Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on May 29, 2022, 05:28:37 PM
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Hapa Naona he is having second thoughts.
I think he will tell Azimio we deal in 2nd round.
He has no gurantee.
He can see Mt kenya imekataa.
If he must drown he rather drown alone.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001446663/timetable-on-when-all-18-presidential-aspirants-will-appear-before-the-iebc
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18 long list - hopefully they whittle it down to 10
Look like some appeared today?
Sunday, May 29, 2022
Peter Mumbiko King’ori (Independent): 2pm
Justus Juma (Justice and Freedom Party): 3pm
Monday, May 30, 2022
Prof. George Wajackoyah (Roots Party) 8am
Walter Mongare (Umoja Summit Party) 10am
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
Dorothy Kemunto Nyangaori (Independent) 2pm
Wednesday, June 1, 2022
Gibson Ngaruiya Nganga (Independent) 10am
Thursday, June 2, 2022
James Kamau (Independent) 11am
Friday, June 3, 2022
Jeremiah Nyagah (Independent) 9am
Jane Juliet Munyeki (Independent) 12 noon
Saturday, June 4, 2022
William Samoei Ruto (UDA) 11am
Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Party) 2pm
David Mwaure Waihiga (Agano Party) 3pm
Sunday, June 5, 2022
Raila Odinga (Azimio la Umoja) 10am
Dr Ekuru Aukot (Thirdway Alliance) 2pm
George Munyottah (Independent) 3pm
Monday, June 6, 2022
Jimi Wanjigi (Safina Party) 11am
Muthiora Eliudi Kiriara (Independent) 2pm
Njeru Kathangu (Ford Asili) 3pm.
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This Kalonzo thing is exciting you soo much.
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No. Ruto is already won. He only excite me because you will look like fools to go to supreme court with such a gap; But we shall expect to see you in court;
This Kalonzo thing is exciting you soo much.
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How does Ruto win with 50% central and 60% Riftvalley and less than 40% in remaining regions, HOW, HOW, HOW,Tell me how boiyo
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Please wait for updated MOAS next week. In the meantime please read Moses Kuria one
This is with Kalonzo supporting you
(http://[tweet]1530609436829569024[/tweet]/photo/1)
How does Ruto win with 50% central and 60% Riftvalley and less than 40% in remaining regions, HOW, HOW, HOW,Tell me how boiyo
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Tell me something else, NOT those kesses MOA,s
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If kalonzo does not support Azimio then it's obvious Uhuru is playing Raila and Azimio. Without Kalonzo, Raila has no path to presidency. Waste time. Tuenjoy tuu tibim, tia lala, what a bad ending to Raila political career.
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Have done my own interviews with Kambas , They are all in Azimio.
Either they will force Kalonzo to go azimio or Kalonzo if he runs will have a bad showing.
Having said that still with Kamba vote there with GEMA fully supporting Ruto its hars to defeat Ruto.
Hapa Naona he is having second thoughts.
I think he will tell Azimio we deal in 2nd round.
He has no gurantee.
He can see Mt kenya imekataa.
If he must drown he rather drown alone.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001446663/timetable-on-when-all-18-presidential-aspirants-will-appear-before-the-iebc
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How many kambas did you interview?
It's Kalonzo to move; He must be watching GEMA moves; because he knows; Without some significant GEMA support; then they are looking at huge defeat;
Have done my own interviews with Kambas , They are all in Azimio.
Either they will force Kalonzo to go azimio or Kalonzo if he runs will have a bad showing.
Having said that still with Kamba vote there with GEMA fully supporting Ruto its hars to defeat Ruto.
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It's only Pundito who believes Kambas font follow their son Kalonzo.That Kambas love UDA Soo much than wiper.
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A very significant number. Lets be realistic All are pointing out to Azimio. Seems they have emotiinally invested with Raila.However they wont vote Raila to the extent they did in 2013,2017 still majority will vote for Raila.
How many kambas did you interview?
It's Kalonzo to move; He must be watching GEMA moves; because he knows; Without some significant GEMA support; then they are looking at huge defeat;
Have done my own interviews with Kambas , They are all in Azimio.
Either they will force Kalonzo to go azimio or Kalonzo if he runs will have a bad showing.
Having said that still with Kamba vote there with GEMA fully supporting Ruto its hars to defeat Ruto.
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Check MOASS for my thinking of Kambas; I actually halved Ruto opinion poll support; But I wont be suprised if Ruto exceed them.
I have Ruto at 20 percent in Kitui; Raila at 80 percent; 25 percent in Makueni; and Ruto at 30 percent in Machakos;
Just about the same level Jubilee did in 2017
It's only Pundito who believes Kambas font follow their son Kalonzo.That Kambas love UDA Soo much than wiper.
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Agreed - Ruto will improve slightly from Jubilee 2017 figures - however dont be suprised if he exceed and does 40 percent in Ukambani as many opinion polls suggests.
Kambas has suprised me before - in 2010 referendum - they voted NO- more than Yes.
I tend to feel Ruto has made more gains than Uhuru - last election Ruto had trouble finding crowds in Ukambani - they had to ferry people - Kambas were very strongly in NASA/CORD.
This one - Kalonzo has totally confused them. Ruto has Muthama and Mutua now.
A very significant number. Lets be realistic All are pointing out to Azimio. Seems they have emotiinally invested with Raila.However they wont vote Raila to the extent they did in 2013,2017 still majority will vote for Raila.
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30% machakos is about 150K,25% makueni is about 80K and 20% kitui is another 80K.Si you want to tell us Ruto will get over 300K in Ukambani.Go slow on weed bana,his chairman is already struggling in machakos.
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Ruto in Kitui and Machakos will do more than 30%. In Makueni perhsps 20% .
Muthama and team have not capitalized on Kalonzos betrayal by Raila. Seems they have the wait and see approach .
If they would have started propaganda immediately Kalozo was betrayed they could have swayed a big chunk of the voters and just like Mudavadis case in 2013 would have forced Kalonzo to run.
Now Kalonzo is negotiating for CS slots using his presidential nomination.
Check MOASS for my thinking of Kambas; I actually halved Ruto opinion poll support; But I wont be suprised if Ruto exceed them.
I have Ruto at 20 percent in Kitui; Raila at 80 percent; 25 percent in Makueni; and Ruto at 30 percent in Machakos;
Just about the same level Jubilee did in 2017
It's only Pundito who believes Kambas font follow their son Kalonzo.That Kambas love UDA Soo much than wiper.
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Opinion polls suggest double that; What is the basis of your rant? Matusi bure.
30% machakos is about 150K,25% makueni is about 80K and 20% kitui is another 80K.Si you want to tell us Ruto will get over 300K in Ukambani.Go slow on weed bana,his chairman is already struggling in machakos.
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We shall see - opinion polls give good data to begin with - then we can refine with reality.
Ruto in Kitui and Machakos will do more than 30%. In Makueni perhsps 20% .
Muthama and team have not capitalized on Kalonzos betrayal by Raila. Seems they have the wait and see approach .
If they would have started propaganda immediately Kalozo was betrayed they could have swayed a big chunk of the voters and just like Mudavadis case in 2013 would have forced Kalonzo to run.
Now Kalonzo is negotiating for CS slots using his presidential nomination.
Check MOASS for my thinking of Kambas; I actually halved Ruto opinion poll support; But I wont be suprised if Ruto exceed them.
I have Ruto at 20 percent in Kitui; Raila at 80 percent; 25 percent in Makueni; and Ruto at 30 percent in Machakos;
Just about the same level Jubilee did in 2017
It's only Pundito who believes Kambas font follow their son Kalonzo.That Kambas love UDA Soo much than wiper.
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Dont trust opinion polls. They are in for Business.
We shall see - opinion polls give good data to begin with - then we can refine with reality.
Ruto in Kitui and Machakos will do more than 30%. In Makueni perhsps 20% .
Muthama and team have not capitalized on Kalonzos betrayal by Raila. Seems they have the wait and see approach .
If they would have started propaganda immediately Kalozo was betrayed they could have swayed a big chunk of the voters and just like Mudavadis case in 2013 would have forced Kalonzo to run.
Now Kalonzo is negotiating for CS slots using his presidential nomination.
Check MOASS for my thinking of Kambas; I actually halved Ruto opinion poll support; But I wont be suprised if Ruto exceed them.
I have Ruto at 20 percent in Kitui; Raila at 80 percent; 25 percent in Makueni; and Ruto at 30 percent in Machakos;
Just about the same level Jubilee did in 2017
It's only Pundito who believes Kambas font follow their son Kalonzo.That Kambas love UDA Soo much than wiper.
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Highest percentage he will do is about 15% in machakos,rural kitui and makueni will be about 10%.Kambas are like ,Luos,Kalenjins,they move in one basket.
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So i trust your own opinion poll done in bar :) They give good raw data; and if they are many; you can tell which one is credible; then we work from there; and refine;
Dont trust opinion polls. They are in for Business.
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But kikuyus wont move in one basket?
Highest percentage he will do is about 15% in machakos,rural kitui and makueni will be about 10%.Kambas are like ,Luos,Kalenjins,they move in one basket.
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RV you know Ive been in politics for a very longtime . Ive maintained since time memorial Ruto will win by 56% . Wewe uliyoka 60+% and now you are at 55%.
We both predicted Mudavadi and Wetangula would join Ruto.
Why would you then doubt me when I point out the obvious truth.
So i trust your own opinion poll done in bar :) They give good raw data; and if they are many; you can tell which one is credible; then we work from there; and refine;
Dont trust opinion polls. They are in for Business.
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I dont doubt you anecdotal evidence; I am just more inclined to work with empirical evidence however poisoned; at least I have strong basis to begin with; I check all the many opinion polls; if they say the same story; that is good basis; if they are consisent; that is good; sometimes they are all over the places; that is redflag
Politics is very dynamic;
You'd be a genius to predict all the moves;
Watch for me Mijikenda while down at coast...let see if Kingi move will have some impact.
And Ruto talking big about Land and SGR.
RV you know Ive been in politics for a very longtime . Ive maintained since time memorial Ruto will win by 56% . Wewe uliyoka 60+% and now you are at 55%.
We both predicted Mudavadi and Wetangula would join Ruto.
Why would you then doubt me when I point out the obvious truth.
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You see what I mean when I say you smoke weed.55% of possible 16 million voters is about 9M.So you are saying Ruto will ganner 9 million votes.Now,let's start with the so called perceived stronghold s of central and Kalenjin Rift.Central has 3.1 registered voters,with a turn out of 70%,we are likely to see only 2.1M people vote.Give Ruto 70% if this which is 1.4M.
We go to Kalenjin Rift with a combined vote of about 2.2M.With voters turn out of 80%,about 1.6M will vote with Ruto getting 90% if this,which is about 1.5M.
Now add 1.4M ya central and 1.5 M ya wa kale and you get 2.9M votes.As per your MOA,s,Ruto is winning with 9M votes,the deficiet is 6.1M votes.Where is Ruto getting this 6.1M from.???????
Please,revise your numbers,55% is not making sense.
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You see what I mean when I say you smoke weed.55% of possible 16 million voters is about 9M.So you are saying Ruto will ganner 9 million votes.Now,let's start with the so called perceived stronghold s of central and Kalenjin Rift.Central has 3.1 registered voters,with a turn out of 70%,we are likely to see only 2.1M people vote.Give Ruto 70% if this which is 1.4M.
We go to Kalenjin Rift with a combined vote of about 2.2M.With voters turn out of 80%,about 1.6M will vote with Ruto getting 90% if this,which is about 1.5M.
Now add 1.4M ya central and 1.5 M ya wa kale and you get 2.9M votes.As per your MOA,s,Ruto is winning with 9M votes,the deficiet is 6.1M votes.Where is Ruto getting this 6.1M from.???????
Please,revise your numbers,55% is not making sense.
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Even if Ruto gets the entire Coast, western,Nyanza,Nairobi,still he can't bridge the 6.1M deficiet,lying requires some intelligence bwana,dint just throw numbers for sake of it.Ruto CANNOT get 56%.
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In a different thread you mentioned whats the total electorate numeber of GEMA ?
Even if Ruto gets the entire Coast, western,Nyanza,Nairobi,still he can't bridge the 6.1M deficiet,lying requires some intelligence bwana,dint just throw numbers for sake of it.Ruto CANNOT get 56%.
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Gema registered are about 6.2M spread across thus way central 3.1,Upper eastern 1.4,Nairobi 1M,Rift valley 1M.
Now on any given day,about 70% will turn out to vote which is about 4.5M.Of this 4.5Raila anakula yake 40% which is about 2M.Ruto anabaki na 2.5M.
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You're swinging wildly btw anger, acceptance, bargaining ; it going be though before you accept that WSR has won this thing.
Gema registered are about 6.2M spread across thus way central 3.1,Upper eastern 1.4,Nairobi 1M,Rift valley 1M.
Now on any given day,about 70% will turn out to vote which is about 4.5M.Of this 4.5Raila anakula yake 40% which is about 2M.Ruto anabaki na 2.5M.
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Pundit what you are ignoring is that Kalonzo is not going to run around the country with Raila.. but will focus on Ukambani. He will do serious damage to Ruto there. You saw in Machakos senate by-election. Poor Muthama was no match.
Another thing: saying Ruto will exceed Jubilee 2017 is a poor basis. Ruto is much more loathed by Kamba than Uhuru... especially by Kalonzo and the venomous Ngilu. His hard-nosed approach I guess threatens them, unlike Uhuru or Raila soft or hands-off approach.
Azimio know Ruto is salivating for Kamba.. and will unveil Kalonzo 3-leg deal as the new covenant. Even Ngilu & Kibwana have gone soft or stopped attacking him. Safe bet for Ruto is 15% like Machakos.
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You sound desperate - opinion polls have routinely shown Ruto sometimes leading Ukambani - mostly at 40 percent - UDA is second most popular party - and has fielded in every MCA, MP, name it seat ukambani. That tell you candidates know UDA and Ruto are second best after missing wiper - meaning Ruto is doing very well.
Ruto will improve because he has Muthama and Mutua in Machakos - in addition to Kawayas and Munyakas. Hapo ako sawa Machakos...which is biggest in Ukambani.
The rest he will do good or bad depending on church network. I know in 2010 referendum - Nos won due to the church.
What is basis of 15 or 5 percent if not wishful thinking. Kalonzo in all opinion polls is doing very very badly in Ukambani - being beaten by Raila and Ruto. That is not someone who will be doing damage - he will be doing damage control - explaining why he is not DPORK or PORK - why he is making Kambas the subject of ridicule - mara this mara that. That is going to be hard to explain - unless kambas are Luos who will follow odinga and will ask how high.
So even if you half opinion polls - Ruto is doing very well. You can also check popular social media with kambas - UDA and Ruto are popular - because there are kambas tired with Kalonzo directionless politics.
For me Ukambani will remain the wild card of 2022 - expect anything because it totally muddy. Opinion polls generally show Ruto doing very well but I am cautious. Nobody knows the direction two months to the election.
Pundit what you are ignoring is that Kalonzo is not going to run around the country with Raila.. but will focus on Ukambani. He will do serious damage to Ruto there. You saw in Machakos senate by-election. Poor Muthama was no match.
Another thing: saying Ruto will exceed Jubilee 2017 is a poor basis. Ruto is much more loathed by Kamba than Uhuru... especially by Kalonzo and the venomous Ngilu. His hard-nosed approach I guess threatens them, unlike Uhuru or Raila soft or hands-off approach.
Azimio know Ruto is salivating for Kamba.. and will unveil Kalonzo 3-leg deal as the new covenant. Even Ngilu & Kibwana have gone soft or stopped attacking him. Safe bet for Ruto is 15% like Machakos.