Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on February 18, 2022, 11:47:50 AM
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AFDB estimate that Africa infrastructure deficit at 108B dollars reducing productivity by 40%!
Now Kenya
The road sector is really shameful - of 160,00kms classified roads only 25,000kms is paved - rest is vumbistan/matopeni
Kerra have about 130,000kms of rural roads that are unpaved. Using Low seal volume road (80M a kilometre)- you need about 10B dollars all major rural arteries - leaving county roads.
Kura has 11,000kms- assuming higher price of 100M per kilometere - you need 1B dollars to fix all major urban roads - leaving county roads.
KENHA has 8,000kms-assuming these are built to express way standards - you need about 500m per kilometer - you need 40B dollars. Maybe 80B dollars if we go 1billion a kilometer. Remove KENHA and make them toll-based IPPS roads.
County roads are almost 80,000kms (Kenya total road network now 250K kms) - both urban and rural -assume you pay even cheaper rate of 60m per kilometer - will need another 3B dollars to fix roads from main rural arteries to everyone driveway.
So total roughly you need 10Bdollars for KERRA -1B dollars for KURA - and 3B dollar for counties-total 18B- to fix Kenya road.
In electricity sector
We are doing pretty well here - with about 50-70 percent of household covered with main electricity.
It probably requires about 1B dollars to finish the remaining household. WB/AFDB used 45B kshs or half a billion dollars to connect almost 4 million. We have another 4-6 million household to go.
Water & Sanitation
This is very shameful. Only 1/4 of kenyans have piped water - mostly in urban and semi-urban areas.
And that water is not adequate.
Many kenya dont have access to piped water.
People talk of women empowerment and never talk about water & firewood fetching.
How much investment do you need to remove this shame?
Assume you have 12 million household in Kenya - with 10 Million needing piped water.
One project like proposed Bosto dam in Bomet that would supply 80,000 household with water cost 20B kshs
That is dam plus the supply lines to each household.
To extrapolate to 10 million household - you require 125 such dams and supply to cover entire country.
125 dams times 20Bshs - requires 25B dollars or 2.5 trillion Kshs.
Maybe throw in another 5B dollars to ensure sewage system in urban areas
Total investment needed is 30B dollars.
Focus on those three Areas
1) Water & Sanitation for all
2) Electricity for all
3) Paved roads everywhere
Total investment needed is 30B+14+1= roughly 45B dollars.
Rather than using the budget to finance and budget for this.
Take this off the budget and start a fund -
Gov should raise 10B dollars - by selling shares in Safaricom/KPA/Kenya Pipeline/KCB/all profitable SOES.
Borrow the 35B dollars - from WB/AFDB/Eurobond/ plus local NSSF/Life Insurance/Pension Funds- Long Maturity Low Interest loans - 30-50yrs long.
Give Chinese contractors the money - and give them 2-3yrs to complete this small job
Kenya will payback about 3 billion dollars every year - and interest of maybe 300M dollars.
The economy will take off - gov will become insanely popular - and kenya will start to become developed.
The secondary infrastructure of ports/railways/airports - we can deal them on need basis.
But it very shameful to travel on dirt road, drink dirt waters, diarhoea almost daily coz of sewage and lack electricity in 21st century.
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Ghana has Infrastructure Investment Fund - that target private investment. This would work for KENHA/Ports/ Secondary investment which can be done as public private investment.
https://giif.gov.gh/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GIIF-Investor-Presentation-Aug-2020-Final-compressed.pdf
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Kenya Pension fund willing to fund basic infrastructure - like these 24 pension scheme funding the road in NEP.
The Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA) rules allow pension funds to directly invest up to 10 percent of their portfolio in infrastructure debt instruments.
“It gives them a chance to diversify their investments, hedge against inflation … and also contribute to the development of our country by investing in projects,” RBA chief executive Nzomo Mutuku said.
Pension schemes have the bulk of their assets in government paper and listed equities, with significant holdings in property and fixed deposits as well.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/24-pension-schemes-raise-sh2bn-to-finance-mandera-wajir-road-3720826
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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that a whooping $47 trillion dollars is invested by the world’s pension funds globally which is approximately half of all the money invested in the global financial system.