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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:06 PM

Title: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:06 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:35:16 AM
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.

Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.

I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on July 29, 2022, 05:03:25 AM
Quote from: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:35:16 AM
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.

Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.

I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
You are day dreaming. Raila's NASA strongholds of western and coast have shifted to Ruto. About 2.5 million votes are out of Raila's hands. If He get 1.5 million mountain votes, which I doubt, he will be short almost 2 million to catch Ruto. The only way Raila will be a threat to Ruto's massive nationwide support is if he manages to hit 55% in the mountain. Anything under 50% is kaput! Ruto is wildly popular in Kenya!
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Nowayhaha on July 29, 2022, 05:36:29 AM

The same self deceit you had in 2013. eti Kalenjins supported Raila in 2007 so its his stronghold in 2013 . You saw the outcome and the same lies you were peddling in 2017 eti there is a Rift in Rift Valley.
Railas hate in GEMA land is so engrained that it will take centuries to do away with it.
In Coast expect Ruto win in all counties expect Mombasa and he will do a 50/50 in Kilifi and Taita Taveta.
In Western Bungoma and Transzoia is gone expect fireworks in Vihiga and Kakamega. Busia is more of a Luo County
Ukambani Uhuru got les than 20% Previously .Ruto will improve on that getting atound 35%.
In GEMA even in Kirinyaga where Karua comes from they dont want anything to do with Raila. That name is a taboo in GEMA land. 

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:35:16 AM
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.

Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.

I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: RV Pundit on July 29, 2022, 06:13:14 AM
Mombasa is flipping and ukambani is flipping.. Raila is facing huge loss..Ruto numbers trending towards 60 percent.Raila will not get 40 percent.People have tasted blood
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:28:06 PM
Strategy, strategy.... Quality over Quantity!

To understand the difference between quality and quantity, if we assume that WSR has gained 20% more than what Jubilee got in Bungoma, Kwale, Tana River, Mombasa. Total registered votes 2m

RAO has gained 20% more in Mt Kenya than he did in 2017. Total registered votes 5.5m

In Nairobi, RAO will inherit half of Uhurus vote base in addition to his traditional base thus another 20%gain in Nairobi... Total registered voters 3m. Baba has always been the king of Nairobi and this time round the gap will be even wider.

Do you really see a path to victory for WsR??

At this very last dash to the finish line, it is over; no wonder most of your elite twitter bloggers Dr. Ndii & Ahmednassir have turned into abusing people left right and centre.

Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on July 29, 2022, 05:03:25 AM
Quote from: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:35:16 AM
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.

Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.

I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
You are day dreaming. Raila's NASA strongholds of western and coast have shifted to Ruto. About 2.5 million votes are out of Raila's hands. If He get 1.5 million mountain votes, which I doubt, he will be short almost 2 million to catch Ruto. The only way Raila will be a threat to Ruto's massive nationwide support is if he manages to hit 55% in the mountain. Anything under 50% is kaput! Ruto is wildly popular in Kenya!
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:29:55 PM
SEE my response to RvHH above 👆🏽👆🏽👆🏽

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 29, 2022, 05:36:29 AM

The same self deceit you had in 2013. eti Kalenjins supported Raila in 2007 so its his stronghold in 2013 . You saw the outcome and the same lies you were peddling in 2017 eti there is a Rift in Rift Valley.
Railas hate in GEMA land is so engrained that it will take centuries to do away with it.
In Coast expect Ruto win in all counties expect Mombasa and he will do a 50/50 in Kilifi and Taita Taveta.
In Western Bungoma and Transzoia is gone expect fireworks in Vihiga and Kakamega. Busia is more of a Luo County
Ukambani Uhuru got les than 20% Previously .Ruto will improve on that getting atound 35%.
In GEMA even in Kirinyaga where Karua comes from they dont want anything to do with Raila. That name is a taboo in GEMA land. 

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:35:16 AM
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.

Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.

I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Title: Re: How did GEMA fall in love with Ruto. There is Ruto Euphoria in GEMA
Post by: RV Pundit on July 29, 2022, 01:59:27 PM
Remember you had 1.5M gap btw NASA and Jubilee - or almost 10%
Gaining Uhuru 30% of Mt kenya - gives you that 1.5m - about 9% (Entire GEMA population is 23% - but voting power is 28%).
VERY BRILLIANT STRATEGY upto that point.
You're playing NECK TO NECK with Ruto.
....

BUT BUT BUT your forget one thing.
......

Now every vote Raila loses - is Ruto winning margin - your own BUKUSU are the ones handing Ruto PORK.

They are going to give Ruto more than 0.5M votes from Bungoma-Tranzoia-Kakamega and diaspora.

Next Coast will add Ruto another 0.5m.

Next Ukambani will add Ruto 0.3m.

Ruto might underperform Raila slighly in Gusii. I think their cousins the Maragoli will balance out.

You see that is how you lose election.

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:28:06 PM
Strategy, strategy.... Quality over Quantity!

To understand the difference between quality and quantity, if we assume that WSR has gained 20% more than what Jubilee got in Bungoma, Kwale, Tana River, Mombasa. Total registered votes 2m

RAO has gained 20% more in Mt Kenya than he did in 2017. Total registered votes 5.5m

In Nairobi, RAO will inherit half of Uhurus vote base in addition to his traditional base thus another 20%gain in Nairobi... Total registered voters 3m. Baba has always been the king of Nairobi and this time round the gap will be even wider.

Do you really see a path to victory for WsR??

At this very last dash to the finish line, it is over; no wonder most of your elite twitter bloggers Dr. Ndii & Ahmednassir have turned into abusing people left right and centre.

Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on July 29, 2022, 05:03:25 AM
Quote from: Pragmatic on July 29, 2022, 01:35:16 AM
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.

Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.

I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 11:45:58 PM
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 28, 2022, 11:39:15 PM
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.

Quote from: Nowayhaha on July 28, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
You are day dreaming. Raila's NASA strongholds of western and coast have shifted to Ruto. About 2.5 million votes are out of Raila's hands. If He get 1.5 million mountain votes, which I doubt, he will be short almost 2 million to catch Ruto. The only way Raila will be a threat to Ruto's massive nationwide support is if he manages to hit 55% in the mountain. Anything under 50% is kaput! Ruto is wildly popular in Kenya!