Nipate

Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on June 02, 2022, 04:18:04 PM

Title: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Pundit on June 02, 2022, 04:18:04 PM
I think entire RV - only place Ruto will do 50-50 with Azimio is maybe Kajiado.



Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: Pajero on June 02, 2022, 04:30:37 PM
Narok is 50:50 interms of presidential vote,on other elective seats,specifically Senate,gavana,yes UDA has upoerhand coz of the Kalenjin factor in Narok,but maasais wing of Narok iko ODM.Check mizani polls on presidential candidate popularity
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 02, 2022, 04:35:10 PM
Narok is like Nakuru, Bungoma, and Transnzoia. Kalenjins will power majority by 30% +. That is why Lee Kinyanjui, Corrupt Ole Kina, and thieving Natembeya are going home direct. Kalenjins and Kikuyus in those regions will deliver devastating blow down ballot!
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Pundit on June 02, 2022, 04:45:45 PM
Not anymore.
Narok Maasai had beef with Kalenjin over Mau forest and the support of Ole Tunai.
Then majority of Maasai - Purko Clan (who are like 30 % of Narok) - had beef that Kipsigis were backing a minority ole Tunai (from tiny Siria clan) and protecting him.
Now Ruto solved those two issues.
1) Mau forest is settled - kipsigis were removed and Ruto promised them land after he wins
2) Purko - Ole Ntutu - is now being supported by Kipsigis.
Now the rest of Maasai clans - are generally friendly if not half-kalenjin.
Uasin-Gishu, Motianik (Sunkulis is half-kalenjin) name it.

In short I expect Ruto to win Narok by 65-70 percent.

Being Kalenjin+Kikuyu at 40 percent; and Maasai will split almost half - giving Ruto another 25 percent.

Quote from: Pajero on June 02, 2022, 04:30:37 PM
Narok is 50:50 interms of presidential vote,on other elective seats,specifically Senate,gavana,yes UDA has upoerhand coz of the Kalenjin factor in Narok,but maasais wing of Narok iko ODM.Check mizani polls on presidential candidate popularity
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 02, 2022, 04:59:32 PM
Quote from: RV Pundit on June 02, 2022, 04:45:45 PM
Not anymore.
Narok Maasai had beef with Kalenjin over Mau forest and the support of Ole Tunai.
Then majority of Maasai - Purko Clan (who are like 30 % of Narok) - had beef that Kipsigis were backing a minority ole Tunai (from tiny Siria clan) and protecting him.
Now Ruto solved those two issues.
1) Mau forest is settled - kipsigis were removed and Ruto promised them land after he wins
2) Purko - Ole Ntutu - is now being supported by Kipsigis.
Now the rest of Maasai clans - are generally friendly if not half-kalenjin.
Uasin-Gishu, Motianik (Sunkulis is half-kalenjin) name it.

In short I expect Ruto to win Narok by 65-70 percent.

Being Kalenjin+Kikuyu at 40 percent; and Maasai will split almost half - giving Ruto another 25 percent.

Quote from: Pajero on June 02, 2022, 04:30:37 PM
Narok is 50:50 interms of presidential vote,on other elective seats,specifically Senate,gavana,yes UDA has upoerhand coz of the Kalenjin factor in Narok,but maasais wing of Narok iko ODM.Check mizani polls on presidential candidate popularity
Another thing, In Narok, Ruto is marketed as a local. His massive Ranch in Kilgoris killed 50 bulls and welcomed thousands of Masaais to his home for the feast. Almost every Maa ( 6 in 10) talks about Ruto in a way no politician is talked about. He won all Maasais overnight and killed Ole Kina's voice for good. I expect more Maasais 60% +to vote for Ruto and about 35% % for Raila. On the other hand, Kalenjins and Kyuks will deliver 95% votes to Ruto which in totality will be 70-75%. Purko clans  and Ole Ntutu for sure will vanquish the others in a special way!
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Pundit on June 02, 2022, 05:00:10 PM
Bungoma - Kalenjin are about 10 percent - they still do get Deputy Governor occasional - if not a Tachoni.
Tranzoia, Narok, and Nakuru - they determine the winner - get DPORK - and senate or women rep. That is smart politics.
Kalenjin as political force is almost equal if not better than kikuyus.

Kalenjin have elected leaders in 11 counties. If Sakaja wins - there will be 11 Kalenjin governors or deputy govenors.
Kalenjin also have about 55 Mps - almost similar number with kikuyus (if not entire GEMA).

Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 02, 2022, 04:35:10 PM
Narok is like Nakuru, Bungoma, and Transnzoia. Kalenjins will power majority by 30% +. That is why Lee Kinyanjui, Corrupt Ole Kina, and thieving Natembeya are going home direct. Kalenjins and Kikuyus in those regions will deliver devastating blow down ballot!
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Pundit on June 02, 2022, 05:04:51 PM
Yes I forget that Ruto land in Transmara. That will generally cement the ties btw many Nandis and Maasai - half Transmara is basically half-nandi/sabaot - who were brought as "Maasai" but had lived with Nandis in Uasin Gishu and Tranzoia. Same in Narok south- lots of Tugen who pretend to be Maasai.

Yes Ole Kina and the other dude attempted to run Maasai nationalism - but even their supporters have realized just how foolish that venture was. They have lost the plot. Initially they had incited Maasai - but without Mau forest - what is the BEEF?

Ole Kenta and Ntutu are both Purkos. However Nntutu of course comes from paramount chief family of Ntutu - and unlike kalenjin - Maasai are dynasty lovers.

So yes I think 70 percent is more like it  - if Ole Kenta and Ole Kina keep the Maasai nationalism embers burning - they seem to have extinguished.

Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 02, 2022, 04:59:32 PM
Another thing, In Narok, Ruto is marketed as a local. His massive Ranch in Kilgoris killed 50 bulls and welcomed thousands of Masaais to his home for the feast. Almost every Maa ( 6 in 10) talks about Ruto in a way no politician is talked about. He won all Maasais overnight and killed Ole Kina's voice for good. I expect more Maasais 60% +to vote for Ruto and about 35% % for Raila. On the other hand, Kalenjins and Kyuks will deliver 95% votes to Ruto which in totality will be 70-75%. Purko clans  and Ole Ntutu for sure will vanquish the others in a special way!
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: Nefertiti on July 02, 2022, 01:54:16 AM
Pundit what's the story on Ledama ole Kina?

?s=20&t=e5gl6CO5bhqJ__YXNdhiVw
Title: Re: Narok predictably is strong UDA
Post by: RV Pundit on July 02, 2022, 08:05:12 AM
Some people think Tunai did terrible job as governor but Ole kina is going nowhere because non maasai at 50 percent will not vote a warmonger ntimama wannabe.Last time he sneaked in due to jubilee and ccm of Isaac Ruto splitting kipsigis votes.. CCM won a seat and Ngeno was in KANU...this time Ruto has reconciled with Issac Rutoh and Ngeno