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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 09:53:14 PM

Title: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 09:53:14 PM
YuleMzee,

Projections - try to resize the images and repost.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 10:02:08 PM
My take - we only disagree in Gusii and Western- Ruto scoring 25 percent pale ni kidogo sana. Elsewhere uko jonjo. Plus kidogo register will go up by a 1.4m.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on June 14, 2022, 10:20:58 PM
Thanks.
Will update registred voters once IEBC updates, then do final tweek
I have been generous in Kisii & Nyamira, Ruto will get less than 15%. Kakamega, Vihiga & Busia I have given him benefit of doubt.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 10:33:36 PM
Okay this because you're Kisii and know what we dont know.
UDA have strong team in both Nyamira and Kissii county.
That will win many Mps seats.
You need to understand politics and it's regional issues.
Gusii apart from when it supported Nyachae can never vote even 70 percent for one candidate. 60 percent kwanza ni ngori;
Gusii politics and life revolve around it's 8 clans.
They are like 8 sub-tribes.
Each of those clans have their leaders.
So before you start - split Gusii into 8 - then start to give pieces to each candidate.
As for Raila winning Gusii - there are like 40 percent of Gusii who are diehard Anti-Raila (Luo).

Quote from: yulemsee on June 14, 2022, 10:20:58 PM
Thanks.
Will update registred voters once IEBC updates, then do final tweek
I have been generous in Kisii & Nyamira, Ruto will get less than 15%. Kakamega, Vihiga & Busia I have given him benefit of doubt.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 10:39:57 PM
As for Kakamega - Malala and Khawale are clear front runners for governors and senate - but somehow people will give Raila 75 percent of the vote. The same with maDVD - his dependable maragoli who are 50 percent of Vihiga - will always go where maDVD go.

Those are BASICs.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 14, 2022, 10:40:44 PM
Quote from: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 10:33:36 PM
Okay this because you're Kisii and know what we dont know.
UDA have strong team in both Nyamira and Kissii county.
That will win many Mps seats.
You need to understand politics and it's regional issues.
Gusii apart from when it supported Nyachae can never vote even 70 percent for one candidate. 60 percent kwanza ni ngori;
Gusii politics and life revolve around it's 8 clans.
They are like 8 sub-tribes.
Each of those clans have their leaders.
So before you start - split Gusii into 8 - then start to give pieces to each candidate.
As for Raila winning Gusii - there are like 40 percent of Gusii who are diehard Anti-Raila (Luo).

Quote from: yulemsee on June 14, 2022, 10:20:58 PM
Thanks.
Will update registred voters once IEBC updates, then do final tweek
I have been generous in Kisii & Nyamira, Ruto will get less than 15%. Kakamega, Vihiga & Busia I have given him benefit of doubt.
I think he is right. Also Gusii here in the US are just like Luos. Very rare to find pro Ruto Gusii I mean as rare as finding a Kikuyu who is pro Raila!
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 10:47:42 PM
That is always the case. In fact last time I got Gusii totally wrong - by 20 percent in Nyamira - where Jubilee beat Raila - and in Kisii it was very close..Jubilee had 43 percent. Gusii abroad are like Gusii in Nairobi or Mombasa. Or Luhyas in Nairobi or Urban areas. They total misaligned with rural gusii where everything is clan. Outside Gusii they try to cut a united front. Internally and in Kisii they are quite a quarrelsome bunch.

I have been modelling gusii for donkey years - in 2007 - you would think ODM would win everything - same for 2013 - 2017. 2013 they didnt even win one Mp seat...

I can tell you there is almost 40 percent of Gusii who are anti-Raila - for like 20yrs (actually from 1990). Those are not about to change their voting patterns.

Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 14, 2022, 10:40:44 PM
I think he is right. Also Gusii here in the US are just like Luos. Very rare to find pro Ruto Gusii I mean as rare as finding a Kikuyu who is pro Raila!
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 11:01:10 PM
Maybe Matiangi flipped this...but even at his best...Raila has never got 70 percent of Gusii...not in 2007 or 2013.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGvW9yAXgAEQSQF?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 11:06:10 PM
Opinion polls wise - apart from Mizani - and maybe Tiffa I am not sure if anybody has released Gusii counties data - they just lumped as Nyanza

Mizani is talking of 35 versus 65 percent
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU4xdGyWIAUCrEx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 15, 2022, 03:31:21 PM
Ruto gusii tour today
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 15, 2022, 04:57:28 PM
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: Githunguri on June 15, 2022, 08:53:22 PM
Nice Job Yule msee.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 16, 2022, 06:16:11 PM
Yule Mzee - you will be wrong in Gusii - Ruto lazima apite 30 percent
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on June 20, 2022, 05:48:08 PM
Yule Mzee - Gusii Machogu - and Walter Nyambati of Nyamira are doing great. You said 15 percent :)
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on July 11, 2022, 05:23:59 PM
Final......
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on July 11, 2022, 05:56:36 PM
Umejaribu to find a path for Raila to win by 100k votes..you actually gave him 250k kalenjin votes while giving Ruto zero except in Migori where kuria will vote for him.Anyway come 9th August we will see just how wrong you got
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on July 11, 2022, 06:18:02 PM
Pin it, I may do one last tweek a week to elections. The 12% in Kalenjin land have always been there, they are the immigrants. I've since noticed that Ruto has some support in Gusii, I've also increased his nos. in Vihiga.
The delta between the winner and runners up will be around 3% maximum
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on July 11, 2022, 06:22:12 PM
Isaac got Raila 10 percent in bomet...in Nandi and related it's luhya diaspora that gave Raila numbers.Anyway it sticked until 9th.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on July 12, 2022, 09:28:55 PM
Two polls agree with me about the delta between winner and looser, it will be tight.
Tifa 3%
Radio Africa 1%
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on July 12, 2022, 09:42:28 PM
Quote from: yulemsee on July 12, 2022, 09:28:55 PM
Two polls agree with me about the delta between winner and looser, it will be tight.
Tifa 3%
Radio Africa 1%
if you apply the tight with just expected turnout Ruto zoom out..you have had to do crazy somersault to get Raila ahead by mere less than 100k votes kicheko
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on July 14, 2022, 04:56:07 PM
Tifa agrees with me in Isiolo
?t=em3s_LndFcAO73-s7Xj5vA&s=19

According to Tifa I've overstimate Ruto in Transzoia. If Tifa is right Ruto will also struggle in Bungoma
?t=0R5_rtrzOO9fJ2FsvgSRJA&s=19

Tifa agrees with me in Murang'a
?t=vEMytYoSxRdcQuCvyzMS-g&s=19
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on August 01, 2022, 05:48:03 PM
?t=onpPOuesvgZchDztFVD4dw&s=19

Baba will take it, but it will be closer than Mutahi predicts
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on August 09, 2022, 10:15:30 PM
As I predicted, its going down to the wire, winner won't cross 51%.
Had some counties wrong, but the errors appear to be compensating
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 10:55:30 PM
Indeed it is very, very tight...., neck to neck!!!

At this point I see a very narrow, a whisker, by the scruff Baba WIN.

Bungoma has really disappointed, dammnnn!!

Quote from: yulemsee on August 09, 2022, 10:15:30 PM
As I predicted, its going down to the wire, winner won't cross 51%.
Had some counties wrong, but the errors appear to be compensating
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 10, 2022, 12:56:39 PM
this our new pollster. pundit has missed pork by a mile already
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on August 10, 2022, 02:16:40 PM
Quote from: Pragmatic on August 09, 2022, 10:55:30 PM
Indeed it is very, very tight...., neck to neck!!!

At this point I see a very narrow, a whisker, by the scruff Baba WIN.

Bungoma has really disappointed, dammnnn!!

Quote from: yulemsee on August 09, 2022, 10:15:30 PM
As I predicted, its going down to the wire, winner won't cross 51%.
Had some counties wrong, but the errors appear to be compensating
Bungoma has suprised many, the Bukusu played their cards close
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: yulemsee on August 10, 2022, 02:19:05 PM
Quote from: KenyanPlato on August 10, 2022, 12:56:39 PM
this our new pollster. pundit has missed pork by a mile already
I'm humbled
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: RV Pundit on August 11, 2022, 05:09:14 PM
So far you're doing fine except you predicted a Raila win :) - sort unless that happen you still score zero.
Title: Re: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50%
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2022, 12:40:52 PM
yulemsee has wiped the floor with RV Pundit... no matter who wins.