Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 15, 2022, 10:49:59 AM
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This Muranga done the same time - TIFA has one candidate scoring 5% - same candidate in Mizani 42% - for women rep.
For gov - Jamleck leading in Mizani with 33% - in TIFA trailing badly with 11%. Kangata leads with 58%.MIzani says he is at 25%.
Ni kama drama ni kama vindio.
DATA COLLECTED SAME TIME ALMOST SAME SAMPLE SIZE
Finally on my articles on the Opinion Polls.
Below are poll results for Murang’a County, specifically Gubernatorial and Women Rep! I focus on results released by Mizani Africa and TIFA!
Both surveys done at the same time, the Mizani poll was done between 23rd and 27th June and TIFA Poll was done between 25th and 26th June (both results are publicly available)
The Mizani had a margin of error of 3% while the TIFA poll had a 4.9% margin of error! So, the sample size in both polls were good
Let’s look at the results
In the Women Rep race, Jubilee’s Waithira Muithirania had a 42.2% rating in the Mizani Poll, and even with a 3% margin of error, the low it could go was 39% or a high of 45%
Come TIFA and the result show the same candidate with a 5% rating, which could as well go to a low of almost 0% and a high of 10%
Statistically, both estimates are very different! Interesting!
But wait, both surveys were done at the same time, and in the same population! What’s the probability of this, it’s just 0.05, very low!
Same case applies to the Gubernatorial Race!
In the Mizani Poll, Jamleck Kamau of Jubilee had a 31% rating, which could be between 28% and 34%; but in the TIFA Poll, he is rated at 13% which could range between 8% and 18%
Again, both estimates are significantly different!
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Ive been telling you this for a minute but you and Robina waste yime discussing them.
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In areas where they generally agree - and agree with common sense - they have some probative value.
Ive been telling you this for a minute but you and Robina waste yime discussing them.
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In areas where they generally agree - and agree with common sense - they have some probative value.
Ive been telling you this for a minute but you and Robina waste yime discussing them.
You have now gone full circle beat around the bush but finally came to where I and Noway stand, we have always told you opinion polls are for the highest bidder FULL STOP.