Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on March 26, 2022, 06:05:09 PM
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Overally I think MOAS did slighly better than him
https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
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Interesting - one reason I havent factored is the number of dead votes since 2017 - so apart from lethargy in Mt Kenya - we need to factor that a million dead votes.
Turnout was substantially down on 2013. This was as predicted: the 2013 election had been fought on a new register, which had been only incrementally and partially updated since then, leaving at least a million dead voters still registered, so turnouts were inevitably going to be lower.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
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Charles beat me in governorship by a point - I got 39 right out 47 - he got 40.
The Governorships In the 47 gubernatorial races, the results followed a similar pattern to those for the Presidency. Again, Jubilee won decisively, by a greater margin than predicted. Here too, I underestimated the scale of Jubilee’s victory (though I got the winner right in 40 of 47). I predicted that Jubilee and their KANU, MCC, FAP, PNU, DP, NARC-Kenya and independent allies would win 21-28 Governorships, but they ended up with 29.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
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I think MOAS did better in Mps...
The Parliamentary Races For many Kenyans, the local races for MP and MCA were just as important as those for the President and Governor. There too, the same pattern was seen – Jubilee successes across the board. In the National Assembly, for the 290 constituency MPs my prediction of a 54% pro-Jubilee to 46% pro-NASA win turned out again to be a slight underestimate of the size of Jubilee’s victory. In fact, Jubilee and allies won roughly 60% to just under 40% for NASA. Jubilee did well in Bungoma and Kakamega (where ex-New FORD Kenya members formed the core of their victors), Kisii and Maasailand, and even won a couple of seats in Kitui and Machakos. ODM swept Luo areas and most of the Coast and Wiper most of Ukambani, while Mudavadi’s ANC, FORD-Kenya and ODM competed for the non-Jubilee western seats. Nairobi split 9 seats to Jubilee to 8 to NASA. The majority of MPs were newcomers, with voters clearly demanding change at the local level, particularly in the Kikuyu and Luo homelands, where few incumbents were re-elected.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
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Turn out historical now at 75 percent nationally with regional differential make huge difference..they need to factor that 1/4 of voter's won't cast it..
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I am talking about the blue one although I think the nairobi numbers are garbage. The turnout will be at 75 nationally. I do not see a lot of people traveling to go vote where they are registered