Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on March 12, 2022, 03:17:34 PM
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Now that both coalition are settled; I hereby release final MOAS 2022 as everything is now pretty settled.
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I think knowing the choice of DP + Line up is where you can say everything is settled. We don't know who will deputize either coalition. That will affect things like turnout etc
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I dont see it changing anything beyond 1 percent - Ruto best will be 53 - Raila best 47.
DPORK will likely come from GEMA from both side
Ukambani for Raila
And unlikely MaDVD.
At this point changing 1 percent one way or the other is hard. I have already given these guys the votes that opinion polls dont have now but that I know they will have when campaign kicked off.
I think knowing the choice of DP + Line up is where you can say everything is settled. We don't know who will deputize either coalition. That will affect things like turnout etc
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Wachana an voodoo maths yako called MOASs; a big thing you haven’t factored in is perception and momentum. That’s quite a thing in an Election and politics in general, at this point RAO has the positive vibes (perception) and the momentum. Meantime, your boy has reached his maximum.... peaked way too soon and will only go down from here on.
RAO will get this thing with a national score of 60:40 (worst case)... take it to the bank. Mark this message.
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Wachana an voodoo maths yako called MOASs; a big thing you haven’t factored in is perception and momentum. That’s quite a thing in an Election and politics in general, at this point RAO has the positive vibes (perception) and the momentum. Meantime, your boy has reached his maximum.... peaked way too soon and will only go down from here on.
RAO will get this thing with a national score of 60:40 (worst case)... take it to the bank. Mark this message.
Okay..keep throwing figures carelessly then come crying it's rigged.Momentum depends..if kamba accept the deal...but yes Raila gained almost 10 percent today.He needs about half a million votes to go 50 50 with Ruto...We nsaw uhuru sagana three backfire...and Ruto has increased his lead in Mt kenya.Remember MOASS has predicted all the elections and referendum with surgeon knife precision
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Its Raila 54%-57%...Its Over bro
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Good try. If only you were not a radical Ruto worshipper. Just adjust for the pro-Ruto, anti-Raila bias and you are home.
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Good try. If only you were not a radical Ruto worshipper. Just adjust for the pro-Ruto, anti-Raila bias and you are home.
Do it and share..we will pin it..and we can debate or better meet the night of 9th of august...I know enough of these numbers I don't throw them careless..final moas is not gonna change much
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Its Raila 54%-57%...Its Over bro
okay but how did you come with those numbers
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Stop wasting your valuable time,this thing is gone,we are now discussing 2032
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Yes Ruto has thud numbers in Ukambani 30+% (cause almighty Muthama), Gema ati 75%... apparently Sagana 3 backfired based on 1 Murang'a poll. But Luhya did not backfire despite big rebellion-exodus to Azimio. Even in places where clans rule... like Mandera where Jubilee had 95% - Ruto magically manages big numbers despite headlines of Azimio full board. Gusii is another one.
Its Raila 54%-57%...Its Over bro
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MOAS za utapeli.
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hehehehe, pomposity has reduced. Ruto 65% is out of the window. Tulia dawa ikuingie, I'm seeing very funny percentages in cenyral, western and Ukambani
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Come up with your own..and as always let's meet on the 10th
MOAS za utapeli.
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In fact since 2013 no Raila supporter has produced a version showing of their win..it doesn't exist
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Ruto need 50 percent plus single vote to win. He has almost a million votes difference with Raila is vote turnout reduces by 10 percent - and if turnout is kept the same - the difference remain a million plus votes
The magic number Raila need to beat Ruto is to win 45 percent of Mt kenya....that is big mountain to climb...so he can beat Ruto by 100K votes :) :)
This only scenario where Raila wins by a whisker :)
hehehehe, pomposity has reduced. Ruto 65% is out of the window. Tulia dawa ikuingie, I'm seeing very funny percentages in cenyral, western and Ukambani
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Pretty much summarize this election - the repeat of the last two.
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True, hao watu hawananga discipline. They use pomp and spectacle to wow supporters but don't do followup when it matters. Elections are not just about spectacle at rallies and social media, they are also about grassroots mobilisation. I think that's how in 2017 Jubilee performed better in NASA areas like Western because Ruto left nothing to chance. This election will be fought on a polling station basis, and all those in Azimio have no one who can mount such an operation. Kazi ni kubweka kwa TV then delude themselves ati wameshinda. No wonder they all seem mortally afraid of Ruto. Just look at Kiambaa, Uhuru pulled all stops by fielding the stronger candidate and using "system" to intimidate UDAs voters. In the end, UDA won because of how they mobilised their people to vote, it would all have been too easy for a voter to stay home especially due to police and system presence.
Azimio cannot replicate that system countrywide, labda a few strongholds. Huku kwingine Ruto will wipe the floor with them.
Pretty much summarize this election - the repeat of the last two.
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Yes Ruto has managed to starve off combined Raila-Uhuru assault the last five years through hard-nosed grassroot campaigns.
Raila formulae has always been to create sort of national euphoria like NARC of 2002 - that gives the momentum for statehouse - that is why he's been desperately trying jump-start his presidential bid 5 times now - but he has NOT gained that momentum. It's been Kasarani or kibera or Jacarada - where Luo slum dwellers converge - then run for Kisumu - and then it's fizzle out - sometimes due to health reasons.
Let see if Kalonzo momentum will be sustained - maybe Uhuru & Kalonzo will finally engage fully considering Raila health & age doesn't allow him for gruelling duel with Ruto - and of course almost every rally - Raila and his crew will be subtracting votes with careless speeches. I expect their new exuberance to lead them to make many fau-pauxes as they are now convinced they have it wrapped.
Ruto approach is to comb villages - to do the hardwork - to go places no one has gone to for presidential campaigns - and that submarine sawa him improve western in 2017 from 4 percent (actually zero if you factor it's kalenjin/kikuyu diaspora) to nearly 30 percent in 2017 - same with Gusii and Coast - gaining Jubilee almost 5 percent of the national vote-> more than 2013.
Ultimately the political formation remain as of 2013 & 2017 - and it's really the question of whether Raila new gains can overturn Ruto new gains in such a manner to bridge the 10 percent gap of 2017 (ignore the rigging claims - nobody has impugned the figures - just the processes).
True, hao watu hawananga discipline. They use pomp and spectacle to wow supporters but don't do followup when it matters. Elections are not just about spectacle at rallies and social media, they are also about grassroots mobilisation. I think that's how in 2017 Jubilee performed better in NASA areas like Western because Ruto left nothing to chance. This election will be fought on a polling station basis, and all those in Azimio have no one who can mount such an operation. Kazi ni kubweka kwa TV then delude themselves ati wameshinda. No wonder they all seem mortally afraid of Ruto. Just look at Kiambaa, Uhuru pulled all stops by fielding the stronger candidate and using "system" to intimidate UDAs voters. In the end, UDA won because of how they mobilised their people to vote, it would all have been too easy for a voter to stay home especially due to police and system presence.
Azimio cannot replicate that system countrywide, labda a few strongholds. Huku kwingine Ruto will wipe the floor with them.
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It's a comedy of errors.
Once it became clear Kalonzo is not running alone as hoped & prayed... Ruto in Gema was promptly buffed to 75% to maintain the narrative. Note Ruto is still at 30+ in Ukambani :-\ - literally Azimio full-house. Now imagine if in the next few days half Wiper MPs defected to UDA as happened in Luhya after earthquake.. Ruto would promptly be declared 65% winner.
Finally in case the numbers don't add up the warriors are ready.
hehehehe, pomposity has reduced. Ruto 65% is out of the window. Tulia dawa ikuingie, I'm seeing very funny percentages in cenyral, western and Ukambani
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Sound like you said similar things in 2013 and 2017 - only to end up crying.
I dont carelessly make numbers.
I meticously watch all sort of indicators including opinion polls and of course my 30yr experience reading kenya politics
I had estimated Uhuru would dent the figures with Sagana and all that - now evidence suggest - nope.
Uhuru is likely to produce the opposite effect - everytime he speak against Ruto in mt kenya - he seem to lose support.
Empirical data from opinion polls - are showing Ruto numbers going up post sagana
If you check my numbers are normally very "harsh" on Ruto.
In fact I have always understimated Jubilee - in 2013/2017 - numbers - because I am acutely aware of my "confirmation bias"
So generally take these numbers as worse case scenario for Ruto....Ruto likely to do 1-2 percent better nationally.
In GEMA for example in Meru - Ruto is at 55 percent - that is a lot of faith I am giving AZIMIO :)
In Kiambu (big one) - Ruto is at 65 percent.
Remember those two are big movers in GEMA - combined 2 million votes or nearly half of GEMA.
Even if I reduce the others by 10 percent - it wont result into much change.
Nyeri to tharaka to laikipis - average county pop is about 300-400K each - with turnout expected to be low - 10% in a county is very tiny - 30,000 votes.
I challenge you to get an excel - and do your maths - and share with me a realistic path of Raila presidency - doesnt exist.
In short - every number I have carefully considered enough to call this election - FINAL MOAS
And if I am wrong - it's very very minor - and is likely an overcompensation for my own confirmation bias.
It's a comedy of errors.
Once it became clear Kalonzo is not running alone as hoped & prayed... Ruto in Gema was promptly buffed to 75% to maintain the narrative. Note Ruto is still at 30+ in Ukambani :-\ - literally Azimio full-house. Now imagine if in the next few days half Wiper MPs defected to UDA as happened in Luhya after earthquake.. Ruto would promptly be declared 65% winner.
Finally in case the numbers don't add up the warriors are ready.
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Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.
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I dont carelessly make numbers.
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A few minutes later the low guy posts as below ....
Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.
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Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.
Share you maths
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comimg from a Dimwit.
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I dont carelessly make numbers.
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A few minutes later the low guy posts as below ....
Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.
:16:
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Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.
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Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.
No third force to speak of. With OKA dead, MaDVD and Kaloi in the two camps, there's nothing like round two. This thing ends on August 9th, regardless of who is declared victor. Barring, of course, another Magara 2.0 nullification.
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Munya become DP; Raila get more Merus; Raila lose Kamba votes!
It that simple.
2022 imeisha.
Unless BBI comeback - then we are talking new dynamics.
Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.
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Munya become DP; Raila get more Merus; Raila lose Kamba votes!
It that simple.
2022 imeisha.
Unless BBI comeback - then we are talking new dynamics.
Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.
Thus begs the question how many votes does kalonzo control in ukambani vs Ngilu,Kiivutha and Mutua if we can know this then am sure we can call it here and then
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BBI issue:
Now, I never bothered to watch the SCOK proceedings, but someone who did told me the line of questioning by the judges strongly indicated they would knock down a bunch of the arguments that carried the day in the lower courts.
There's no way to be sure, but my guess is IF they keep BBI knocked out, it will be on the basis of the technical/Procedural questions of some step or other not have been followed.
But on the substantive arguments, I really don't expect them to uphold these two things that carried the day in the lower courts:
a) The idea that the political class, including the president, are somehow barred by the constitution from participation in the popular initiative
b) That the constitution cannot be wholly amended (Basic structure doctrine).
PS: It was Ahmednassir who started this discussion about BBI like two/three weeks ago when he claimed that he had info that Uhuru already knew the court's decision and that positions were already being negotiated on the basis of said decision. I'm surprised nipate missed it.
Of course, this fella may have just been talking from nothing, just to cause a stir on Twitter and nothing more. Who knows? If it was true, Ruto camp would prolly already be talking about it, so it's likely Ahmednassir was just lollygagging on Twitter.
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Kambas are twice Merus.
Therefore even weaken Kalonzo is better than Munya.
Kalonzo can easily deliver 50 percent of Kambas - which equal to 100 percent of Merus.
Munya has mountain to climb selling Raila even in Meru - even as DPORK.
Unless we get BBI - we are
Thus begs the question how many votes does kalonzo control in ukambani vs Ngilu,Kiivutha and Mutua if we can know this then am sure we can call it here and then
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It a complex case
Initially the lower courts dealt with 17-20 issues.
It appears some were conceded - and only 7 issues were appealed at supreme court.
Therefore BBI recovery for me is out of question - because stuff like publishing in Kiswahili and English cannot be cured.
Or IEBC flouting their own rules & regulation - and using a weekend to validate signatures.
Or abuse of office by using gov funds to bulldoze BBI.
Now when it come to supreme court - they will most likely deal with 7 legal/weight issues - and leave the mundane stuff to be fixed by lower courts.
The weight issues include of course
1) Basic structure
2) What is popular initiative
.....bla de bla
So yes I think Ahmednassir has misgiving about supreme court.
But it would take totally compromised SCORK to overtun the work of 13 superior court judges.
BBI issue:
Now, I never bothered to watch the SCOK proceedings, but someone who did told me the line of questioning by the judges strongly indicated they would knock down a bunch of the arguments that carried the day in the lower courts.
There's no way to be sure, but my guess is IF they keep BBI knocked out, it will be on the basis of the technical/Procedural questions of some step or other not have been followed.
But on the substantive arguments, I really don't expect them to uphold these two things that carried the day in the lower courts:
a) The idea that the political class, including the president, are somehow barred by the constitution from participation in the popular initiative
b) That the constitution cannot be wholly amended.
PS: It was Ahmednassir who started this discussion about BBI like two/three weeks ago when he claimed that he had info that Uhuru already knew the court's decision and that positions were already being negotiated on the basis of said decision. I'm surprised nipate missed it.
Of course, this fella may have just been talking from nothing, just to cause a stir on Twitter and nothing more. Who knows? If it was true, Ruto camp would prolly already be talking about it, so it's likely Ahmednassir was just lollygagging on Twitter.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNwWfLbWUAMZNW_?format=jpg&name=large)
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Kambas are twice Merus.
Therefore even weaken Kalonzo is better than Munya.
Kalonzo can easily deliver 50 percent of Kambas - which equal to 100 percent of Merus.
Munya has mountain to climb selling Raila even in Meru - even as DPORK.
Unless we get BBI - we are
Thus begs the question how many votes does kalonzo control in ukambani vs Ngilu,Kiivutha and Mutua if we can know this then am sure we can call it here and then
True
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Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.
No third force to speak of. With OKA dead, MaDVD and Kaloi in the two camps, there's nothing like round two. This thing ends on August 9th, regardless of who is declared victor. Barring, of course, another Magara 2.0 nullification.
The rigging margin is the 3rd force,and thats why Ruto has to nick it first round which is very possible compared with baba.
All this hullabaloo of Azimio bringing everyone onboard is a disguise for rigging
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Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.
No third force to speak of. With OKA dead, MaDVD and Kaloi in the two camps, there's nothing like round two. This thing ends on August 9th, regardless of who is declared victor. Barring, of course, another Magara 2.0 nullification.
The rigging margin is the 3rd force,and thats why Ruto has to nick it first round which is very possible compared with baba.
All this hullabaloo of Azimio bringing everyone onboard is a disguise for rigging
Ok. But my point is, rigging or no rigging, there will be no second round because it's mathematically impossible.
If Raila wins clean or Uhuru rigs him in, then he'll have 50% plus 1 first round. If Ruto wins with unriggable margin or any margin, he'll have 50% plus 1.
Without a serious third party spoiler, it just doesn't make sense to imagine round two.
The only way round two becomes possible is if:
1) Either Kaloi/MaDVD/both pull out of either coalition and play(s) spoiler. Then Raila/Ruto may win with like 49% and be forced to go to round two.
2) There's a presidential election petition and SCOK nullifies round one.
Barring these two scenarios, there's nothing like round two.
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Yup, no round 2. Everyone has already picked sides except maybe Justin Muturi.
Ok. But my point is, rigging or no rigging, there will be no second round because it's mathematically impossible.
If Raila wins clean or Uhuru rigs him in, then he'll have 50% plus 1 first round. If Ruto wins with unriggable margin or any margin, he'll have 50% plus 1.
Without a serious third party spoiler, it just doesn't make sense to imagine round two.
The only way round two becomes possible is if:
1) Either Kaloi/MaDVD/both pull out of either coalition and play(s) spoiler. Then Raila/Ruto may win with like 49% and be forced to go to round two.
2) There's a presidential election petition and SCOK nullifies round one.
Barring these two scenarios, there's nothing like round two.
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Baba will be beaten like a burukenge and I think he knows this,I was shocked today when I came across one of his most ardent supporters today was cursing him for being used by gatheca,I dare say even 10% of luos will vote for Ruto.
Ruto is set for pork regardless of whom he picks as running mate,Ruto is appearing straight forward and honest compared to his main competitor gatheca,am loving how this is shaping to be Uhuru vs Ruto, people saying gatheca is extending his rule. Kenyatta's lazima wavalie kinyasa come 10th August 22.
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Last hurdle is running mate nominee.
Otherwise everything so far aligning for Ruto.
He took a calculated gamble in free and fair nomination and it paid off. Absolutely brilliant stuff.
Proved his bottom up push was serious and highlighted the other side attempts to upstage kenyan public and decide stuff.
I thought Uhuru would comeback when we have nomination fallout like 2017 (Kabogo & team of independents) but nope.
Uhuru has to wait for re-entry when they pick DPORK - and he takes them to GEMA.
Meanwhile it will be teeth gnashing in ukambani.
Raila has to deal wit competing interest of GEMA and Kamba nation - that biggest banana slip - that could see him drop from 47 (Now 45 percent in my view) percent back to 38 percent as Kamba likely to pull out or protest it.
Kwa Luhyas - he is taking a lot of water now - Tim is almost last straw that broke the camel back. He might be able to string propaganda when maDVD is not picked - but I believe maDVD team have made it clear to Luhyas - that Ruto never promised it.
End of day - Ruto reliability wins - because leaders and voters do not trust KINYONGA like Kalonzo or Raila or Uhuru.
People want to sleep knowing same person will turn up every day.
Kalonzo and Raila - too unpredictable - add Martha - THAT IS :D :D :D :D - I am reserving my laughter until they pick Martha.
Baba will be beaten like a burukenge and I think he knows this,I was shocked today when I came across one of his most ardent supporters today was cursing him for being used by gathe
ca,I dare say even 10% of luos will vote for Ruto.
Ruto is set for pork regardless of whom he picks as running mate,Ruto is appearing straight forward and honest compared to his main competitor gatheca,am loving how this is shaping to be Uhuru vs Ruto, people saying gatheca is extending his rule. Kenyatta's lazima wavalie kinyasa come 10th August 22.