Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on June 10, 2022, 05:38:23 PM
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Generally better than infocrap;
I doubt few figures like Kakamega- .
The opinion polls as always have huge margin of error compare to MOASS;
The plus turnout will give+- 2% difference .
Ruto's UDA zone are more reliable turnout wise.
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Generally better than infocrap;
I doubt few figures like Kakamega- .
The opinion polls as always have huge margin of error compare to MOASS;
The plus turnout will give+- 2% difference .
Ruto's UDA zone are more reliable turnout wise.
Kimsop you are losing Bigly
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There are people we cannot lose to - Raila is one of them. That is my own grandfather methali.
Kimsop you are losing Bigly
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There are people we cannot lose to - Raila is one of them. That is my own grandfather methali.
Kimsop you are losing Bigly
Raila never lost. He is defacto co president now
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Who want president in diapers;
Raila never lost. He is defacto co president now
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The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.
You have to take them with plentiful salt.
The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.
Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.
You have to take them with plentiful salt.
The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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No difference from Opinion polls of 2007,2013 and 2017 ....Still Raila lost the elections.
From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.
Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.
You have to take them with plentiful salt.
The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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We've been through this for 20yrs now!
We have had the same arguments for donkey years!
Momentos! Perfecto!Valid dreams!
This election is repeat of 2017 almost.
Expect the same 45 versus 55 percent.
There is really nothing different.
Raila is with Kalonzo - and is trying to gain Mt Kenya
Ruto is has retain Mt kenya - and is trying to gain NASA strongholds mostly in Western/Coast to cancel any gain Raila will make.
Rest of the country - will vote as usual 50-50.
Ruto will win this easy. He start with 14 counties in RV; adds 8 counties in Mt kenya; and he only need 2 more to win;
Bungoma is in.
Now entire coast, NEP, name it; he wont miss those two.
Tribal re-alignment with a bit of kachumbari - very easy to predict.
From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.
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One difference from those 3 elections. Rao lost momentum in all those 3 as we approached elections. This time its the reverse. He's gaining as we approach. Long campaigns a ala rao 97, 13, 17 and wsr 22 are detrimental to the campaigner. Loses the fuzz as competitor gathers steam.
And fyi, Tom wolf's opinion polls in all 3 were proved right.
No difference from Opinion polls of 2007,2013 and 2017 ....Still Raila lost the elections.
From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.
Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.
You have to take them with plentiful salt.
The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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Pray what is momentum.
UhuRuto in 2013 and 2017 nailed their ticket and their numbers almost one year to go.
In fact in 2017 - they didnt even add anything - they just consumated Jubilee of 2013 - in 2016 and waited for disorganized Raila to arrive at the start line...as always unprepared.
Raila as always was scrambling a coalition the last minute.
Is that last minute scrambling what you call a momentum.
Momentum is NARC wave of 2002 and Hustler Nation Wave. ODM wave of 2005-2007 can pass for momentum.
Kalonzo Kilimbi dance is not momentum - check the figures of Ukambani.
One difference from those 3 elections. Rao lost momentum in all those 3 as we approached elections. This time its the reverse. He's gaining as we approach. Long campaigns a ala rao 97, 13, 17 and wsr 22 are detrimental to the campaigner. Loses the fuzz as competitor gathers steam.
And fyi, Tom wolf's opinion polls in all 3 were proved right.
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Big difference. No mt kenya candidate. Expect turnout to drop in mt kenya. Guess to whose advantage/disadvantage
We've been through this for 20yrs now!
We have had the same arguments for donkey years!
Momentos! Perfecto!Valid dreams!
This election is repeat of 2017 almost.
Expect the same 45 versus 55 percent.
There is really nothing different.
Raila is with Kalonzo - and is trying to gain Mt Kenya
Ruto is has retain Mt kenya - and is trying to gain NASA strongholds mostly in Western/Coast to cancel any gain Raila will make.
Rest of the country - will vote as usual 50-50.
Ruto will win this easy. He start with 14 counties in RV; adds 8 counties in Mt kenya; and he only need 2 more to win;
Bungoma is in.
Now entire coast, NEP, name it; he wont miss those two.
Tribal re-alignment with a bit of kachumbari - very easy to predict.
From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.
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Internet never forgets
https://www.africanews.com/2017/07/24/conflicting-polls-place-kenya-s-main-presidential-candidates-in-the-lead/
Polling firm, Infotrak Harris, says Odinga scored a point lead over Kenyatta with 47 per cent and 43 per cent respectively after sampling 2,000 Kenyan registered voters.
“Raila has reduced the number of undecided in his strongholds,” the firm’s head Angela Ambitho told the media.
The results of the July 16 to 22 poll was released two hours after that of the Ipsos polling firm which sampled 2,209 people and placed Kenyatta in the lead with 47 per cent and Odinga behind with 43 per cent.
“It is really a dead heat right now – a tie statistically. And what will decide who wins in the first round is the number of undecided,” Ambitho added.
Even if this is anything to go by, the August 8 election will be the deciding factor.
Kenyans go to the polls on August 8 to vote for a new president. Eight candidates are contesting in the tensed election that has two favourites – President Uhuru Kenyatta of the Jubilee Party and Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance (NASA).
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Yes turnout will drop in GEMA but Kalenjin will increase turnout - but nothing changes - because Raila has dropped points; he need 10 percent if you believe 2017 was not rigged;
Kalenjin turnout was low of 78-80s - they are going back to 90 percent almost. Of course Kalenjin are about half of GEMA - so Ruto will lose 1 percent there - but I believe he competitive in more counties than Uhuru ever was.
Where does Raila manufacture a 10 percent deficit when he is leaking :) all over the country. This election is repeat of 2017.
Big difference. No mt kenya candidate. Expect turnout to drop in mt kenya. Guess to whose advantage/disadvantage
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Tactician - there has been almost no change in Ruto numbers since 2018.
They have remain solid...at 50 percent of the decided voters plus.
He has solid momentum called the Hustler Nation.
Raila is just doing the usual scrambling together of a coalition - trying to make it jelly - before realizing it's a little too late.
Meanwhile Ruto is just busy crossing the Ts and Is.
Making sure he protect his votes
And working on turnout game.
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https://www.cfr.org/blog/polls-tighten-run-kenyas-presidential-election
Kenya’s elections are scheduled to be held on August 8, exactly two weeks from today, and the race between the two leading presidential candidates is tightening. According to opinion polls, opposition leader Raila Odinga has a slight lead over incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta. The two leading political parties, Kenyatta’s Jubilee and Odinga’s National Super Alliance (NASA), are hiring elections expertise. NASA alone is planning to station up to one hundred thousand observers at the roughly forty thousand polling places.
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Tom Wolf disputes opiniin polls and this is as latest as last month.
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/05/24/why-opinion-polls-may-not-always-predict-election-outcomes-in-kenya/
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Another one from Tom Wolf in April
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/04/01/the-political-polling-season-is-upon-us-what-you-need-to-know-part-i/
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Twas just some few weeks ago when you opined that its impossible for rao to get 20% in mt kenya. Truth will sink in slowly. Two more months to go.
Tactician - there has been almost no change in Ruto numbers since 2018.
They have remain solid...at 50 percent of the decided voters plus.
He has solid momentum called the Hustler Nation.
Raila is just doing the usual scrambling together of a coalition - trying to make it jelly - before realizing it's a little too late.
Meanwhile Ruto is just busy crossing the Ts and Is.
Making sure he protect his votes
And working on turnout game.
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I think the best we can do is all UDA AND AZIMIO people not to post opinion polls on this forum because we cannot have a situation where you agree with a opinion poll which is favourable to you and rubbish one that is against you.That is the greatest height of impunity and kalenjin nationalism in this forum which cannot be tolerated.
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20% in Mt kenya ni ngumu sana. Most of you (nearly all of you) dont know how to read these numbers; check MOASS which will be out soon; for proper numbers;
Quick assignment - Focus on Mt kenya - look for 2013 and 2017 - find out how much Uhuru and Raila were polling strictly in Mt kenya.
Let discuss that. If opinion poll tell you Ruto is polling 10 percent in Luo Nyanza; and you know he will get 1 percent; or that Raila will get 15 percent of Kericho or Nandi or Bomet; you know he will get 2 percent;
Why would you believe it when they tell you Raila will get 25 percent of Mt kenya :) - their margin of error is almost 10 percent - meaning Raila will get 15 or well 35 percent.
I can almost tell you that apart from Meru and Kiambu - Nakuru (for obvious reasons of 20 percent non-kikuyu/kalenjin) - Raila will NOT get 20 percent in any other Mt kenya county. For Raila to improve from 1-2 percent to 15 percent sio Mchezo. It takes time for people to trust you enough to change their political stand...ask Ruto who has been tirelessly campaigning for 30ys..what sometimes a thankless job it may be..until you crack it open...like Bungoma now.
Twas just some few weeks ago when you opined that its impossible for rao to get 20% in mt kenya. Truth will sink in slowly. Two more months to go.
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Tactician please for heaven sake tafuta kazi ingine. These numbers these numbers; I am the PROFESSORI of them. I always try to get 100% right - in every county - it takes a lot of my thinking - modeling - understanding local issues - history - knowing kenya siasa inside out.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=5258.msg39567#msg39567
Nobody can come this close to predict kenya election - with such high level precision.
I have been getting better every election or referendum - and the lesson I have learnt - DO NOT LISTEN to anybody. The ones I get wrong I am normaly swayed by popular opinion - instead of my rigorous methods.
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I got about 5 last time with unacceptable ?15% difference;
I got another 10 - with difference of 5-10%.
This time my intention is to reduce the error rate to zero (:) - to half the error rate.
I predicted the re-run with precision of 98 percent for Uhuru - and predicted Raila would beat Turkana boy :) despite not running - it was a bull-eye :) :)
In 2010 referendum I got 33 versus 67 - it came down to 31 versus 68; all opinion polls had ruto at 15-25 percent - most at 20 percent to 80 percent - come election day = ohoo we are suprised Ruto did extremely well.
2013 - I predicted clean win of Jubilee of 51-52 - with no run -off as everyone waited for a run-off.
My final final MOASS is cooking - and after final register is out of 19th June - I will take few days to finalize and it will be out.
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Keep modelling 2022 using 2017. Mt Kenya will pull a shocker
Tactician please for heaven sake tafuta kazi ingine. These numbers these numbers; I am the PROFESSORI of them. I always try to get 100% right - in every county - it takes a lot of my thinking - modeling - understanding local issues - history - knowing kenya siasa inside out.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=5258.msg39567#msg39567
Nobody can come this close to predict kenya election - with such high level precision.
I have been getting better every election or referendum - and the lesson I have learnt - DO NOT LISTEN to anybody. The ones I get wrong I am normaly swayed by popular opinion - instead of my rigorous methods.
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How did I model 2017? Or 2013? What did I use? I watch many indicators - and Mt kenya is least likely to cause shocker - Ukambani ndio inasumbua.
Keep modelling 2022 using 2017. Mt Kenya will pull a shocker
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says a Kalenjin...
The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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Uhuru should be wary of Kalenjin coup in KDF as angry Ruto lash out.
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Uhuru should be wary of Kalenjin coup in KDF as angry Ruto lash out.
45% of KDF and 55% of Kenya police are Kalenjins. Uhuru and his project have nowhere to turn to! You rig, Kenya is kaput; you play fair, Ruto wins hands down! A rock and hard place it is!
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Delusioned. I can bet you will be one of the many will retire come Aug 09.
says a Kalenjin...
The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/
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That is the dilemma they are facing; they attempt to rig; Kalenjin will definitely unleash their demons and if mismanaged kenya descend into a civil war; they dont rig; Ruto beat them; that is if they can even manage to rig; because Ruto knows all their moves; and will protect UDA vote; and even out-rig Raila who is likely to be so disorganized he wont have any parraelle systems or will remember to deploy agents.
Like they say power is never given - it's taken. Ruto is taking it by force. They were expecting Ruto will talk nicely and negotiate for it - but Ruto is taking it either way.
45% of KDF and 55% of Kenya police are Kalenjins. Uhuru and his project have nowhere to turn to! You rig, Kenya is kaput; you play fair, Ruto wins hands down! A rock and hard place it is!
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Naona Jubilee are starting to say the police have gone rogue. That is expected - security forces - will go rogue on a dying regime. Next is for prov administration to tell Kibicho to go drying.
Jubilee SG Kioni accuses police of favouring DP Ruto's camp https://nation.africa › Home › Counties › Nyeri
2 days ago — Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni has accused security officers of favouring UDA in the campaigns by offering more protection to that ...
Uhuru should be wary of Kalenjin coup in KDF as angry Ruto lash out.