Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely
The only place Raila might enjoy a resurgence is Gusii due to Matiangi factor. Mt Kenya might get slight chance bump but Uhuru game plan Bado.Uhuru has jakom where he wants... totally dependant on him
Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely
Raila lost to Mwai Kibaki in 2007 in Kisii. He evened out with Uhuru in 2017 . A substantial number of voters just like Kuria dont like the Dominance in Nyanza. Depending on how Ruto plays his cards he will win in noth Kisii and Nyamira Counties.
I think he still strong in Kilifi and Mombasa - at least he has slightly edge on Ruto there. Ruto is stronger in Kwale and Taita Taveta. The Tana river and Lamu will as always be 50-50. So looking at coast breaking 50-50.
Coast was ODM stronghold outside Luo Nyanza - of the 60 elected seats - 35 were Luos - and 20 almost from Coast - and 10 mps from elsewhere (that is how badly ODM was).
Now we are looking at ODM reducing to about 45 elected Mps.
Post 2022 - It will be like 2013 - there is no negotiation. Ruto will not entertain Jakom or anybody else because he can win and maintain political support.
Moi needed NDP in 1997 - he had razor thin majority in parliament.
Kibaki needed Raila in 2002 to win elections.
Kibaki could not possibly govern in 2007 with ODM controlling parliament.
Uhuru needed Raila in 2017 to slice Ruto and eat alone.
Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely
NKURA
— -Dennis Itumbi, CBS (@OleItumbi) December 16, 2021
Simon Kiambi (UDA) - 231
SAMSON Kinyua (Jubilee) - 46
Milton Mwenda (CCK) - 28#KIAGUDECIDES
MAHOO Ward
— -Dennis Itumbi, CBS (@OleItumbi) December 16, 2021
Taita Taveta
13/14 Polling Stations
UDA 1399
Jubilee 1375#TAITADECIDES
Ruto will not do handshake with jaCon. At best he will eviscerate him, at worse, he will make sure he is remains irrelevant!
Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely
Why the silence on Jubilee winning Taita Taveta?Jubilee and UDA are cousins. In the absence of Jubilee, UDA sweeps. In ODM vs Jubilee bout, UDA folks pulls a lever for Jubilee if no UDA candidate and vice versa. In short Jubilee voters would rather go UDA than ODM.