Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on February 24, 2022, 08:16:28 PM
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I really struggled with this one - I had to make Raila beat Ruto in all counties except the 14 in Rift Valley.
I gave him Kalonzo 2017 figures almost for NASA.
I gave him win in all the western counties :)
I gave Raila win in all GEMA counties - save for Nakuru & Laikipia
After a lot of hard work - I finally got Raila winning by a whisker 50 percent !
Percentage Total votes
William Ruto 49 7,651,996
Raila Odinga 50 7,893,990
Others 1 157,030
Turn out 75
GAP 241,994
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This is was not easy
County Code County Name Areas
1 MOMBASA Raila
2 KWALE Raila
3 KILIFI Raila
4 TANA RIVER Raila
5 LAMU Raila
6 TAITA TAVETA Raila
7 GARISSA Raila
8 WAJIR Raila
9 MANDERA Raila
10 MARSABIT Raila
11 ISIOLO Raila
12 MERU Raila
13 THARAKA NITHI Raila
14 EMBU Raila
15 KITUI Raila
16 MACHAKOS Raila
17 MAKUENI Raila
18 NYANDARUA Raila
19 NYERI Raila
20 KIRINYAGA Raila
21 MURANGA Raila
22 KIAMBU Raila
23 TURKANA Ruto
24 WEST POKOT Ruto
25 SAMBURU Ruto
26 TRANS NZOIA Ruto
27 UASIN GISHU Ruto
28 ELGEYO/MARAKWET Ruto
29 NANDI Ruto
30 BARINGO Ruto
31 LAIKIPIA Ruto
32 NAKURU Ruto
33 NAROK Ruto
34 KAJIADO Ruto
35 KERICHO Ruto
36 BOMET Ruto
37 KAKAMEGA Raila
38 VIHIGA Raila
39 BUNGOMA Raila
40 BUSIA Raila
41 SIAYA Raila
42 KISUMU Raila
43 HOMA BAY Raila
44 MIGORI Raila
45 KISII Raila
46 NYAMIRA Raila
47 NAIROBI CITY Raila
Percentage
William Ruto 49
Raila Odinga 50
Others 1
Turn out 75
GAP
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Raila has to win everywhere - all these counties- to beat Ruto by 1 percent.
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Ruto just need to nail homeground of RV -
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Conclusion; Raila win is POSSIBLE JUST IMPROBABLE IMPLAUSIBLE :) :)
He has perform miracles literally - beat Ruto in GEMA, Win Kalonzo & win in Western against maDVD+Ruto+Weta, then carry COAST+NEP
All Ruto need to do is win Rift Valley with high turnout - and get what Jubilee got in 2017 in other areas :) outside GEMA - and he still beat JAKOM :) :)
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Realistically now - if he gets Kalonzo - he will end up at 2017 - 45% against 55% - with a gap of 1.5Million votes.
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Let me make it easy for you,you are going the long way for nothing.Uhuru got 8.2 million votes in 2017.out of this,direct GEMA votes were about 5.5 million.Assume Uhuru sways 40% of this GEMA vote on his side,(2.2 million).
Raila got 6.8 million,Assume Mudavadi and Weta go with 0.8million,leaving Raila with 6 million(assuming Kalonzo stays put).Add the 2.2m uhuru GEMA votes to Railas 6 M votes and you get 8.2M votes.
Come over to Ruto,he remains with 6 million votes(after uhurus 2.2M GEMA votes).Add him the 0.8M MDVD and Weta western votes and he maximizes at 6.8M votes.
There is no way Ruto can beat Raila,wachana na MOA,s this is the real one.
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Lots of false assumption.
Like assuming that of 8.2M votes GEMA total votes were 5.5M.
5.5m was about the total registered gema votes - roughly 28 percent - higher than their population quota.
Those that actually turned and voted were about 4.6m - about half of Uhuru votes - roughly 28 percent.
Now for Uhuru to take 2.2m - you're saying Uhuru will take half of GEMA votes.
That is improbable but even if we give it to Jakom - and give him to Kalonzo he still wont win.
The reason is obvious Luhya votes is bigger than Kambas votes.
If you assume that Raila will lose half of what he got to maDVD+Weta - then you're talking more than a million votes - if you assume Luhya total votes are 2million plus - but their turnout normally aint good.
So again you see keep Kalonzo,
Lose MaDVD+Weta
Gain in Mt Kenya - a little from lameduck who has been abandoned.
Zero sum game - you're back to 45 percent.
Unless of course you win half of GEMA - 2.2m votes you're talking about.
Then it becomes very close call.
Though Kalenjin have edge of nearly 0.4m votes over Luos.
The rest is essentially win here; lose here;
So Raila path to victory is to
1) Get Kalonzon onboard - and pray Kambas dont revolt due to fatigue. That is the bare minimum before we talk
2) Pray for half of GEMA votes. All evidence suggest that is mountain to climb....as more and more leaders are leaving uhuru jubilee.
3) Pray that western kenya doesnt become a disaster....given maDVD+Weta are getting their groove back.
Let me make it easy for you,you are going the long way for nothing.Uhuru got 8.2 million votes in 2017.out of this,direct GEMA votes were about 5.5 million.Assume Uhuru sways 40% of this GEMA vote on his side,(2.2 million).
Raila got 6.8 million,Assume Mudavadi and Weta go with 0.8million,leaving Raila with 6 million(assuming Kalonzo stays put).Add the 2.2m uhuru GEMA votes to Railas 6 M votes and you get 8.2M votes.
Come over to Ruto,he remains with 6 million votes(after uhurus 2.2M GEMA votes).Add him the 0.8M MDVD and Weta western votes and he maximizes at 6.8M votes.
There is no way Ruto can beat Raila,wachana na MOA,s this is the real one.
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Raila has no path to presidency this time around no matter how you massage the numbers or do acrobats. Kama haiko, haiko.
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Let him first sign Kamba nation.
Raila has no path to presidency this time around no matter how you massage the numbers or do acrobats. Kama haiko, haiko.
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Bomori, Kaibar biik kabisa! Iman ng'alechu?
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Momi komosin!
Bomori, Kaibar biik kabisa! Iman ng'alechu?
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Kenyan election not unless so.ething happens to Ruto .Its a done deal . Ruto will be the President .
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Raila has no path to presidency this time around no matter how you massage the numbers or do acrobats. Kama haiko, haiko.
You are very correct, sir!
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What makes leaders in various fields effective, is being able to explain complex issues in simple terms. And you just did @Pajero. You are a genius! Now let them not take serious what you just posted, at their own peril.
Let me make it easy for you,you are going the long way for nothing.Uhuru got 8.2 million votes in 2017.out of this,direct GEMA votes were about 5.5 million.Assume Uhuru sways 40% of this GEMA vote on his side,(2.2 million).
Raila got 6.8 million,Assume Mudavadi and Weta go with 0.8million,leaving Raila with 6 million(assuming Kalonzo stays put).Add the 2.2m uhuru GEMA votes to Railas 6 M votes and you get 8.2M votes.
Come over to Ruto,he remains with 6 million votes(after uhurus 2.2M GEMA votes).Add him the 0.8M MDVD and Weta western votes and he maximizes at 6.8M votes.
There is no way Ruto can beat Raila,wachana na MOA,s this is the real one.
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Lame as always. There is no space limit for you to explain how Raila will win 2022. It simply doesnt exist.
What makes leaders in various fields effective, is being able to explain complex issues in simple terms. And you just did @Pajero. You are a genius! Now let them not take serious what you just posted, at their own peril.