Just visit NTV and see that is another pure white lie.
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Robina relax for the results trying to compare compromised Kenyan media vs reauters and BBC is a show of desperation.
The trend is showing secondly when you start seeing News like below you then realise things are thick with Azimio.
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Robina, this on Form 34B
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0dkClo8RWZFr31zc1Lq_5LIi-dLGPZYkmKI7UD7M3K3mh_1g_8aWztHISf6fRLUPzSVdfFOY2dAMm/pubhtml#
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Form 34B - about 239 have been uploaded though 6 I hear has issues.
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Charles Horsnby been also doing calculation
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog
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how is BBC better than Citizen? The LAST updates from media portals is 49.x for both candidates - with Ruto ahead by <100k votes.
The rest is rumors and lies from either camp. Why do you feel the urge to be ahead yet Chebukati is meticulously combing through the forms?
Ntv and Ktn had DP passed 50% before the compromised media stopped it to work on violent plan B. I know you know clearly that BBC is more accurate than all Kenyan media combined because they don't have a candidate in the bout. When they say DP is at 53%, take it to the bank. As such, there is no way Raila will get enough votes to pass DP's 800K lead, especially when Embu, Meru, and few places in the mountain are still pending!
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Seem Reuters have been removed. BBC has stalled. Must be gov pulling strings. Now we are 235 - just 55 forms to go - and looking at the remainder - I dont see how Raila catches up.
how is BBC better than Citizen? The LAST updates from media portals is 49.x for both candidates - with Ruto ahead by <100k votes.
The rest is rumors and lies from either camp. Why do you feel the urge to be ahead yet Chebukati is meticulously combing through the forms?
Ntv and Ktn had DP passed 50% before the compromised media stopped it to work on violent plan B. I know you know clearly that BBC is more accurate than all Kenyan media combined because they don't have a candidate in the bout. When they say DP is at 53%, take it to the bank. As such, there is no way Raila will get enough votes to pass DP's 800K lead, especially when Embu, Meru, and few places in the mountain are still pending!
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Those still pending or having issues
16 Bungoma Kanduyi 220
13 Bungoma Sirisia 217
20 Bungoma Tongaren 224
291 Diaspora
32 Embu Manyatta 63
33 Embu Runyenjes 64
39 Garissa Dadaab 30
40 Garissa Fafi 31
36 Garissa Garissa Township 27
38 Garissa Lagdera 29
47 Homa Bay Ndhiwa 250
45 Homa Bay Rangwe 248
48 Homa Bay Suba North 251
49 Homa Bay Suba South 252
54 Kajiado Kajiado East 185
55 Kajiado Kajiado West 186
83 Kiambu Kabete 119
91 Kilifi Ganze 15
89 Kilifi Kaloleni 13
87 Kilifi Kilifi North 11
100 Kisii Bomachoge Borabu 263
99 Kisii South Mugirango 262
108 Kisumu Kisumu West 239
113 Kisumu Nyakach 244
124 Kwale Matuga 9
149 Mandera Mandera East 43
148 Mandera Mandera South 42
157 Meru Igembe North 53
159 Meru Tigania East 55
171 Migori Kuria East 260
167 Migori Suna West 256
174 Mombasa Kisauni 3
177 Mombasa Mvita 6
186 Nairobi City Dagoretti North 275
196 Nairobi City Embakasi East 285
193 Nairobi City Embakasi South 282
188 Nairobi City Langata 277
200 Nairobi City Starehe 289
185 Nairobi City Westlands 274
219 Narok Kilgoris 177
221 Narok Narok North 179
223 Narok Narok South 181
224 Narok Narok West 182
228 Nyamira Borabu 273
226 Nyamira West Mugirango 271
233 Nyandarua Ndaragwa 93
252 Taita Taveta Voi 26
255 Tana River Bura 20
253 Tana River Garsen 18
263 Trans Nzoia Cherangany 140
262 Trans Nzoia Kiminini 139
279 Vihiga Luanda 214
277 Vihiga Sabatia 212
285 Wajir Eldas 37
281 Wajir Wajir North 33
286 Wajir Wajir South 38
289 West Pokot Kacheliba 131
287 West Pokot Kapenguria 129
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No County Cont Analysis
186 Nairobi City Dagoretti North 50 50 BIG
196 Nairobi City Embakasi East 50 50 BIG
193 Nairobi City Embakasi South 50 50 BIG
188 Nairobi City Langata 50 50 BIG
200 Nairobi City Starehe 50 50 BIG
185 Nairobi City Westlands 50 50 BIG
54 Kajiado Kajiado East 50-50 BIG
55 Kajiado Kajiado West 50-50 BIG
255 Tana River Bura 50-50 SMALL
253 Tana River Garsen 50-50 SMALL
285 Wajir Eldas 50-50 SMALL
281 Wajir Wajir North 50-50 SMALL
286 Wajir Wajir South 50-50 SMALL
291 Diaspora 50-50 SMALL
219 Narok Kilgoris 50-50 SMALL
39 Garissa Dadaab 50-50 SMALL
40 Garissa Fafi 50-50 SMALL
36 Garissa Garissa Township 50-50 SMALL
38 Garissa Lagdera 50-50 SMALL
47 Homa Bay Ndhiwa RAILA BIG
45 Homa Bay Rangwe RAILA BIG
48 Homa Bay Suba North RAILA BIG
49 Homa Bay Suba South RAILA BIG
108 Kisumu Kisumu West RAILA BIG
113 Kisumu Nyakach RAILA BIG
167 Migori Suna West RAILA BIG
124 Kwale Matuga RAILA SMALL
149 Mandera Mandera East RAILA SMALL
148 Mandera Mandera South RAILA SMALL
91 Kilifi Ganze RAILA SMALL
89 Kilifi Kaloleni RAILA SMALL
87 Kilifi Kilifi North RAILA SMALL
100 Kisii Bomachoge Borabu RAILA SMALL
99 Kisii South Mugirango RAILA SMALL
174 Mombasa Kisauni RAILA SMALL
177 Mombasa Mvita RAILA SMALL
221 Narok Narok North RAILA SMALL
228 Nyamira Borabu RAILA SMALL
226 Nyamira West Mugirango RAILA SMALL
252 Taita Taveta Voi RAILA SMALL
279 Vihiga Luanda RAILA SMALL
32 Embu Manyatta RUTO BIG
33 Embu Runyenjes RUTO BIG
83 Kiambu Kabete RUTO BIG
157 Meru Igembe North RUTO BIG
159 Meru Tigania East RUTO BIG
233 Nyandarua Ndaragwa RUTO BIG
223 Narok Narok South RUTO BIG
263 Trans Nzoia Cherangany RUTO BIG
287 West Pokot Kapenguria RUTO SMALL
171 Migori Kuria East RUTO SMALL
16 Bungoma Kanduyi RUTO SMALL
13 Bungoma Sirisia RUTO SMALL
20 Bungoma Tongaren RUTO SMALL
224 Narok Narok West RUTO SMALL
262 Trans Nzoia Kiminini RUTO SMALL
277 Vihiga Sabatia RUTO SMALL
289 West Pokot Kacheliba RUTO SMALL
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I dont see any much change - Raila best is to clawback 50-100K votes - maybe 0.5%
So we likely end up at 52 versus 47 if not 53 versus 46 with 1% for others
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I dont see any much change - Raila best is to clawback 50-100K votes - maybe 0.5%
So we likely end up at 52 versus 47 if not 53 versus 46 with 1% for others
It will be 50.5 % , not the 52% we thought. The Reuters and BBC numbers were fake after further investigation. Real numbers show they are neck and neck but DP will cross 50% + about 57000 votes only.
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Okay - I see Itumbi saying that - that is based on Form 34A right. But Form 34B - that these guys are using to compute are showing it's bigger.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0dkClo8RWZFr31zc1Lq_5LIi-dLGPZYkmKI7UD7M3K3mh_1g_8aWztHISf6fRLUPzSVdfFOY2dAMm/pubhtml#
What is primary document Chebukati will use - Form 34As right? or Form 34B
It will be 50.5 % , not the 52% we thought. The Reuters and BBC numbers were fake after further investigation. Real numbers show they are neck and neck but DP will cross 50% + about 57000 votes only.
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Okay - I see Itumbi saying that - that is based on Form 34A right. But Form 34B - that these guys are using to compute are showing it's bigger.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0dkClo8RWZFr31zc1Lq_5LIi-dLGPZYkmKI7UD7M3K3mh_1g_8aWztHISf6fRLUPzSVdfFOY2dAMm/pubhtml#
What is primary document Chebukati will use - Form 34As right? or Form 34B
It will be 50.5 % , not the 52% we thought. The Reuters and BBC numbers were fake after further investigation. Real numbers show they are neck and neck but DP will cross 50% + about 57000 votes only.
I take my words back. After further verification, I see BBC website is legit. The numbers they have is around 52.9 but seem stuck. Had to double check BBC.CO.UK VS BBC.COM. It is the same! so what they have must be good. It looks like what is on form 34Bs
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Yes I think primary document is form 34B that will generate form 34C - but has to be verified against form 34A.
I am suspecting that folks did few mistakes when they were entering form 34As - as the forms came randomly
Anyway small win will send us back to supreme court.
Large win is good.
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Yes I think primary document is form 34B that will generate form 34C - but has to be verified against form 34A.
I am suspecting that folks did few mistakes when they were entering form 34As - as the forms came randomly
Anyway small win will send us back to supreme court.
Large win is good.
Have you interrogated this document to see if at least the numbers are matching with 34B from IEBC portal? I h'm getting skeptical of everything because fake new is spreading so thick and first. Chebukati seem to be the only person we have to wait for.
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Yes fake news are all over
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My understanding is that the uploaded 34As are valid but the 34Bs have major problems and so are being done fresh at Bomas to match the 34As which are the primary unalterable documents (thanks to the Constitution and Maina Kiai taking the question to the High Court in 2017, thus decentralizing thievery to the 46,000+ stations and making it that more difficult). These re-done 34Bs are what Chebukati is announcing. So those doing math with the 34Bs on the portal will have wrong figures since some of them are off.
Explains the difference btw West/BBC and the Kenyan media figures, I guess, since the former have only been using the 34Bs on the portal. If you don't want to wait for Chebukati's declared figures, then you need to have done the 34As in order to know the eventual result before Chebukati.
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The standard has I think close to reality..yes it will barely above the line https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/2022elections/
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My understanding is that the uploaded 34As are valid but the 34Bs have major problems and so are being done fresh at Bomas to match the 34As which are the primary unalterable documents (thanks to the Constitution and Maina Kiai taking the question to the High Court in 2017, thus decentralizing thievery to the 46,000+ stations and making it that more difficult). These re-done 34Bs are what Chebukati is announcing. So those doing math with the 34Bs on the portal will have wrong figures since some of them are off.
Explains the difference btw West/BBC and the Kenyan media figures, I guess, since the former have only been using the 34Bs on the portal. If you don't want to wait for Chebukati's declared figures, then you need to have done the 34As in order to know the eventual result before Chebukati.
I doubt the mistakes would be material... unless they are fake forms which doesn't look unlikely...at least six have issues....but generally I expect the maths to converge...
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I took time to compare few and I found figures that would not thread the needle. Typo errors that are not significant! I can now sleep after hours of consuming hearth-shuttering fake news. DP will emerge on top no matter how many times they recount! 50%+ over 200,000!