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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on November 17, 2014, 09:36:54 AM

Title: SGR to raise GDP
Post by: RV Pundit on November 17, 2014, 09:36:54 AM
Look Jubilee will beat Kibaki on GDP

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Initial-work-on-new-rail-to-raise-GDP-6-9pc-in-2015/-/539552/2524366/-/lvew5ez/-/index.html
Title: Re: SGR to raise GDP
Post by: vooke on November 17, 2014, 05:19:46 PM
Are they sure?
Look Jubilee will beat Kibaki on GDP

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Initial-work-on-new-rail-to-raise-GDP-6-9pc-in-2015/-/539552/2524366/-/lvew5ez/-/index.html
Title: Re: SGR to raise GDP
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 17, 2014, 05:48:05 PM
GDP measures and calculations always throw me for a loop. 

Do they mean SGR will contribute 6.9% growth in GDP by itself, or  do they mean the total GDP growth will be 6.9% because of SGR?  Is this stuff based on the rebased GDP?
Title: Re: SGR to raise GDP
Post by: MOON Ki on November 17, 2014, 06:11:06 PM
GDP measures and calculations always throw me for a loop. 

Do they mean SGR will contribute 6.9% growth in GDP by itself, or  do they mean the total GDP growth will be 6.9% because of SGR?  Is this stuff based on the rebased GDP?

No.   The total GDP is projected to go up by 5.3% this year, and optimistic projections for 2015 have been around 5.8%.   The figure just quoted is now 6.9%; so at best the claim would that the SGR work will contribute 1.1%.   

But that is just the IMF.   Remember that in June the World Bank revised (downwards) its growth rates for Kenya: to 5.1% this year and 5.2% next year, citing insecurity and problems with tourism.   
Title: Re: SGR to raise GDP
Post by: RV Pundit on November 17, 2014, 07:33:12 PM
It quite simple. Kenya economy is about 55b usd or 4.5 trillion kshs. Chinese are investing 370B on railway for next 3yrs. That is about 4B USD or maybe 1B per annum...some of it will go back to china (in terms of expat salaries bla bla). Think 1% of 55B..is about 0.5B...so this SGR will add anything upward of 1-2% to the GDP.
Title: Re: SGR to raise GDP
Post by: Olekoima on November 18, 2014, 01:13:12 PM
It quite simple. Kenya economy is about 55b usd or 4.5 trillion kshs. Chinese are investing 370B on railway for next 3yrs. That is about 4B USD or maybe 1B per annum...some of it will go back to china (in terms of expat salaries bla bla). Think 1% of 55B..is about 0.5B...so this SGR will add anything upward of 1-2% to the GDP.

A good explanation, thanks.