35 states, led by EU, have called for an urgent UNSC session on 17 Dec to discuss situation in Ethiopia.
— Rashid Abdi (@RAbdiAnalyst) December 16, 2021
African bloc at a loss on how to proceed. AU argues a special session unnecessary since Obasanjo is making progress.
Reality Obasanjo mission dead. He cannot get meetings.
Will China and Russia veto a UNSC resolution?
Russia and China might not care about Baby Abiy enough35 states, led by EU, have called for an urgent UNSC session on 17 Dec to discuss situation in Ethiopia.
— Rashid Abdi (@RAbdiAnalyst) December 16, 2021
African bloc at a loss on how to proceed. AU argues a special session unnecessary since Obasanjo is making progress.
Reality Obasanjo mission dead. He cannot get meetings.
I am not sure what the obsession is with the West and Abiy(or Ethiopia for that matter). I am generally familiar with the Tigray question in Ethiopia, but the geopolitics of this escape me. Also Rashid Abdiy, like a whole bunch of Somalis are incorrigible irredentists. So their hot takes are best not taken seriously beyond that. They seem to derive a peculiar joy in seeing other countries around Somalia fail.
A Peace Prize that paved the way for war
Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with his country’s enemy, Eritrea, ending two decades of conflict between the countries.
In the years since then, Ahmed has used his alliance with Isaias Afwerki, the authoritarian leader of Eritrea, to secretly plot a course for war against their mutual foes in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, according to officials.
Abiy insists that war was foisted upon him. But new evidence shows he was planning a military campaign for months before the first shot was fired. Analysts say that Abiy’s journey from peacemaker to battlefield commander is a cautionary tale of how the West, desperate to find a new hero in Africa, got this leader spectacularly wrong.
Analysis: “The West needs to make up for its mistakes in Ethiopia,” said Alex Rondos, formerly the E.U.’s top diplomat in the Horn of Africa. “It misjudged Abiy. It empowered Isaias. Now the issue is whether a country of 110 million people can be prevented from unraveling.”
NYT writes:QuoteA Peace Prize that paved the way for war
Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with his country’s enemy, Eritrea, ending two decades of conflict between the countries.
In the years since then, Ahmed has used his alliance with Isaias Afwerki, the authoritarian leader of Eritrea, to secretly plot a course for war against their mutual foes in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, according to officials.
Abiy insists that war was foisted upon him. But new evidence shows he was planning a military campaign for months before the first shot was fired. Analysts say that Abiy’s journey from peacemaker to battlefield commander is a cautionary tale of how the West, desperate to find a new hero in Africa, got this leader spectacularly wrong.
Analysis: “The West needs to make up for its mistakes in Ethiopia,” said Alex Rondos, formerly the E.U.’s top diplomat in the Horn of Africa. “It misjudged Abiy. It empowered Isaias. Now the issue is whether a country of 110 million people can be prevented from unraveling.”
100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.
There has to be a winner and soon.
Only thousands can make it to Europe. The millions will be in the E. African region. This war has to be ended ASAP. It is meaningless and makes no sense at all.
Remember also Ethiopia owes China a lot of money. Ethiopia has the second largest debt to China in Africa. Only Angola owes China more money. Also many Chinese companies now have manufacturing facilities in Ethiopia.100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.
There has to be a winner and soon.
They need to negotiate for United States of Ethiopia - with Tigrays and 8 regions - as independent as Zanzibar and Tanzania.
I dont see another solution. These people dont like each other. Each one has their flag.
South Africa will see a lot of influx.
And Kenya definitely.
It may be a little tough to make to Europe and the US.
Only solution - negotiate for united republic of ethiopia - there is secession clause already - what is needed is referendum.
But they are tenacious and will make their way their.Only thousands can make it to Europe. The millions will be in the E. African region. This war has to be ended ASAP. It is meaningless and makes no sense at all.
Remember also Ethiopia owes China a lot of money. Ethiopia has the second largest debt to China in Africa. Only Angola owes China more money. Also many Chinese companies now have manufacturing facilities in Ethiopia.100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.
There has to be a winner and soon.
I hope that whatever solution is agreed upon, there is still strong enough power in Addis Ababa to prevent secession. In other words, the various ethnic groups have adequate rights but not the ability to break away from Ethiopia.
Of what use is a united country if it leads to genocide and genocidal thoughts. African with its 2000 tribes and 54 countries will see a lot of secession. There is a reason why we had those 2,000 nations or tribes previously.
Only way forward is for more and more autonomy - and we just keep unity for sports/flags/ - and become friendly neigberhours - for trade and commerce.I hope that whatever solution is agreed upon, there is still strong enough power in Addis Ababa to prevent secession. In other words, the various ethnic groups have adequate rights but not the ability to break away from Ethiopia.