Hehe! Landlords please take note pic.twitter.com/Psnc6P2RgB
— Pauline Njoroge (@paulinenjoroge) June 5, 2022
The man should learn to think before talking.
I have had this draft seating in my mailbox for so looong since you started tapping about Big 4 and specifically about housing. There was nothing like Big4; those were just slogans hurriedly put together by some marketer at statehouse just before the elections of 2017. Complete with impressive graphics and photos obviously pulled from the internet to give an impression of some very modernistic development we were about to see or develop with Jubilee’s last term. Well, it impressed a lot of you!!
There was really no realistic plan to realise that and that’s why they all came unstuck.... and not BBI like you like spinning.... an easy scapegoat which would not have stopped other government programs from progressing in earnest if they were realistic and well thought. In fact, the handshake helped quite a bit in some way in assisting with a stable environment to conduct business.... that’s one of the core requirements around “risk assessment” on any investment. Meantime, ODM’s cooperation with Jubilee helped in accelerating or passing legislation and other laws towards Jubilees’s intended programs... one of which was the Housing program; which is why we have the KHMC (Kenya Housing Mortgage Company) and the Housing re-mortgage finance company backed by IFC and World Bank and other development partners.
Now, coming to Housing specifically... I know this because I am a player in that sector and we have come unstuck with inability to fund a 2400 Housing unit development scheme because of the systemic challenges in the Kenya scenario. I am talking from a practical example and first hand knowledge of what factors are at play, so stop with your too much know kiherehere. This is some bit of public educating I am sharing here.
Not even the Chinese can do this... locals can do it as much as the Chinese provided the systemic issues are addressed. Mind you, we don’t want a scenario in Kenya of the American 2008 sub-prime S&L or the recent China Evengrade mortgage meltdown. As you rightly point Kenya has only a few mortgages... actually about 50,000, not 30,000. Whereas people should be owning and living in their own units or at least paying to own at some point. As a factor, one of the biggest impediment in Kenya is the cost of land as one factor, especially in the urban areas. You could try price a unit at 1m but the price of land even in the outskirts of the main city can’t let you!!!
Now, in this scenario, even if we were to produce thousands of houses, who will guarantee the developers of uptake?? Without guaranteed uptake, no developer would risk or put down a dime!! Not the Chinese, neither any local... that’s what the KMRC (Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company) was to cure or Guarantee. The trick is not really in increasing the NSSF contributions to thousands or imposing a Housing levy on salaries... why would I be levied if I have no intention to be on the scheme. This was resisted because it was being made mandatory and yet it should be a voluntary scheme. The trick is in finding a way to guarantee that housing units which came to the market will be taken up... and the government can’t give a blanket guarantee, this will simply increase the government’s debt burden and also squeeze other players out of a market which it ain’t qualified to play in. The Chinese went even as far as asking for sovereign guarantees, that’s tantamount to GOK guaranteeing to be the purchaser if the units!! Now, if it is giving Chinese these guarantees, why not give same to local developers as well??? In the end no such scheme was possible... we had a scheme of this nature in Angola and now we have ghost cities outside Luanda with no tenants... the units have fallen into disrepair and the Chinese have long been paid with Oil and Diamonds and long gone.
For over 3years we struggled to mobilise $170m debt for a $260m gross value development; we got serious offers but the ultimate killer of the transactions was always the uptake guarantee. We had many potential funders who were willing to escrow the receivables and be paid over 3years post-completion of development... but without guarantees that the units would be all be sold by 36th month, everything fell through.
What I have summarised here is really pretty much on the surface scenario of things at play. Other embedded systemic issues are at play... for example insurance companies and the provident funds are seating on mountains of cash, why can’t they put these funds in housing (and other infrastructure like roads, railways, airports, ports etc). They can get into toll roads like the Nairobi Expressway or such. And other big provident funds like Caliper or the Canadians were all too willing to come on board provided local funds lead the way. We need long term funds... bank loans can’t work in mortgage financing, you need minimum 10yr money.
Finally, if I may; forget your fixation with the Chinese. What we found with the 3years legwork and roadshows across the globe, many entities can execute these types of projects; all they need is the right environment, incentives and setting... the Chinese are a favourite only because they the best in slicing public officials their huge cuts. We found the Turkish, Americans, even some very interesting European entities very ready and willing to be involved. Singapore has achieved almost “100%” home ownership with a very “simple” model... that’s the model we should adopt. Read it up... I can’t start regurgitating here.
You start from wrong footing - Big 4 was not revealed until after 2017 election.
Those of us who follows these things know better than you do.
Big 4 was 1st announced in Jamhuri of 2017 - long after election.
It was a solid plan that addressed all your concerns.
The housing sector was easiest to pull.
It looked both at supply and demand side issues....and pretty much proposed straightforward solution.
There was 24 billion dollars plus worth of commitment that came through.
But Uhuru started his misguided war with Ruto - then found himself doing BBI - and only delivered 2,000 units.
Output: BIG 4 failed. BBI failed. War against ruto failed.
The mlevi screwball just cannot get anything right - and combined with legendary failure Raila - you can expect the usual nonsense of we are cross roads tiala tibim nonsense.
Big 4 housing document is out there - Ruto will not add a comma to it - in his upcoming manifesto.
It addresses all those concerns - again both supply and demand side of housing - and is solid plan.
Ruto was central in formulation of Big 4 - which was suppose to be next phase after infrastructure was done.
Mlevi took over - and of course it all collapsed.
What did get off ground - few units - that Kenya mortgage refinancing - and that was pretty it.
Before long - housing was dumped - and it became Kazi Mtaani.
There are many long term funds - both internally and externally looking for investment in real estate like in Kenya.
All gov need to do is to de-risk the sector - and it can easily do that - if it's serious.
2ndly housing main intention apart from providing houses - is to generate at least two million mjengo jobs.
It can be done. It will be done. Ruto did it with low seal volume roads. When they got problems - they solved those problems.
Raila is obviously too senile to do anything serious and has detoriated so much he is back to "disease, poverty and ingorance".
Back to housing - there is no new money require - people are paying rent in Nairobi that can easily become mortgage - people just need to raise 10-20 percent deposit - then continue to pay their normal rent. That housing levy was suppose to prepare people to raise 10-20 percent deposit - then banks will take care of the rest - as long as mortgage = rent.I have had this draft seating in my mailbox for so looong since you started tapping about Big 4 and specifically about housing. There was nothing like Big4; those were just slogans hurriedly put together by some marketer at statehouse just before the elections of 2017. Complete with impressive graphics and photos obviously pulled from the internet to give an impression of some very modernistic development we were about to see or develop with Jubilee’s last term. Well, it impressed a lot of you!!
There was really no realistic plan to realise that and that’s why they all came unstuck.... and not BBI like you like spinning.... an easy scapegoat which would not have stopped other government programs from progressing in earnest if they were realistic and well thought. In fact, the handshake helped quite a bit in some way in assisting with a stable environment to conduct business.... that’s one of the core requirements around “risk assessment” on any investment. Meantime, ODM’s cooperation with Jubilee helped in accelerating or passing legislation and other laws towards Jubilees’s intended programs... one of which was the Housing program; which is why we have the KHMC (Kenya Housing Mortgage Company) and the Housing re-mortgage finance company backed by IFC and World Bank and other development partners.
Now, coming to Housing specifically... I know this because I am a player in that sector and we have come unstuck with inability to fund a 2400 Housing unit development scheme because of the systemic challenges in the Kenya scenario. I am talking from a practical example and first hand knowledge of what factors are at play, so stop with your too much know kiherehere. This is some bit of public educating I am sharing here.
Not even the Chinese can do this... locals can do it as much as the Chinese provided the systemic issues are addressed. Mind you, we don’t want a scenario in Kenya of the American 2008 sub-prime S&L or the recent China Evengrade mortgage meltdown. As you rightly point Kenya has only a few mortgages... actually about 50,000, not 30,000. Whereas people should be owning and living in their own units or at least paying to own at some point. As a factor, one of the biggest impediment in Kenya is the cost of land as one factor, especially in the urban areas. You could try price a unit at 1m but the price of land even in the outskirts of the main city can’t let you!!!
Now, in this scenario, even if we were to produce thousands of houses, who will guarantee the developers of uptake?? Without guaranteed uptake, no developer would risk or put down a dime!! Not the Chinese, neither any local... that’s what the KMRC (Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company) was to cure or Guarantee. The trick is not really in increasing the NSSF contributions to thousands or imposing a Housing levy on salaries... why would I be levied if I have no intention to be on the scheme. This was resisted because it was being made mandatory and yet it should be a voluntary scheme. The trick is in finding a way to guarantee that housing units which came to the market will be taken up... and the government can’t give a blanket guarantee, this will simply increase the government’s debt burden and also squeeze other players out of a market which it ain’t qualified to play in. The Chinese went even as far as asking for sovereign guarantees, that’s tantamount to GOK guaranteeing to be the purchaser if the units!! Now, if it is giving Chinese these guarantees, why not give same to local developers as well??? In the end no such scheme was possible... we had a scheme of this nature in Angola and now we have ghost cities outside Luanda with no tenants... the units have fallen into disrepair and the Chinese have long been paid with Oil and Diamonds and long gone.
For over 3years we struggled to mobilise $170m debt for a $260m gross value development; we got serious offers but the ultimate killer of the transactions was always the uptake guarantee. We had many potential funders who were willing to escrow the receivables and be paid over 3years post-completion of development... but without guarantees that the units would be all be sold by 36th month, everything fell through.
What I have summarised here is really pretty much on the surface scenario of things at play. Other embedded systemic issues are at play... for example insurance companies and the provident funds are seating on mountains of cash, why can’t they put these funds in housing (and other infrastructure like roads, railways, airports, ports etc). They can get into toll roads like the Nairobi Expressway or such. And other big provident funds like Caliper or the Canadians were all too willing to come on board provided local funds lead the way. We need long term funds... bank loans can’t work in mortgage financing, you need minimum 10yr money.
Finally, if I may; forget your fixation with the Chinese. What we found with the 3years legwork and roadshows across the globe, many entities can execute these types of projects; all they need is the right environment, incentives and setting... the Chinese are a favourite only because they the best in slicing public officials their huge cuts. We found the Turkish, Americans, even some very interesting European entities very ready and willing to be involved. Singapore has achieved almost “100%” home ownership with a very “simple” model... that’s the model we should adopt. Read it up... I can’t start regurgitating here.
He is trying to mobilize luhya luhya kisii votes who are about 700k in Nairobi...remember majority landlords in areas like kawangware are Kikuyu.This can turn into serious class warfare and mutate to ethnic conflict.Its a very bad statements and he needs to measure his words in such volatile areas like kawangware slums.
It only dangerous because Raila has used such propaganda before - so Ruto should avoid it. Raila started landlord tiff with Kibra Nubians in early 90s. So this hot potato that Ruto should be aware. I know he wants fix housing situation but anything touching landlords and their property - even willing seller buyer - leave it alone. Concretrate on two million housing deficit.He is trying to mobilize luhya luhya kisii votes who are about 700k in Nairobi...remember majority landlords in areas like kawangware are Kikuyu.This can turn into serious class warfare and mutate to ethnic conflict.Its a very bad statements and he needs to measure his words in such volatile areas like kawangware slums.
Royal media Nation media standard and media max will make this the agenda this week.
The good thing like madodoa or pev thing - four fingers will point at Raila - everytime you point a finger to Ruto. Whatever imagined crime they want to accuse Ruto - Raila is almost guilty of 10 ten times worse.
This is why this election is walk over for Ruto.Royal media Nation media standard and media max will make this the agenda this week.
They will parade all sorts of Hail Mary proposals from now till elections in desperate attempt to woo voters 😂Raila has been campaigning nationally since 1991; DP started in 2012 and they are 55/45 in favor of DP. I don't see Raila beating Ruto if he couldn't beat senile Moi, slow Kibaki, and laz Uhuru. Ruto is energetic, moneyed, sobber, PhD holder, team Organizer, mobilizer, and mountain & RV kingpin, and above all, Christian base hero. It will be very extremely hard to beat him. Uhuru so far has spend over over 100 Billion from 2018 to the detriment of Kenya economy to beat Ruto [BBI et al; Kizimia et all] but the man is still charging forward like a hurricane.
Hustler prokopanda - failed
County charter - stillborn
Now its rent to own - own goal
They won't get traction with pro poor policies because raia realizes BABA cares for the downtrodden more than mwizi.
They should appeal to different segment.
Babaman has included pesa mfukoni in his manifesto.Problem with herding cows - no intellectual thought. No campaign message.
Raila has been campaigning nationally since 1991; DP started in 2012 and they are 55/45 in favor of DP. I don't see Raila beating Ruto if he couldn't beat senile Moi, slow Kibaki, and laz Uhuru. Ruto is energetic, moneyed, sobber, PhD holder, team Organizer, mobilizer, and mountain & RV kingpin, and above all, Christian base hero. It will be very extremely hard to beat him. Uhuru so far has spend over over 100 Billion from 2018 to the detriment of Kenya economy to beat Ruto [BBI et al; Kizimia et all] but the man is still charging forward like a hurricane.