Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on May 19, 2022, 03:52:14 PM
-
Executive summary.
After five years of campaigning, strategic and tactical maneuvers, alliances, and re-alliances, heavy investment of time, money and energy here is the computation of the gained and lost votes by Raila and Ruto - the main protagonist of next election.
Ruto would declare a gross loss of -208,052 votes.
Raila would declare a gross loss of -742,332 votes.
Qualified opinion
If Raila bags Kalonzo - there is very likelihood of that happening
Raila will be at gross profit of 292K
Ruto will still be at gross loss 208K
Ruto opening balance was positive 1,441,660K.
Raila had negative balance of - 1,441,660K.
Net Profit/Loss
Ruto position remain very good despite loosing 200k votes to Uhuru & his state machinery- now he is 1,240,000 more votes than competition. Ruto will be about 0.5m votes above 50% threshold.
Raila with Uhuru, deep state and all the advantages he has enjoyed the last five years - even if he bags Kalonzo - would only have managed to improve his position by 300,000 votes (if he bags Kalonzo) - or would have lost (as of today) - 700,000 mores votes than he had in 2017.
Conclusion.
Beating Ruto remain only possible with brazen rigging.
Data later.
-
Total Uhuru Raila 17 Cast Uhuru 17 Raila 17 Others Ruto Raila MPs Ruto Net Gain/Loss Total Net Loss Total Profit/Loss Total Profit/Loss
MOMBASA 580,644 99,190 238,809 342,337 29 70 1 136935 205402 ODM
PERCENTAGE (%) 28.97% 69.76% 100.00% 40.00% 60.00% 11% -9.76% 37,760 -33,412
KWALE 281,102 43,694 138,565 185,204 24 75 2 83342 101862 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 23.59% 74.82% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% 21% -19.82% 39,652 -36,707
KILIFI 508,425 49,575 274,179 327,831 15 84 1 TCTC
PERCENTAGE (%) 15.12% 83.63% 100.00% 40.00% 60.00% 25% -23.63% 81,564 -77,466
TANA RIVER 118,338 40,115 45,067 86,920 46 52 2 TCTC
PERCENTAGE (%) 46.15% 51.85% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% -1% 3.15% -1,000 2,738
LAMU 69,793 23,905 24,421 49,214 49 50 2 TCTC
PERCENTAGE (%) 48.57% 49.62% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% -4% 5.38% -1,757 2,648
PERCENTAGE (%) 27.62% 70.99% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% 17% -15.99% 19,584 -18,018
GARISSA 163,350 54,783 54,356 113,236 48 48 4 Jubilee
PERCENTAGE (%) 48.38% 48.00% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% -3% 7.00% -3,827 7,927
WAJIR 162,912 60,508 52,362 118,688 51 44 5 Jubilee
PERCENTAGE (%) 50.98% 44.12% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% -6% 10.88% -7,098 12,913
MANDERA 175,650 112,456 17,984 135,681 83 13 4 Jubilee
PERCENTAGE (%) 82.88% 13.25% 100.00% -83% -13.25% -112,452 -17,978
MARSABIT 141,730 92,696 16,003 110,839 84 14 2 Jubilee
PERCENTAGE (%) 83.63% 14.44% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% -39% 40.56% -42,817 44,956
ISIOLO 75,355 26,746 18,931 54,112 49 35 16 TCTC
PERCENTAGE (%) 49.43% 34.98% 100.00% 45.00% 55.00% -4% 20.02% -2,397 10,833
MERU 702,776 482,580 55,602 543,327 89 10 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 88.82% 10.23% 100.00% 70.00% 30.00% -19% 19.77% -102,254 107,416
THARAKA - NITHI 213,157 162,529 10,355 174,476 93 6 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 93.15% 5.93% 100.00% 75.00% 30.00% -18% 24.07% -31,667 41,996
EMBU 309,731 231,350 17,549 251,182 92 7 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 92.10% 6.99% 100.00% 85.00% 15.00% -7% 8.01% -17,834 20,120
KITUI 474,563 64,652 287,293 359,560 18 80 2 WIPER
PERCENTAGE (%) 17.98% 79.90% 100.00% 25.00% 75.00% 7% -4.90% 25,241 -17,618
MACHAKOS 620,363 82,629 380,018 469,665 18 81 1 WIPER
PERCENTAGE (%) 17.59% 80.91% 100.00% 35.00% 75.00% 17% -5.91% 81,769 -27,757
MAKUENI 423,434 27,388 301,126 332,461 8 91 1 WIPER
PERCENTAGE (%) 8.24% 90.57% 100.00% 25.00% 75.00% 17% -15.57% 55,720 -51,764
NYANDARUA 335,696 286,593 2,286 289,514 99 1 0 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 98.99% 0.79% 100.00% 75.00% 25.00% -24% 24.21% -69,454 70,091
NYERI 457,197 389,410 4,735 395,936 98 1 0 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 98.35% 1.20% 100.00% 85.00% 15.00% -13% 13.80% -52,857 54,639
KIRINYAGA 349,970 297,652 3,120 301,856 99 1 0 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 98.61% 1.03% 100.00% 65.00% 35.00% -34% 33.97% -101,454 102,540
MURANG'A 587,222 498,248 9,122 509,006 98 2 0 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 97.89% 1.79% 100.00% 75.00% 25.00% -23% 23.21% -116,511 118,140
KIAMBU 1,181,076 912,588 69,190 985,152 93 7 0 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 92.63% 7.02% 100.00% 65.00% 35.00% -28% 27.98% -272,197 275,646
TURKANA 191,435 62,611 96,336 160,912 39 60 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 38.91% 59.87% 100.00% 50.00% 50.00% 11% -9.87% 17,845 -15,882
WEST POKOT 180,241 97,620 52,120 151,086 65 34 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 64.61% 34.50% 100.00% 75.00% 25.00% 10% -9.50% 15,698 -14,353
SAMBURU 82,794 31,746 31,615 63,952 50 49 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 49.64% 49.44% 100.00% 50.00% 50.00% 0% 0.56% 230 358
TRANS NZOIA 339,715 110,489 134,312 247,726 45 54 1 FORDK
PERCENTAGE (%) 44.60% 54.22% 100.00% 75.00% 25.00% 30% -29.22% 75,309 -72,386
UASIN GISHU 450,159 265,704 72,378 341,575 78 21 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 77.79% 21.19% 100.00% 85.00% 15.00% 7% -6.19% 24,628 -21,143
ELGEYO/MARAKWET 180,679 138,634 7,102 146,507 95 5 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 94.63% 4.85% 100.00% 96.00% 4.00% 1% -0.85% 2,007 -1,245
NANDI 346,102 235,243 33,848 270,895 87 12 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 86.84% 12.49% 100.00% 90.00% 10.00% 3% -2.49% 8,560 -6,745
BARINGO 232,311 161,423 27,748 190,411 85 15 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 84.78% 14.57% 100.00% 75.00% 25.00% -10% 10.43% -18,622 19,860
LAIKIPIA 246,693 177,772 20,694 199,502 89 10 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 89.11% 10.37% 100.00% 75.00% 25.00% -14% 14.63% -28,150 29,187
NAKURU 949,971 639,297 110,857 754,405 85 15 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 84.74% 14.69% 100.00% 70.00% 30.00% -15% 15.31% -111,199 115,499
NAROK 341,761 149,376 129,360 281,961 53 46 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 52.98% 45.88% 100.00% 65.00% 40.00% 12% -5.88% 33,892 -16,579
KAJIADO 411,267 186,481 138,405 326,275 57 42 0 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 57.15% 42.42% 100.00% 60.00% 40.00% 3% -2.42% 9,299 -7,896
KERICHO 375,691 272,974 19,448 294,215 93 7 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 92.78% 6.61% 100.00% 95.00% 5.00% 2% -1.61% 6,532 -4,737
BOMET 322,024 229,599 31,822 263,777 87 12 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 87.04% 12.06% 100.00% 95.00% 5.00% 8% -7.06% 20,997 -18,623
KAKAMEGA 743,929 63,399 483,157 553,377 11 87 1 UDA
PERCENTAGE (%) 11.46% 87.31% 100.00% 87.31% 87.31% 87.31% 50.00% 50.00% 87.31% 39% -37.31% 213,271 -206,465
VIHIGA 272,415 18,275 179,140 200,392 9 89 1 ANC
PERCENTAGE (%) 9.12% 89.39% 100.00% 50.00% 50.00% 41% -39.39% 81,920 -78,934
BUNGOMA 559,866 126,475 284,786 418,612 30 68 2 TCTC
PERCENTAGE (%) 30.21% 68.03% 100.00% 70.00% 30.00% 40% -38.03% 166,566 -159,198
BUSIA 351,087 34,239 239,296 275,636 12 87 1 ODM
PERCENTAGE (%) 12.42% 86.82% 100.00% 25.00% 75.00% 13% -11.82% 34,675 -32,58
PERCENTAGE (%) 0.66% 99.11% 100.00% 2.00% 98.00% 1% -1.11% 5,080 -4,208
KISUMU 539,593 7,411 369,963 378,903 2 98 0 ODM
PERCENTAGE (%) 1.96% 97.64% 100.00% 2.00% 98.00% 0% 0.36% 152 1,364
PERCENTAGE (%) 0.49% 99.34% 100.00% 2.00% 98.00% 2% -1.34% 6,085 -5,400
MIGORI 388,700 46,112 274,161 322,261 14 85 1
PERCENTAGE (%) 14.31% 85.07% 100.00% 20.00% 80.00% 6% -5.07% 18,337 -16,339
KISII 546,682 174,213 223,155 403,665 43 55 2 ODM
PERCENTAGE (%) 43.16% 55.28% 100.00% 35.00% 65.00% -8% 9.72% -32,939 39,236
PERCENTAGE (%) 52.00% 46.49% 100.00% 40.00% 60.00% -12% 13.51% -24,580 27,673
NAIROBI CITY 2,251,929 791,291 828,826 1,629,894 49 51 1 TCTC
PERCENTAGE (%) 48.55% 50.85% 100.00% 40.00% 60.00% -9% 9.15% -139,356 149,135
-208,052 291,481
-
Raila biggest gains will be in
1)Kiambu - almost 275k
2) Nairobi - almost 150k
3) Nakuru, Mandera,Muranga, Kirinyanga & Meru - above 100-150k
Ruto biggest gains
1) Kakamega - 230k
2) Bungoma - 160K
3) Vihiga, Kilifi, Tranzoi, Mombasa - 80-100K.
Ruto has many small gains all over the country and will only do worse than Uhuru in GEMA & GUSII