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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 06:46:51 AM

Title: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 06:46:51 AM
I had predicted 5% drop but it appears the turnout is even higher than I modelled.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 06:51:10 AM
Ruto and Martha have voted at six.
Rigathi to vote.
Raila will likely vote at 10ish in Kibera.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 07:09:15 AM
Apart from a few late polling stations - generally voting going on smoothly
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on August 09, 2022, 08:04:50 AM
Looks like the turnout is very high. I see Narok lines are insane with many okuyu voters in lines. I thought huko ni Maa and Kalenjin territory!
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on August 09, 2022, 08:06:24 AM
Quote from: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 06:46:51 AM
I had predicted 5% drop but it appears the turnout is even higher than I modelled.
Hey Guru, habari. What does the high turnout mean? It looks like mtajua haujui is real!
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 08:38:30 AM
Yes high turnout will give Ruto 2% boost. Uhuru was hoping for low turnout in Mt kenya. Let see - rigging look hard - at polling station. Maybe btw polling station and chebukati - they will try to introduce fake form results.
Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on August 09, 2022, 08:06:24 AM
Hey Guru, habari. What does the high turnout mean? It looks like mtajua haujui is real!
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 08:51:10 AM
Muranga - report saying low turnout
https://t.co/caRepi8Hd2
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: gout on August 09, 2022, 09:09:57 AM
The weather is quite cold. As it gets warmer by the day and people pressure each other the turnout will be impressive.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on August 09, 2022, 10:15:24 AM
Meru and Tharaka nithi turnout low. It appears afternoon section will be critical...
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 10:21:25 AM
Yes so far low turnout
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: yulemsee on August 09, 2022, 11:51:13 AM
The perceived low turnout could be as a result of more polling stations
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on August 09, 2022, 12:41:51 PM
Quote from: yulemsee on August 09, 2022, 11:51:13 AM
The perceived low turnout could be as a result of more polling stations
Well said...lines picking up looking good
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 12:53:24 PM
So far Rift Valley (Kalenjin) seem to have highest turnout.
Mt kenya turnout is subdued.
Coast I hear is disaster

But so far with KIEMS kit working generally - and without Manual - the top up rigging may not happen.

So the next step is to prepare for results transmission.

I hope Uhuru isnt planning mockey games with Safaricom & Airtel.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on August 09, 2022, 01:01:08 PM
Kiems kit during test trials work normal, but during elections, they tend to fail. Technology doesn't work like that; it must be human intervention at work.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on August 09, 2022, 01:05:28 PM
Quote from: gout on August 09, 2022, 09:09:57 AM
The weather is quite cold. As it gets warmer by the day and people pressure each other the turnout will be impressive.
No low turnout. only few polling stations with low turnout. I saw Ruiru and Murang'a poling stations with snake lines. With over 46000 polling stations. 20 million can vote in a 7 hour window easily!
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 01:11:46 PM
So with 5hours - IEBC I hear are reporting 30% voter turn out.
Normally people turn up in the early morning - those who have other things to do in the day

Women mostly turn  up after cooking lunch - they walk as pack as least in Kalenjinland- so generally 2-3pm is where lines are the longest.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on August 09, 2022, 01:34:07 PM
In Meru its picking up long lines forming apparently people waiting for MCA and MPs to buy them :)
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 01:42:56 PM
So far only few polling stations have been allowed to vote manual - that 200- about 100,000K votes only
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: gout on August 09, 2022, 01:43:48 PM
Looks old people and manual labourers need to have their biometrics confirmed a few months before elections. The elections audit should  have picked why kits fail for older people na watu wa mjengo. It is obvious. 
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 01:45:49 PM
They get identified with ID - KIEMS kit has search function.
Problem is when it completely failed or messed up - like mix up - where Kakamega kit end up in Machakos.
Quote from: gout on August 09, 2022, 01:43:48 PM
Looks old people and manual labourers need to have their biometrics confirmed a few months before elections. The elections audit should  have picked why kits fail for older people na watu wa mjengo. It is obvious. 
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 01:46:53 PM

Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 01:52:02 PM
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 02:32:51 PM
You are obviously projecting what your wishes are and want to see. You are over-anxious.... relax!

The turnout has been generally low compared to 2017, even 2012....

As I said a couple of days ago and am now certain of this, prepare for Baba's Presidency. By this midnight we will all but have confirmed with how the votes streaming in will trend.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2022, 02:46:10 PM
In 7 hours time utakuwa na stress

Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 02:32:51 PM
You are obviously projecting what your wishes are and want to see. You are over-anxious.... relax!

The turnout has been generally low compared to 2017, even 2012....

As I said a couple of days ago and am now certain of this, prepare for Baba's Presidency. By this midnight we will all but have confirmed with how the votes streaming in will trend.

Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 02:55:16 PM
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 03:04:16 PM
Niko hapa hapa... I am more than sure.

Unlike you guys who are already shitting in sorry, soiling 😊😂😂 your pants, I am very very relaxed.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2022, 02:46:10 PM
In 7 hours time utakuwa na stress

Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 02:32:51 PM
You are obviously projecting what your wishes are and want to see. You are over-anxious.... relax!

The turnout has been generally low compared to 2017, even 2012....

As I said a couple of days ago and am now certain of this, prepare for Baba's Presidency. By this midnight we will all but have confirmed with how the votes streaming in will trend.

Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 03:13:43 PM
I see you Azimio folks are hoping for low turnout in Mt kenya alone -  there still 1.40hrs. Tulieni
Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 03:04:16 PM
Niko hapa hapa... I am more than sure.

Unlike you guys who are already shitting in sorry, soiling 😊😂😂 your pants, I am very very relaxed.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2022, 02:46:10 PM
In 7 hours time utakuwa na stress

Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 02:32:51 PM
You are obviously projecting what your wishes are and want to see. You are over-anxious.... relax!

The turnout has been generally low compared to 2017, even 2012....

As I said a couple of days ago and am now certain of this, prepare for Baba's Presidency. By this midnight we will all but have confirmed with how the votes streaming in will trend.

Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 03:40:41 PM
Luo Nyanza turnout doesnt look good either - as it 2 - it was 50% in Kisumu. Normally Raila rig with manual register - so Azimio should worry about that.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 03:54:50 PM
Well, may have to scratch my earlier assertions. Seems like “midro” class in Nairobi opted to vote in the afternoon. Many long queues at polling stations.

Just walked to my polling station, KTTC (UN Avenue), and long queues there.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 04:04:10 PM
Look like UDA are on top of things.

Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 04:08:35 PM
Yeap voting will continue until six in Nairobi as those already in the line must vote. In rural places...I think lines should be over in the next one hour.

Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 03:54:50 PM
Well, may have to scratch my earlier assertions. Seems like “midro” class in Nairobi opted to vote in the afternoon. Many long queues at polling stations.

Just walked to my polling station, KTTC (UN Avenue), and long queues there.
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 04:11:42 PM
Well, this is as at 4:00pm... one hour to close of polling; surely you would expect 70% turnout by this time to match last time’s kumira kumira turnout, right? 🤷🏿???

Quote from: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 04:04:10 PM
Look like UDA are on top of things.

Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2022, 04:16:02 PM
I expect 70% national turnout - around 73% in entire mt kenya. So I think we are still on course - because of last minute rush - I see them hitting 70%. Let see if Kalenjin and Luos will hit 80%.
Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 04:11:42 PM
Well, this is as at 4:00pm... one hour to close of polling; surely you would expect 70% turnout by this time to match last time’s kumira kumira turnout, right? 🤷🏿???
Title: Re: Voting day - 6am to 5pm - turnout high
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 09, 2022, 05:00:37 PM
in a family of 6 only one person voted. this replicated all over central. voter apathy is real. ruto should have employed a better get out to vote machinery in central. his candidates failed him they went quite and failed to mobilize.