Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on June 23, 2022, 07:22:06 AM
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1) What if the plane transporting the kims kit crashes
2)warehouse storing the kits gets burnt
3)Vehicle transporting the kits gets involved in an accident
4)Bandits or terrorists attack the iebc teams ferrying the iebc items
5)Violence in the polling station and iebc kits get lost.
6) The iebc system gets hacked register is bugged.
I think we need a MANUAL REGISTER.
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I am sure IEBC have thought about all those scenarios and come to conclusion that we dont need manual register.
Last time about 95% of voters were identified biometrically.
Those 5% who cant be identified - will vote semi-manually - using voter register on KIEMS kit - that will include scanning ID documents.
Those 5% are where rigging happen...in other places it rises to 10%.
Each ward will have few replacement gadget in case of a problem.
They have both offline capability.
KIEMS kit is just smartphone...a tablet.
It small system handling mere 500 records per polling stations.
IEBC will hire ICT experts to troubleshoot any problem.
IEBC will pin the manual register on every polling station 7 days before election.
But it wont be used during voting - because that is what has been found to be source of rigging.
IEBC staff can see who has not voted or not - they can collude - and tick those who didnt vote.
We saw in Mandera about 87% being biometrically identified - while 13% voted manually (rigging).
Voting remain MANUAL. You will get you paper, fill it and insert it into the ballot.
In short your deep shiet and systsem plan to rig in Luo Nyanza and NEP has been shattered.
In MOAS I will be reducing voter turnout by that 3-10% percent to remove manually assisted rigging that has been happening.
1) What if the plane transporting the kims kit crashes
2)warehouse storing the kits gets burnt
3)Vehicle transporting the kits gets involved in an accident
4)Bandits or terrorists attack the iebc teams ferrying the iebc items
5)Violence in the polling station and iebc kits get lost.
6) The iebc system gets hacked register is bugged.
I think we need a MANUAL REGISTER.
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This rigging that happened in Northern Kenya - that Chebukati just shut it's door.
As can be seen, the numbers are pretty steady and low outside Nyanza (where they were zero as no-one voted) and the old North-Eastern Province. A deep dive on North-Eastern concluded there was prima facia evidence of “top up voting” or other forms of stuffing in Eldas and Wajir West, while the results were inconclusive in Mandera North.[I have since discovered that the EU Observer Mission report found the same problem in Eldas. The EU also found several stations in Garissa where extra digits were added ton the forms, producing official results for Kenyatta several thousand votes larger than the electronic results]
You can see in NEP - almost 50% of const couldnt use finger-print biometrics - and did manual register - this is clear evidence of rigging.
(http://www.charleshornsby.com/uploads/1/1/4/7/114704363/3_2_orig.png)
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Uhuru has deliberately heavily invested in NFD - because this was his plan - to repeat the rigging he did last time - but Chebukati just killed that plan.
Almost half the 800K-1M votes in NEP that have seen very strange high turnout since 2013 are rigging.
The graph below show you percentage of voters who were no biometrically identified by the KIEMS Kit...some are high as 50%...while nationally 97% of voters were identified...and very few people dont have fingerprints.
Elsewhere in the country, though, where voting did occur despite the boycott, there was no pattern of large numbers bypassing the electronic systems – 97.2% of voters were eventually biometrically identified. In other words, the (very modest) pro-Kenyatta turnouts in October 2017 were plausible.
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“As a result of the 2017 post-election evaluation, most of the malpractices were as a result of the physical voter registers. We believe that using the digital registers will cut down these malpractices where a presiding officer has knowledge of who has not voted, their ID numbers and is therefore able to input their details in the KIEMs kits, allowing malpractices to happen,” he said then.
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Pundit when you saying NEP rigging don:'t you mean by uhuRUTO :o But you front it as a crime by Raila. It all lends credence to Raila claims he was rigged out all along. This will really be good record when you run to Koome or claim she is biased.
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This first time you're reading this?
Yes when presented with facts like Charles Horsnby did - I changed my mind.
I believe Jubilee 1.0 rigged in Mandera - those figures and turnouts were suspicious
I also believe Jubilee 2.0 rigged in NEP as can be shown in the repeat election stuffing in NEP despite no pressure to win.
Did Raila Odinga rig - YES - Luo Nyanza has been rigged - in what I call stronghold rigging - same as Kalenjin and GEMA do.
It was common knowledge that Moi use to rig by ballot stuffing in 1992 and 1997.
In 1997 - I heard Kones verbatim - telling voters to go and voter again on the 2nd day - this when ECK had been forced to extend voting for another day
Due to logistical challenges.
In 2002 I rigged for Kibaki I think 5 votes:) - I was IEBC clerk - and there many illeterate voters who'd come and ask where is Moi.
And I would show them Kibaki.
Some would refuse to vote when they realize Moi was not on the ballot :)
I remember this very old woman cause a lot of drama when she realize Moi was not on the ballot.
They had bring relatives and supervisor to explain Moi term limit...bla de bla- with all party argents making sure she was not being forced :)
Eventually she refused to vote...:)
In 2005 I returned to our local primary polling station - I didnt see any rigging - but I remember people ringing bells in afternoon - I dont know if in the late hours rigging happen. Kibaki certainly thought Kalenjin had rigged the referendum...and set out to rig 2007
Now whose job is to identity and bring evidence of rigging forward? Is me, or Charles or Raila Odinga.
It's Raila Odinga job to protect his vote and to identity his rigging.
Ruto job is to ensure he is not rigged out.
And if any rigging happen he is on top - with clear evidence.
Sio Raila type where you come with long tales which is thin on evidence.
He is luckly IEBC bungled the ICT server thing so much - Supreme Court thought it was fishy.
In 2022 - both parties trust me will TRY TO RIG - and both parties WILL TRY TO PREVENT each other from rigging.
Ruto and Gachagua have the skills - definitely played key roles in Moi era rigging - Raila Oding has the backing of the state machinery.
Let see who will outrig who and who will have evidence.
IEBC job is to ensure rigging become harder and harder and harder.
Back to 2017 - I believe probably 1/3 of NEP voters we rigged - esp Mandera. That is something like 1-2%.
Pundit when you saying NEP rigging don:'t you mean by uhuRUTO :o But you front it as a crime by Raila. It all lends credence to Raila claims he was rigged out all along. This will really be good record when you run to Koome or claim she is biased.
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Let us be SPECIFIC...Point by point.
1) The voter identification is biometric (Thumb print/Face recognition)...In the case of ballot stuffing in Luo land or Kalenjin land where there are no agents from UDA and ODM respectively,What happens when the number of biometricaly identified voters do not CORRESPOND with votes cast?
2) Who is printing the ballot papers?Does GOK/Azimio and UDA have access to ballot papers which can be used for ballot stuffing?
3) Which areas is it possible to rig?UKAMABANI NYANZA RIFT VALLEY MT KENYA North Eastern?
4) If the election will be rigged through ballot stuffing?Does this mean that the election will be the most VIOLENT to ensure opposing agents in Party strongholds are kicked out?
5) Will Chebukati announce the presented results in 48HRS when the presented elections are presented?If the votes cast don't correspond with the biometric tally and opposing agents refuse to sign to the poll results at county level and polling station,What happens?What does he announce?Incase the matter is presented before supreme court,What does Koome do?
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i have read yours and Charles Hornsby "expertise" on rigging for years. Hornsby is dispassionate -- while you RV Pundit are a propagandist.
while your chameleon nature is neither new nor surprising, it is hard to tell your nonsense apart. You have a bunch of threads now on IEBC top game and that rigging is near impossible. This should make us all happy but it obvious from the endless threads and the tone that YOU ARE VERY ANXIOUS ABOUT RIGGING.
Ruto just met mzungu a few days ago and claimed Uhuru wants to rig in Raila. He fingered Mucheru et al. Before that he was in London and US with same claims. See what I mean?
So which is it: are you confident of a clean election or not? You are a way worse watermelon than Kalonzo Musyoka.
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It endless battle;
Because like every system; someone is trying to game it;
We have come far
In 1992 - it was ballot stuffing - because counting only happen in tallying center.
Then 2002 - we had huge leap - we had counting at polling stations - transparent ballot boxes.
We have had problem of ECK commissioner editing results.
We have now seperated commissioner with secretariat.
We have also made any editing outside polling station impossible
Polling statin are final - thanks to Maina Kia.
Since 2010 technology has come in to stop ballot stuffing.
Biometrics - and whole KIEMS kit.
In short it's a battle; I believe both sides will try to game the IEBC system; It upon players on both side to ensure they are top; and IEBC on top.
So yes impossible is hyperbole.
It's becoming harder and harder to rig.
i have read yours and Charles Hornsby "expertise" on rigging for years. Hornsby is dispassionate -- while you RV Pundit are a propagandist.
while your chameleon nature is neither new nor surprising, it is hard to tell your nonsense apart. You have a bunch of threads now on IEBC top game and that rigging is near impossible. This should make us all happy but it obvious from the endless threads and the tone that YOU ARE VERY ANXIOUS ABOUT RIGGING.
Ruto just met mzungu a few days ago and claimed Uhuru wants to rig in Raila. He fingered Mucheru et al. Before that he was in London and US with same claims. See what I mean?
So which is it: are you confident of a clean election or not? You are a way worse watermelon than Kalonzo Musyoka.
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The 1st control is that each polling station has max 500-700 voters;
So to rig it very hard; it's granular process;
To rig also you need areas without agents and observers and media;
You need your strongholds where everyone including IEBC staff are in community collusion or remote areas like Mandera or Turkana or West Pokot - where you can erect fake polling stations.
So those are areas where rigging will happen.
2007 Kibaki waited to rig at KICC or with RO - now it's hard because every polling station results must be submitted.
Ballot boxes - nobody really care about stuffing real ballot on boxes - they want to rig the forms - the counting.
So basically someone will get form result return - substitute with fake results forms - for each polling station.
The probably KIEMS kit will leave a digital trail of who voted; and periodically submit results;
Ultimately study this system - and at each stage - someone will try to game.
The best defence remain to protect the voter with agents by ensuring you have them almost everywhere armed with smart phones...taking pictures, videos and documenting anything that is off...so you can follow up with IEBC or in a petition.
UDA and ODM should worry about Kalenjin and Luo land - GEMA this time round will be impossible to manipulate.
KK should worry about NFD - all the remote insecure areas - are security forces colony - they can do anything - that is why Uhuru has invested heavily there
Chebukati just killed his game there by insisting on biometrics....and then digital register.
Let us be SPECIFIC...Point by point.
1) The voter identification is biometric (Thumb print/Face recognition)...In the case of ballot stuffing in Luo land or Kalenjin land where there are no agents from UDA and ODM respectively,What happens when the number of biometricaly identified voters do not CORRESPOND with votes cast?
2) Who is printing the ballot papers?Does GOK/Azimio and UDA have access to ballot papers which can be used for ballot stuffing?
3) Which areas is it possible to rig?UKAMABANI NYANZA RIFT VALLEY MT KENYA North Eastern?
4) If the election will be rigged through ballot stuffing?Does this mean that the election will be the most VIOLENT to ensure opposing agents in Party strongholds are kicked out?
5) Will Chebukati announce the presented results in 48HRS when the presented elections are presented?If the votes cast don't correspond with the biometric tally and opposing agents refuse to sign to the poll results at county level and polling station,What happens?What does he announce?Incase the matter is presented before supreme court,What does Koome do?
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The system is here
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The 1st control is that each polling station has max 500-700 voters;
So to rig it very hard; it's granular process;
To rig also you need areas without agents and observers and media;
You need your strongholds where everyone including IEBC staff are in community collusion or remote areas like Mandera or Turkana or West Pokot - where you can erect fake polling stations.
So those are areas where rigging will happen.
2007 Kibaki waited to rig at KICC or with RO - now it's hard because every polling station results must be submitted.
Ballot boxes - nobody really care about stuffing real ballot on boxes - they want to rig the forms - the counting.
So basically someone will get form result return - substitute with fake results forms - for each polling station.
The probably KIEMS kit will leave a digital trail of who voted; and periodically submit results;
Ultimately study this system - and at each stage - someone will try to game.
The best defence remain to protect the voter with agents by ensuring you have them almost everywhere armed with smart phones...taking pictures, videos and documenting anything that is off...so you can follow up with IEBC or in a petition.
UDA and ODM should worry about Kalenjin and Luo land - GEMA this time round will be impossible to manipulate.
KK should worry about NFD - all the remote insecure areas - are security forces colony - they can do anything - that is why Uhuru has invested heavily there
Chebukati just killed his game there by insisting on biometrics....and then digital register.
Let us be SPECIFIC...Point by point.
1) The voter identification is biometric (Thumb print/Face recognition)...In the case of ballot stuffing in Luo land or Kalenjin land where there are no agents from UDA and ODM respectively,What happens when the number of biometricaly identified voters do not CORRESPOND with votes cast?
2) Who is printing the ballot papers?Does GOK/Azimio and UDA have access to ballot papers which can be used for ballot stuffing?
3) Which areas is it possible to rig?UKAMABANI NYANZA RIFT VALLEY MT KENYA North Eastern?
4) If the election will be rigged through ballot stuffing?Does this mean that the election will be the most VIOLENT to ensure opposing agents in Party strongholds are kicked out?
5) Will Chebukati announce the presented results in 48HRS when the presented elections are presented?If the votes cast don't correspond with the biometric tally and opposing agents refuse to sign to the poll results at county level and polling station,What happens?What does he announce?Incase the matter is presented before supreme court,What does Koome do?
BOTTOM LINE Is doctoring Results at Polling station..that's your main point.The only way you can do this is through buying of Agents and IEBC officials and using violence .
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Yes compromise agents - and iebc staff - then you can rig. I believe Raila will find himself in bigger problem because generally he has never been able to manage agents better. Will Uhuru have the time to do this for Raila - evidence suggest nope - the guys he has deployed to help Raila will run away with agent money - and come d-day Azimio will find themselves without agents.
In Ruto and Gachagua - those two know how to run such stuff - Chirchir has very good system for managing agents - that report hourly on the situation on the ground.
Azimio will try to compromise UDA agents but be assured Ruto has such information - and will deploy many people to supervise agents - moving from station to station.
Violence can only work if NASA want to boycot this. Otherwise they are six ballot - MCA - President - each person want peace - if it was only presidential ballot - you can pull violence NASA tried in repeat.
BOTTOM LINE Is doctoring Results at Polling station..that's your main point.The only way you can do this is through buying of Agents and IEBC officials and using violence .
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Yes compromise agents - and iebc staff - then you can rig. I believe Raila will find himself in bigger problem because generally he has never been able to manage agents better.
Violence can only work if NASA want to boycot this. Otherwise they are six ballot - MCA - President - each person want peace - if it was only presidential ballot - you can pull violence NASA tried in repeat.
BOTTOM LINE Is doctoring Results at Polling station..that's your main point.The only way you can do this is through buying of Agents and IEBC officials and using violence .
Most of these iebc clears and presiding iebc officers are paid 1500-3000 Per day and most are students and recent graduates..while party agents are just village brokers..It's a very easy group to manipulate especially at Polling station level.Infact rigging is more easier at local level than national levels.If Azimio play their game well in Meru Ukambani Nairobi Nyanza Western areas of Busia Kakamega parts of vihiga parts of coast Lamu Mombasa some areas of kilifi kisii nyamira..they can win this things.
While doing that the most important thing as of now is ways of ensuring low turnout in Mt Kenya and Rift valley.
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Yes compromise agents - and iebc staff - then you can rig. I believe Raila will find himself in bigger problem because generally he has never been able to manage agents better. Will Uhuru have the time to do this for Raila - evidence suggest nope - the guys he has deployed to help Raila will run away with agent money - and come d-day Azimio will find themselves without agents.
In Ruto and Gachagua - those two know how to run such stuff - Chirchir has very good system for managing agents - that report hourly on the situation on the ground.
Azimio will try to compromise UDA agents but be assured Ruto has such information - and will deploy many people to supervise agents - moving from station to station.
Violence can only work if NASA want to boycot this. Otherwise they are six ballot - MCA - President - each person want peace - if it was only presidential ballot - you can pull violence NASA tried in repeat.
BOTTOM LINE Is doctoring Results at Polling station..that's your main point.The only way you can do this is through buying of Agents and IEBC officials and using violence .
If UDA will use the smartphone slow down internet slow down mpesa no money no communication buy off these clerks cook results post them...there is no way Ruto is winning thing.AM OUT.
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Both sides will try to influence agents; Remember there are already controls by KIEMS kit to make sure ballot counted doesnt not exceed cast votes in the system. This is why manual system is bad news for riggers.
But rigging can happen - with small margins.
For Ruto - KK - they need to be on top of intelligence - to know such people are planning to compromise agents - and to keep their agents details secret.
Most of these iebc clears and presiding iebc officers are paid 1500-3000 Per day and most are students and recent graduates..while party agents are just village brokers..It's a very easy group to manipulate especially at Polling station level.Infact rigging is more easier at local level than national levels.If Azimio play their game well in Meru Ukambani Nairobi Nyanza Western areas of Busia Kakamega parts of vihiga parts of coast Lamu Mombasa some areas of kilifi kisii nyamira..they can win this things.
While doing that the most important thing as of now is ways of ensuring low turnout in Mt Kenya and Rift valley.
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Both sides are working on all sort of scenarios. System I saw was based on USSD. This time they could do Whatsapp or Signal. The agents just take pictures and submit on their phones via whatsapp or signal. Something secure that is encrypted like Signal is great.
Ultimately voter protection in battle ground and remote areas is critical. It will require not just few agents - but also the public to keep an eye -until election is counted and done with.
And of course to have roving team that moves if any problem occurs.
UDA is a battle tested.
I fear for Azimio - because they might get outrigged - Ruto and Gachagua have probably the most credential for rigging starting in 1992 - dont think just being in gov give you rigging advantage :) :)
Who will win the rigging game is whoever has his ORGANISATIONAL GAME on that day. It's 48 hours national operation. Kioni or Kega cannot do it - they will take agents millions and disappear to thin air :) . Raila and his bunch of jokers cant. Uhuru and his ulevi cant.
If UDA will use the smartphone slow down internet slow down mpesa no money no communication buy off these clerks cook results post them...there is no way Ruto is winning thing.AM OUT.
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Both sides will try to influence agents; Remember there are already controls by KIEMS kit to make sure ballot counted doesnt not exceed cast votes in the system. This is why manual system is bad news for riggers.
You are going in CIRCLES.
I asked you,What will Chebukati do when the votes cast and declared don't tally with KIEMS kit?
Will he announce or order repeat or What?
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So you put 5000 instead of 500. I think KIEMS kit wont submit the results. On the paper forms...I dont know the procedure for rejection of such results.
You are going in CIRCLES.
I asked you,What will Chebukati do when the votes cast and declared don't tally with KIEMS kit?
Will he announce or order repeat or What?
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Both sides are working on all sort of scenarios. System I saw was based on USSD. This time they could do Whatsapp or Signal. The agents just take pictures and submit on their phones via whatsapp or signal.
Ultimately voter protection in battle ground and remote areas is critical. It will require not just few agents - but also the public to keep an eye -until election is counted and done with.
And of course to have roving team that moves if any problem occurs.
UDA is a battle tested.
I fear for Azimio - because they might get outrigged - Ruto and Gachagua have probably the most credential for rigging starting in 1992 - dont think just being in gov give you rigging advantage :) :)
If UDA will use the smartphone slow down internet slow down mpesa no money no communication buy off these clerks cook results post them...there is no way Ruto is winning thing.AM OUT.
Don't get EMOTIONAL.
The voting will end at 5PM in most polling stations while it may extend to night time in most polling stations like in every normal elections..The counting and signing of forms will happen at night.In UDA stronghold of GEMA and RV security will be tight.I expect Uhuru to deploy EVEN KDF and NYS to ensure rigging doesn't take place there..It will be UHURU vs GACHAGUA/RUTO...In Azimio strongholds it will be opposite.
Whoever has money to buy GOK officials agents,control phones and money networks,control security wins this election.
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So you put 5000 instead of 500.
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You've started being NONSESICAL.
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Uhuru is lameduck.
Nobody in KDF or Police is listening to him.
Half are sending their CVs to Raila; Half to Ruto;
This is a gov in transition.
And it why it easy to beat gov.
Matiangi himself is jobless and so is Kibicho - they are dusting their CVs...nobody will respect their command.
If I am PPO and Ruto has approach me to help him so he can promote me...I will not listen to Kibicho commands.
In 48 hours he will be jobless :)
I will remain PPO at worse; or be promoted by Ruto if he wins.
Ruto and Gachagua have first hand experience in security sector. They know who to talk to....be assured they are talking to many in security sector...from KDF to NIS to Prov Admin.
And secondly it will only be organizational acumen that will ensure you pull a national operation like that.
Ruto UDA nomination was just a test run. Ruto run UDA nomination like IEBC in 34 counties. That tell you the only challenge he will a have is on 13 counties. The structures on 34 counties are battle-tested.
Gachagua is also very effective and experienced - and will generally run the Mt kenya 10 counties and RV.
Ruto will handle the rest of the country.
Ultimately you need very experience hands in matters election - a team of Ruto, Gachagua and Chirchir is impossible to beat - poleni Azimio. Chirchir is chief of staff for a reason....so he can work inside gov....
Kibicho could not even roll out HUDUMA NUMBER in 5yrs. Murather-Tuju messed up Jubilee nomination it was so embarrasing.
Raila is depending on his family to run stuff.
MUTALIA.
You will be outrigged. Gachagua run Moi rigging in 1992-2002, run his brother unlikely win in Nyeri, run Uhuru KANU, run Uhuru 2017 sio Mchezo.
The least said about Ruto the better for you :)
Don't get EMOTIONAL.
The voting will end at 5PM in most polling stations while it may extend to night time in most polling stations like in every normal elections..The counting and signing of forms will happen at night.In UDA stronghold of GEMA and RV security will be tight.I expect Uhuru to deploy EVEN KDF and NYS to ensure rigging doesn't take place there..It will be UHURU vs GACHAGUA/RUTO...In Azimio strongholds it will be opposite.
Whoever has money to buy GOK officials agents,control phones and money networks,control security wins this election.
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Uhuru is lameduck.
Nobody in KDF or Police is listening to him.
Half are sending their CVs to Raila; Half to Ruto;
This is a gov in transition.
And it why it easy to beat gov.
Matiangi himself is jobless and so is Kibicho - they are dusting their CVs...nobody will respect their command.
Ruto and Gachagua have first hand experience in security sector. They know who to talk to.
And secondly it will only be organizational acumen that will ensure you pull a national operation like that.
Ruto UDA was just a test run. Ruto run UDA nomination like IEBC in 34 counties. That tell you the only challenge he will a have is on 13 counties.
Gachagua is also very effective and experienced - and will generally run the Mt kenya 10 counties and RV.
Ruto will handle the rest of the country.
Ultimately you need very experience hands in matters election - a team of Ruto, Gachagua and Chirchir is impossible to beat - poleni Azimio.
Kibicho could not even roll out HUDUMA NUMBER in 5yrs. Murather-Tuju messed up Jubilee nomination it was so embarrasing.
Raila is depending on his family to run stuff.
MUTALIA.
You will be outrigged.
Don't get EMOTIONAL.
The voting will end at 5PM in most polling stations while it may extend to night time in most polling stations like in every normal elections..The counting and signing of forms will happen at night.In UDA stronghold of GEMA and RV security will be tight.I expect Uhuru to deploy EVEN KDF and NYS to ensure rigging doesn't take place there..It will be UHURU vs GACHAGUA/RUTO...In Azimio strongholds it will be opposite.
Whoever has money to buy GOK officials agents,control phones and money networks,control security wins this election.
The only people in KDF police listening to Ruto are kalenjin.. The rest GEMA Kamba somali Jaluo Kisii Mijikenda are Azimio ndani.
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By default all Kalenjin are helping Ruto; All Luos are helping Raila;
GEMA are split; Half are helping Ruto/Gachagua; Half are with Uhuru/Kibicho.
Gov public services is heavy Kikuyu-Kalenjin - almost 25 percent kikuyu- 20 percent Kalenjin.
Luos are very few.
Already Ruto-Gachagua are ahead in the security sector.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-01-27-kikuyu-kalenjins-grossly-overrepresented-in-civil-service/
The rest align with local elite.
Luhya will be approached MaDVD - it scratch my back - I scratch yours.
In short when gov is in transition - 50-50 split in gov circles is real.
Again it probably going to be 70 pro Ruto and 30 pro Raila - because Raila doesnt know how to win power - he will sit there with Kibicho who cant even hack Kirinyanga.
Ruto in the meantime with Gachagua are probably working on security sector - making secret MOUS - giving them millions.
The only people in KDF police listening to Ruto are kalenjin.. The rest GEMA Kamba somali Jaluo Kisii Mijikenda are Azimio ndani.
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By default all Kalenjin are helping Ruto; All Luos are helping Raila;
GEMA are split; Half are helping Ruto/Gachagua; Half are with Uhuru/Kibicho.
Gov public services is heavy Kikuyu-Kalenjin - almost 25 percent kikuyu- 20 percent Kalenjin.
Luos are very few.
Already Ruto-Gachagua are ahead in the security sector.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-01-27-kikuyu-kalenjins-grossly-overrepresented-in-civil-service/
The rest align with local elite.
Luhya will be approached MaDVD - it scratch my back - I scratch yours.
In short when gov is in transition - 50-50 split in gov circles is real.
Again it probably going to be 70 pro Ruto and 30 pro Raila - because Raila doesnt know how to win power - he will sit there with Kibicho who cant even hack Kirinyanga.
Ruto in the meantime with Gachagua are probably working on security sector - making secret MOUS - giving them millions.
The only people in KDF police listening to Ruto are kalenjin.. The rest GEMA Kamba somali Jaluo Kisii Mijikenda are Azimio ndani.
Interesting...If Luos and Kikuyus couldn't do it in 1982,If Kalenjins couldn't do it in 2007/8 When they controlled 60% of everything GOK,You think Ruto can do it in 2022?
Very funny.
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How did Raila become PM against an incumbent if not for Kalenjin civil services helping him in 2007. And that was against a sitting president going for 2nd term. This was almost hopeless mission when Kalonzo bolted but still Ruto managed to get coalition gov after pinning Kibaki down.
Ruto helped Raila to get very near real power. During negotiation Ruto told him - wachie mimi I negotiate for you because you dont know how gov operates - but wapi - he collapsed in Sagana when Kibaki gave him outriders and chopper ride to Sagana - cameback with development ministries. Ruto deleted his number and called Uhuru.
Ruto and Gachagua will beat Kibicho-Matiangi in their game - because those two Huduma number imewashinda.
Right now trust me - negotiation with top guys in security forces are complete - you've seen apart from DCI that everyone folded camp. Imebaki to DCI kinoti and Kibicho. Even Matiangi has gone slow. The rest - police, DPP, name them folded camp.
You saw Kioni complaining recently that police are favouring Kenya Kwanza.
You see Gachagua talking police welfare issues.
Power cannot be taken by boys. Combination of Ruto-Gachagua is deadly in gov circles. They know gov inside out. Gachagua has been DO, Special DO that delivered unlikely win for Moi in 1992, PA of head of public services, Uhuru's PA and name it. Ruto has even more impressive CV. It's how they have made money. You have to be very sharp and lethal in gov circles to make money.
Bring your lecturers Matiangi and Kibicho - to face real power men Ruto and Gachagua - who knows all the keys in harambee and statehouse : all the panya routes;
Chain of command right now is broken. Kibicho can bark orders but those under him knows he is gone either way - Raila wont retain him - Ruto will jail him. So hapo ni ignore mode. Same with Uhuru. LAMEDUCK PHASE of leadership.
Decode this message. Deep state and System you may find now are with Ruto.
Raila ako na Kibicho in Kirinyanga trying nonsense with an extremely naive woman Martha walking around with sijui NGOs kama Bonifce Mwangi :) :) - I bet he doesnt even have single phone number of a military general or NIS director level person or police ass commissioner level. She is out there looking for NGOS friends - while Gachagua is busy with security forces.
Kibicho thinks he will order everyone as always - issue instructions in memos - and people in an election transition will listen :) - Right now everyone in civil service is on their own - there are no bosess - until august.
Interesting...If Luos and Kikuyus couldn't do it in 1982,If Kalenjins couldn't do it in 2007/8 When they controlled 60% of everything GOK,You think Ruto can do it in 2022?
Very funny.
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How did Raila become PM against an incumbent if not for Kalenjin civil services helping him in 2007. And that was against a sitting president going for 2nd term. This was almost hopeless mission when Kalonzo bolt but still Ruto managed to get coalition gov after pinning Kibaki down.
Ruto helped Raila to get very near real power. During negotiation Ruto told him - wachie mimi I negotiate for you because you dont know how gov operates - but wapi - he collapsed in Sagana when Kibaki gave him outriders and chopper ride to Sagana - cameback with development ministries. Ruto deleted his number and called Uhuru.
Ruto and Gachagua will beat Kibicho-Matiangi in their game - because those two Huduma number imewashinda.
Right now trust me - negotiation with top guys in security forces are complete - you've seen apart from DCI that everyone folded camp. Imebaki to DCI kinoti and Kibicho. Even Matiangi has gone slow. The rest - police, DPP, name them folded camp.
You saw Kioni complaining recently that police are favouring Kenya Kwanza.
You see Gachagua talking police welfare issues.
Power cannot be taken by boys. Combination of Ruto-Gachagua is deadly in gov circles. They know gov inside out. Gachagua has been DO, Special DO that delivered unlikely win for Moi in 1992, PA of head of public services, Uhuru's PA and name it. Ruto has even more impressive CV. It's how they have made money. You have to be very sharp and lethal in gov circles to make money.
Decode this message. Deep state and System you may find now are with Ruto. Raila ako na Kibicho in Kirinyanga trying nonsense.
Interesting...If Luos and Kikuyus couldn't do it in 1982,If Kalenjins couldn't do it in 2007/8 When they controlled 60% of everything GOK,You think Ruto can do it in 2022?
Very funny.
You talk alot of NONSENSE.
From 1982-2002..Moi filled GOK with Kalenjins and it is well documented in Akiwumi report that government used to financed Kalenjin warriors from 1991-1998.That is why cheramboss a senior policeman was charged at ICC.
Kibaki was president on paper in his first term.kalenjins were everywhere.Over the last 20 years.Things have changed No tribe has COMPLETE MONOPOLY of GOK be it police or military.Therefore you cannot start a war in Kenya today.
LASTLY,The object of hate in 2007 Kenya presidential election was Kikuyu/Madoadoa...In this election Ruto is begging Kikuyus to vote him.He wouldn't want Vioelbce anywhere near him.
Uhuru has Ruto by the balls.Ruto doesn't have Jaluos who know how to protest from Langata and Ngong road to Nairobi.Kikuyus don't protest.Thats their nature.
Uhuru is going to Make Raila president.Uhuru is not Kenneth Matiba.He is a BRUTAL ANIMAL who trashed yangu Kumi na ya Ruto Kumi and Ruto did nothing.
STAY WOKE.
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Right now NIS have done their maths.
They know Ruto is winning.
The next month is to deal with desperado like Kibicho and Kinoti - and you.
And that is simply by ignoring them.
Uhuru withdrew from campaigns and is doing bare minimum because 1) he is lameduck 2) he knows Ruto has won.
If you see Kibicho busy in Kirinyanga trying to campaign for people change their mind; know that is an idiot; it's too late for that;
Poor Martha is struggling bure.
Public services - remain mostly Kalenjin old timers - and Kikuyu new timers - as the majority.
Most of them are supporting Ruto.
Kibicho, Uhuru and Matiangi are lameduck now. Nobody will listen to them. They are going home.
Again dont get suprised if Raila will find himself in supreme court because he has been outrigged.
You talk alot of NONSENSE.
From 1982-2002..Moi filled GOK with Kalenjins and it is well documented in Akiwumi report that government used to financed Kalenjin warriors from 1991-1998.That is why cheramboss a senior policeman was charged at ICC.
Kibaki was president on paper in his first term.kalenjins were everywhere.Over the last 20 years.Things have changed No tribe has COMPLETE MONOPOLY of GOK be it police or military.Therefore you cannot start a war in Kenya today.
LASTLY,The object of hate in 2007 Kenya presidential election was Kikuyu/Madoadoa...In this election Ruto is begging Kikuyus to vote him.He wouldn't want Vioelbce anywhere near him.
Uhuru has Ruto by the balls.Ruto doesn't have Jaluos who know how to protest from Langata and Ngong road to Nairobi.Kikuyus don't protest.Thats their nature.
Uhuru is going to Make Raila president.Uhuru is not Kenneth Matiba.He is a BRUTAL ANIMAL who trashed yangu Kumi na ya Ruto Kumi and Ruto did nothing.
STAY WOKE.