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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM

Title: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM
Tranzoia looks crappy.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-natembeya-popular-candidate-in-trans-nzoia-tifa/
Title: Re: TIFA crap poll of tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:41:38 AM
Nyamira is about right
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-amos-nyaribo-most-popular-in-nyamira-governor-race-poll/
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:44:37 AM
Kisii
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:48:19 AM
Muranga - UDA zone
Muranga Irungu Kangata
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 01:57:11 PM
Well, I told you that RAO has it and Natembeya at 55% and you were busy arguing with me. My assessment/prediction is bang on within the margin of error.

Here is your “scientific” proof.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM
Tranzoia looks crappy.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-natembeya-popular-candidate-in-trans-nzoia-tifa/
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 02:04:13 PM
Here is my response.


Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 01:57:11 PM
Well, I told you that RAO has it and Natembeya at 55% and you were busy arguing with me. My assessment/prediction is bang on within the margin of error.

Here is your “scientific” proof.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM
Tranzoia looks crappy.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-natembeya-popular-candidate-in-trans-nzoia-tifa/
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 02:54:42 PM
You are following clueless fellas on twitter and believing the crap they are feeding you. Raila will perform better in Bungoma than in Trans Nzoia, and that the Bukusu is the only area of Western that he is struggling, excluding Mululu Village of course.

The other fella you like quoting is some Gordon Odongo guy....

Baba will do 60% Bungoma and 55% Trans Nzoia (mostly because of the Kalenjin rooting for KK)

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 02:04:13 PM
Here is my response.


Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 01:57:11 PM
Well, I told you that RAO has it and Natembeya at 55% and you were busy arguing with me. My assessment/prediction is bang on within the margin of error.

Here is your “scientific” proof.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM
Tranzoia looks crappy.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-natembeya-popular-candidate-in-trans-nzoia-tifa/
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 03:03:02 PM
I know my politics dude. We meet on the 9th August online if you will show up.
Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 02:54:42 PM
You are following clueless fellas on twitter and believing the crap they are feeding you. Raila will perform better in Bungoma than in Trans Nzoia, and that the Bukusu is the only area of Western that he is struggling, excluding Mululu Village of course.

The other fella you like quoting is some Gordon Odongo guy....

Baba will do 60% Bungoma and 55% Trans Nzoia (mostly because of the Kalenjin rooting for KK)

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 02:04:13 PM
Here is my response.


Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 01:57:11 PM
Well, I told you that RAO has it and Natembeya at 55% and you were busy arguing with me. My assessment/prediction is bang on within the margin of error.

Here is your “scientific” proof.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM
Tranzoia looks crappy.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-natembeya-popular-candidate-in-trans-nzoia-tifa/
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 03:17:24 PM
Am right here.... ain’t going nowhere.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 03:03:02 PM
I know my politics dude. We meet on the 9th August online if you will show up.
Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 02:54:42 PM
You are following clueless fellas on twitter and believing the crap they are feeding you. Raila will perform better in Bungoma than in Trans Nzoia, and that the Bukusu is the only area of Western that he is struggling, excluding Mululu Village of course.

The other fella you like quoting is some Gordon Odongo guy....

Baba will do 60% Bungoma and 55% Trans Nzoia (mostly because of the Kalenjin rooting for KK)
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: Nefertiti on July 14, 2022, 04:35:55 PM
Eugene seems to have more say in Trans Nzoia - unable to extend his influence to Bungoma ala Kijana.

Many polls show DAP & Natembeya doing better in TN - while FordK rules Bungoma.

Tifa seems about right.

Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 02:54:42 PM
You are following clueless fellas on twitter and believing the crap they are feeding you. Raila will perform better in Bungoma than in Trans Nzoia, and that the Bukusu is the only area of Western that he is struggling, excluding Mululu Village of course.

The other fella you like quoting is some Gordon Odongo guy....

Baba will do 60% Bungoma and 55% Trans Nzoia (mostly because of the Kalenjin rooting for KK)

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 02:04:13 PM
Here is my response.


Quote from: Pragmatic on July 14, 2022, 01:57:11 PM
Well, I told you that RAO has it and Natembeya at 55% and you were busy arguing with me. My assessment/prediction is bang on within the margin of error.

Here is your “scientific” proof.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 11:40:43 AM
Tranzoia looks crappy.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-14-natembeya-popular-candidate-in-trans-nzoia-tifa/
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: yulemsee on July 14, 2022, 05:01:07 PM
Ruto is struggling in Bukusu land, expect the other Luhyas to give him a hiding. Without Luhyas Ruto has no. avenue to pole position
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 05:06:14 PM
In your own maths even when you gave him 15 percent of Luhyas and 15 percent of Gusii - you gave him 45% of Bungoma (Kalenjin of Mt elgon and others are solid 10%)- Raila could only beat him by half a percent. All he would need is to increase turnout in Kalenjin land :) - or like he is doing - open up coast - which is looking good for him now. Mt kenya ndio hiyo imekataa Raila kata kata.

Ruto has so many paths to victory.

Quote from: yulemsee on July 14, 2022, 05:01:07 PM
Ruto is struggling in Bukusu land, expect the other Luhyas to give him a hiding. Without Luhyas Ruto has no. avenue to pole position
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 05:41:34 PM
And these kind of polls could be paid for propaganda to try shore up Azimio fortunes.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-13-moses-kuria-questions-integrity-of-tifa-polls-that-put-raila-ahead/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on July 14, 2022, 07:08:35 PM
Tranzoia has 40% Kalenjins and Gema, That means Ruto is only getting those tribes and zero Luhya? Laughable. Sponsored polls, indeed!. Lets assume Wetangula's folks will vote Raila 70% and Ruto 30%; even with that Ruto, is already past 51% in Tranzoia. I would say Bungoma is more Azimio than Trans Nzoia! Lets compare numbers in 3 weeks!
Title: Re: TIFA county opinion polls - Nyamira, Kisii, Isiolo, Muranga and Tranzoia
Post by: RV Pundit on July 14, 2022, 10:17:09 PM
On Monday TIFA released a National Opinion Poll whose sample was 1,533 and in their methodology section they indicated sample size was allocated to counties Proportionate to Population Size 😀

Murang’a County whose registered voters constitute to roughly 2.8% of total registered voters, would then be allocated a sample of about 43 (assuming PPS is applied as indicated in their methodology) 😊, and if equal allocation, sample size would be 32

The national poll as per their detailed report was conducted between 25th and 30th June 2022

Now, today, the same TIFA releases poll results for 5 counties: Murang’a, Isiolo, Kisii, Nyamira and Trans Nzoia 😀

Let's look at Murang’a

1. The sample size was 407 registered voters 🙊; remember for the national poll Murang’a had a sample of 43

2. Data collection was between 25th and 26 June 2022 😏!

3. The time frame for the County Poll corresponds with the national poll. Fair enough and very possible!

4. But again, why do two separate polls at the SAME time that provides the same information 🤔?  That is, why not use the County Data collected to inform the national sampling? Actually, the county Data is more valid due to the higher sample size

5. Both the County and National Results have different estimates for Presidential estimates? Could this be because of the sample size especially under the national poll which was small small hence a wide margin of error?

6. The 5 counties they released data today had a combined sample size of nearly 3,000 and neary double for the National Poll they released on Monday?

Anyway and as I said, some of these pollsters aim at meeting various objectives!

#DataSpeaks
#StayUpdated