Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on April 15, 2022, 06:16:15 AM
-
Absolutely amazing work done here.
Free, fair and free nomination
Contestant have to accept the outcome.
For the people spoke.
Like was prophesized by Kalenjin prophets when Ruto become PORK the country will heal.
-
Most Mps have gone home.
As expected it bloodbath for the incumbents.
You underperform you go home
-
Most Mps have gone home.
As expected it bloodbath for the incumbents.
You underperform you go home
I feel sorry for Cate Waruguru. Hon Amin Deddy alipitia katikati
-
Ruto - spoke - and gave lot of kudos to Veronica Maina
-
But opinion polls had that Somalia dude leading by huge margins. Kiunjuri is going to get slaughtered by Amin Deddy. When you see a non local winning - be afraid - because they are exceptional - for locals to look for somali.
I feel sorry for Cate Waruguru. Hon Amin Deddy alipitia katikati
-
Shock results for me was Sossion losing in Bomet.
-
So far I havent heard cries of rigging - the losers knows it was free, fair and brutal verdict from wananchi...most elections results were emphatic win...nothing close...maybe Kiambu.
-
This hustler won - because hustler message is home - leadership is for everyone - not the rich and entitled
Invalid Tweet ID
-
MCA rout - most areas - MCAS gone home
-
Btw 100-200 polling centers had issues - its 99.5 percent score.
-
Do you now believe me , GEMA is locked for Ruto with exception of Kiambu ? You thought Muranga and Meru will be a problem. Those are the areas which hate Raila to the fullest.
So far I havent heard cries of rigging - the losers knows it was free, fair and brutal verdict from wananchi...most elections results were emphatic win...nothing close...maybe Kiambu.
-
I believe average kikuyu in mombasa or kiambu or kericho simply hate Jakom. I dont understand why Kiambu is different. Maybe because Uhuru comes from there? Maybe part of it is Nairobi and comsopolitan?
Do you now believe me , GEMA is locked for Ruto with exception of Kiambu ? You thought Muranga and Meru will be a problem. Those are the areas which hate Raila to the fullest.
-
I think fuel shortage contributed to low turnout in some areas. I think shortage was another BBI aimed at targeting UDA. Am sure soon losers will throng to jubilee for free direct tickets! Fortunately, 9 million UDA members will serve then cold on August general elections
-
Once we get turnout data - it will be clear. But so far I think turnout was okay. In my place...it's around 50 percent...which is excellent for a party primary...considering it was not a holiday (iebc 9th will be)...and violence associated with primaries dissuade many from it...as police normally dont take charge. UDA has shown the way.
I think fuel shortage contributed to low turnout in some areas. I think shortage was another BBI aimed at targeting UDA. Am sure soon losers will throng to jubilee for free direct tickets! Fortunately, 9 million UDA members will serve then cold on August general elections
-
UDAku echo chamber :D
-
(https://scontent.fnbo6-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/278126880_2137139059785971_6808797471483086321_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_eui2=AeGFosy6PWAFEbKbFtgvQgFToxkDM3FO8AOjGQMzcU7wA4Rc600kMLEXCjbty9M3Oac&_nc_ohc=a5_tpC1rO70AX_ko5nx&_nc_oc=AQl3xLmWAFhcCg68p5xDDTA6wN8L_bzDJyf80kEW1FVGAN48AnFIYMX_4HxzEf8dsQU&tn=f5ZBI-qo2UD94mjV&_nc_ht=scontent.fnbo6-1.fna&oh=00_AT8D35hs3oPypsSIyGNt07PUdbZXa2LWA7hbQCxEseXqDg&oe=625ECB86)
-
Turnout about 50% in Bomet - which is impressive for a primary
(https://scontent.fnbo6-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/278338643_6619284668110569_7297922447111929179_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_eui2=AeFyQTrwjfn_hEkhvHssDZtHTLsajUUpevVMuxqNRSl69QK1ht1m8SLvuoKU-xlYTaE&_nc_ohc=Cb4eH5YmN-gAX_jsXRV&_nc_ht=scontent.fnbo6-1.fna&oh=00_AT9VjKzVarkLzcus2kxTbM_29rjctCsOJeMfLkI4OOY1AQ&oe=625EDA84)
-
It is politician's nightmare today. Kosgei Jr must be 😡 at his dad for being a past jaCon sympathizer. Cheragei used it to kneecap him. The easiest way to win elections in RV is to remind folks how DP has been hurt by the cabal and their current or past friends! All Nandi MPs except one send home. He argued day and night that he refused the bribe to pass BBI and that might saved him! Hustlers knew BBI was a tool to cut DP to size and one supported it in parliament or county assemblies, chances are the career ended today!
-
Its been brutal for most incumbent- mcas and mps. You expect 60-70 percent failure rate - and so vindicate UDA election.
-
Its been brutal for the most incumbent- mcas and MPs
It is a good trend so that when folks are elected they serve the people. If in Nairobi, they better be passing people-driven legislation and be on TV arguing for the common man. Nonperformers need to be weeded out until we have responsive leaders across the board.
-
As expected, The reason Robinas argument who has more sitting Mps does not hold water. Its not an indicator of popularity nor how citizens will vote. What argument will she use now that we are post nomitation stage.
Its been brutal for most incumbent- mcas and mps. You expect 60-70 percent failure rate - and so vindicate UDA election.
-
Last election it was less 50%. It still an indicator but not the only indicator. That is why one has to factor EVERYTHING - MPS, Opinion polls, Key leaders, Social Media, Mass media, Rallies
So generally weight MPs support with about 40% - meaning 60% dont make it back - so getting support of current Mps - give your less than half the real picture on the ground.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog/previous/2
(https://www.charleshornsby.com/uploads/1/1/4/7/114704363/pic3_orig.png)
eginning with 1969, in that election only 35% of the 158 incumbents elected in 1963 or thereafter were returned by voters. The previous six years had been a period of great change, and the candidates that had been selected by KANU, KADU and the APP in 1963 and then elected on party tickets were facing very different expectations and demands, with a single-party unicameral system, compared to the multi-party bicameral one at independence. Eight MPs (in dark blue above) were in prison, as the KPU had just been banned and Odinga and his close allies jailed without trial.
By 1974, with the political system far more stable and President Kenyatta's rule unchallenged, the proportion of incumbents re-elected rose to 47%. In 1979, it rose even further, to 49%. This was perhaps surprising as it was the first year in office of President Moi, but the competitive first past-the-post system in a no-party state now had it own dynamic, and without extensive rigging, Moi's attempts to drive change were not always successful locally. This was even more notable in the snap election of 1983, when insurgents had less time to prepare their campaigns. Rather than cleansing the political system of his opponents, the 1983 election saw the highest proportion of incumbents re-elected of any election. 1988, the extensively rigged queue-voting elections, saw greater change with just under half of MPs re-elected and a tranche of little known and unpopular placemen installed.
In 1992, with the restoration of multi-party democracy, most of the 'class of 88' were evicted. The changeover was the most fundamental of any election, with only a quarter of incumbents managing the bridge the transition between two systems and a complete new class of politicians entering the "system". In 1997, Moi's last election, the proportion rose once more, to 41%. In 2002, the transitional election which KANU and Uhuru Kenyatta lost, it rose further to 44%. (It seems that long-term the Kenyan political system trends towards a 40-45% re-election rate barring exceptional circumstances). In 2007, the strong performance of ODM candidates and the complex multi-party competitions within the PNU alliance resulted in a sharp fall, to only 34% of incumbents returned. Two-thirds of the MPs in January 2008 had not been there at the dissolution.
In contrast, 2013 was the first election under the second republic, with the number of political offices available doubled, with more constituencies, senators, elected women's representatives (reserved seats for women elected at county level) and governors all up for grabs. Virtually no-one quit after losing the party primaries and virtually all politicians tried to be elected somewhere. 78 out of the 210 incumbent MPs tried to become Senators, Governors, Presidents and Vice-Presidents. The majority lost, but 30 successfully made the transition to the Senate or Governorship. No incumbent tried to become a women’s representative, the county-level role reserved for female politicians as a gender equality affirmative action initiative. The 16 elected female MPs at the dissolution in 2013 all decided to stay with their constituency or become governors or senators.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog/previous/2
By 2017, with the bicameral system and the party fault-lines stabilising and the roles of the various offices better understood, reelection rates would have been expected to rise. In fact, there was still a lot of shifting around, with both Senators and MPs trying to become Governors, now clearly the dominant political posts outside the executive presidency. Re-election rates fell slightly to 42%, as much due to intra-party primary elections as the final contest (this considers a MP who successfully becomes a Governor as for example “re-elected”).
As expected, The reason Robinas argument who has more sitting Mps does not hold water. Its not an indicator of popularity nor how citizens will vote. What argument will she use now that we are post nomitation stage.
Its been brutal for most incumbent- mcas and mps. You expect 60-70 percent failure rate - and so vindicate UDA election.
-
I think shortage was another BBI aimed at targeting UDA
Why would uhuru do that and completely ruin whatever was left of his already tattered legacy? I think someone just messed up somewhere and the timing was bad.
-
Fuel shortage can not be linked to UDA nomination. Was fuel shortage where men in black fought ballot boxes in UDA stronghold and other places? Though you give ideas to struggling party.
-
Robina has always been using Elected politicians as litmus paper. The laet 4 years she has been singing Raila commands Mt Kenya via Uhuru because of so and so elected Mps and Governors . I went all put in 2020 to showproof how many Mps in Mt Kenya never made it back to parliament. Ground and elected Mps are different things . She was all over Nipate with ohh so and so voted for BBI so BBI and Raila are popular. Come Aug 09 she will be suprised why her calculations never worked.
I repeat never follow Opinion polls , never follow elected leaders. Even fake News.
Try as much as possible to listen to the ground.
Last election it was less 50%. It still an indicator but not the only indicator. That is why one has to factor EVERYTHING - MPS, Opinion polls, Key leaders, Social Media, Mass media, Rallies
So generally weight MPs support with about 40% - meaning 60% dont make it back - so getting support of current Mps - give your less than half the real picture on the ground.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog/previous/2
(https://www.charleshornsby.com/uploads/1/1/4/7/114704363/pic3_orig.png)
eginning with 1969, in that election only 35% of the 158 incumbents elected in 1963 or thereafter were returned by voters. The previous six years had been a period of great change, and the candidates that had been selected by KANU, KADU and the APP in 1963 and then elected on party tickets were facing very different expectations and demands, with a single-party unicameral system, compared to the multi-party bicameral one at independence. Eight MPs (in dark blue above) were in prison, as the KPU had just been banned and Odinga and his close allies jailed without trial.
By 1974, with the political system far more stable and President Kenyatta's rule unchallenged, the proportion of incumbents re-elected rose to 47%. In 1979, it rose even further, to 49%. This was perhaps surprising as it was the first year in office of President Moi, but the competitive first past-the-post system in a no-party state now had it own dynamic, and without extensive rigging, Moi's attempts to drive change were not always successful locally. This was even more notable in the snap election of 1983, when insurgents had less time to prepare their campaigns. Rather than cleansing the political system of his opponents, the 1983 election saw the highest proportion of incumbents re-elected of any election. 1988, the extensively rigged queue-voting elections, saw greater change with just under half of MPs re-elected and a tranche of little known and unpopular placemen installed.
In 1992, with the restoration of multi-party democracy, most of the 'class of 88' were evicted. The changeover was the most fundamental of any election, with only a quarter of incumbents managing the bridge the transition between two systems and a complete new class of politicians entering the "system". In 1997, Moi's last election, the proportion rose once more, to 41%. In 2002, the transitional election which KANU and Uhuru Kenyatta lost, it rose further to 44%. (It seems that long-term the Kenyan political system trends towards a 40-45% re-election rate barring exceptional circumstances). In 2007, the strong performance of ODM candidates and the complex multi-party competitions within the PNU alliance resulted in a sharp fall, to only 34% of incumbents returned. Two-thirds of the MPs in January 2008 had not been there at the dissolution.
In contrast, 2013 was the first election under the second republic, with the number of political offices available doubled, with more constituencies, senators, elected women's representatives (reserved seats for women elected at county level) and governors all up for grabs. Virtually no-one quit after losing the party primaries and virtually all politicians tried to be elected somewhere. 78 out of the 210 incumbent MPs tried to become Senators, Governors, Presidents and Vice-Presidents. The majority lost, but 30 successfully made the transition to the Senate or Governorship. No incumbent tried to become a women’s representative, the county-level role reserved for female politicians as a gender equality affirmative action initiative. The 16 elected female MPs at the dissolution in 2013 all decided to stay with their constituency or become governors or senators.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog/previous/2
By 2017, with the bicameral system and the party fault-lines stabilising and the roles of the various offices better understood, reelection rates would have been expected to rise. In fact, there was still a lot of shifting around, with both Senators and MPs trying to become Governors, now clearly the dominant political posts outside the executive presidency. Re-election rates fell slightly to 42%, as much due to intra-party primary elections as the final contest (this considers a MP who successfully becomes a Governor as for example “re-elected”).
As expected, The reason Robinas argument who has more sitting Mps does not hold water. Its not an indicator of popularity nor how citizens will vote. What argument will she use now that we are post nomitation stage.
Its been brutal for most incumbent- mcas and mps. You expect 60-70 percent failure rate - and so vindicate UDA election.
-
And how do you measure "ground" - with a tape measure or barometer?
Robina has always been using Elected politicians as litmus paper. The laet 4 years she has been singing Raila commands Mt Kenya via Uhuru because of so and so elected Mps and Governors . I went all put in 2020 to showproof how many Mps in Mt Kenya never made it back to parliament. Ground and elected Mps are different things . She was all over Nipate with ohh so and so voted for BBI so BBI and Raila are popular. Come Aug 09 she will be suprised why her calculations never worked.
I repeat never follow Opinion polls , never follow elected leaders. Even fake News.
Try as much as possible to listen to the ground.
-
Hata pia nashindwa :) Nowayaha - how do we LISTEN TO THE GROUND? We have to use indicators to measure the ground. I thought you were some pilot - you need ground tools. Otherwise how can you tell what 50 million kenyans think?
Mps now are listening to the ground - their lives literally depend on listening to the ground (so we can listen to them)- that is why most abandoned Uhuru despite bribery and intimidation - so they are very good indicator as you approach election. Earlier they were after their stomach and Robina was a fool to say that.
And how do you measure "ground" - with a tape measure or barometer?