Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 12:27:40 PM
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Pundito,how many votes do you give Ruto in RV,I give him 67%,of possible voters (4.2 M) which is about 2.8M.
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Wacha kuguess numbers.Refer to MOASS.Rv has 14 counties.. kalenjin make the majority in 7..35 percent plus in three..Narok, Nakuru and Tranzoia.Kikuyus makes majority in two..with significant numbers in kajiado,uasin gishu and Narok.Luhyas mostly bukusu makes majority in Tranzoia and have some numbers in Nandi,uasin gishu and Nakuru.Maasai make half of kajiado and Narok.Turkana and Samburu make the rest.Ruto is sweeping kalenjin, Kikuyus and get majority of luhya, maasai,turkana and Samburu..Ruto will therefore get almost 90 percent.. consisting of 55 percent that is kalenjin share...20 percent Kikuyus..then 15 percent from the rest..worse case from my bar stool Ruto takes 88 percent.Kalenjin turnout will be moi era crazy..the sick will be pulled out of hospital
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Whoever thinks Raila has a chance in this years election need a medical check up.
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Ok,just tell me how many votes Ruto gets in RV. in absolute numbers.
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Roughly 23 of national vote will be rift valley votes for Ruto..so if Ruto will be getting 8 million votes just assume about half..four million will be from rift valley...he starts that strong.
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And how much do you give Baba in RV
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And how much do you give Baba in RV
Angalia moas..80k narok..150k kajiado..50k Tranzoia..50k pokot and 90k turkana..50k Samburu..then kidogo kidogo.. roughly 0.5m.I think registered votes ni kitu 5.5m but turnout will be around 75 to 80 percent with kalenjin turning up at 90 percent
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So Ruto will add 1.3 M votes and Raila will loose 0.4 M votes from what he got in 2017 in RV,is that what you are implying.
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I am typing from a bar..yes very likely Raila will loose because Ruto is running pork.. Tranzoia, turkana, kalenjin and even maasai will play homeground.. Kikuyus of RV want peace..and are most bitter with Uhuru.The luhya diaspora likely to vote Ruto too due madvd+weta
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I want us to be objective pundito,let's engage when you are sober,there is no way Ruto can get over 4 M in RV even if all Kalenjins were to vote.
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I want us to be objective pundito,let's engage when you are sober,there is no way Ruto can get over 4 M in RV even if all Kalenjins were to vote.
I did moass when I was sober .check it out...it's very objective.Ruto start very strong in rift valley..then central will hold Nyanza..eastern split equally...western split . everywhere 50 50 with slight lead of Raila in coast n Nairobi.Prepare for big defeat.. especially now that gema iko shida..the gap will go as high as two million..not close..8.5m for Ruto..jakom looking at 6.5m...its pure old reliable ethnic maths
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I asked you where Ruto gets over 4 M votes in RV,yet Kalenjins registered voters are merely 2.2 M.Even if all of them vote,where does the other 2M come from.
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How many GEMA diaspora votes are in RV?
Hint in even in 1997 they were even more that 2M...makes sense ?
I asked you where Ruto gets over 4 M votes in RV,yet Kalenjins registered voters are merely 2.2 M.Even if all of them vote,where does the other 2M come from.
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GEMA diaspora votes are about 1M in RV.700K in Nakuru and 200K in Laikipia and another 100K in Kajiado,Transnzoia and UG.
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LOL
GEMA diaspora votes are about 1M in RV.700K in Nakuru and 200K in Laikipia and another 100K in Kajiado,Transnzoia and UG.
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GEMA diaspora votes are about 1M in RV.700K in Nakuru and 200K in Laikipia and another 100K in Kajiado,Transnzoia and UG.
Wewe ni ngombe Kweli. Kikuyus in my Uasin Gishu alone is almost is over 100K. Laikipia is Kikuyus tupu!
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Ok,Uasin gishu has 586,000 registered voters,what % of these are Kalenjins,Kikuyus, and others.
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Ok,Uasin gishu has 586,000 registered voters,what % of these are Kalenjins,Kikuyus, and others.
Probably 400K are Kales 186K are Kikuyus, Luhya's and Luos. Kikuyus and Luhyas are the majority suggesting DP will scope approximately 520K votes of the total 586!
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It's actually 530,000 not 586,000
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uasingishu 530,000
Nandi 402,000
Elgeyo 211,000
Baringo 271,000
Kericho 429,000
Bomet 300,000
TOTAL 2.1M
HOW WILL YOU MANAGE 4 M IN RV.
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It's actually 530,000 not 586,000
Even if they are 300K majority are kales, Kikuyus and Luhyas; the DP voters. Same will be replicated in El Keiyo, Nandi, Bomet, Kericho, Tranzoia, Nakuru, Baringo, Narok, and Beyond. DP is the darling of vote-rich Rift Valley. The votes that will churn out will shock they system!
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uasingishu 530,000
Nandi 402,000
Elgeyo 211,000
Baringo 271,000
Kericho 429,000
Bomet 300,000
TOTAL 2.1M
HOW WILL YOU MANAGE 4 M IN RV.
Where is Turkana, Samburu, Trans nzoia, Laikipia, Kajiado, Nakuru, West Pokot? Put the numbers of all RV and will tell you?
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Good question on RV vote. Pundit posted on stronghold rigging. Only that give RV 4m votes.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/rvpundit/status/1502621587039789057/photo/1
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It's been sometimes but if I recall kalenjin makes 55 percent of rift valley, Kikuyus 20 percent, the rest share 25 percent..total votes and population roughly 24-25 percent of kenya.Raila is getting little in RV this time round.. outside narok maasai I don't see anywhere else where he has more support than Ruto.. Tranzoia and turkana have flipped.. kajiado maybe 50 50...
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Which 55%,The six counties of Kalenjin have 2.1 M votes,add Kalenjins in Narok,Transzoia and Nakuru about 0.3M totalling to about 2.5M.That makes you about 45% of RV.
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I have done these things since 2005. Just give up.
Which 55%,The six counties of Kalenjin have 2.1 M votes,add Kalenjins in Narok,Transzoia and Nakuru about 0.3M totalling to about 2.5M.That makes you about 45% of RV.
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Now that I am in front of a computer - here are the stats with tribal breakdown
Total RV votes is about 5.1M
Tribal breakdown - Census 2009
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How many voters do we have in the 6 Kalenjin counties combined,list them down plz.
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I have done everything FOR YOU in MOASS. You're stressing yourself bure. Of 5.1m votes...Ruto will score upto 3.2m from rift valley - Raila will score 0.8m (generously gave him 20 percent of Nakuru). I expect about a million voters not to show up - mostly maasai, turkanas, samburus and Luhyas - and even many kikuyus.
How many voters do we have in the 6 Kalenjin counties combined,list them down plz.
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Let's go central,out of the 3M registered,voter turn out expected to be 75%.That makes it 2.2M voters.Hiw much are you giving Ruto here.
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Kiambu Ruto scores 65 percent - elsewhere he scores 75 percent.
That was on account of Uhuru really working his arse off.
Evidence now suggests - this may not be the case.
I think as of today - Ruto support has gone up to 85 percent.
Ruto has the momentum now in Mt kenya.
Sagana III simply failed.
Agreed on turnout - I expect even worse - maybe 70 percent.
If Uhuru really really tries
NYANDARUA 263075 197306 63138
NYERI 356355 267266 85525
KIRINYAGA 274179 205634 65803
MURANGA 456906 342680 109657
KIAMBU 864912 648684 207579
2215427 1661570 531702
Total votes will be 2.2M - with Ruto scoring 1.7M - and Raila scoring 0.5M votes.
Let's go central,out of the 3M registered,voter turn out expected to be 75%.That makes it 2.2M voters.Hiw much are you giving Ruto here.
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I put it at 1.5 for Ruto and 0.7 for Raila.
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Hakuna shida - I have run all those scenarios - Ruto plays 52-53 percent - Raila 45-46 percent - gap from 1-1.5m. I will keep watching - so far I see Ruto doing strongly in Mt Kenya and swinging some suprise in Ukambani - so it's likely he will be adding 2-3 percent nationally - and Raila will be at 43-44 versus Ruto 55-56 - with 1 percent for all the jokers who will run.
I did this couple months ago. Ruto 8.5M - Raila 7M -
I put it at 1.5 for Ruto and 0.7 for Raila.
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Hebu tuende Eastern kwa wameru,1.4 registered,with 75% turn out,about 900K will be voting.Hapa unapea Ruto ngapi.
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Wameru are about 0.9M - 0.8M in Meru and half in Tharaka (0.1m). I think Raila as of now will do well in Meru - gave Ruto 55 & Ruto 45 - obviously this assume Munya get DPORK - if not - it will have same margins with rest of GEMA - Ruto will do more than 75 percent - if Uhuru continues with his lipservice - Ruto goes to 85 percent.
Tharaka,Embu and Mbeeres -0.4m - I see Ruto doing very well here - almost 80 percent.
Eastern tribal composition
County Name Ethnic Composition
MARSABIT Gabra 28%,Borana,Rendile,Burji &others 5%
ISIOLO Borana 37%,Somali,Samburu, Turkana ,Meruu & Gikuyu10%
MERU Meru 94%,Gikuyu,Akamba 2%
THARAKA NITHI Meru 55%,Tharaka 40%,Mbeere & others 5%
EMBU Embu 50%,Mbeere 35%,Gikuyu 7%,Akamba 5%,others 3% ?
KITUI Akamba 97%,Tharaka & others 3%
MACHAKOS Akamba 91%,Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
MAKUENI Akamba 95%,others 5%
Hebu tuende Eastern kwa wameru,1.4 registered,with 75% turn out,about 900K will be voting.Hapa unapea Ruto ngapi.
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You are getting it wrong in western,coast,eastern,Rift valley and central
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Okay put you figures and share - and then we meet on the 10th August - we compare notes. I'd like to see Raila path to victory.
You are getting it wrong in western,coast,eastern,Rift valley and central
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FINAL VOTE FOR RAILA
CENTRAL 0.8
EASTERN 1.5
NAIROBI 1.1
NE 0.4
COAST 1.0
NYANZA 2.1
RV 1.2
WESTERN 0.9
TOTAL 9M
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FINAL VOTES FOR RUTO
CENTRAL 1.5
EASTEEN 0.8
NRB. 0.8
NE. 0.2
COAST. 0.4
NYANZA. 0.3
RV. 3.0
WESTERN 0.7
TOTAL. 7.7M
46%
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Raila 54%
Ruto 46%
Take this to the nearest bank.
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1) Central - possible - total votes 3M - 2.2m at low turnout of 70 perccent from 85 last two election - raila gets 0.8 - he would have to do 36-38 percent of Central - that is almost 40 percent of kikuyus - very very unlikely
2) Eastern - possible - if he carries Akambas - and get 40 percent of Meru-Embu - again unlikely - otherwise inflated by 0.5M
3) Coast - Laughable - 1.8m total votes - the turn out in Coast is always low - total expected cast votes is 1.1m at low of 60s turnout - and you think Raila will get all of it.
County
Turnout, 2013 (%) Turnout, 2017 (%)
Kwale 73.59 67.08
Mombasa 66.62 60.49
Kilifi 64.91 66.23
3) NEP - another laughable proposition - total votes in NEP is 0.57 - expected total votes to be cast will be around 0.4M - and you expect Raila to get 100% of them :)
4) Nyanza - perfect.
5) Rift valley - 1.2m is impossible - best Raila get 0.8M.
6) Western - total expected cast votes will be 1.5m - and you're suggesting Raila will 65 while Ruto gets 35 percent - bhangi mbichi
FINAL VOTE FOR RAILA
CENTRAL 0.8
EASTERN 1.5
NAIROBI 1.1
NE 0.4
COAST 1.0
NYANZA 2.1
RV 1.2
WESTERN 0.9
TOTAL 9M
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In short you're saying -
Raila will get 40% of GEMA
Raila will get 65% of Luhyas
Raila will get 100% of Somalis
Raila will get 90% of Coast
Raila will get 95% of Luos
Raila will get 70 percent of Gusii
Raila will get 100% of Maasai/Turkana/Luhyas
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In RV ,am building in his 2017 numbers,he got 0.9 M votes,they can only go higher factoring the 30% gema votes in Nakuru,Laikipia,kajiado as well as the additional new voters.
Western,I start with busia where 80% is Baba,if the 460,000 voters,Baba starts with a cool 350K votes,Vihiga he gets 70K(Luos around Nyangori and Luanda).Kakamega is 60% Baba ,that's about 300K for Baba.Bungoma Baba will make 40%,giving him about 200K votes,if you total that overall comes to about 0.9M votes.
Coast is dominantly ODM,Baba will do well in Mombaa and kilifi counties scoring over 65%.Both counties have over 1.2 registered voters and the two will give Baba close to 0.7M votes.Taveta,Kwake,Lamu & Tana river will give Baba additional 300 K votes to make it 1M for Baba in coast.
Eastern,with Kambas 1.6 registered voters,1.1 will come out to vote Baba,add 35% of merus,embus,Tharakas which is about 400K.overall Baba gets 1.5 M of eastern votes.
NE,Baba will manage over 65% of the 0.7 registered voters whisc is about 0.4M voters,all leading aspirants are in Azimio.Tgey tend to go with the winning team.
I say the magic number is 30% for Baba in gema nation,this is about 1.5M votes(central, Meru,Tharaka,Embu,Nairobi and gema in RV).,and it's the game changer.
Game over.The gains Ruto has made in coast and western are insignificant to the overall vite basket,1% gain in western or coast is not equal to 1% gain in central gema.
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Go through your numbers - factor reasonable turnout - to play safe - you can average the turnout of 2013 and 2017 - that is your 1st problem.
I have attached 2017 results to assist you.
In RV ,am building in his 2017 numbers,he got 0.9 M votes,they can only go higher factoring the 30% gema votes in Nakuru,Laikipia,kajiado as well as the additional new voters.
Western,I start with busia where 80% is Baba,if the 460,000 voters,Baba starts with a cool 350K votes,Vihiga he gets 70K(Luos around Nyangori and Luanda).Kakamega is 60% Baba ,that's about 300K for Baba.Bungoma Baba will make 40%,giving him about 200K votes,if you total that overall comes to about 0.9M votes.
Coast is dominantly ODM,Baba will do well in Mombaa and kilifi counties scoring over 65%.Both counties have over 1.2 registered voters and the two will give Baba close to 0.7M votes.Taveta,Kwake,Lamu & Tana river will give Baba additional 300 K votes to make it 1M for Baba in coast.
Eastern,with Kambas 1.6 registered voters,1.1 will come out to vote Baba,add 35% of merus,embus,Tharakas which is about 400K.overall Baba gets 1.5 M of eastern votes.
NE,Baba will manage over 65% of the 0.7 registered voters whisc is about 0.4M voters,all leading aspirants are in Azimio.Tgey tend to go with the winning team.
I say the magic number is 30% for Baba in gema nation,this is about 1.5M votes(central, Meru,Tharaka,Embu,Nairobi and gema in RV).,and it's the game changer.
Game over.The gains Ruto has made in coast and western are insignificant to the overall vite basket,1% gain in western or coast is not equal to 1% gain in central gema.
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Turn out averages between 73% to 75% of all areas apart from Luo Nyanza,Kalenjin Rift,Gema nation which have high level turn out of over 80%.Whichever way,those are the most realistic projections,In western,Busia will be the tier breaker for Baba,In coast it will be Mombasa and Kilifi,in central,it will be Kiambu and in Eastern ,it will be Meru.
It's a fact Ruto has made gains in western especially Bungoma but the gains are marginally low,they can't tilt the scale,same applies to coast.Battle ground is the gema nation,that's where this thing is won or lost.If Ruto pulls over 90%,he is in,If Raila pulls above 30%,he is equally in.
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Coast turn out at best will be 60-65.
Luo Nyanza and Kalenjin RV will have more than 85 percent.
GEMA will not see why they must vote in such number - I see even 10-15 percent drop of turnout.
Turnout in Western, Luhyas and Ukambani is normally low.
So is turnout in part of RV and northern Kenya.
Ruto has made gains in Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma, Tranzoia, many luhyas in RV (nandi, uasin gishu, nakuru), Turkana, parts of Ukambani (Machakos with Muthama), Kwale and will generally perform better than Uhuru did in many areas including Kalenjin counties with tighter Ruto numbers & higher turnout - except Gusii & parts of Northern Kenya.
All those gains will cancel Raila 30% gain in GEMA.
It would have been rosy if Raila had retained his 2013/2017 figures - then added 30% of GEMA (which is about 8-9 percent).
Turn out averages between 73% to 75% of all areas apart from Luo Nyanza,Kalenjin Rift,Gema nation which have high level turn out of over 80%.Whichever way,those are the most realistic projections,In western,Busia will be the tier breaker for Baba,In coast it will be Mombasa and Kilifi,in central,it will be Kiambu and in Eastern ,it will be Meru.
It's a fact Ruto has made gains in western especially Bungoma but the gains are marginally low,they can't tilt the scale,same applies to coast.Battle ground is the gema nation,that's where this thing is won or lost.If Ruto pulls over 90%,he is in,If Raila pulls above 30%,he is equally in.
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Let's close it,I stand with 54% Raila,46% Ruto.
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Okay. We shall meet on 10th August. Moas as of now is 52-53 percent for Ruto - and 46-47 for Raila.We are almost agreed on GEMA (30%), we major disagree on Luhya and Kambas where you suppress Ruto numbers, and we disagree on turnout.
Let's close it,I stand with 54% Raila,46% Ruto.
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On luhya,am pretty much being objective,I opine that Raila is loosing votes,in 2017 Raila got 1.3M votes in western,am giving him 0.9M votes now,he is loosing 400K votes to Ruto.
In ukambani,let's see if Muthama beats wavinya for machakos seat before we even start discussing who gets what.But Kalonzo is to kambas what Raila is to Luos and Ruto to Kalenjins.
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MaDVD alone scored 0.5m in 2013 - you have NOT factored a Bukusu flip in Bungoma&Tranzoia - and elsewhere - Busia is not Kakamega or Bungoma so Raila winning there doesnt flip Luhyas. As for Ukambani - without Kalonzo as DPORK - he is nothing that serious - he now a butt of jokes.
As for RV - you need know Luhya&kalenjin turnout & turkana - will cancel out few Kikuyus who will vote Azimio - most kikuyus in RV - are voting for peace (under duress). Apart from Lee of Moi & Kibaki nephew - who feel their dynasties root - are more important - everyone else in UDA directly - so expecting Raila to increase voters in RV is crazy - he will actually reduce his voters. That 0.9M he got will probably reduces - not increase.
On luhya,am pretty much being objective,I opine that Raila is loosing votes,in 2017 Raila got 1.3M votes in western,am giving him 0.9M votes now,he is loosing 400K votes to Ruto.
In ukambani,let's see if Muthama beats wavinya for machakos seat before we even start discussing who gets what.But Kalonzo is to kambas what Raila is to Luos and Ruto to Kalenjins.
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So if Kalonzo is not made DP kambas revolt,what if Mudavd is also not made DP,will luhyas too revolt???
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We already factored luhyas revolt but for you even with opinion polls showing Ruto doing great in ukambani you still insist Azimios will score 90 percent...and yet kalonzo may not be dpork.. reality is that Ruto will do extremely well in ukambani if Dpork is not given to kalonzo..same way Raila score nearly half of luhya if madvd is not dpork.There is a science to this guesswork...not wishful thinking