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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Dear Mami on May 17, 2022, 02:06:11 PM
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Apparently, amehata three main deadlines by weeks and months, required to run for president for either Wiper or an independent ticket. So what's going on? They also haven't gone to court to challenge Azimio coalition. Ni nini hawa wakamba wanafanya/panga? Sielewi. Even if he comes back to Azimio as no. 3, I don't see the advantage of these shenanigans. Why not just accept outright and explain to your people polepole even if they're pissed, instead of these strange games? Yaani. Sielewi. His options are three:
a) Azimio Offer
b) Join KK as UDA member (not Wiper) and get MDVD spot.
c) Quit Politics
Sioni ya nne.
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Which deadlines.
Look like they are still negotiating - if you read below - they could still breathe some live to dead Raila bid
We will know if he is seriously running when his present papers to IEBC - deadline 10th June.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-16-how-railas-last-ditch-efforts-to-get-kalonzo-failed/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter
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Which deadlines.
Look like they are still negotiating - if you read below - they could still breathe some live to dead Raila bid
We will know if he is seriously running when his present papers to IEBC - deadline 10th June.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-16-how-railas-last-ditch-efforts-to-get-kalonzo-failed/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter
I've seen him on KTN talk of deadlines for submitting presidential names to IEBC (not Running mate) which is already passed, plus Wiper needs to to have given 21 days notice for nomination of said candidate. Also heard elsewhere, to run in new party (if Wiper is stuck in Azimio) he should've resigned from old party three months prior to nomination. That means Azimio and KK are his only options, nothing like third force unless he wants to be Wanjigi Minister? So I don't understand what they're doing. They also haven't gone to court to challenge Azimio. Just looks like a confused bunch. We all know its either no. 3 with Azimio or no. 3 with KK; hakuna ingine. Someone explain hawa wakamba and their strategy to me. Siwaelewi kapsaaaa.
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Almost everyone in Wiper is a lawyer including Kalonzo.
Let'a see if they ticked the boxes.
I am also 50:50 if they will run.
1) Gideon Moi presence mean all is not lost for Uhuru
2) Kalonzo was wishy-washy and doesnt look like he will run - sounds like he was testing waters.
The problem is Ukambani - people may go ahead of him
Ruto will definitely attack Ukambani - now that Kalonzo is weak and Raila cannot dare show up.
That will put pressure on Kalonzo - and his wiper.
Because for now they look foolish and directionless.
I've seen him on KTN talk of deadlines for submitting presidential names to IEBC (not Running mate) which is already passed, plus Wiper needs to to have given 21 days notice for nomination of said candidate. Also heard elsewhere, to run in new party (if Wiper is stuck in Azimio) he should've resigned from old party three months prior to nomination. That means Azimio and KK are his only options, nothing like third force unless he wants to be Wanjigi Minister? So I don't understand what they're doing. They also haven't gone to court to challenge Azimio. Just looks like a confused bunch. We all know its either no. 3 with Azimio or no. 3 with KK; hakuna ingine. Someone explain hawa wakamba and their strategy to me. Siwaelewi kapsaaaa.
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Wacha huyo mkamba asimame,enough of afri cinema, alternatively you can take him to UDA.
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Ruto will definitely attack Ukambani - now that Kalonzo is weak and Raila cannot dare show up.
That will put pressure on Kalonzo - and his wiper.
It's possible even Ruto has reserved no. 3 for him. Because it's not been given unconditionally to MDVD, with the 70% delivery condition (impossible). I don't see a good reason for Ruto to have such conditions for Mulembe nation apart from him hoping Mr. Melon will take it. Anyone else apart from Kaloi taking it from MaDVD seems like a disaster.
Anyhow, I don't know if these claims about time are true. Lets wait and see. Me? I don't see the strategy. Whether it's Azimio or KK, the best offer is no. 3. Take it and explain to your people polepole, or nenda kapumzike Kindiki-style. Whether now or after August, the offer is not getting better than no. 3, from either side.
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Kalonzo has to accept to take something less than DPORK
He has refused since 2012 to hear anything less.
Ruto is forthright and upfront - he tells you early - so you and he also avoid suprises at worse time.
Raila promised Kalonzo everything - everytime - lying to him almost at will
In fact he told him in 2013 - win or lose - you run next time - did the same in 2017 - the changed names of coalition.
Now it obvious DPORK is out of the table from both side.
He is going to be thinking the 3rd best place.
And how do it.
Pre-election with Azimio or Kenya Kwanza.
Post-election with whoever if he can force a run-off.
Run-off his his best move forward if they can force it somehow
Ruto is very strong ....and has yet to engage full gears to nails the last few numbers.
So run-off could end up in the wind again.
So he is really has no options but listen from offers from both sides
In Kenya Kwanza - there is already MaDVD+Weta taking 30 percent - GEMA the same - so it would have to be regonitiated - for luhya to go down 25, Ruto side to drop 15 - and give him 20 percemt
Raila can and will promise anything but has no intention of respecting leave alone honouring Kalonzo.
If I was Kalonzo - I would say Ruto tosha - Ruto goes to 63 percent like Kibaki - and election ends.
Ruto can give him the campaign money as compensation.
If he say Raila tosha - it the usual- no guarantee they can beat Ruto- without 50 percent of GEMA.
The Maths is Easy to Run.
So you would be signing a deal for 3rd time in the bush :)
Best move forward...Ask Kenya Kwanza to create for him 20 percent - 3-4 ministers - become maDVD deputy & foreign affairs minister, get all Ruto campaign finances, and UDA to withdraw all candidates competing in Ukambani. Completely RISK FREE MOVE. This would be 2002 Move.
Next best move ... Go for run-off and force either side to give him 40 percent or they forget it. This would be 2007 Move.
Next go back to Azimio...2013/2017 Move and risk a run against united GEMA+RV machine - Risk losing Ukambani as people see he's become too much of embarrassment
It's possible even Ruto has reserved no. 3 for him. Because it's not been given unconditionally to MDVD, with the 70% delivery condition (impossible). I don't see a good reason for Ruto to have such conditions for Mulembe nation apart from him hoping Mr. Melon will take it. Anyone else apart from Kaloi taking it from MaDVD seems like a disaster.
Anyhow, I don't know if these claims about time are true. Lets wait and see. Me? I don't see the strategy. Whether it's Azimio or KK, the best offer is no. 3. Take it and explain to your people polepole, or nenda kapumzike Kindiki-style. Whether now or after August, the offer is not getting better than no. 3, from either side.
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He either goes back to Azimio or joins KK.Hakuna mambo ya kati kati.Even Kambas are getting tired.
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Wacha huyo mkamba asimame,enough of afri cinema, alternatively you can take him to UDA.
Lol, amechanganyikiwa for real. They should put his picture next to "Indecision" in the dictionary. :D Msee ako so confused from one hour to the next. Wah! He even makes softie tumbocrat/cerelac MaDVD seem like a leader in comparison :o he he.
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Most confused fellow in Kenya today.
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Most confused fellow in Kenya today.
:D I've seen a comment saying he's like a kid mwenye hajui akule nini kati ya mabuyu ama sukari nguru :D
Wacha nipumzike again from nipate till we finish this stage of choosing final camps. I thought it'd be over after running-mates but bado . . .
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Somebody tell otiende not to open his filthy mouth again...the most important thing right now is for Kalonzo to be on the ballot now that he is not in azimio.
Kambas are very vengeful,don't provoke Kalonzo.utampata uda
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Somebody tell otiende not to open his filthy mouth again...the most important thing right now is for Kalonzo to be on the ballot now that he is not in azimio.
Kambas are very vengeful,don't provoke Kalonzo.utampata uda
Sitaki UDA wanitete
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Somebody tell otiende not to open his filthy mouth again...the most important thing right now is for Kalonzo to be on the ballot now that he is not in azimio.
Kambas are very vengeful,don't provoke Kalonzo.utampata uda
Mutua wa chapchap is already on the ground throughout Kambaland telling wakamba Azimio's plan from day one was to delay Kalonzo making decision until the last minute. Wakambas are very pissed and they are unanimous, if Kalonzo run we still vote UDA to teach baba a lesson. Ruto, the man with God the father is teaching drunken godfathers in hotels and boardrooms a lesson whether you like it or not. By 2025, Kenyatta empire wealth will be minus 50 Billion; Raila will be fighting stress and aging in his deathbed in Bondo! Ruto ni moto wa kuotea mbali sana! Respect, Integrity, peace, hard work, country, possibilities, God and family; That is Samoei Ruto
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Somebody tell otiende not to open his filthy mouth again...the most important thing right now is for Kalonzo to be on the ballot now that he is not in azimio.
Kambas are very vengeful,don't provoke Kalonzo.utampata uda
Sitaki UDA wanitete
UDA, you heard the man, didn't you? Leave the hall.
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Yeah I am seeing 40:60; Ruto get 40 percent; Kalonzo 60 percent; even if Kalonzo go back to Azimio; the after taste on their mouth will see Ruto getting 30 percent without campaigning; Muthama and Mutua look more intelligent than Kalonzo. Kambas are seeing maDVD+Weta treated with respect - and Kalonzo treated like trash.
Ruto has made it look easy - but that mask incredible amount of hardwork and resources he has invested - when folks were laughing at him - he has relentlessly campaigned for 15yrs since I think 2006.
For more than 15yrs - Ruto has been at it - grinding - and now it's know matter of bringing it home. I believe he started his quest for presidency somewhere in 2006/2007
Mutua wa chapchap is already on the ground throughout Kambaland telling wakamba Azimio's plan from day one was to delay Kalonzo making decision until the last minute. Wakambas are very pissed and they are unanimous, if Kalonzo run we still vote UDA to teach baba a lesson. Ruto, the man with God the father is teaching drunken godfathers in hotels and boardrooms a lesson whether you like it or not. By 2025, Kenyatta empire wealth will be minus 50 Billion; Raila will be fighting stress and aging in his deathbed in Bondo! Ruto ni moto wa kuotea mbali sana! Respect, Integrity, peace, hard work, country, possibilities, God and family; That is Samoei Ruto
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Yeah I am seeing 40:60; Ruto get 40 percent; Kalonzo 60 percent; even if Kalonzo go back to Azimio; the after taste on their mouth will see Ruto getting 30 percent without campaigning; Muthama and Mutua look more intelligent than Kalonzo. Kambas are seeing maDVD+Weta treated with respect - and Kalonzo treated like trash.
Ruto has made it look easy - but that mask incredible amount of hardwork and resources he has invested - when folks were laughing at him - he has relentlessly campaigned for 15yrs since I think 2006.
For more than 15yrs - Ruto has been at it - grinding - and now it's know matter of bringing it home. I believe he started his quest for presidency somewhere in 2006/2007
Mutua wa chapchap is already on the ground throughout Kambaland telling wakamba Azimio's plan from day one was to delay Kalonzo making decision until the last minute. Wakambas are very pissed and they are unanimous, if Kalonzo run we still vote UDA to teach baba a lesson. Ruto, the man with God the father is teaching drunken godfathers in hotels and boardrooms a lesson whether you like it or not. By 2025, Kenyatta empire wealth will be minus 50 Billion; Raila will be fighting stress and aging in his deathbed in Bondo! Ruto ni moto wa kuotea mbali sana! Respect, Integrity, peace, hard work, country, possibilities, God and family; That is Samoei Ruto
Yes, the national infrastructure is there after decade of funding women groups, churches, schools, communities, elders and anything in between. Ruto has masses roughly 8 million behind him that will not flinch until the last minute. The only thing Azimio have is rigging, but Chebukati is william's point man. His security should be beefed up because Chebukati will never be compromised to rig Ruto.
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Well, it seems Wiper secretly submitted Kalonzo's name to IEBC as a Presidential candidate in April, so this has been the plan all along. Third horse.
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Azimio offer to Kalonz0 - Chief Minister & 20 percent of gov - underwritten by utmost bad faith and signed with bad blood.
Will he take it? If he is a fool - yes. Seem like a copy-paste from maDVD deal
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He is a lawyer and has crossed all the ts and Is.
Azimio cannot take fitina about agreement that is top secret to Chebukati.
So if he is serious - he will run.
And run he will because for now it most sensisble move
It consolidate his kamba vote - and Azimio offer cannot be take off the table.
It there waiting for Kalonzo because there is no path to Raila victory to exclude Kalonzo.
He can take it now - or in the run-off if that scenario pans out.
His biggest worry of course is Ruto winning in 1st round- Mt kenya rejecting Raila totally - and Ruto crossing the 50 percent mark despite all monkey games that Azimio will throw
Well, it seems Wiper secretly submitted Kalonzo's name to IEBC as a Presidential candidate in April, so this has been the plan all along. Third horse.
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So either Run to try to maximize his returns in case of run-off - or completely make 2022 irrelevant by asking Ruto for the same deal that Azimio is openly and desperately hawking ( I appoint Kalonzo Chief Minister :) - as People President). That would mean Ruto,MaDVD and everyone donating one minister to Kalonzo....
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Well, it seems Wiper secretly submitted Kalonzo's name to IEBC as a Presidential candidate in April, so this has been the plan all along. Third horse.
Third Horse means Azimio's 1.2 million votes vanished. Kenya Kwanza votes are intact and will cross 50+1. If they talk rigging, DP's right hand man Chebukati and IEBC folks are there too to deliver. Ruto's presidency and campaign is like Category 5 hurricane in Louisiana coast! simply unstoppable!
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There is a reason why Mudavadi and Wetangula turned to Ruto.
That Azimio deal was a killer . We said it here Uhuru passed the Election laws Kimaguvu for a reason.
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So either Run to try to maximize his returns in case of run-off - or completely make 2022 irrelevant by asking Ruto for the same deal that Azimio is openly and desperately hawking ( I appoint Kalonzo Chief Minister :) - as People President). That would mean Ruto,MaDVD and everyone donating one minister to Kalonzo....
I thought Ruto the RVgema PORK long appointed Kindiki AG, before that Gachagua was Interior CS. Ichung'wa Treasury CS - which is also Mdvd job :)
Deputy Chief Minister is bad joke - no 4 akin to Isaac in NASA - for a man refusing anything less than DPORK. Issue of Mutuas and Muthamas also complicates things. Lots of hard work has already been put into Azimio-OKA deal including zoning.
Importantly: Ruto has VERY POOR RECORD on zoning... UDA has marooned Mdvd in Vihiga and displaced Kurias, Kingis, Mutuas and everyone else. Kk ukora is only sustained by Mdvd utter stupidity. Murkomens must really laugh behind his back. I saw him speaking at Gachagua event.. poor fool has embraced his role as junior partner. At least Kalonzo has pride.
Just forget Kalonzo joining kwekwe.
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https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-17-12-day-window-that-could-reunite-raila-kalonzo/
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Which is which ?
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-17-12-day-window-that-could-reunite-raila-kalonzo/
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Kalonzo got everyone spinning. Either way, the damage is done. UDA will reap big because Kalonzo'e firepower to deliver the usual 98% to mganga.
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Anything can change as long as it's re-nogitiated in good faith and nobody complains.
That is why team Ruto is intact post nomination post running mate
Politics is fluid and dynamic.
If Kallonzo for example move - people will move.
What Ruto has as an advantage - he is reliable and more trustworthy - and will negotiate in good faith.
It's not Uhuru or Raila - my way or highway.
I thought Ruto the RVgema PORK long appointed Kindiki AG, before that Gachagua was Interior CS. Ichung'wa Treasury CS - which is also Mdvd job :)
Deputy Chief Minister is bad joke - no 4 akin to Isaac in NASA - for a man refusing anything less than DPORK. Issue of Mutuas and Muthamas also complicates things. Lots of hard work has already been put into Azimio-OKA deal including zoning.
Importantly: Ruto has VERY POOR RECORD on zoning... UDA has marooned Mdvd in Vihiga and displaced Kurias, Kingis, Mutuas and everyone else. Kk ukora is only sustained by Mdvd utter stupidity. Murkomens must really laugh behind his back. I saw him speaking at Gachagua event.. poor fool has embraced his role as junior partner. At least Kalonzo has pride.
Just forget Kalonzo joining kwekwe.
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You never know with MKamba; Things are thick in semi-arid areas :)
Anyway it would be very stupid to take a deal like that.
Their best move is to force re-run and then negotiate from point of strength
Now what is signing going to help if there is not good faith.
Second best move - take assured stuff from Ruto team.
Which is which ?
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-17-12-day-window-that-could-reunite-raila-kalonzo/
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You never know with MKamba; Things are thick in semi-arid areas :)
Anyway it would be very stupid to take a deal like that.
Their best move is to force re-run and then negotiate from point of strength
Now what is signing going to help if there is not good faith.
Second best move - take assured stuff from Ruto team.
Which is which ?
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-17-12-day-window-that-could-reunite-raila-kalonzo/
They will avoid third horse because they Know Ruto is Kobe Bryant of politics. First round and it is 53%! They will get it now because nothing is promised! Either way their firepower is gone. Max they can give to mganga is 68%
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If you see what ANC is up against - you know why Kalonzo is LEAST LIKELY to join Ruto.
PAA, Muturi DP, Kuria CCK, Kiunjuri TSP, Mutua Chap Chap - what do these parties get in KK - that can signal to Kalonzo that Ruto is trustworthy?
Anything can change as long as it's re-nogitiated in good faith and nobody complains.
That is why team Ruto is intact post nomination post running mate
Politics is fluid and dynamic.
If Kallonzo for example move - people will move.
What Ruto has as an advantage - he is reliable and more trustworthy - and will negotiate in good faith.
It's not Uhuru or Raila - my way or highway.
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This what folks get by joining Ruto.. according to Jumwa, the agreement was for PAA to fold and leave UDA to roam the field alone
Aisha Jumwa: Kilifi is not Kingi's playground
However, while addressing journalists during a press conference at the UDA Headquarters in Kilifi town, Malindi Member of Parliament Aisha Jumwa dismissed Governor Kingi and said he was going against the agreement that PAA would not field candidates.
Ms Jumwa, the Kilifi UDA governor candidate, asked Mr Kingi to focus on his assignments by the coalition to lead the Kenya Kwanza campaigns in the coastal regions.
It was agreed during the meeting that there would be no zoning in Kilifi and UDA, the mother party in the Kenya Kwanza coalition would field candidates, she said.
According to Ms Jumwa, she initiated talks for Governor Kingi to join Kenya Kwanza and that there was no part in the agreement that stated that PAA was to field candidates.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/aisha-jumwa-kilifi-is-not-kingi-s-playground-3818288