Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on May 18, 2022, 04:34:43 PM
-
Raila 39 v 35 Ruto
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/raila-odinga-now-leads-in-presidential-race-tifa-poll-3819418
-
Karua way more popular than Gachagua
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-18-karua-most-popular-running-mate-tifa-poll/
-
Mizani will come with 42 Ruto 33 Raila. Kenya polls means little. Combing villages and bring people to the polls is Key. Right now, Kalonzo is the determinant of wether Raila has a fighting chance or not. I hear State knows things are thick so they may sanction Kalonzo to run so it can take Ruto Kamba votes away. The problem is once that happen, Kenya Kwanza will change strategy and go all in to win round one by telling Kambas the necessary.
-
That was their initial strategy - they will try to go for Raila 2013 plan - which to try force a run-off - but such strategy cannot work because they would have needed Luhyas to run, Kambas to run, even Matiangi to run in Gusii, Gideon to run. That planned had worked when OKA was united. ANC won in Kakamega, Ford-K in Bungoma and Kalonzo in Machakos. That was good strategy.
Now it's just kalonzo - you take out 10-20 percent Ruto will get from Ukambani if Kalonzo got hard on Ukambani - that is maybe 150-200K votes - I believe Ruto is already 0.5M plus 50 percent - and if not, it is easy to fix if turnout is mobilized in Kalenjin and GEMA.
Mizani will come with 42 Ruto 33 Raila. Kenya polls means little. Combing villages and bring people to the polls is Key. Right now, Kalonzo is the determinant of wether Raila has a fighting chance or not. I hear State knows things are thick so they may sanction Kalonzo to run so it can take Ruto Kamba votes away. The problem is once that happen, Kenya Kwanza will change strategy and go all in to win round one by telling Kambas the necessary.