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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on May 17, 2022, 10:01:39 PM

Title: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 17, 2022, 10:01:39 PM: Opinion poll conducted on 17th and released on the 18th - smells

Instruction from Office of the President...put Hon Raila/Karua at 52 to 54%. DP RUTO/Gachagua 42 to 44%. Kalonzo/Sunkuli at 2 %...Bure Kabisa! pic.twitter.com/bZEZi2IhfK
— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) May 17, 2022
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: Githunguri on May 17, 2022, 10:13:53 PM: Hata wewe go pay mizani poll to kickstat chaguaruto
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 17, 2022, 10:15:16 PM: Ruto knows what works and what doesnt work;
Kalongolongo kama hiyo
You deal with reality
Quote from: Githunguri on May 17, 2022, 10:13:53 PM
Hata wewe go pay mizani poll to kickstat chaguaruto
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: Dear Mami on May 17, 2022, 10:18:10 PM: What if it comes out saying KK is ahead?
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 17, 2022, 10:31:18 PM: Of course it's ahead but Ruto should ignore it because we have seen that game before.
Ruto should campaign like he is at 40 percent - while in reality he is at 55 percent.
He would not want to repeat Raila 2007 blunders.
Everyday is an opportunity to put it beyond Raila.
So expect Ruto to campaign very vigorously.
I believe the last thing to do in Nairobi is launch the Manifesto.
Then hit the ground running..until 8th August.
Quote from: Dear Mami on May 17, 2022, 10:18:10 PM
What if it comes out saying KK is ahead?
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Heavy Hitter! on May 17, 2022, 10:39:20 PM: Quote from: RV Pundit on May 17, 2022, 10:31:18 PM
Of course it's ahead but Ruto should ignore it because we have seen that game before.
Ruto should campaign like he is at 40 percent - while in reality he is at 55 percent.
He would not want to repeat Raila 2007 blunders.
Everyday is an opportunity to put it beyond Raila.
So expect Ruto to campaign very vigorously.
I believe the last thing to do in Nairobi is launch the Manifesto.
Then hit the ground running..until 8th August.
Quote from: Dear Mami on May 17, 2022, 10:18:10 PM
What if it comes out saying KK is ahead?

They will do economic meeting with the remaining counties the next few weeks then blitz the neighborhood for 60 days straight. 6 to 10 at night!
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:33:14 AM: Now releasing
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:35:23 AM: Says Raila popularer than Ruto in Ukambani, Coast, Western, Nairobi and Nyanza. Ruto popular in Mt kenya, Central Rv, Northern(Turkana to Somali) and Sout (Maasai)
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:37:35 AM: This looks fake. No way ODM is anywhere near UDA. Jubilee has disappeared in the radar.
As of now, no political party attracts the support of more than one-third of Kenyans (UDA at 29%), and another one-quarter (25%) who do likewise with ODM. Aside from a small minority who identify with Jubilee (3%),#TifaElectionsBarometer pic.twitter.com/NzhiPOEzgr
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) May 18, 2022
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:38:56 AM: Predictably they pumped Raila. Now they say he is leading Ruto. Claim Gachagua unkown.
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:41:07 AM: (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTBxTsBX0AA0-XW?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:41:56 AM: (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTBxn0AXsAAwp6J?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:43:32 AM: Rather more Kenyans expressed support for Azimio La Umoja/One Kenya Alliance than for the Kenya Kwanza Alliance (38% vs. 28%). But this leaves nearly the same proportion (31%) who identify with neither.#TifaElectionsBarometer pic.twitter.com/48n8LbZFFw
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) May 18, 2022
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 11:50:11 AM: Raila ahead of Ruto - funded and delivered by harambee house
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTBzTWnWYAEKb_T?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: Nowayhaha on May 18, 2022, 12:39:21 PM: Whoevee believes Kenyan polls is bewitched.
The Tifa polls goes to confirm Kenyan polls have never been credible.
Still RV is always interested in them.
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on May 18, 2022, 01:01:27 PM: Quote from: Nowayhaha on May 18, 2022, 12:39:21 PM
Whoevee believes Kenyan polls is bewitched.
The Tifa polls goes to confirm Kenyan polls have never been credible.
Still RV is always interested in them.
Precisely,by Kura it will be the usual 52 baba vs 46 Ruto, they tried this from 2007 never cracked mlima people and by the way have never met any mlima person with any interest in opinion polls I guess this is a reserve for other kabilas.
Ruto on real politik is polling between 55-60 if elections are not tampered with Ruto will crash baba first round conclusively
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 01:06:15 PM: I know how to pick rice; you cant refuse mwea rice because there a few stones in there;
Then I do my MOASS; after cooking all the stew; and it always near perfect.

Opinion poll - if you have an eye for detail - you can easily tell where there is a problem
Either cooked or innocent deliberate errors
This what political analyst ought to do

So there hard ones - these are comspolitian areas - or areas with many sub-tribes like coast (9 in mijikenda alone, plus taita, tavetas, dawidas, orma, wardei, bajunis, kikuyus, luos, crazy) or luhya (17)
Those i expect almost every opinion pollster to get wrong - because really hard to sample.

Then homegenous ones - Ukambani or say Nyeri or Kericho - those are easy one
For example if you go to Kericho or Bomet - and you report Ruto is doing 50 percent - then hapo uko na shida.
To claim Raila is leading in Ukambani - then maybe you sample too early - and news of Kalonzo running has not filtered?
or of course youre paid.

The evil is in the details.
I watch the details, the trends, and name it.

But opinion polls are very important - we just need to keep improving their accuracy and credibility - until it matches MOASS

Quote from: Nowayhaha on May 18, 2022, 12:39:21 PM
Whoevee believes Kenyan polls is bewitched.
The Tifa polls goes to confirm Kenyan polls have never been credible.
Still RV is always interested in them.
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: RV Pundit on May 18, 2022, 01:07:30 PM: Without Kalonzo yes.
With Kalonzo running - reduce Baba by 8-10 percent.
Make that 36-38 percent.

Quote from: Njuri Ncheke on May 18, 2022, 01:01:27 PM
Precisely,by Kura it will be the usual 52 baba vs 46 Ruto, they tried this from 2007 never cracked mlima people and by the way have never met any mlima person with any interest in opinion polls I guess this is a reserve for other kabilas.
Ruto on real politik is polling between 55-60 if elections are not tampered with Ruto will crash baba first round conclusively
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: Pajero on May 18, 2022, 01:09:27 PM: Polls are scientific,problem is that we are Africans and Africa is our business.Just accept and move on.
Title: Re: Jumpstarting Rarua - an attempt at fake momentum
Post by: Nowayhaha on May 18, 2022, 01:50:11 PM: Invalid Tweet ID