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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Pajero on May 29, 2022, 09:43:48 PM

Title: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: Pajero on May 29, 2022, 09:43:48 PM
Pundito,do you see the danger,That's a cool 2.6M votes.Thats what we are gaining.Compare that to 10% of 1.9 coastal votes we are loosing,a paltry 190K.
Who is fooling who?????Wake up broda.
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: RV Pundit on May 29, 2022, 10:23:22 PM
Kwanza get Kalonzo onboard ndio even you have the audacity to throw figures;
Bila kalonzo ukambani sijui hata munafanya nini

Bila Kalonzo you're looking at 35-30 percent versus 60-65 Kichapo ya dogo
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: Pajero on May 29, 2022, 10:37:01 PM
Face the bull,am talking about gema,How does Kalonzo come in
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: RV Pundit on May 30, 2022, 08:31:58 AM
Mizani who do big samples per county shows RUto at 80 percent generally in GEMA. Uhuru silence or absence from campaign trail will see Ruto win 90 percent of GEMA. GEMA have been united for 20yrs; I dont see them accepting any subdivision; not even in Kirinyanga are people impressed with Raila or Martha;  they are going to have a consensus; and that is Ruto is the better choice; those uncomfortable with Ruto will still vote for him for unity sake.

10 percent will be huge improvement from 1-2 percent Jakom has gotten the last 4 election cycles.

Raila has two months to visit the mountain with Martha and do  the impossible.
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: Pajero on May 30, 2022, 09:04:22 AM
Is it same Mizani which says predidency is neck to neck yet your MOA,s say different,,so tell me pundito,which part of Mizani do you agree with and which one dont you agree with.we need to be consistent here.
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: RV Pundit on May 30, 2022, 09:13:05 AM
If you dont factor turnout projection - even MOAS will be neck and neck - that is with Kalonzo supporting Raila.
When you factor MOAS - MAGIC Happen.
Because Raila strongholds do not vote as much as Ruto strongholds.
Maybe GEMA will not vote this time round.
But still getting support in NEP or Coast or Western or Gusii - where just 60 percent turn up - is not the same with same RV or mt kenya

Turnout is important as much as Percentages.

Is it same Mizani which says predidency is neck to neck yet your MOA,s say different,,so tell me pundito,which part of Mizani do you agree with and which one dont you agree with.we need to be consistent here.
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: Pajero on May 30, 2022, 09:14:51 AM
So you agree with me it's neck to neck
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: Nowayhaha on May 30, 2022, 09:19:28 AM

Punguza Bangi unavuta Pajero. GEMA wre fully behind Ruto.

Pundito,do you see the danger,That's a cool 2.6M votes.Thats what we are gaining.Compare that to 10% of 1.9 coastal votes we are loosing,a paltry 190K.
Who is fooling who?????Wake up broda.
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: RV Pundit on May 30, 2022, 09:20:18 AM
If you get Kalonzo on board; it now going to be 45-55 percent; If that is neck to neck; go for it; Without Kalonzo; you go down to 37 percent; Ruto moves to 57 percent;
So you agree with me it's neck to neck
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: Pajero on May 30, 2022, 09:42:12 AM
The Mizani you are quoting is putting it at 42 vs 41.TIFA has Raila leading with 39 vs 35.Star poll also 42 vs 42.sasa wewe hii yako unatoa wapi.
Title: Re: What is 40% of 6.2M Gema votes
Post by: RV Pundit on May 30, 2022, 09:49:14 AM
Excel with realistic projection of voting and turnout; Very simple; Just 47 columns; try it; tribal breakdown of every county is available.
The Mizani you are quoting is putting it at 42 vs 41.TIFA has Raila leading with 39 vs 35.Star poll also 42 vs 42.sasa wewe hii yako unatoa wapi.