Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 16, 2022, 08:23:17 AM
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He is getting there..my model worse for Ruto is 53 percent and best 55 percent...so now looking like 54 percent versus 45 percent for Raila with wajackoyah at 1 percent http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog
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I think Charles mainly uses the traditional tribal model that may have been accurate before 2022. I believe many Kenyans will move away from tribal voting this time because of the Economy and severe hate for the drunkard! Also, from 2008-to the present, DP made serious investments in churches, madrasas, women groups, Bodabodas, Mama mbogas, Jua Kali folks, Elders, youth groups, and other groups over Kenya. I think those groups that have been touched by DP's billions will defy traditional tribal voting. For instance, these women and many other Kamba women impacted by Ruto through unlimited donations through his Samoei Ruto foundation may vote WIPER down the ballot Still, on the primary ballot, they will NEVER miss voting the hand that giveth! DP has massive support deep in villages and slums because of the money he donates to the needy yearly.
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Yes even online on Twitter n Facebook Ruto is now clear winner now at 58-60 percent..we might be grossly understimating Ruto win. This hustlers revolution sio mchezo.
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Ruto will win by 56%
Uhuru did 54% in 2017 with Kenyattas family tag with him. Ruto without this burden will peform way better. Increasimg his tally in Coast and Western.
For those who dont know why Uhuru was peformin badly in coast listed to Aisha Jumwa below.
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It depends on mt Kenya..how much Raila will chip away and the turnout..so Ruto likely to improve marginally from 2017 because Mt Kenya won't be as committed as they were...so lots of new support will cover the gema deficit
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Going closer to the elections those who were thinking ufool had a magical card are waking up to reality. It will be a white wash. 60%+
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For Ruto to score 60 percent - he need to perform at these level - improbable but not impossible
COUNTY PROJ.TURNOUT RAILA(%) RUTO% OTHERS(%)
COAST - 50-50 with Raila - I have seen some opinion polls saying so - most have Raila with slight edge - so probable.
MOMBASA 55 49 49 2
KWALE 60 35 64 1
KILIFI 60 50 49 1
TANZ RIVER 55 49 50 1
LAMU 60 50 49 1
TAILA TAVETA 55 54 45 1
Northern - Opinion polls swing widly here - some have Ruto ahead - others Raila ahead - I tend to thing Ruto will beat Raila in pastoralist region.
GARISSA 55 45 54 1
WAJIR 55 45 54 1
MANDERA 55 45 54 1
MARSABIT 55 45 54 1
ISIOLO 55 45 54 1
Mt Kenya East - generally seen Mizani & IRS with heavy sample - saying this is possible. Meru is big asterik.
MERU 80 16 83 1
THARAKA-NITHI 80 11 88 1
EMBU 80 11 88 1
Ukambani - this wild card of this election - generally unhappy with Raila treatment of Kalonzo/Sonko - vibe I am getting 50-50 or shock results probable.
KITUI 75 54 45 1
MACHAKOS 75 53 46 1
MAKUENI 75 50 49 1
Mt Kenya West - Central province - opinion polls with large sample are showing 80 versus 20 split - but if Uhuru doesnt do something it could be disaster like this. Maybe - 16% in Nyeri/Nyandarua/Muranga - 26% in Kirinyanga and Kiambu.
NYANDARUA 80 16 83 1
NYERI 80 16 83 1
KIRINYAGA 80 26 73 1
MURANG'A 80 16 83 1
KIAMBU 80 26 73 1
North Rift - General expect Ruto to do very well including Turkana, West Pokot and of course kalenjin - very likely
TURKANA 60 30 69 1
WEST POKOT 70 19 80 1
SAMBURU 60 45 54 1
TRANS NZOIA 78 36 63 1
UASIN GISHU 83 11 88 1
ELGEYO/MARAKWET 83 5 94 1
NANDI 83 5 94 1
BARINGO 83 10 89 1
Central rift - again Ruto has solid figures here because Kalenjin/Kikuyu makes significant numbers - Maasai are 50-50 split btw Raila and Ruto. So these are solid figures.
LAIKIPIA 75 25 74 1
NAKURU 75 20 78 2
NAROK 70 40 59 1
KAJIADO 70 45 54 1
South Mid West RV - Kipsigis - done deal.
KERICHO 83 5 94 1
BOMET 83 5 94 1
Western - Raila has small edge in Kakamega; MaDVD Maragoli give Ruto small edge in Vihiga; Bungoma is being swept and Busia Raila has a lead.
- Very solid probable figures
KAKAMEGA 68 51 45 4
VIHIGA 68 44 53 3
BUNGOMA 70 23 74 3
BUSIA 65 63 34 3
Luo Nyanza - Solid figures - I expect the two Kuria const to vote mostly Ruto in Migori.
SIAYA 83 97 2 1
KISUMU 83 96 2 2
HOMA BAY 83 97 2 1
MIGORI 83 79 19 2
Gusii - again opinion polls shows these figures are probable.
KISII 65 58 40 2
NYAMIRA 65 53 45 2
Nairobi - this is where I think polls are getting wrong - showing Raila has huge lead - same problem in 2017 and 2013 - and when final results came - it was very close - Raila has 52 versus 48. I think Ruto hustler message appeals most to poor urban and peri-urban - and they are just shy to reveal their intentions to vote Ruto to pollsters.
NAIROBI CITY 70 50 48 2
If these kinds of figures pan out - Ruto will score 60%.
Going closer to the elections those who were thinking ufool had a magical card are waking up to reality. It will be a white wash. 60%+
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Who have the most demotivated? Hasoras and baba's diehards are fired up! Ufool's supporters are ones likely to sit out of the elections - which side will they affect?
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There has to be deliberate turnout game. I think Ruto has something planned for this. There has to be teams combing villages - and rallying them to vote. For Ruto he has to do it in Mt kenya and RV - his core.
Raila is scrambling to get agents, tallying center and all the stuff because they are waking to find there is no deep state or system.
Who have the most demotivated? Hasoras and baba's diehards are fired up! Ufool's supporters are ones likely to sit out of the elections - which side will they affect?