Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on October 18, 2021, 08:33:20 PM
-
Former Deputy Speaker Farah Maalim gives a stern warning.
He repeat exactly what I said here - that any monkey business - in 2022 will spark a huge civil war in kenya. I was drinking with my uncle - he is a senior cop - I joked that maybe they will rig Ruto votes - he told me they dare not.
If small bands of kalenjin raiders are difficult to deal - just imagine a kalenjin wide revolt/war cry - and not proborno like 2007 for Raila - but for their own destiny in kenya - it will be chaos - that will be hard to stop.After a week or two - armed forces and police - will definitely split - and kenya will be deleted - maybe 3 or 5 countries - Yugoslavia style - will emerge. There will be a Coast. A Somali breakway region. Kalenjin-kamatusa nation. Mt kenya Nation. Gusii-Western-Luo may merge if Museveni doesnt claim it. About six countries will emerge.
https://www.facebook.com/barno.shadrack/videos/724154908981950/
I got into trouble some shallow minded folks but this Somali repeat exactly what I said - try beat Ruto in the most free and fair manner possible - otherwise tafuta kenya ingine coz raundi hii may not be luckly like 2007.
Complusory video for Matiangi and other shallow minded folks.
-
IN 1990s someone mismanaged Yugoslavia - which like kenya was unhappy tribal nations - held together by very thin strands - it's now all these countries
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/SocialistYugoslavia_en.svg/800px-SocialistYugoslavia_en.svg.png)
The other scenario would be if all pastoralists back Kalenjin - it will defeat kenya in a month or two - and Ruto will be imposed for Rwanda or Uganda military dictatorship.
-
Stealing votes from your opponents stronghold is asinine. kalenjine votes are safe. This elections will be won with Mt. Kenya votes. Thats where you need to keep your eyes.
Former Deputy Speaker Farah Maalim gives a stern warning.
He repeat exactly what I said here - that any monkey business - in 2022 will spark a huge civil war in kenya. I was drinking with my uncle - he is a senior cop - I joked that maybe they will rig Ruto votes - he told me they dare not.
If small bands of kalenjin raiders are difficult to deal - just imagine a kalenjin wide revolt/war cry - and not proborno like 2007 for Raila - but for their own destiny in kenya - it will be chaos - that will be hard to stop.After a week or two - armed forces and police - will definitely split - and kenya will be deleted - maybe 3 or 5 countries - Yugoslavia style - will emerge. There will be a Coast. A Somali breakway region. Kalenjin-kamatusa nation. Mt kenya Nation. Gusii-Western-Luo may merge if Museveni doesnt claim it. About six countries will emerge.
https://www.facebook.com/barno.shadrack/videos/724154908981950/
I got into trouble some shallow minded folks but this Somali repeat exactly what I said - try beat Ruto in the most free and fair manner possible - otherwise tafuta kenya ingine coz raundi hii may not be luckly like 2007.
Complusory video for Matiangi and other shallow minded folks.
-
Any brazen rigging (this wide term) - that judiciary will not solve - might be solved in civil war.
But looking at the figures...I think kenya will escape that worse case scenario.
Raila need to bring back NASA - then it will be won in Mt kenya. Right now if Kalonzo say Ruto tosha - it almost certainly over - even Weta giving Ruto a bump in Tranzoia and Bungoma is enough to provide rigging margins.
Raila need to retain the 3 stones - of Luo-Luhya-Kamba - to reach 35 percent - Deep State can start cooking from that pot. Then worry about 15 percent from GEMA+rest of the country outside Kalenjin.
The other options is get 100% of GEMA - that means to completely undo all Ruto gains - that would take gigantic mistake - so you can get 35 percent to start from.
Otherwise even if we give Raila 60 percent of GEMA - he still barely makes it to 43 percent - with Ruto at 46 percent - just a million votes shy of POTUS.
This 50-50 scenario - Ruto still has a million votes - and just need 4 percent from OKA.
WSR - October 2021 -46% 6,854,572
Raila- October 2021 -39% 5,887,188
OKA/Others 2021 -16% 2,372,346
Even if we go bonkers - and give Raila 60 percent of GEMA - and Ruto 40 percent
Ruto still beat him - if he gets a Kalonzo.
6,535,430 6,206,329 2,372,346
43% 41% 16%
WSR Raila OKA/Others 2021
In short GET NASA/OKA first - and we can start talking - of nailing biting finish in GEMA.
Stealing votes from your opponents stronghold is asinine. kalenjine votes are safe. This elections will be won with Mt. Kenya votes. Thats where you need to keep your eyes.
-
Am sorry pundit but rigging is main on agenda of the mt.kenya mafia and deep state. This is where Ruto needs run them hard. Starting July Ruto needs drive the country to breaking point,thats only way he can ensure rigging doesn't occur.
-
Big question, is Mt Kenya ready to die for Ruto?
Otherwise apart form RV, there will be no violence unless Ruto plunge the country into chaos like in RSA after the Jacob Zuma arrest. Mind you as a big "investor" in the country he will be one of the biggest loosers.
Any brazen rigging (this wide term) - that judiciary will not solve - might be solved in civil war.
-
Once RV start the entire region including as far South Sudan/Congo/Uganda will be plunged into chaos. Refer to 2007. It also likely that class war will erupt in Mt kenya as they will see their elite as the main cause of the civil war and their sufferings. So expect Mois, Kenyattas and likes properties to be destroyed. I dont know how places like Coast and Northern Kenya will react.
Ultimately I see tribal clashes becoming a civil war. Civil war means Army and Police breaking up into say Pro-Ruto (hustler) and Pro-Gov.
Once that happen Kenya is history. I believe in 2007 - the police in Nakuru divided into ODM versus PNU - with both side exchanging fire - and Kibaki had to deploy KDF from Lanet barracks. This is like end game play (the last ace on gov cards).
Thankfully he also called Annan - for peace talks - because KDF cannot handle such a wide conflict - for more than two weeks - before they also split - as Kalenjin in KDF will not witnesses maiming of their people - before they start shooting their colleague.
Kibaki really struggle in 2007 - shuffling police and army based on tribes - trying to send ODM leaning ones to deep Northern Kenya - trying to protect armoury.
It get very dicey very easily in a very tribal country like kenya.
Do not bet on corrupt and cowardly police. That everyone knows.
KDF - is 50-50 - they either take power as united force or they split
Regionally Museveni has no time for Raila - and will promptly aid such a civil war.
Kalenjin will take about 24hours to render Kenya Police useless - if they erupt from all corners with arms and block all entry to RV - the police will be overwhelmed. They will take about a week to render KDF useless.
7M people with possibly 2-3 million active warriors with basic rudimentary training - cannot be arraigned against 40K police and 25K KDF. It's an impossible war.
At that point it really depend - on how quickly Kalenjin will upgrade to guns - and that can easily be arraigned by someone like Museveni - and it become full blown civil war - that kenya will take 10yrs to recover from - if it doesnt split into many countries.
Big question, is Mt Kenya ready to die for Ruto?
Otherwise apart form RV, there will be no violence unless Ruto plunge the country into chaos like in RSA after the Jacob Zuma arrest. Mind you as a big "investor" in the country he will be one of the biggest loosers.
-
Pundit unfortunately Kalenjin can't plunge entire country into civil war. Worst case scenario is the Tigray situation in Ethiopia where war is confined to a single region :-\
-
Cheat yourself. RV borders all kenya province safe for NE. If all KAMATUSA allies together - then it will become very dicey. But Kalenjin as whole will plunge Luo, Gusii, Luhyaland and of course Kikuyuland into great turmoil. Leave alone regional countries. Kalenjin erupts like a volcano my friend. Do not mistake the volcanic mountain for peace. Once it business of war - it's war - within few hours of a war cry - you will see terrible damage done. And this time Kalenjin may decide to go for secession...coz of ICC.
Kama laikipia bado inashinda deep state aka shallow state....dont bet on starting a war with Ruto who enjoys fanatical following in entire Kalenjin land....from Mt elgon to laikipia - from huko west pokot to tanzania border.
Pundit unfortunately Kalenjin can't plunge entire country into civil war. Worst case scenario is the Tigray situation in Ethiopia where war is confined to a single region :-\
-
Cheat yourself. RV borders all kenya province safe for NE. If all KAMATUSA allies together - then it will become very dicey. But Kalenjin as whole will plunge Luo, Gusii, Luhyaland and of course Kikuyuland into great turmoil. Leave alone regional countries. Kalenjin erupts like a volcano my friend. Do not mistake the volcanic mountain for peace. Once it business of war - it's war - within few hours of a war cry - you will see terrible damage done. And this time Kalenjin may decide to go for secession...coz of ICC.
Kama laikipia bado inashinda deep state aka shallow state....dont bet on starting a war with Ruto who enjoys fanatical following in entire Kalenjin land....from Mt elgon to laikipia - from huko west pokot to tanzania border.
Pundit unfortunately Kalenjin can't plunge entire country into civil war. Worst case scenario is the Tigray situation in Ethiopia where war is confined to a single region :-\
I feel sad for you. You're almost shedding tears. The main thing is prevent rigging in mt.kenya where deep state is planning. We will do what we can to stop this
-
I feel sad for naive people who will be found nabbing. I have no such illusion myself - and already have contingency plans. The great thing judiciary - has some faith - so the war will only erupt after Koome does her thing :)
Actually most kalenjin would welcome prospect of war - because they will use it to grudely sort historical land problems - Kalenjin have land grievances with almost all the main tribes (kikuyu,luos,luhyas and gusii) plus wazungu - the Maasai and coast will similarly jump on that.
You better hope no rigging is done - Kalenjin have bottled up a lot of anger - they took Uhuru betrayal of Ruto in stride - they took Uhuru blocking development in RV for flimsy reasons (3 mega dams - Itare/Kimwarer/Aror) - Uhuru evicted almost 20,000 kalenjin in Mau - they have taken the insults - now they see kikuyus may not vote for them with 90 percent like they did - my friend rigging will be the last nail that broke the camel back.
If it will be Raila - it will even be worse - because Kalenjin saw the same betrayal from Odinga - so they are under no illusion - that war will better - than accepting Raila presidency that will hound kalenjin people.
All these factors - seem to me - to point a very terrible 2022 if things are mishandled. Like senator cheruiyot it will be akin to closing all escape route and trying to beat a cat - you will wish you had left at least a window opened.
At least Mt kenya you're expressing and venting on your anger. That is great. Kalenjin are smilling while inside they are hurting. They know Uhuru is trying to provoke their anger before election so he can say look at the angry murderous kalenjin. So they have to bottle it and pretend to be very nice people who hate tribalism :) until there wont be anything to be lost anymore political (alleged rigged election okayed by judiciary) . Then you will see Kalenjin true colours.The terror they will unleash - god forbid - you will come here shouting for next 20yrs. 2007 will look like child play - what every kalenjin knows 2007 was mainly to protect luos and mostly to evict - I am afraid the next may take a mass killing perspective - as sort of rwanda type hutu final solution - because kalenjin would have concluded that impossible to make any peace deal with their enemies.
I feel sad for you. You're almost shedding tears. The main thing is prevent rigging in mt.kenya where deep state is planning. We will do what we can to stop this
-
These are empty threats, Kalenjins are basically non existent in major Kenyan urban areas of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Thika, Meru etc if this happens, it will mostly be confined in Rift valley with Kalenjins trying to fight everyone. If I was a Kalenjin, I would not let politicians and keyboard warriors incite such a suicidal war. First of all, you will not get the presidency from this war, secondly, you will make enemies all over the country and be completely isolated, you will be labeled bloodthirsty Neanderthals for even starting a war with your brothers in crime, the Kikuyus. I think the Ruto presidency and the confidence is starting to wane a little, this is only after Raila has only been campaigning for a month, by election time there will be a lot of ass sweating on this board and threats of violence. It’s true things are very dynamic right now, the Okoa crew will eventually be holding Raila and Ruto by the nuts, they carry all the aces. Mt Kenya also have a big say in this but their stupid, selfish politicians showed their cards too early at bargaining to be deputy president, what a bunch of clowns!!! Meru is more sold on Ruto than the rest of Mt Kenya but I see some lethargy and low turnout if they do not get the DP. The money factor is there too, Raila will run the most expensive campaign ever with kwacha coming from all over the world, there will be defections and counter defections, Kenyan politicians are a greedy lot. My two sense but it’s too early to count the chickens.
-
The plan is to keep Ruto off the ballot so there's no need to steal his votes.
Whoever loses will of course whine about rigging as usual, rush to court, and there will be skirmishes here and there but nothing big.
RV worriers are clearly worried :)
-
Cheat yourself. RV borders all kenya province safe for NE. If all KAMATUSA allies together - then it will become very dicey. But Kalenjin as whole will plunge Luo, Gusii, Luhyaland and of course Kikuyuland into great turmoil. Leave alone regional countries. Kalenjin erupts like a volcano my friend. Do not mistake the volcanic mountain for peace. Once it business of war - it's war - within few hours of a war cry - you will see terrible damage done. And this time Kalenjin may decide to go for secession...coz of ICC.
Kama laikipia bado inashinda deep state aka shallow state....dont bet on starting a war with Ruto who enjoys fanatical following in entire Kalenjin land....from Mt elgon to laikipia - from huko west pokot to tanzania border.
Pundit unfortunately Kalenjin can't plunge entire country into civil war. Worst case scenario is the Tigray situation in Ethiopia where war is confined to a single region :-\
I feel sad for you. You're almost shedding tears. The main thing is prevent rigging in mt.kenya where deep state is planning. We will do what we can to stop this
He is crossing his balls
-
How do you plan to keep Ruto out of the ballot? You're more worried that RV worriers.
You see we have been throught this kind of ritual before - in 2007 - together with RVs we would warn - then folks here would dismiss - then next day when shiet goes down - then story would change - saying Ruto is Kabuga - ohoo dead man walking - ohoo kalenjin are savages. Yet we had warned them. Then they would say ohoo Mungiki will go down there and finish the warrios - we tell them impossible - but they never listen.
People need to listen and listen well. Like Farah said - you do not take war to Mogadishu or Kabul or Tigray - and claim you will emerge victorious. The same with kalenjin nation. Kalenjin are primarly a martial community. They are at home in war.
Please ask how the KDF+GSU+APS are doing in Laikipia now - Nothing. Zero arrest. Zero dead Pokot. Zero arrested Pokot. Meanwhile Pokots have sneaked in once in a while - killed and stolen cattle right at the nose of multi-agency force - now imagine entire kalenin rising in all it's many corners. Boss...the damage in a single day alone will be massive...2007 was just two fronts - mostly kikuyu/gusii - if they open war on all fronts - we are talking humanitarian crisis of maybe 2 milllion internal refugees in 24hours.
Whatever you do - mr deep state poodle - do not provoke kalenjin nation into a war - unless you do not love this country.
Last time it took international mediation to stem a civil strife. The warriors do not throw stones for a day or two - they go to war. With poison arrows - the police are useless. With a few guns - KDF are also useless. If KDF goes in big - chance of them splitting is high.
The plan is to keep Ruto off the ballot so there's no need to steal his votes.
Whoever loses will of course whine about rigging as usual, rush to court, and there will be skirmishes here and there but nothing big.
RV worriers are clearly worried :)
-
Pundit war won't solve or work. Kalenjin will be displaced your female relatives taken by force by akina kadudu and kichwa people and abused seriously.
What we need is prevent rigging. Without rigging Ruto will win clean regardless. Baba has billions but GEMA cant be bought by money during casting vote our conscience will work and votes will be cast to Ruto.
But if you touch a single innocent Kikuyu in RV count yourselves out of the equation.
-
Farah Maalim is a closet Somali irredentist. What happened to the guy? Can't even win MCA? The rest is a logistical problem of when and where to deploy teargas.
-
Kalenjin will only resort to war as the last option. You can literally poke their eyes now - and they will wave play on. Until they know now its impossible for Ruto to become PORK - they will play peace card.
Kalenjin do not go to war over flimsy reasons. You can for example raise a war cry - but people will determine - that you issues should be sort by few villagers - sometimes it entire location - divisions - rarely entire sub-tribe - then full tribe is very rare (nearly happen in Koitatel British war) - entire kalejin wars are new - this started in 1992 - and as kalenjin become more popolous - and jobless youth roam villages - I would not want it to happen.
Kalenjin once they figured out - war is the only option - then you can bet the end game would be seccession.
Pundit war won't solve or work. Kalenjin will be displaced your female relatives taken by force by akina kadudu and kichwa people and abused seriously.
What we need is prevent rigging. Without rigging Ruto will win clean regardless. Baba has billions but GEMA cant be bought by money during casting vote our conscience will work and votes will be cast to Ruto.
But if you touch a single innocent Kikuyu in RV count yourselves out of the equation.
-
Why were you buying a big TV to watch ICC?
Farah Maalim is a closet Somali irredentist. What happened to the guy? Can't even win MCA? The rest is a logistical problem of when and where to deploy teargas.
-
Cheat yourself. RV borders all kenya province safe for NE. If all KAMATUSA allies together - then it will become very dicey. But Kalenjin as whole will plunge Luo, Gusii, Luhyaland and of course Kikuyuland into great turmoil. Leave alone regional countries. Kalenjin erupts like a volcano my friend. Do not mistake the volcanic mountain for peace. Once it business of war - it's war - within few hours of a war cry - you will see terrible damage done. And this time Kalenjin may decide to go for secession...coz of ICC.
Kama laikipia bado inashinda deep state aka shallow state....dont bet on starting a war with Ruto who enjoys fanatical following in entire Kalenjin land....from Mt elgon to laikipia - from huko west pokot to tanzania border.
Pundit unfortunately Kalenjin can't plunge entire country into civil war. Worst case scenario is the Tigray situation in Ethiopia where war is confined to a single region :-\
We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.
I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.
-
Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi :) - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister. Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos. Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.
We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.
I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.
-
RV pundit with the war talk. There is no happening. What I will pick up from this thread is the below . If Uhuu trys to become a factor in the regime change elections ,certainly people might raid properties.
Getting the out will be a fait accompli. As expereinced in Likoni and Taita Taveta negotiations will have to be done for all parties to be satisfied.
Once RV start the entire region including as far South Sudan/Congo/Uganda will be plunged into chaos. Refer to 2007. It also likely that class war will erupt in Mt kenya as they will see their elite as the main cause of the civil war and their sufferings. So expect Mois, Kenyattas and likes properties to be destroyed. I dont know how places like Coast and Northern Kenya will react.
-
Unlike you I analyze things from 360. I see scenario where civil war erupts. If you cannot - maybe you should listen to Farah Maalim. If Uhuru tries monkey game with Ruto - he will discover the depth of RV waters.
RV pundit with the war talk. There is no happening. What I will pick up from this thread is the below . If Uhuu trys to become a factor in the regime change elections ,certainly people might raid properties.
Getting the out will be a fait accompli. As expereinced in Likoni and Taita Taveta negotiations will have to be done for all parties to be satisfied.
-
Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley. Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.
Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi :) - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister. Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos. Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.
We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.
I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.
-
My friend I am free to theorize. I am an intellectual.
NASA attempted this - but they lacked RV Warriors to actualize it.
So let assume Kenya politics is mismanaged - our security forces break into camps.
Then what happen?
The way I see - kenya cannot split into 44 tribal countries - it will be mostly old 7 provinces.
Remember those provinces were formed by Kenyans - after they told Mzungu where they wanted to be.
Kalenjin are majority in 7 counties (Bomet,Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Pokot, Baringo) - and occupy 10 countries where they have Mps (Bungoma, Tranzoia, Nakuru, and Narok) - 11 if you include Nairob in significant numbers.
In such a civil war - I see Maasai merging with Kalenjin for the sake of land issues - Maasai will want to kick people out of parts Nairobi, Kajiado,Narok, Nyandarua, Laikipi and Nakuru. These again are open well known historical issues.
If they succeed - the displacement of Mt kenya will be huge - I think 3 milllion people.
Kalenjin will also attempt to kick out Luos from sugar belt to Kibos in Kisumu, Gusii to Kucha river (nearly whole of Nyamira county) - and Luhyas from Tranzoia - Likiyuani in Kakamega- about 1-2million luhyas could be evicted.
I will be evicted from Nairobi and Kiambu where I own properties.
Coast Kenya sio Pwani is well known story - starting from Sultan of Zanzibar to the Mazuris.
NEP/NFD Seccesion wars - and wanting to join Somali is well known fact. Shift wars.
Obviously Luos also feel marginalized in kenya - and want out - but dont know where to start. I am sure once Raila loses - they will wish they were not part of Kenya.
These are scenarios....realistic of kenya as failed state in civil war.
You can shut me down - BUT CAN YOU SHUT KENYA BEING CLASSIFIED AS FRAGILE STATE - top 20 - because serious GROUP GRIEVANCES?
May friend Yugoslavia is our destiny if we do not manage our ethnic politics well.
This is not incitement - this is forewarning - that if Mlevi mishandle politics - Kenya could go to the dogs. We escaped by a whisker in 2007 only because Raila is a coward. Ruto is not a coward.
Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley. Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.
Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi :) - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister. Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos. Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.
We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.
I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.
-
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley. Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.
-
Kalenjin are very agreeable, hospitable, generous, humble and peaceful people until you declare war. Luos are insufferable in a daily basis - proud, loud and conceited. Let them choose Luos if they want to suffer daily. Kalenjin will only bring arrows when things are truly south. When war is declared...Kalenjin go into savage mode...will kill like it's nothing. Luos have no savage mode..just a few stones and everything is okay...if they kill one person...their consciousness will make them run mad...Kalenjin will cleanse a killer...and they go back...killing...come to be cleansed...go back killing. After war - they go back to farming - like they did nothing.
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
-
RV Pundit is a Nyayoist .They form around 15% of population in Dorminant Kalenjin Counties .They voted for Raila in 2013 and 2017.
Ruto is cut from a different cloth. Actually he amd Kirwa were amongst the first post Multi Party Kalenjins to stand up against Moi.
He knew such type of politics was not sustainable. Ruto completely destroyed ODM when it was trying to play Nyayo type of politics.
Now if we look at dissagreements Ruto has handled it well with Uhuru.He let Uhuru be.
Raila on the other hand really messed up Kibaki . Kibaki could have achieved much if it wasnt for Raila noises. Raila instead took Kenya to the absyss in 2007. In 2016 -2017 braught businesses to standtill because he never got what he wanted.
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley. Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.
-
I am political analyst or pundit - analyzing - everything - the good, the bad and the ugly. You my guy, you are one delusional fellow, who just want to hear about good things.
I try to do dispassionate job by taking myself out of the issues - and looking at it from 3rd party.
I say a lot of ugly things we dont want to hear or see - but trust me - I always try to say the truth.
It doesnt matter if I support Raila today. Or Ruto tomorrow. Or Uhuru next.
Trying to say I am GEMA hater is very funny - because I grew up supporting DP, my father was GEMAphile and I married a GEMA woman.
In our family - I have bro who is stuck with Raila - I dont know now - but the guy is Raila dude forever - my father and I use to disagree with him - but we respected his choice.
RV Pundit is a Nyayoist .They form around 15% of population in Dorminant Kalenjin Counties .They voted for Raila in 2013 and 2017.
Ruto is cut from a different cloth. Actually he amd Kirwa were amongst the first post Multi Party Kalenjins to stand up against Moi.
He knew such type of politics was not sustainable. Ruto completely destroyed ODM when it was trying to play Nyayo type of politics.
Now if we look at dissagreements Ruto has handled it well with Uhuru.He let Uhuru be.
Raila on the other hand really messed up Kibaki . Kibaki could have achieved much if it wasnt for Raila noises. Raila instead took Kenya to the absyss in 2007. In 2016 -2017 braught businesses to standtill because he never got what he wanted.
-
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power? Is the gaslighting getting to you :D?
IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power. The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.
-
Rigging will be there in 2022..baked in the cake. Rigging machinery is wholly owned by kalenjin and Gema mafia. seems there is a split between these 2 mafia group. For Ruto to win he needs both Mafia group. However, If Gema mafia decide to throw their weight behind Raila then Raila will win election by 9 am election day. i doubt there will be violence in 2022 may be in kalenjin land. maa, Turkana and Samburu will not join, nothing for them to gain. same with centro. without a strong Gema presidential candidate..there is nothing for them.
I agree, election this time around will be stolen in centro. expect to see alot of rigged out bitter UDA mp, senators, women rep in mt. kenya region..
-
Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.
Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.
My friend I am free to theorize. I am an intellectual.
NASA attempted this - but they lacked RV Warriors to actualize it.
So let assume Kenya politics is mismanaged - our security forces break into camps.
Then what happen?
The way I see - kenya cannot split into 44 tribal countries - it will be mostly old 7 provinces.
Remember those provinces were formed by Kenyans - after they told Mzungu where they wanted to be.
Kalenjin are majority in 7 counties (Bomet,Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Pokot, Baringo) - and occupy 10 countries where they have Mps (Bungoma, Tranzoia, Nakuru, and Narok) - 11 if you include Nairob in significant numbers.
In such a civil war - I see Maasai merging with Kalenjin for the sake of land issues - Maasai will want to kick people out of parts Nairobi, Kajiado,Narok, Nyandarua, Laikipi and Nakuru. These again are open well known historical issues.
If they succeed - the displacement of Mt kenya will be huge - I think 3 milllion people.
Kalenjin will also attempt to kick out Luos from sugar belt to Kibos in Kisumu, Gusii to Kucha river (nearly whole of Nyamira county) - and Luhyas from Tranzoia - Likiyuani in Kakamega- about 1-2million luhyas could be evicted.
I will be evicted from Nairobi and Kiambu where I own properties.
Coast Kenya sio Pwani is well known story - starting from Sultan of Zanzibar to the Mazuris.
NEP/NFD Seccesion wars - and wanting to join Somali is well known fact. Shift wars.
Obviously Luos also feel marginalized in kenya - and want out - but dont know where to start. I am sure once Raila loses - they will wish they were not part of Kenya.
These are scenarios....realistic of kenya as failed state in civil war.
You can shut me down - BUT CAN YOU SHUT KENYA BEING CLASSIFIED AS FRAGILE STATE - top 20 - because serious GROUP GRIEVANCES?
May friend Yugoslavia is our destiny if we do not manage our ethnic politics well.
This is not incitement - this is forewarning - that if Mlevi mishandle politics - Kenya could go to the dogs. We escaped by a whisker in 2007 only because Raila is a coward. Ruto is not a coward.
Lesotho talks again. You survived 2007 elections and ICC hacking. If there was ever to be another P.E.V. these people will hunt you down and parade you as an inciter.
Secondly forget provinces there is nothing like Rift Valley. Kalenjins are only majority in 5 Counties . The rest are distinct in nature with majority being from other tribes.
Now Kenya is a Unitary state Yuguslavia was a merger of different. Actually you need to look at Yugoslavia the way East African Coperation was before the split in late seventies.
To break Kenya you will need a referendum and a lot of support from U.N. and Foreign powers. You can see even after more than 30 years the splinter nations from Somalia are yet to be recognized.
Some of these things are easier said than done. So punguza theory mob.
Bora ni free, fair and credible election - hapo Jakom will be welcomed - as 5th - but any rigging games - we will become a failed state - and yugoslavia - six nations - is very likely - as kenya dangerous ethnicity will eventually come to bite. Jakom can run Nyanzabwe together with Luhyaland. Ruto will run Rift Valley Nation - from Nairobi :) - with Maasai as Deputy President - and Turkana as Prime Minister. Muthamaki will run Lesotho from Nyeri - with 3 million new immigrants - it will be total chaos. Sultan will run Pwani. Waria and Borana will run their own Ngamialand.
We will not have another Kalenjin warlord as a president. Moja tosha, there is 40 other tribes in Kenya. Piga queue.
I don't condone rigging but if Kenyans are dumb enough to re elect the number 2 in Jubilee whose administration literally brought down this country to its knees through corruption and wanton borrowing then I fully support usurping the jigger infested miscreants sovereign powers to choose their leaders. Kenya is too important to be given over to jambazis. I believe we won't have to resort to that, Raila is comfortably going to pull this away come next year.
-
The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power? Is the gaslighting getting to you :D?
IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power. The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.
-
No need for tribal breakdown of police.
Note there is no Kalejin at the top of any security organ in Kenya today. Most in the hands of GEMA and kidogo Kavirondo. Internal and Defence docket now 100% in Uhuru's trusted boys. This time it will be tough for Kales to play with fire. Remember they have been out of SH now 20 years unlike in 2007 when it was only 5 years. The dynamics have changed and Pundit and his ilk should remember they do not have a monopoly in violence.
Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.
Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.
-
I only indicated in case he wins.
Ruto cannot invent himself new. He is just another corrupt politician. Even if he surrounds himself with the best brains, but he himself is out to enrich himself and family, it will end up in disaster. Ruto cannot even build water dams in RV without pocketing a huge chunk of the money allocated to the construction of the dams. What will we expect from a man who has no shame to steal from his own kinsmen?
The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .
-
Maa will jump at any war to reclaim land - they know they are down and out - all they will want is for Kalenjin to start
Rigging will be there in 2022..baked in the cake. Rigging machinery is wholly owned by kalenjin and Gema mafia. seems there is a split between these 2 mafia group. For Ruto to win he needs both Mafia group. However, If Gema mafia decide to throw their weight behind Raila then Raila will win election by 9 am election day. i doubt there will be violence in 2022 may be in kalenjin land. maa, Turkana and Samburu will not join, nothing for them to gain. same with centro. without a strong Gema presidential candidate..there is nothing for them.
I agree, election this time around will be stolen in centro. expect to see alot of rigged out bitter UDA mp, senators, women rep in mt. kenya region..
-
I only indicated in case he wins.
Ruto cannot invent himself new. He is just another corrupt politician. Even if he surrounds himself with the best brains, but he himself is out to enrich himself and family, it will end up in disaster. Ruto cannot even build water dams in RV without pocketing a huge chunk of the money allocated to the construction of the dams. What will we expect from a man who has no shame to steal from his own kinsmen?
The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .
Got ya. Remote possibility IMO.
-
How will that help. Once civil war has started - even Garang - a mere conolel took off - few southern sudanese soldiers - and fought Sudan.
My friend - you really got jokes - Kenyatta took Nyandarua from Rift Valley - but if you dare take Nakuru or Laikipia - you will start a big war.
You need to read your history.
Anyway so let again help you. If Kalenjin decides that it's going to war. They will immediately mobilize the warrior class - I mean in matters of hours - warriors will have removed their clothes - wore shuka - got weapons - and will be assembling.
How many warriors are those -- mm - I think 2 million out of 6.5M kalenjin - is possible.
No other tribe in Kenya can do the same - they rest can assemble gangs - and will struggle to even get 10,000. These will be million half-trained warriors. All you need is to give them a few guns - few ex-military -or ex-police - and in 2 days maximum - they will defeat Kenya Police/GSU/APs like happened in 2007.
In fact the police will collapse in day one - because of many IDPS - that will be camping all over. They will collapse without any much fight.
Who will Kalenjin attack - I bet they will go for seccession (when Kibaki attempted to have Moi charged- Kalenjin threaten to secede) or an armed struggle to restor democracy in Nairobi (very likely if Hustler Revolution get national buyin in war)
Now the play go to the army.
How do Uhuru/Raila - let assume respond when police fails?
Obviously they will try to bring in the big guns - and will start maybe with ground troops - beating and looting - and it's at that point that Kalenjin soldiers will munity - grab as many weapons as they can - drive as many tanks as they will - and the war proper will start.
Now telling me how broke Kenya can sustain warfare - with 2 million warriors - few thousands guns - and a few military men providing guidance. Maybe 1m or more refugees if more tribes are involved
KDF will resort to throwing bombs - and doing Ethiopia type genocide or massacres. If they attempt ground troops - they will be massacred at night - for kalenjin are very adept in night battles.
Terrain wise - kalenjin land straddle rift valley - lots of hills, forests and such places - to hide - and snipe.
Meanwhile Western Kenya will be in blockade - only those who can fly - will go to Nairobi (Kenya).
KDF will resort to defending Nairobi :) from rebels :) - I think Nakuru is too much for them.
Kalenjin warriors will storm Nairobi - and Install Ruto :). Ruto I doubt will stay in Kenya if such war starts - he will go to exile - in friendly Africa country like Uganda - so Ocampo and company can know he has NO PLAY in Kalenjin war machine.
Kalenjin will then rule kenya for the next 100 yrs :) :)
Human toll in both sides will be millions.
Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.
Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.
-
RV I always admire your indepth analysis especially when backed by numbers. However this war talk is unbecoming of someone your calibre. As has been proven from the same Yugoslavia you are referring to perpetrators of war have nowhere to hide in the current world. General Mladic and Karadic were eventually caught. In Rwanda years down the line even Sabagina who helped alot of Tutsis was eventually convicted. Talking about war is easy but once you are held to account all the bravado goes away. It is easy to act in a mob/ crowd but once the dust settles and you are picked up by yourself then...god forbid. Just look at how the guys who invaded the US capital have been humbled. So do what you are good at. Give us those analytical political stuff and leave the war talk to the uneducated villagers.
-
I am just analyzing scenario. I wish you could use the same energy to call for free, fair and credible election. For that only thing that can prevent kenya for going down.
Last election - Raila went for NRM and swore himself as people president. Everyone know he didnt have much punch - he just had few stone throwers in Kondele and Kibra. He attempted to violently resist repeat election and to swear himself. He could not sustain it for a few hours. But imagine if Raila was Pokot or Somalia :). They would have brought big guns to the streets and battled the police.
Now imagine the same - with Ruto - with Kalenjin united 98 percent - angry and bitter - with both Uhuru and Raila - for previous betrayal - after doing all donkey work to win election - you brazenly rig them out. BOSS BOSS. That is war declaration.
Do not even think about it. Listen to me - it will be BAD.
Kalenjin can accept anything but to become slaves in their country like Luos have done for 60yrs - I doubt they will accept.
Kenya is not immune to horrible stuff that happened in other countries.
There is ongoing war in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, Uganda and Rwanda are military dictatorship, Congo is a mess.
What makes you think KENYA IS SO SPECIAL.
Wars start this way - exactly this way - Uhuru has done a perfect job to set a BIG WAR UP.
Kenya for a long time has been analyzed as one most fragile states.
Many groups are unhappy. They are waiting for a trigger. Coast want their own country. NFD feel they have got a raw deal in Kenya with historic margnialization. Maasa think their land was stolen and given to other people. Kalenjin also think the same. Luos-Luhya feel kikuyu-Kalenjin hegemony has made them second class citizen. Kikuyus are also bitter for people killing and evicting them yet few families benefited. Kambas feel kenya is waste of time.
In fact the happiest people in Kenya are probably Merus and my inlaws Embus - for them everything is remote - they have been on either Moi or GEMA leadership - no serious beef with anyone - they do not know even how baluhya or kalenjin or luo look like - they are middle of nowhere.
RV I always admire your indepth analysis especially when backed by numbers. However this war talk is unbecoming of someone your calibre. As has been proven from the same Yugoslavia you are referring to perpetrators of war have nowhere to hide in the current world. General Mladic and Karadic were eventually caught. In Rwanda years down the line even Sabagina who helped alot of Tutsis was eventually convicted. Talking about war is easy but once you are held to account all the bravado goes away. It is easy to act in a mob/ crowd but once the dust settles and you are picked up by yourself then...god forbid. Just look at how the guys who invaded the US capital have been humbled. So do what you are good at. Give us those analytical political stuff and leave the war talk to the uneducated villagers.
-
RV I was talking about the 33 regions suggested by PNU vs 18 Regions by ODM during the Naivasha PSC talks.
I think one thing you dont appreciate is unlike talk Politicians can make these things real through lawmaking and constituional processes. Rift Valley as a Province was scrapped just like that during the same Naivasha talks and there was no war. Constituency boumdaries were redrawn and there was no war. So stop the threats.
I will not rebutt about your agitation of war. You are self incriminating .I wouldn't want to be part of it.
How will that help. Once civil war has started - even Garang - a mere conolel took off - few southern sudanese soldiers - and fought Sudan.
My friend - you really got jokes - Kenyatta took Nyandarua from Rift Valley - but if you dare take Nakuru or Laikipia - you will start a big war.
You need to read your history.
Anyway so let again help you. If Kalenjin decides that it's going to war. They will immediately mobilize the warrior class - I mean in matters of hours - warriors will have removed their clothes - wore shuka - got weapons - and will be assembling.
How many warriors are those -- mm - I think 2 million out of 6.5M kalenjin - is possible.
No other tribe in Kenya can do the same - they rest can assemble gangs - and will struggle to even get 10,000. These will be million half-trained warriors. All you need is to give them a few guns - few ex-military -or ex-police - and in 2 days maximum - they will defeat Kenya Police/GSU/APs like happened in 2007.
In fact the police will collapse in day one - because of many IDPS - that will be camping all over. They will collapse without any much fight.
Who will Kalenjin attack - I bet they will go for seccession (when Kibaki attempted to have Moi charged- Kalenjin threaten to secede) or an armed struggle to restor democracy in Nairobi (very likely if Hustler Revolution get national buyin in war)
Now the play go to the army.
How do Uhuru/Raila - let assume respond when police fails?
Obviously they will try to bring in the big guns - and will start maybe with ground troops - beating and looting - and it's at that point that Kalenjin soldiers will munity - grab as many weapons as they can - drive as many tanks as they will - and the war proper will start.
Now telling me how broke Kenya can sustain warfare - with 2 million warriors - few thousands guns - and a few military men providing guidance. Maybe 1m or more refugees if more tribes are involved
KDF will resort to throwing bombs - and doing Ethiopia type genocide or massacres. If they attempt ground troops - they will be massacred at night - for kalenjin are very adept in night battles.
Terrain wise - kalenjin land straddle rift valley - lots of hills, forests and such places - to hide - and snipe.
Meanwhile Western Kenya will be in blockade - only those who can fly - will go to Nairobi (Kenya).
KDF will resort to defending Nairobi :) from rebels :) - I think Nakuru is too much for them.
Kalenjin warriors will storm Nairobi - and Install Ruto :). Ruto I doubt will stay in Kenya if such war starts - he will go to exile - in friendly Africa country like Uganda - so Ocampo and company can know he has NO PLAY in Kalenjin war machine.
Kalenjin will then rule kenya for the next 100 yrs :) :)
Human toll in both sides will be millions.
Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.
Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.
-
The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power? Is the gaslighting getting to you :D?
IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power. The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.
You know biggest vulture around UK?
-
Vultures are vultures or what do you mean....
The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power? Is the gaslighting getting to you :D?
IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power. The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.
You know biggest vulture around UK?
-
Vultures are vultures or what do you mean....
The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .
Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera. :D
Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power? Is the gaslighting getting to you :D?
IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power. The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.
You know biggest vulture around UK?
Vulture around UK has been around. Two bids of same feather.
-
RV I was talking about the 33 regions suggested by PNU vs 18 Regions by ODM during the Naivasha PSC talks.
I think one thing you dont appreciate is unlike talk Politicians can make these things real through lawmaking and constituional processes. Rift Valley as a Province was scrapped just like that during the same Naivasha talks and there was no war. Constituency boumdaries were redrawn and there was no war. So stop the threats.
I will not rebutt about your agitation of war. You are self incriminating .I wouldn't want to be part of it.
How will that help. Once civil war has started - even Garang - a mere conolel took off - few southern sudanese soldiers - and fought Sudan.
My friend - you really got jokes - Kenyatta took Nyandarua from Rift Valley - but if you dare take Nakuru or Laikipia - you will start a big war.
You need to read your history.
Anyway so let again help you. If Kalenjin decides that it's going to war. They will immediately mobilize the warrior class - I mean in matters of hours - warriors will have removed their clothes - wore shuka - got weapons - and will be assembling.
How many warriors are those -- mm - I think 2 million out of 6.5M kalenjin - is possible.
No other tribe in Kenya can do the same - they rest can assemble gangs - and will struggle to even get 10,000. These will be million half-trained warriors. All you need is to give them a few guns - few ex-military -or ex-police - and in 2 days maximum - they will defeat Kenya Police/GSU/APs like happened in 2007.
In fact the police will collapse in day one - because of many IDPS - that will be camping all over. They will collapse without any much fight.
Who will Kalenjin attack - I bet they will go for seccession (when Kibaki attempted to have Moi charged- Kalenjin threaten to secede) or an armed struggle to restor democracy in Nairobi (very likely if Hustler Revolution get national buyin in war)
Now the play go to the army.
How do Uhuru/Raila - let assume respond when police fails?
Obviously they will try to bring in the big guns - and will start maybe with ground troops - beating and looting - and it's at that point that Kalenjin soldiers will munity - grab as many weapons as they can - drive as many tanks as they will - and the war proper will start.
Now telling me how broke Kenya can sustain warfare - with 2 million warriors - few thousands guns - and a few military men providing guidance. Maybe 1m or more refugees if more tribes are involved
KDF will resort to throwing bombs - and doing Ethiopia type genocide or massacres. If they attempt ground troops - they will be massacred at night - for kalenjin are very adept in night battles.
Terrain wise - kalenjin land straddle rift valley - lots of hills, forests and such places - to hide - and snipe.
Meanwhile Western Kenya will be in blockade - only those who can fly - will go to Nairobi (Kenya).
KDF will resort to defending Nairobi :) from rebels :) - I think Nakuru is too much for them.
Kalenjin warriors will storm Nairobi - and Install Ruto :). Ruto I doubt will stay in Kenya if such war starts - he will go to exile - in friendly Africa country like Uganda - so Ocampo and company can know he has NO PLAY in Kalenjin war machine.
Kalenjin will then rule kenya for the next 100 yrs :) :)
Human toll in both sides will be millions.
Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.
Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.
No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand
-
One thing for sure Rift Valley and the other Provinces were scrapped and ODM blamed Ruto and thought they would use it as a weapon to fight Ruto poliically among Kipsigis.
The argument that ODM were using is that Kipsigis now will be in three Counties and minority in Narok.
The point is if Politicians decide to redraw borders they can do it through lawmaking and constituional means and there will be no war .
Constituencies borders were altered by introducing more constituencies from 210 to 290. Similarly its an exercise IEBC should have done by now and there will never be war as long as done in accordance with the Constituion. War mongers will be arrested.
Stop misleading people that provinces were created by Mzungu during Colonial times as Kenyans wanted them that way. Collonial master created them to safeguard their interests and farms.
No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand
-
One thing for sure Rift Valley and the other Provinces were scrapped and ODM blamed Ruto and thought they would use it as a weapon to fight Ruto poliically among Kipsigis.
The argument that ODM were using is that Kipsigis now will be in three Counties and minority in Narok.
The point is if Politicians decide to redraw borders they can do it through lawmaking and constituional means and there will be no war .
Constituencies borders were altered by introducing more constituencies from 210 to 290. Similarly its an exercise IEBC should have done by now and there will never be war as long as done in accordance with the Constituion. War mongers will be arrested.
Stop misleading people that provinces were created by Mzungu during Colonial times as Kenyans wanted them that way. Collonial master created them to safeguard their interests and farms.
No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand
I really pity you.Kenya old constitution had majimbo and name it based on old province.British hired a surveyor from Manchester to head commission on boundaries..the results Kenya wanted district to respect old tribal borders and province to reflect tribal alliance..kipsigis were in nyanza... kipsigis express the desire to join rest of kalenjin in rift valley..this was granted..kericho was moved from nyanza to rift valley..all was settled.. however when Kenyatta and luos who lost in Lancaster...set out to undo everything they lost in Lancaster uk.They killed majimbo.Then jomo unhappy that central was just three district of kiambu,nyeri and muranga..took kirinyanga from embu eastern..split Nakuru to two..took Nyandarua to central..luos also complained about that SONY was big..jaramogi split it two..migori and homabay.During Moi regime gusii was split into nyamira, kakamega into vihiga, kericho to bomet, Meru to create tharaka, machakos to create Makueni.I believe Kenya is okay now except few unhappy tribes .sabaot in bungoma..kuria in migori..etc.We need to respect our tribal heritage and avoid tribal wars.These are weighty issues..kikuyus classifying Nakuru and laukipia mt Kenya is inciting war...that is why lee is jobless before any vote is cast...how can Nakuru become Mt kenya..how is that even remotely possible ..it pure incitement to kalenjin and maasai.its like saying muranga is ukambani.Then when I help here you accuse me of incitement..while lee is doing it
-
You are now speaking like a Colonialist. Its very clear Mzungu settler was looking for his own interests during colonial times .He teamed up with KADU team to root for Federal system of Governance . Thats how we ended up with the provinces and a Majimbo form of Government .
Currently we dont have Provinces mainly thanks to Both Rutos . Also Regional Governments idea eas thrown out. ODM wanted to use regional government to check the National Government.
Ruto joined hands with Uhuru and scrapped Provinces and threw away the idea of 3 Tier government.If ODM idea had gone through The Kikuyu dominated Nakuru snd Laikipia counties would have found themselves at the mercy of Kalenjins in that regional Government.
This was amongst the last items to be negotiated for.
One thing for sure Rift Valley and the other Provinces were scrapped and ODM blamed Ruto and thought they would use it as a weapon to fight Ruto poliically among Kipsigis.
The argument that ODM were using is that Kipsigis now will be in three Counties and minority in Narok.
The point is if Politicians decide to redraw borders they can do it through lawmaking and constituional means and there will be no war .
Constituencies borders were altered by introducing more constituencies from 210 to 290. Similarly its an exercise IEBC should have done by now and there will never be war as long as done in accordance with the Constituion. War mongers will be arrested.
Stop misleading people that provinces were created by Mzungu during Colonial times as Kenyans wanted them that way. Collonial master created them to safeguard their interests and farms.
No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand
I really pity you.Kenya old constitution had majimbo and name it based on old province.British hired a surveyor from Manchester to head commission on boundaries..the results Kenya wanted district to respect old tribal borders and province to reflect tribal alliance..kipsigis were in nyanza... kipsigis express the desire to join rest of kalenjin in rift valley..this was granted..kericho was moved from nyanza to rift valley..all was settled.. however when Kenyatta and luos who lost in Lancaster...set out to undo everything they lost in Lancaster uk.They killed majimbo.Then jomo unhappy that central was just three district of kiambu,nyeri and muranga..took kirinyanga from embu eastern..split Nakuru to two..took Nyandarua to central..luos also complained about that SONY was big..jaramogi split it two..migori and homabay.During Moi regime gusii was split into nyamira, kakamega into vihiga, kericho to bomet, Meru to create tharaka, machakos to create Makueni.I believe Kenya is okay now except few unhappy tribes .sabaot in bungoma..kuria in migori..etc.We need to respect our tribal heritage and avoid tribal wars.These are weighty issues..kikuyus classifying Nakuru and laukipia mt Kenya is inciting war...that is why lee is jobless before any vote is cast...how can Nakuru become Mt kenya..how is that even remotely possible ..it pure incitement to kalenjin and maasai.its like saying muranga is ukambani.Then when I help here you accuse me of incitement..while lee is doing it
-
Regional or province I belief is useless..if we are democratic..it only useful if you need alliance politically.I believe in Kenya real province is tribal nations.. kalenjin..kamba.. kikuyu..it easy said done until you get to Nairobi or Nakuru.. otherwise I would recognize tribal nations..maybe 10 regions and few comspolitan.Not worthy.Counties are working.But don't think in war situations people won't bring such issues as real issues..land grievances is always buried in shallow grave
-
Pokot live in unforgiving terrain, and have nothing to lose. Not so with Kalenjins in heavy infrastructure areas and invested in village towns.
You desperately wish Kalenjins were feared but nobody fears them.
You are even praying KDF and Police split to realize your fantasies.
I’m told Ruto won’t be on the ballot let alone rigging
How do you plan to keep Ruto out of the ballot? You're more worried that RV worriers.
You see we have been throught this kind of ritual before - in 2007 - together with RVs we would warn - then folks here would dismiss - then next day when shiet goes down - then story would change - saying Ruto is Kabuga - ohoo dead man walking - ohoo kalenjin are savages. Yet we had warned them. Then they would say ohoo Mungiki will go down there and finish the warrios - we tell them impossible - but they never listen.
People need to listen and listen well. Like Farah said - you do not take war to Mogadishu or Kabul or Tigray - and claim you will emerge victorious. The same with kalenjin nation. Kalenjin are primarly a martial community. They are at home in war.
Please ask how the KDF+GSU+APS are doing in Laikipia now - Nothing. Zero arrest. Zero dead Pokot. Zero arrested Pokot. Meanwhile Pokots have sneaked in once in a while - killed and stolen cattle right at the nose of multi-agency force - now imagine entire kalenin rising in all it's many corners. Boss...the damage in a single day alone will be massive...2007 was just two fronts - mostly kikuyu/gusii - if they open war on all fronts - we are talking humanitarian crisis of maybe 2 milllion internal refugees in 24hours.
Whatever you do - mr deep state poodle - do not provoke kalenjin nation into a war - unless you do not love this country.
Last time it took international mediation to stem a civil strife. The warriors do not throw stones for a day or two - they go to war. With poison arrows - the police are useless. With a few guns - KDF are also useless. If KDF goes in big - chance of them splitting is high.
The plan is to keep Ruto off the ballot so there's no need to steal his votes.
Whoever loses will of course whine about rigging as usual, rush to court, and there will be skirmishes here and there but nothing big.
RV worriers are clearly worried :)
-
I think you listen to Atwoli too much hapo Butere. Ruto will be eligible to run..unless you plan to declare him bankrupt or mad...I dont see how you can jail him and have him exhaust all appeals and review. If Ruto run as DPORk while indicted by ICC...what will stop him in 2022.
Dont listen to Atwoli - the old man is an idiot - unless you're one too.
If you want to test Kalenjin resolve and war readiness....try any time. If Sabaot - a very tiny kalenjin subtribe - that is even derided by kalenjin proper as being mixed with luhyas - made GSU/APs totally useless- and they had to call KDF - you do not want to try Kalenjin proper. Tiny pokots - GSU/APs cannot handle it - KDF have to step in.
Pokot are not the toughest of Kalenjin. They just have guns. Otherwise they are very few numbers to be effective. If you give Kipsigis and Nandis guns - out of sheer number - they will make Pokot sing. Nandi use to make Pokot sing before British arrived. Nandi alone kept British - his entire troop from Uganda and all neigberhouring tribes busy for 15yrs - in longest resistance in East Africa - and the Mzungu went to great lengths to stop Kipsigis from aligning with Nandis in that war - otherwise it would have been impossible.
Dont ask for war you cannot win. Kalenjin have been running kenya warfar since 1850 - when they overtook Maasai.
Ask kikuyus - they have pulled all their cards - but once Kalenjin go to war - it serious business. I have seen it myself. You need to understand that Kalenjin will respond in military manner in great numbers in few hours when a war cry is declared. As kalenjin population increase...the number of warriors they can raise has also increased. If you can take on 2 million fairly trained armed youths fighting in a war - then go for it. Do not expect police force and military whose combined number is less than 100K to do miracles.
As Farah Maalim say - find a way to beat Ruto in the most fair and credible manner - anything else mean you do not like Kenya. For if you like Kenya - you wont want to incite Kalenjin nation to war. 2007 will look like child play - number of jobless youths now is greater - and th candidate is kalenjin. The motivation could not be greater.
Otherwise this same ritual - we had in 2007 - where we warned Kibaki here online - he didnt listen - 500k people evicted in 3 days - and many properties and lives lost - and he had to call Annan. Then next few years we wake up to Kalenjin were organized - the war was pre-planned - ohoo take Ruto to ICC. When we tell them - no kalejin were not organized or pre-planned - they deny it. In 92 - we had some nonsense about Korea imported arrows and private militia trained by Biwott. While anyone with basic knowledge of kalenjin understand its martial community that military rise depending on the threat to defend or attack in shortest possible time in an organized manner...they prepare for such eventuality through annual boys conversion to warriors...where the basics of war are drilled.
Pokot live in unforgiving terrain, and have nothing to lose. Not so with Kalenjins in heavy infrastructure areas and invested in village towns.
You desperately wish Kalenjins were feared but nobody fears them.
You are even praying KDF and Police split to realize your fantasies.
I’m told Ruto won’t be on the ballot let alone rigging
-
I doubt that 254 would go that direction. We have check n Balance in place. Plus the presidency is slowly but surely being demystified. I would like to see a President Ruto. But we'll be fine too if Baba get's elected - and he is gaining traction.
Once RV start the entire region including as far South Sudan/Congo/Uganda will be plunged into chaos. Refer to 2007. It also likely that class war will erupt in Mt kenya as they will see their elite as the main cause of the civil war and their sufferings. So expect Mois, Kenyattas and likes properties to be destroyed. I dont know how places like Coast and Northern Kenya will react.
Ultimately I see tribal clashes becoming a civil war. Civil war means Army and Police breaking up into say Pro-Ruto (hustler) and Pro-Gov.
Once that happen Kenya is history. I believe in 2007 - the police in Nakuru divided into ODM versus PNU - with both side exchanging fire - and Kibaki had to deploy KDF from Lanet barracks. This is like end game play (the last ace on gov cards).
Thankfully he also called Annan - for peace talks - because KDF cannot handle such a wide conflict - for more than two weeks - before they also split - as Kalenjin in KDF will not witnesses maiming of their people - before they start shooting their colleague.
Kibaki really struggle in 2007 - shuffling police and army based on tribes - trying to send ODM leaning ones to deep Northern Kenya - trying to protect armoury.
It get very dicey very easily in a very tribal country like kenya.
Do not bet on corrupt and cowardly police. That everyone knows.
KDF - is 50-50 - they either take power as united force or they split
Regionally Museveni has no time for Raila - and will promptly aid such a civil war.
Kalenjin will take about 24hours to render Kenya Police useless - if they erupt from all corners with arms and block all entry to RV - the police will be overwhelmed. They will take about a week to render KDF useless.
7M people with possibly 2-3 million active warriors with basic rudimentary training - cannot be arraigned against 40K police and 25K KDF. It's an impossible war.
At that point it really depend - on how quickly Kalenjin will upgrade to guns - and that can easily be arraigned by someone like Museveni - and it become full blown civil war - that kenya will take 10yrs to recover from - if it doesnt split into many countries.
Big question, is Mt Kenya ready to die for Ruto?
Otherwise apart form RV, there will be no violence unless Ruto plunge the country into chaos like in RSA after the Jacob Zuma arrest. Mind you as a big "investor" in the country he will be one of the biggest loosers.
-
Even with devolution - PORK still big business in Kenya. What is important is for Uhuru to assist IEBC to hold the most fair, credible and clean election. If there any any issues - for Koome and judiciary to fix them. If NASA loses - they will try the usual - Kondele or Kibra stones thrown - Raila sworn. If Ruto loses unfairly - Kalenjin nation will rise - and declare war. What follows will pretty much depend - on whether the war become localized in RV or catches fire nationally. In any case even war in RV will be national and regional in character for it almost a center of kenya.
This is not an election to play games. Unless you do not love kenya.
So far apart from initial misuse of curfew rules to block Ruto - I see everything is going on well. Ruto team are able to campaign freely. Raila team are also campaigning freely. Matiangi-Kibicho have redericted their enegeries where it most needed - in cattle rustling and terrorism - not in misusing police to block political rallies.
IEBC also have the support - all commissioners in, ballot tender given, technology providers I dont know, mass registration going on - ODM have accepted to win or lose - we are doing great on that front.
Judiciary is also doing very well - as independent arbiter. Even DPP has woken up from Kinoti DCI takeover. Security wise - we have poodle kamba guy as police head and polical hack Kinoti being misused to threaten and intimidate leaders - those are the biggest risk I see in Kenya.
So I would say we are on the right track but the risk are there....
Allow all candidates to freely campaign. Avoid any pre-election violence by say stonning Ruto - especially if you are community neighbouring Kalenjin ( Luos, Luhyas, Gusii, Kikuyus)...Nyachae attacking Ruto with bows and arrows in 2007 sucked Gusii in a war they should not have been part of. Allow IEBCs to do their job. Allow parties to get their agents and observers to cross-check IEBC.
If all that is done - Kenya will be Marwa! Whether Ruto or Raila wins or Lose. Kalenjin knows Ruto is very young....so they will take his loss with stride...only if the loss is fair and square.
I doubt that 254 would go that direction. We have check n Balance in place. Plus the presidency is slowly but surely being demystified. I would like to see a President Ruto. But we'll be fine too if Baba get's elected - and he is gaining traction.
-
Ruto can’t possibly lose “fairly” because you hallucinate he is already at 70%. That’s what caused violence; claims of rigging, a separate matter from actual rigging
Even with devolution - PORK still big business in Kenya. What is important is for Uhuru to assist IEBC to hold the most fair, credible and clean election. If there any any issues - for Koome and judiciary to fix them. If NASA loses - they will try the usual - Kondele or Kibra stones thrown - Raila sworn. If Ruto loses unfairly - Kalenjin nation will rise - and declare war. What follows will pretty much depend - on whether the war become localized in RV or catches fire nationally. In any case even war in RV will be national and regional in character for it almost a center of kenya.
This is not an election to play games. Unless you do not love kenya.
So far apart from initial misuse of curfew rules to block Ruto - I see everything is going on well. Ruto team are able to campaign freely. Raila team are also campaigning freely. Matiangi-Kibicho have redericted their enegeries where it most needed - in cattle rustling and terrorism - not in misusing police to block political rallies.
IEBC also have the support - all commissioners in, ballot tender given, technology providers I dont know, mass registration going on - ODM have accepted to win or lose - we are doing great on that front.
Judiciary is also doing very well - as independent arbiter. Even DPP has woken up from Kinoti DCI takeover. Security wise - we have poodle kamba guy as police head and polical hack Kinoti being misused to threaten and intimidate leaders - those are the biggest risk I see in Kenya.
So I would say we are on the right track but the risk are there....
Allow all candidates to freely campaign. Avoid any pre-election violence by say stonning Ruto - especially if you are community neighbouring Kalenjin ( Luos, Luhyas, Gusii, Kikuyus)...Nyachae attacking Ruto with bows and arrows in 2007 sucked Gusii in a war they should not have been part of. Allow IEBCs to do their job. Allow parties to get their agents and observers to cross-check IEBC.
If all that is done - Kenya will be Marwa! Whether Ruto or Raila wins or Lose. Kalenjin knows Ruto is very young....so they will take his loss with stride...only if the loss is fair and square.
I doubt that 254 would go that direction. We have check n Balance in place. Plus the presidency is slowly but surely being demystified. I would like to see a President Ruto. But we'll be fine too if Baba get's elected - and he is gaining traction.
-
Not impressed
2007 PEV was largely against diasporans deep inside Kalenjin lands. 1992 and 97 too. Kalenjins worriers are only good at decimating pockets of madoadoa
I think you listen to Atwoli too much hapo Butere. Ruto will be eligible to run..unless you plan to declare him bankrupt or mad...I dont see how you can jail him and have him exhaust all appeals and review. If Ruto run as DPORk while indicted by ICC...what will stop him in 2022.
Dont listen to Atwoli - the old man is an idiot - unless you're one too.
If you want to test Kalenjin resolve and war readiness....try any time. If Sabaot - a very tiny kalenjin subtribe - that is even derided by kalenjin proper as being mixed with luhyas - made GSU/APs totally useless- and they had to call KDF - you do not want to try Kalenjin proper. Tiny pokots - GSU/APs cannot handle it - KDF have to step in.
Pokot are not the toughest of Kalenjin. They just have guns. Otherwise they are very few numbers to be effective. If you give Kipsigis and Nandis guns - out of sheer number - they will make Pokot sing. Nandi use to make Pokot sing before British arrived. Nandi alone kept British - his entire troop from Uganda and all neigberhouring tribes busy for 15yrs - in longest resistance in East Africa - and the Mzungu went to great lengths to stop Kipsigis from aligning with Nandis in that war - otherwise it would have been impossible.
Dont ask for war you cannot win. Kalenjin have been running kenya warfar since 1850 - when they overtook Maasai.
Ask kikuyus - they have pulled all their cards - but once Kalenjin go to war - it serious business. I have seen it myself. You need to understand that Kalenjin will respond in military manner in great numbers in few hours when a war cry is declared. As kalenjin population increase...the number of warriors they can raise has also increased. If you can take on 2 million fairly trained armed youths fighting in a war - then go for it. Do not expect police force and military whose combined number is less than 100K to do miracles.
As Farah Maalim say - find a way to beat Ruto in the most fair and credible manner - anything else mean you do not like Kenya. For if you like Kenya - you wont want to incite Kalenjin nation to war. 2007 will look like child play - number of jobless youths now is greater - and th candidate is kalenjin. The motivation could not be greater.
Otherwise this same ritual - we had in 2007 - where we warned Kibaki here online - he didnt listen - 500k people evicted in 3 days - and many properties and lives lost - and he had to call Annan. Then next few years we wake up to Kalenjin were organized - the war was pre-planned - ohoo take Ruto to ICC. When we tell them - no kalejin were not organized or pre-planned - they deny it. In 92 - we had some nonsense about Korea imported arrows and private militia trained by Biwott. While anyone with basic knowledge of kalenjin understand its martial community that military rise depending on the threat to defend or attack in shortest possible time in an organized manner...they prepare for such eventuality through annual boys conversion to warriors...where the basics of war are drilled.
Pokot live in unforgiving terrain, and have nothing to lose. Not so with Kalenjins in heavy infrastructure areas and invested in village towns.
You desperately wish Kalenjins were feared but nobody fears them.
You are even praying KDF and Police split to realize your fantasies.
I’m told Ruto won’t be on the ballot let alone rigging
-
MOAS is my opinion - it's not a fact.
Fairness in election - starts now. All candidates should be allowed to campaign freely. We know UDA.Ruto has been subjected to violence either by police or goons supported by polices. We saw it in Kibra, Matungu, Gusii, Muranga (leading to deaths) and many areas.
I am happy that has ended. Ruto has for the last two months campaigned freely and fairly. If Deep States do not get scared - and allow Ruto to freely sell his policies - and he loses - then he or kalenjin cannot claim rigging.
As we go through the electioneering calender - IEBC should be allowed to do it's job - and any violation - nipped in the bud.
If rigging happen on the voting day - Ruto has to gather evidence - his agents should be allowed in every polling station - observers the same.
If there are any malpractises - Koome should listen to evidence - do the needful.
If this is done - yes no violence will occur. Kalenjin will wait for another opportunity.
Like I have said - Kalenjin will only go to war if there is good reason to do so.
Ruto can’t possibly lose “fairly” because you hallucinate he is already at 70%. That’s what caused violence; claims of rigging, a separate matter from actual rigging
-
This is nothing but anxiety from Kalenjin Ruto supporters, it’s dawning on them that this is not going to be a walk in the park. I am 100% sure that Uhuru doesn’t want a legacy of even one death in Kenya because of politics. Why do you think as a president the guy became obsessed with BBI? he had intentions of bringing the country and avoiding the cycle of bloodshed during the elections. I used to be an anti Raila jubilee supporter, I have been there with the anxiety, it will get worse once Raila starts putting his million man shows in Nairobi and alignments begin to take shape.
-
People already died in Muranga from politics. Please sometime listen to miserable self. You sound ridicilous almost daily - eti BBI Uhuru wanted sijui nini.
Uhuru kieleweke - went to a slum in thika - paid few young men to go and attempt to block Ruto attending the church - violence that included tear gasing the church happened - and non locals boys were easily identified and killed - many others injured as they escaped back to thika.
This is nothing but anxiety from Kalenjin Ruto supporters, it’s dawning on them that this is not going to be a walk in the park. I am 100% sure that Uhuru doesn’t want a legacy of even one death in Kenya because of politics. Why do you think as a president the guy became obsessed with BBI? he had intentions of bringing the country and avoiding the cycle of bloodshed during the elections. I used to be an anti Raila jubilee supporter, I have been there with the anxiety, it will get worse once Raila starts putting his million man shows in Nairobi and alignments begin to take shape.
-
You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.
You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?
Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.
If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers. If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence
MOAS is my opinion - it's not a fact.
Fairness in election - starts now. All candidates should be allowed to campaign freely. We know UDA.Ruto has been subjected to violence either by police or goons supported by polices. We saw it in Kibra, Matungu, Gusii, Muranga (leading to deaths) and many areas.
I am happy that has ended. Ruto has for the last two months campaigned freely and fairly. If Deep States do not get scared - and allow Ruto to freely sell his policies - and he loses - then he or kalenjin cannot claim rigging.
As we go through the electioneering calender - IEBC should be allowed to do it's job - and any violation - nipped in the bud.
If rigging happen on the voting day - Ruto has to gather evidence - his agents should be allowed in every polling station - observers the same.
If there are any malpractises - Koome should listen to evidence - do the needful.
If this is done - yes no violence will occur. Kalenjin will wait for another opportunity.
Like I have said - Kalenjin will only go to war if there is good reason to do so.
Ruto can’t possibly lose “fairly” because you hallucinate he is already at 70%. That’s what caused violence; claims of rigging, a separate matter from actual rigging
-
2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.
In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.
If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.
So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?
This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.
You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.
You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?
Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.
If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers. If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence
-
RV can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been. That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed. Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles. I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest. Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki. From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo. Have the opposition figures come in very fast. The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap. That strategy almost worked for Trump too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.
-
We did with Papaf MOAS. It was my first MOAS or 2nd - mine was Raila at 46 percent - Kibaki was at 43 percent. I thought Kalonzo would get 10-12 percent - there a wakwitu character who was really pushing Kaloi.
Basically it was 2005 referendum results - with Kalonzo 10 percent removed from Raila. Orange had won by 58 percent - with Kibaki team losing with 42 percent. As we approached election - no major realignment happened - except for Kalonzo bolting out of ODM to ODM-K.
ODM were not releasing result late or early. It was the work of ECK. All elections results nearer Nairobi would check in early in all previous election and referendum. Those days ECK returning officer had to drive all the way to Nairobi. Those in Mandera and Turkana would take some time...why would Ruiru...just 20kms from Nairobi would not arrive when Turkana North and Mandera North had checked?
So stop this crap about Kibaki or Raila witholding results. ODM or Raila had no role in when results would arrive in ECK KICC. Kibaki basically prevented ECK from doing their job. They compromised and sometimes kidnapped returning officer to withhold the results - because they needed to know the TOP UP MARGIN - did the padding - and then escorted ECK ROs to file rigged polls.
Unlike NASA propaganda of 2013/2017 - results if they stream in randomly - should reflect the total - once you have good enough sample - it how scientific research is done - well selected sample can represent the entire population.
RV can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been. That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed. Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles. I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest. Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki. From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo. Have the opposition figures come in very fast. The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap. That strategy almost worked for Trump too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.
-
Beliefs
Beliefs
2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.
It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations
In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.
2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.
In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.
If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.
So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?
This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.
You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.
You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?
Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.
If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers. If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence
-
Why didnt he not participate in a re-run.
Beliefs
Beliefs
2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.
It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations
In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.
2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.
In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.
If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.
So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?
This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.
You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.
You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?
Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.
If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers. If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence
-
Crap stuff ODM rigged everyone rigged. Kibaki worn 2007 fair and square only the margin was small maybe he worn by arou 23,000 votes.
Kibaki will go down in history as a warrior who didn't cave in to cave men. Long live Kibaki and may God bless you always
-
We did with Papaf MOAS. It was my first MOAS or 2nd - mine was Raila at 46 percent - Kibaki was at 43 percent. I thought Kalonzo would get 10-12 percent - there a wakwitu character who was really pushing Kaloi.
Basically it was 2005 referendum results - with Kalonzo 10 percent removed from Raila. Orange had won by 58 percent - with Kibaki team losing with 42 percent. As we approached election - no major realignment happened - except for Kalonzo bolting out of ODM to ODM-K.
ODM were not releasing result late or early. It was the work of ECK. All elections results nearer Nairobi would check in early in all previous election and referendum. Those days ECK returning officer had to drive all the way to Nairobi. Those in Mandera and Turkana would take some time...why would Ruiru...just 20kms from Nairobi would not arrive when Turkana North and Mandera North had checked?
So stop this crap about Kibaki or Raila witholding results. ODM or Raila had no role in when results would arrive in ECK KICC. Kibaki basically prevented ECK from doing their job. They compromised and sometimes kidnapped returning officer to withhold the results - because they needed to know the TOP UP MARGIN - did the padding - and then escorted ECK ROs to file rigged polls.
Unlike NASA propaganda of 2013/2017 - results if they stream in randomly - should reflect the total - once you have good enough sample - it how scientific research is done - well selected sample can represent the entire population.
RV can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been. That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed. Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles. I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest. Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki. From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo. Have the opposition figures come in very fast. The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap. That strategy almost worked for Trump too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.
Another one of those flukes. Using 2005 referendum is one lame example because we all know that religious groups and Kanu opposed the referendum but the same was not applicable in the elections. We all remember what happened where disagreements were created to prevent results to be announced by party officials while in most opposition areas the PNU guys were not even allowed in. I remember nation media group was posting results in a bar graph type and when they stopped Raila was ahead by close to a million. We were following with my friends and had placed bets on different provinces. I pointed out the same thing am telling you when my buddies some of whom we fell out unfortunately that the opposition areas were almost done while central was only starting. Go back and repost the registered numbers by province then and the election results then we compare. I belief we are good at analyzing the numbers and we can come up with a near accurate of what happened . Remember Rv plus Nyanza voted overwhelmingly for Raila while Central, Upper eastern with close to eight hundred thousand votes went to PNU plus greater Nakuru with a very huge Kikuyu population. If I remember correctly Rv had about 1.8-2m voters, Luo Nyanza about a million while Central alone had about 2.4 million registered voters. So my request is the same without bias post the registered numbers and the election results we dissect them. We are learned people here not villagers who just believe stuff. We should be open to persuasion as intellectuals right?
-
2005 had no church - you're confusing with 2010. Only Uhuru and Moi family switched camp to PNU. They had almost zero impact.
If you're really interested in the intellectual part - not the emotional part - foresnic analysis has been done - and rigging areas identified.
Another one of those flukes. Using 2005 referendum is one lame example because we all know that religious groups and Kanu opposed the referendum but the same was not applicable in the elections. We all remember what happened where disagreements were created to prevent results to be announced by party officials while in most opposition areas the PNU guys were not even allowed in. I remember nation media group was posting results in a bar graph type and when they stopped Raila was ahead by close to a million. We were following with my friends and had placed bets on different provinces. I pointed out the same thing am telling you when my buddies some of whom we fell out unfortunately that the opposition areas were almost done while central was only starting. Go back and repost the registered numbers by province then and the election results then we compare. I belief we are good at analyzing the numbers and we can come up with a near accurate of what happened . Remember Rv plus Nyanza voted overwhelmingly for Raila while Central, Upper eastern with close to eight hundred thousand votes went to PNU plus greater Nakuru with a very huge Kikuyu population. If I remember correctly Rv had about 1.8-2m voters, Luo Nyanza about a million while Central alone had about 2.4 million registered voters. So my request is the same without bias post the registered numbers and the election results we dissect them. We are learned people here not villagers who just believe stuff. We should be open to persuasion as intellectuals right?
-
Rigged then won fair and square. I think 1,000 dead people and 600K evicted will want to disagree. Kibaki messed up kenya but thankfully we got cok2010 constitution from that war.
Crap stuff ODM rigged everyone rigged. Kibaki worn 2007 fair and square only the margin was small maybe he worn by arou 23,000 votes.
Kibaki will go down in history as a warrior who didn't cave in to cave men. Long live Kibaki and may God bless you always
-
Rigged then won fair and square. I think 1,000 dead people and 600K evicted will want to disagree. Kibaki messed up kenya but thankfully we got cok2010 constitution from that war.
Crap stuff ODM rigged everyone rigged. Kibaki worn 2007 fair and square only the margin was small maybe he worn by arou 23,000 votes.
Kibaki will go down in history as a warrior who didn't cave in to cave men. Long live Kibaki and may God bless you always
Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.
-
Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.
In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived. That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori, Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.
2007 was truly a war - not an election.
How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.
The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.
Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.
-
Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.
In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived. That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori, Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.
2007 was truly a war - not an election.
How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.
The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.
Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.
The truth is closer to what Njuri is saying. Kibaki won but with a small margin. I had the privilege of knowing Noah Wekesa as a family friend in Transnzoia and remember he was the Pnu elections coordinator then and that is the same thing he said privately to friends. Gumo later said the same thing. Most rational people knew ODM lost but its not easy to convince ordinary folks. I repeat again post those 2 numbers and you will see a clear picture emerge. It's just like 2013 and 2017. The opposition doesn't have the numbers. Today Ruto is only competing with 50 plus one not Raila unless Mt Kenya are convinced to reject him.A very tall order.
-
Kibaki made the biggest mistake to make his homeboys the top hanchos in his regime. Who knew the likes of Chri Murungaru before 2003? Kibaki in 2003 was not mentally fit to be president. Those surrounding him took advantage of the situation and turned a majority of the country against Kibaki. Kikuyus play here the tribal card, but it is them who played the tribal card before the rest followed. Kibaki in 2002 had a majority of Kenyans behind him, irrespective of their ethnic origins.
Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.
In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived. That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori, Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.
2007 was truly a war - not an election.
How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.
The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.
-
Please dissassociate RV pundit from Ruto . He is a Nyayoist and if you read his posts he so appears to be a Raila supporter. His beliefs and Ideals are those of ODM.
RV Pundit has come out clearly before pointing out he supported Raila im 2005 and 2007. He has pointed out that if Raila wins he is very much okei. Put him where he belongs in ODM and with Raila.
This is nothing but anxiety from Kalenjin Ruto supporters, it’s dawning on them that this is not going to be a walk in the park. I am 100% sure that Uhuru doesn’t want a legacy of even one death in Kenya because of politics. Why do you think as a president the guy became obsessed with BBI? he had intentions of bringing the country and avoiding the cycle of bloodshed during the elections. I used to be an anti Raila jubilee supporter, I have been there with the anxiety, it will get worse once Raila starts putting his million man shows in Nairobi and alignments begin to take shape.
-
Ruto is what you call Muungwana, He lost 2010 Referendumn . Accepted and became its biggest defender. Tell me amongst 1997,2007, and 2017 has Raila ever accepted election outcome.
Ruto has been on record more than once saying Kibaki won 2007 elections though he was ODM at that particular time.
You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.
You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?
Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.
If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers. If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence
MOAS is my opinion - it's not a fact.
Fairness in election - starts now. All candidates should be allowed to campaign freely. We know UDA.Ruto has been subjected to violence either by police or goons supported by polices. We saw it in Kibra, Matungu, Gusii, Muranga (leading to deaths) and many areas.
I am happy that has ended. Ruto has for the last two months campaigned freely and fairly. If Deep States do not get scared - and allow Ruto to freely sell his policies - and he loses - then he or kalenjin cannot claim rigging.
As we go through the electioneering calender - IEBC should be allowed to do it's job - and any violation - nipped in the bud.
If rigging happen on the voting day - Ruto has to gather evidence - his agents should be allowed in every polling station - observers the same.
If there are any malpractises - Koome should listen to evidence - do the needful.
If this is done - yes no violence will occur. Kalenjin will wait for another opportunity.
Like I have said - Kalenjin will only go to war if there is good reason to do so.
Ruto can’t possibly lose “fairly” because you hallucinate he is already at 70%. That’s what caused violence; claims of rigging, a separate matter from actual rigging
-
Even RV agrees . if Raila supported Kalonzo Kibaki would have lost
Same mistake they are doing now If Raila runs Ruto will win and still ODM will claim it was rigged.
About results coming in it was Medias fault . Wherever they wete getting those results only they know. They were not official results.
Ive showcased right here ODM strongholds had miraculous voter turn out.
RV can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been. That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed. Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles. I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest. Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki. From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo. Have the opposition figures come in very fast. The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap. That strategy almost worked for Trump too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.
-
Yes, he was always like that, even when sober, in 80s he was called VP of Othaya. He is very brilliant but he is not a politician. He is aloof and doesnt like people. He is not natural people person. That is how he turned super majority to nothing in 2yrs. He became insular.
Kibaki made the biggest mistake to make his homeboys the top hanchos in his regime. Who knew the likes of Chri Murungaru before 2003? Kibaki in 2003 was not mentally fit to be president. Those surrounding him took advantage of the situation and turned a majority of the country against Kibaki. Kikuyus play here the tribal card, but it is them who played the tribal card before the rest followed. Kibaki in 2002 had a majority of Kenyans behind him, irrespective of their ethnic origins.
-
Raila who demonized Kibaki during his Presidency is today calling him his Hero. There you have your answer.
Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.
In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived. That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori, Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.
2007 was truly a war - not an election.
How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.
The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.
Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.
-
You like insulting me. I have never supported Moi or Nyayo. I hated KANU with all my heart growing up.
I see you're trying to box me. I am just me. I am very brutally honest and blunt.
Yes I supported Raila in ODM - then switched to supporting Ruto. I must say I supported Raila while covering my nose. Like many Kalenjin the more we became bitter the more we let that anger makes us wrong choice. Kalonzo was the better choice...sober. Raila is just too mercurial..you just dont know which Raila will turn up tomorrow. Un predictablity is not good character for leadership.
Kalenjin only supported Raila because they were looking for anti-dote of Kibaki and kikuyu regime - someone who would punish GEMA. Most Raila supporters even now - see Raila as the GEMA anti-dote. Now with Raila trying to kiss GEMA - they are jumping to Ruto.
That anti-gema coalition was Nyayo/Moi coalition.
I have followed Ruto politics from 2001 - when I discovered he was such a terrific talent - and I am not surprised by how far he has come.
Please dissassociate RV pundit from Ruto . He is a Nyayoist and if you read his posts he so appears to be a Raila supporter. His beliefs and Ideals are those of ODM.
RV Pundit has come out clearly before pointing out he supported Raila im 2005 and 2007. He has pointed out that if Raila wins he is very much okei. Put him where he belongs in ODM and with Raila.
-
ODM appointed a committee of elders - led by Ntimama/Gumo/others
They commissioned a study - basically some experts to do MOAS - on possible scenarios.
Conclusion - all of ODM luminaries would beat Kibaki.
But only Kalonzo could beat Kibaki in rig proof margins.
A meeting was held in Kenya Club with all ODM luminaries
Ruto was chosen to deliver the bad news.
Ruto told Raila point blank his win was going to be stolen - he needed to step down.
The reason - As a Luo - there were many areas that were not comfortable to vote for Kihii.
Raila cried. Kajwang wailed. They said Luos were kenyan like everyone.
Ruto told them it is what it is.
After the meeting - Raila and Luos drove to Ruto house in Karen. In Raila camp they knew Kalenjin were critical - while Luhyas would play ball. Kalonzo obviously was just busy measuring drapes for statehouse.
They besieged Ruto until Ruto changed his mind - and told Raila - okay let get it done. It would be difficult but not impossible.
And as predicted - Kibaki planned the rigging knowing he need just 300-400k votes to top Raila.
Even RV agrees . if Raila supported Kalonzo Kibaki would have lost
Same mistake they are doing now If Raila runs Ruto will win and still ODM will claim it was rigged.
About results coming in it was Medias fault . Wherever they wete getting those results only they know. They were not official results.
Ive showcased right here ODM strongholds had miraculous voter turn out.
-
Beliefs
Beliefs
2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.
It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations
In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.
Most definitely. But someone can't agree with that and continue pushing the narrative that Mt. Kenya is sufficient(let alone necessary) to win, with a straight face. It's one of those things if someone can't agree with, you should not to take any of their other political hot takes, with that disagreement as a basis, seriously.
-
ODM appointed a committee of elders - led by Ntimama/Gumo/others
They commissioned a study - basically some experts to do MOAS - on possible scenarios.
Conclusion - all of ODM luminaries would beat Kibaki.
But only Kalonzo could beat Kibaki in rig proof margins.
A meeting was held in Kenya Club with all ODM luminaries
Ruto was chosen to deliver the bad news.
Ruto told Raila point blank his win was going to be stolen - he needed to step down.
The reason - As a Luo - there were many areas that were not comfortable to vote for Kihii.
Raila cried. Kajwang wailed. They said Luos were kenyan like everyone.
Ruto told them it is what it is.
After the meeting - Raila and Luos drove to Ruto house in Karen. In Raila camp they knew Kalenjin were critical - while Luhyas would play ball. Kalonzo obviously was just busy measuring drapes for statehouse.
They besieged Ruto until Ruto changed his mind - and told Raila - okay let get it done. It would be difficult but not impossible.
And as predicted - Kibaki planned the rigging knowing he need just 300-400k votes to top Raila.
Even RV agrees . if Raila supported Kalonzo Kibaki would have lost
Same mistake they are doing now If Raila runs Ruto will win and still ODM will claim it was rigged.
About results coming in it was Medias fault . Wherever they wete getting those results only they know. They were not official results.
Ive showcased right here ODM strongholds had miraculous voter turn out.
There are studies based on assumptions and then there is reality. That reality is that Raila lost based on real numbers rigging notwithstanding. The numbers were not there once Kalonzo bolted. Your moas would confirm that.
-
I did MOAS with Prof Papaf. He was doing his. Opinion polls the same. It was going to be very close but Raila had a edge.
There are studies based on assumptions and then there is reality. That reality is that Raila lost based on real numbers rigging notwithstanding. The numbers were not there once Kalonzo bolted. Your moas would confirm that.
-
This was one of email I exchanged with Papaf then....
Will give my thoughts later toninght
I will also update accordingly + other e-mail (reliable) that I have.
NB I am inclined to believe that the leak from NSIS is a REAL GENUINE McCOY!
Papa F
From RV Pundit in RCB
-----------------------------------
Good news for arap Mibei.
NSIS
It showed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Raila Odinga enjoys a significant lead in Nyanza province with 86% of the vote, in Rift Valley province with 70%, North Eastern province with 67%, Coast province with 64%, Nairobi 56% and Western province with 54%.
Kibaki has Central province, his home turf, and Eastern province under his belt, leading by 98% and 70% respectively.
MOAS
MK RR KM
Central 94% 4 2 -94 vs 98%-4% difference is okay 3 weeks ago.
Coast 34% 55 11 -against Raila's 64%--i will need to update Raila's number upward
Eastern 45 12 44-Eti Kibaki has 70%-Okay i don't agree with Nyati hse here
Nairobi 46 45 9 -against 56%-thanks to doctored steadman, no way Kibaki is winning Nairobi-MOASS will be updated.
NEP 28 69 3 -against 70% from NSIS-spot on
Nyanza 13 84 3--against 86% from NSIS-spot on
RV 30 65 5 --against 70% for arap Mibei- spot on
Western 23 70 3-against 54% for Raila-NSIS is 3 weeks late, western has had lot of changes since then.
Look like we differ with NSIS strongly in Western & Eastern-but that was 3 weeks ago and MOASS was last updated on 21st September. Otherwise the rest of the country am spot on.
Wakwitu, Do you still think Raila is UNELECTABLE.
-
This was Papaf MOAS on Sept 2007 - three months to election
GRAND TOTALS 13,043,618 3,719,788 3,379,286 916,849
PERCENTAGES 46.40498988 42.1571667 11.43784342
61.45475355
-
Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.
This was one of email I exchanged with Papaf then....
Will give my thoughts later toninght
I will also update accordingly + other e-mail (reliable) that I have.
NB I am inclined to believe that the leak from NSIS is a REAL GENUINE McCOY!
Papa F
From RV Pundit in RCB
-----------------------------------
Good news for arap Mibei.
NSIS
It showed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Raila Odinga enjoys a significant lead in Nyanza province with 86% of the vote, in Rift Valley province with 70%, North Eastern province with 67%, Coast province with 64%, Nairobi 56% and Western province with 54%.
Kibaki has Central province, his home turf, and Eastern province under his belt, leading by 98% and 70% respectively.
MOAS
MK RR KM
Central 94% 4 2 -94 vs 98%-4% difference is okay 3 weeks ago.
Coast 34% 55 11 -against Raila's 64%--i will need to update Raila's number upward
Eastern 45 12 44-Eti Kibaki has 70%-Okay i don't agree with Nyati hse here
Nairobi 46 45 9 -against 56%-thanks to doctored steadman, no way Kibaki is winning Nairobi-MOASS will be updated.
NEP 28 69 3 -against 70% from NSIS-spot on
Nyanza 13 84 3--against 86% from NSIS-spot on
RV 30 65 5 --against 70% for arap Mibei- spot on
Western 23 70 3-against 54% for Raila-NSIS is 3 weeks late, western has had lot of changes since then.
Look like we differ with NSIS strongly in Western & Eastern-but that was 3 weeks ago and MOASS was last updated on 21st September. Otherwise the rest of the country am spot on.
Wakwitu, Do you still think Raila is UNELECTABLE.
-
This was MOAS in September - I think then PNU had not be formed.
MOASS
MK RR KM
Central 94 4 2
Coast 33 56% 11
Eastern 45 12 44
Nairobi 41 50 9
NEP 26 72 3
Nyanza 85 12 3
RV 33 65 5
Western 19 77 2
Raila 4,164,009 49 - Raila scored 4.3m eventually - pretty great
Kibaki 3,406,445 40 - Kibaki padded his votes massively - adding 0.8M
Kalonzo 908,824 11 - Kalonzo scored - 879,903 - this pretty awesome - 9 percent
8,479,278 100
Turn out 60.56627067
We disagreed with Papaf on turnout projection mostly - and few areas. He was wrong as shown by the results.
It appears to be Kibaki actually did rig MASSIVELY.
-
How many MPs did Kibaki get in North Eastern - NEP had less than 100K votes (it doesnt really matter) but please let me know how PNU performed in MP seats. Remember he was just busy rigging the presidential vote.
This was MOAS prediction for Mps - by then PNU had not be formed
ODM ODM-k Narc-K KANU DP Ford-K Ford-P Shirikisho Others
Central 29 0 0 12 3 6 0 0 0 8
Coast 20 10 2 2 1 0 0 0 4 1
Eastern 36 2 16 8 3 4 0 0 0 3
Nairobi 8 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1
NEP 11 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1
Nyanza 31 26 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1
RV 49 32 3 3 4 2 3 0 0 3
Western 26 15 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 5
210 93 21 31 12 13 7 4 4 23
The result ODM got 99 - against MOAS 93 - VERY GOOD
ODM-K got 16 against predicted 21 - Very GOOD.
PNU I think later coalsced into PNU/NARC/
Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.
-
Kibaki got 5 out of 10
Dujis ODM Aden Bare Duale
Fafi KANU Aden Ahamed Sugow
Ijara KANUMohamed Yussuf Haji
Lagdera ODM Farah Maalim
Mandera Central SAFINA Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed
Mandera East ODM Mohamed Hussein Ali
Mandera West ODM Maalim Mahmud Mohamed
Wajir East ODM Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi
Wajir South KANU Abdirahman Ali Hassan
Wajir West KANU Adan Keynan Wehiye
How many MPs did Kibaki get in North Eastern. Remember he was just busy rigging the presidential vote.
This was MOAS prediction for Mps - by then PNU had not be formed
ODM ODM-k Narc-K KANU DP Ford-K Ford-P Shirikisho Others
Central 29 0 0 12 3 6 0 0 0 8
Coast 20 10 2 2 1 0 0 0 4 1
Eastern 36 2 16 8 3 4 0 0 0 3
Nairobi 8 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1
NEP 11 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1
Nyanza 31 26 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1
RV 49 32 3 3 4 2 3 0 0 3
Western 26 15 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 5
210 93 21 31 12 13 7 4 4 23
The result ODM got 99 - against MOAS 93 - VERY GOOD
ODM-K got 16 against predicted 21 - Very GOOD.
PNU I think later coalsced into PNU/NARC/
Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.
-
Attached Papaf and MOASS.
I cannot find the final ones - this was done somewhere in Sept/October.
-
Don't even know where to be gin when people defend blatant rigging in 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.
-
So 50-50 with KANU. I believe Kibaki was keen to rig NEP not because of numbers - but because he needed a province - the old constitution required one to win in majority of the province . Btw when did KANU join PNU?
Kibaki got 5 out of 10
Dujis ODM Aden Bare Duale
Fafi KANU Aden Ahamed Sugow
Ijara KANUMohamed Yussuf Haji
Lagdera ODM Farah Maalim
Mandera Central SAFINA Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed
Mandera East ODM Mohamed Hussein Ali
Mandera West ODM Maalim Mahmud Mohamed
Wajir East ODM Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi
Wajir South KANU Abdirahman Ali Hassan
Wajir West KANU Adan Keynan Wehiye
-
2013 and 2017 - the only rigging I have seen was done in NEP - definitely Mandera in both cases. 2013 had lot more controls - biometrics were introduced - provisional reporting - technology.
What sell rigging in NEP was that unlike other areas where Biometric identification was done - at 98 percent - in NEP it was down to 92 - so it could imply some rigging or maybe tough conditions there? But it was in some areas - especially north most NEP.
Northern Kenya is where rigging can easily happen.
Don't even know where to be gin when people defend blatant rigging in 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.
-
RV I dont recall the figures but back in Mashada I recall having a discussion with Late OO about the significance of North Eastern . They were as big as Meru and Kisii politically wise.
The Previous constituion one had to win small majority and at least 25% of the votes in 5 out of 8 provinces. A very small threshold.
KANU joined PNU when Uhuru decided to support Kibaki around September 2007 If I recall well.
And I believe you know North Eastern with clan politics and their support of the rulling Government. One reason Uhuru didnt force them to join Jubilee and actually agreed with their idea of PDP (current UDA) in 2017 elections.
So 50-50 with KANU. I believe Kibaki was keen to rig NEP not because of numbers - but because he needed a province - the old constitution required one to win in majority of the province . Btw when did KANU join PNU?
Kibaki got 5 out of 10
Dujis ODM Aden Bare Duale
Fafi KANU Aden Ahamed Sugow
Ijara KANUMohamed Yussuf Haji
Lagdera ODM Farah Maalim
Mandera Central SAFINA Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed
Mandera East ODM Mohamed Hussein Ali
Mandera West ODM Maalim Mahmud Mohamed
Wajir East ODM Mohamed Ibrahim Elmi
Wajir South KANU Abdirahman Ali Hassan
Wajir West KANU Adan Keynan Wehiye
-
We never did comparison with MOAS -
This was ECK
Candidate Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka
TOTAL 46.4 44.1 8.9
Nairobi 41.5 53.3 5.1
Nyanza 14.6 85 0.3
Western 30 69.2 0.3
R. Valley 28.7 70.3 1
Central 97.4 1.9 0.7
Eastern 54.7 6.4 38.8
Coast 34.4 58.9 6.7
N. Eastern 47.9 49.6 2.4
This was MOAS
MK RR KM
Central 94 4 2
Coast 33 56% 11
Eastern 45 12 44
Nairobi 41 50 9
NEP 26 72 3
Nyanza 85 12 3
RV 33 65 5
Western 19 77 2
Conclusion - MOAS was right (within margin of error) - except few areas
1) Western - Moas scored 20 instead of 30. then I really did not understand western - now I know it. MOAS is getting more precise as I have gained a lot more knowledge.
2) Eastern - Kibaki beat Kalonzo - getting 10 percent more than I predicted. This I suspect is pure rigging.
3) NEP - 50-50 - I had Raila at 70 - it no biggie - they had very few votes. Another suspected rigging. It was critical for Kibaki because old constitution required get 25 percent in more than half the provinces.
So where did the rigging happen
1) Central Kenya - clue is TURN OUT figures.
2) Eastern Kenya - Kibaki even beat Kalonzo there - while Kambas are majority.
-
NEP total registered votes were like 120k. It had no significance except for Kibaki who was very unpopular to get 25 percent in five province.
Okay sept - yes because in my MOAS i dont have PNU -
I wish I can get my final MOAS done in december...this one was done in september.
Then I would be able to tell you exactly where Kibaki rigged - definitely he rigged his stronghold of GEMA.
RV I dont recall the figures but back in Mashada I recall having a discussion with Late OO about the significance of North Eastern . They were as big as Meru and Kisii politically wise.
The Previous constituion one had to win small majority and at least 25% of the votes in 5 out of 8 provinces. A very small threshold.
KANU joined PNU when Uhuru decided to support Kibaki around September 2007 If I recall well.
And I believe you know North Eastern with clan politics and their support of the rulling Government. One reason Uhuru didnt force them to join Jubilee and actually agreed with their idea of PDP (current UDA) in 2017 elections.
-
How many MPs did Kibaki get in North Eastern - NEP had less than 100K votes (it doesnt really matter) but please let me know how PNU performed in MP seats. Remember he was just busy rigging the presidential vote.
This was MOAS prediction for Mps - by then PNU had not be formed
ODM ODM-k Narc-K KANU DP Ford-K Ford-P Shirikisho Others
Central 29 0 0 12 3 6 0 0 0 8
Coast 20 10 2 2 1 0 0 0 4 1
Eastern 36 2 16 8 3 4 0 0 0 3
Nairobi 8 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1
NEP 11 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1
Nyanza 31 26 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1
RV 49 32 3 3 4 2 3 0 0 3
Western 26 15 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 5
210 93 21 31 12 13 7 4 4 23
The result ODM got 99 - against MOAS 93 - VERY GOOD
ODM-K got 16 against predicted 21 - Very GOOD.
PNU I think later coalsced into PNU/NARC/
Kibaki won in North Eastern . It was crystal clear that Kibaki would win in North Eastern.
ODM rigged heavily in their stronghold spefically Nyanza.
Do you have the registered voters by province then compare with the results. As I pointed out earlier central alone had almost the combined registered voters of RV plus Luo Nyanza. Remember the same RV had Nakuru and Trans Nzoia , pokot and Turkana which didn't vote for ODM or where they did the numbers weren't huge. Kirwa for example lost cherangany due to a split among the same supporters. The same scenario happened in many places thus the majority mps for ODM.
-
MOAS that I have didnt have final registered. But there were projection of increase voters - I am not sure where I got the data - but Central for example I projected 23 percent increase in registered votes from 2005 referendum. Those days getting data from ECK was not easy.
Which cheranganyi - when Kalenjin were totally against Kibaki - except maybe some pokots.
Kibaki rigged pure and simple. Some exit poll had him 6 percent below Raila.
Everyone saw Kibaki brazen rigging - people protested - and war like no other broke out.
It was BRAZEN ON YOUR FACE rigging. RO switched their phones off - and Kivuitu could not reach them - what do you think they were doing
The defence that ODM also rigged is not true...due to turnout.
I had studied turnout from 92, 97, 2002 and 2005 - some places in Luo Nyanza had in all those election turned out at 96 percent every election - for example Nyatike.
Do you have the registered voters by province then compare with the results. As I pointed out earlier central alone had almost the combined registered voters of RV plus Luo Nyanza. Remember the same RV had Nakuru and Trans Nzoia , pokot and Turkana which didn't vote for ODM or where they did the numbers weren't huge. Kirwa for example lost cherangany due to a split among the same supporters. The same scenario happened in many places thus the majority mps for ODM.
-
Pure lie. So they do 96 percent from 90s to 2007 and when technology is introduced in the electral process in 2013 and 2017 they go to 60s and 70 percent.
RV saa zingine learn kukubali ukweli. One thing with facts is that they are stubborn.
I had studied turnout from 92, 97, 2002 and 2005 - some places in Luo Nyanza had in all those election turned out at 96 percent every election - for example Nyatike.
-
IEBC moved heavens to frustrate their petition which painted them as horribly biased. It was pointless going back with then without minimum reforms.
Why didnt he not participate in a re-run.
Beliefs
Beliefs
2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.
It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations
In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.
2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.
In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.
If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.
So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?
This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.
You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.
You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?
Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.
If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers. If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence
-
You're a cartoon. No one is swayed by facts like me.
I have studied these kind of data for many years.
Pre 2007 new constitution many areas use to experience very low turnout.
But Luo Nyanza, Kalenjin land always led - followed by Kikuyus - everyone else really never cared - western/gusii - could even pull 40 percent turnout...which was better than NEP that did 20 percent.
If Luo Nyanza rigged turnout in 2007 - then they had been rigging every other election. Homabay and Luo Migori I believe normally pulled 80-90 percent in 90s/2007s.
After PEV of 2007 - I think many kenyans started to realize election was serious business.
I have now seen very high turnout.
Part of centrals even in 2013/2017 - pulled 95 percent - with biometrics and all that.
Before 2007 - national turnout rarely got 60 percent - some election it was even 55 or 52 percent.
2013 was shocking 85 percent national turnout. I think it went down in 2017 to 75 percent.
This year I see it around there or even dropping - I dont see the excitement in many areas.
Pure lie. So they do 96 percent from 90s to 2007 and when technology is introduced in the electral process in 2013 and 2017 they go to 60s and 70 percent.
RV saa zingine learn kukubali ukweli. One thing with facts is that they are stubborn.
-
What reforms have been done now? Chebukati is still there. Chiloba is back at CA. Deputy CO is still there? There is no single election related law or reform at IEBC since then.
Raila knew he lost - not by small margin - by whooping 2 million votes.
Well let see this time round -he has deep state and system - 2013 he was chief procuremnt officer for IEBC - doing gov to gov deal that brought french/canadian companies - that hosted 2013/2017 servers/tech- and OSwago from Bondo was CEO - he still lost.
When people LOSE by 2 MILLION VOTES: They need to concede defeat.
That is an overwhelming defeat.
NASA had what - 100 MPs?
IEBC moved heavens to frustrate their petition which painted them as horribly biased. It was pointless going back with then without minimum reforms.
-
Babu got illusion of what was stolen from him in the handshake.
Looter, who was part of this grand theft is peeing in his pants with worry that the boot is on the other hoof
What reforms have been done now? Chebukati is still there. Chiloba is back at CA. Deputy CO is still there? There is no single election related law or reform at IEBC since then.
Raila knew he lost - not by small margin - by whooping 2 million votes.
Well let see this time round -he has deep state and system - 2013 he was chief procuremnt officer for IEBC and OSwago from Bondo was CEO - he still lost.
IEBC moved heavens to frustrate their petition which painted them as horribly biased. It was pointless going back with then without minimum reforms.
-
MOAS that I have didnt have final registered. But there were projection of increase voters - I am not sure where I got the data - but Central for example I projected 23 percent increase in registered votes from 2005 referendum. Those days getting data from ECK was not easy.
Which cheranganyi - when Kalenjin were totally against Kibaki - except maybe some pokots.
Kibaki rigged pure and simple. Some exit poll had him 6 percent below Raila.
Everyone saw Kibaki brazen rigging - people protested - and war like no other broke out.
It was BRAZEN ON YOUR FACE rigging. RO switched their phones off - and Kivuitu could not reach them - what do you think they were doing
The defence that ODM also rigged is not true...due to turnout.
I had studied turnout from 92, 97, 2002 and 2005 - some places in Luo Nyanza had in all those election turned out at 96 percent every election - for example Nyatike.
Do you have the registered voters by province then compare with the results. As I pointed out earlier central alone had almost the combined registered voters of RV plus Luo Nyanza. Remember the same RV had Nakuru and Trans Nzoia , pokot and Turkana which didn't vote for ODM or where they did the numbers weren't huge. Kirwa for example lost cherangany due to a split among the same supporters. The same scenario happened in many places thus the majority mps for ODM.
Exit polls in Kenya are laughable so please don't go there. Opinion polls depend upon who pays or political affiliation of the owners. Reality is registered numbers compared to actual elections.
-
Raila apart from motorcade and two appointment to moribund bodies has got nothing. Uhuru is minting billions.
Ruto has been in the system since Moi era. He knows everything.
Stealing from him will be harder than hard. It has to be done 2007 - Kibaki style - kifua style - then Kenya burns again.
Babu got illusion of what was stolen from him in the handshake.
Looter, who was part of this grand theft is peeing in his pants with worry that the boot is on the other hoof
-
What do you mean registered votes. The was nothing outstanding in central figures from 2005 to 2007
1) Central had 23 percent increase to I think 2million votes
2) Coast had 18 percent increase to 1.1m votes.
3) Nyanza had 2m
5) Eastern about 2m
6) RV about 3.2m
7) Western about 1.5m
8) Nairobi about 1.2m
9) NEP was less than 0.2m
Exit polls in Kenya are laughable so please don't go there. Opinion polls depend upon who pays or political affiliation of the owners. Reality is registered numbers compared to actual elections.
-
I found some publication that gives some insight on the 07 election. I will post a link later.
-
Rigged with abandon 2007 - 2022.
-
This is better. I wish I can get final MOAS.
I believe massive rigging happened in Central+Meru (Mt kenya counties) - the rigging was two fold - inflate Kibaki numbers - deflate Raila. For instance in MOAS for Central I had kibaki getting 94 percent (because of Kiambu and such areas) - he ended up with 98 percent...if you check Uhuru's 2013 figures...it more 94 (Kiambu he got 90 percent)...elsewhere he was doing 96.
http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/wgape/papers/18_Long.pdf
Other journalistic and qualitative investigations have relayed various aspects to how the
counting of ballots took place and why suspicions arose with respect to rigging. Throup (2008)
argues that early announcements from ODM strongholds contributed to the expectation that
ODM was headed for victory over PNU, even though PNU strongholds were not announced until
later. But this of course begs the question of why the ECK held results from PNU strongholds
(and my results show this may be consistent with rigging). Other accounts focus precisely on
those constituencies that were announced late by the ECK. Bengali (2008) reports that observers
inside of the ECK‘s headquarters claim that massive systematic fraud happened inside the
commission, and that there was false aggregation and subtraction of votes during the certification
process. The Standard on Sunday (2008) also recounts the activities of various commissioners
who added votes to Kibaki‘s total in his home region of Central Province after initial results
suggested a likely victory for Odinga
I found some publication that gives some insight on the 07 election. I will post a link later.
-
If you check exit poll - it very close to rough MOAS (still looking for final december one). You can see massive rigging in NEP.
MOASS
MK RR KM
Central 94 4 2
Coast 33 56% 11
Eastern 45 12 44
Nairobi 41 50 9
NEP 26 72 3
Nyanza 85 12 3
RV 33 65 5
Western 19 77 2
Raila 4,164,009 49
Kibaki 3,406,445 40
Kalonzo 908,824 11
8,479,278 100
In seven out of eight provinces, the ECK awards more votes to Kibaki than the exit poll. The
differences are not always subtle—while the exit poll gives Odinga a victory in Northeastern
province of 76% to Kibaki‘s 17%, the ECK declares Kibaki the winner there with 50.3% against
Odinga‘s 47.2%. Even factoring in sampling error from the poll, this difference is astounding.
This accords with Kivuitu‘s declaration during the count that many constituency returning
officers were hard to reach in Northeaster
-
It was just brazen rigging...
While protests began to rage even before ECK Chairman Kivuitu announced the final
result, the European Union‘s observer mission announced that they had seen ECK officials
artificially altering results from Molo and Kieni constituencies, which prevented them from
certifying the election as free and fair. At a January 1, 2008 press conference (two days after
Kibaki was sworn in), the head of mission Alexander Lamsdorff reported on the various
problems in the count that the EU had observed and suggested a forensic audit of returns. On the
EU‘s advice, European powers refrained from congratulating Kibaki and instead were poised for
an electoral stalemate between Kibaki and Odinga and a possible recount. If the EU had not
raised these issues and objections, it is doubtful that the issue of rigging would have ever been
raised or challenged by anyone in the international community
-
Kibaki rigged almost all PNU areas.
-
The fact that Babu sold himself short is no argument against rigging. He just succumbed to UhuRuto's pennies and his own vanity
Raila apart from motorcade and two appointment to moribund bodies has got nothing. Uhuru is minting billions.
Ruto has been in the system since Moi era. He knows everything.
Stealing from him will be harder than hard. It has to be done 2007 - Kibaki style - kifua style - then Kenya burns again.
Babu got illusion of what was stolen from him in the handshake.
Looter, who was part of this grand theft is peeing in his pants with worry that the boot is on the other hoof
-
There is no evidence Babu has ever presented against being rigged that passed the muster in 2013 and 2017. What I have seen are academic work done that flag anomalies in few areas of NEP.
2013 - was okayed by all observers, media, supreme court - as being free and fair. Not perfect. Possibly UhuRuto rig NEP votes to cross 50 percent.
2017 - supreme court found no evidence of rigging - just a messed up transmission system. They hanged IEBC for procedural mess - but nobody has presented evidence showing Uhuru rigged in this area or that area.
Moi used to rig but did a clean job. Kibaki was basically a coup - he kidnapped ROS - appointed commissioners to alter results - everyone saw it - observers, medias, kenyans - and it was brazen and outrageous. It lead to PEV.
Kibaki is luckly because US supported him after Raila crossed the redline by entering MOU with hardline muslim accused of terror and promised to not enact anti-terror law.
If Raila had not done that - Kibaki would have been forced to the wall by US and EU jointly - and Kenyans - and of course Raila is a coward - who gave up his stolen victory.
If 2007 was to be pulled in 2022 - you can bet Ruto will fight to the bitter end - and that would be huge civil war.
The fact that Babu sold himself short is no argument against rigging. He just succumbed to UhuRuto's pennies and his own vanity
-
2013 petition was shot down on technicalities with evidence being time barred but I generally don't believe Babu was rigged.
2017 monkey business was all it took to nulify. A deliberately broken system, taking out Msando...you can't be this obtuse
There is no evidence Babu has ever presented against being rigged that passed the muster in 2013 and 2017. What I have seen are academic work done that flag anomalies in few areas of NEP.
2013 - was okayed by all observers, media, supreme court - as being free and fair. Not perfect. Possibly UhuRuto rig NEP votes to cross 50 percent.
2017 - supreme court found no evidence of rigging - just a messed up transmission system. They hanged IEBC for procedural mess - but nobody has presented evidence showing Uhuru rigged in this area or that area.
Moi used to rig but did a clean job. Kibaki was basically a coup - he kidnapped ROS - appointed commissioners to alter results - everyone saw it - observers, medias, kenyans - and it was brazen and outrageous. It lead to PEV.
Kibaki is luckly because US supported him after Raila crossed the redline by entering MOU with hardline muslim accused of terror and promised to not enact anti-terror law.
If Raila had not done that - Kibaki would have been forced to the wall by US and EU jointly - and Kenyans - and of course Raila is a coward - who gave up his stolen victory.
If 2007 was to be pulled in 2022 - you can bet Ruto will fight to the bitter end - and that would be huge civil war.
The fact that Babu sold himself short is no argument against rigging. He just succumbed to UhuRuto's pennies and his own vanity
-
Kibaki rigged almost all PNU areas.
[/quote
Now do the same for ODM then we compare. If I recall correctly some places in ODM areas returned more than 100%. Remember most PNU party agents were chased away in opposition areas so no one was present. There was so much animosity towards government from all corners including the media then. Raila had gone around preaching kabila adui and 41 vs 1 to a point that the only outcome acceptable was his win. As your moas points out looking at it side by side with the election results PNU regardless of rigging had huge support starting with its own strongholds of central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru with its huge kikuyu diaspora. That fact is always overlooked by people who assume RV is kamatusa. It is the same myth about jubilee government being 2 tribes. Most folks believe that bull some don't understand that kalenjin alone is several sub tribes. The truth about 2007 is somewhere between massive rigging by both parties but with Kibaki winning with a small margin. Polls were all over. In that piece three polls showed he was ahead. Am sure ODM had their polls too. Exit polling in a country where people can't show you directions without asking for something is laughable at best. Lying plus exaggeration in Kenya is the norm.
-
We had done this before . Raila rigged akin to a thief shouting shika Mwizi yule pale and he is the real thief.
Compare the turnouts between different regions in below link and you will see where the elections were rigged.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=10953.0
Tell me where on earth the below voter turn out can happen. And it happened in one region - This was systemic . Not related to any Ruto and violence in Rift Valley.
Mt Kenya hold Raila accountable of 2007 P.E.V. nothing to do with Ruto .Dont turn this thread to a violence thread which is your habit once your myths are debunked .
Karachuonyo-Turnout 95.37 %
Ndhiwa -Turnout 93.74 %
Nyatike -Turnout 94.83 %
Mbita -Turnout 95.57 %
Gwassi -Turnout 92.68 %
-
There is no evidence Babu has ever presented against being rigged that passed the muster in 2013 and 2017. What I have seen are academic work done that flag anomalies in few areas of NEP.
2013 - was okayed by all observers, media, supreme court - as being free and fair. Not perfect. Possibly UhuRuto rig NEP votes to cross 50 percent.
2017 - supreme court found no evidence of rigging - just a messed up transmission system. They hanged IEBC for procedural mess - but nobody has presented evidence showing Uhuru rigged in this area or that area.
Moi used to rig but did a clean job. Kibaki was basically a coup - he kidnapped ROS - appointed commissioners to alter results - everyone saw it - observers, medias, kenyans - and it was brazen and outrageous. It lead to PEV.
Kibaki is luckly because US supported him after Raila crossed the redline by entering MOU with hardline muslim accused of terror and promised to not enact anti-terror law.
If Raila had not done that - Kibaki would have been forced to the wall by US and EU jointly - and Kenyans - and of course Raila is a coward - who gave up his stolen victory.
If 2007 was to be pulled in 2022 - you can bet Ruto will fight to the bitter end - and that would be huge civil war.
The fact that Babu sold himself short is no argument against rigging. He just succumbed to UhuRuto's pennies and his own vanity
The US under Bush didnt have time for Raila. 2007 was a way for the European companies that had lost contracts under Kibaki led by the UK to exert revenge. Remember Murungaro giving police Toyota land cruisers taking away land rovers and the next thing the UK barred him from passing through London essentially making it difficult for him to travel. Rumour had it that Landrover gave ODM about 166 million during the elections campaign.Bush even congratulated Kibaki at first then pulled it back. ODM only got traction with the US because of Dr Sally Kosgei who knew then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from Stanford. Without Rv support Raila is/was an empty shell.
-
There is no evidence Babu has ever presented against being rigged that passed the muster in 2013 and 2017. What I have seen are academic work done that flag anomalies in few areas of NEP.
2013 - was okayed by all observers, media, supreme court - as being free and fair. Not perfect. Possibly UhuRuto rig NEP votes to cross 50 percent.
2017 - supreme court found no evidence of rigging - just a messed up transmission system. They hanged IEBC for procedural mess - but nobody has presented evidence showing Uhuru rigged in this area or that area.
Moi used to rig but did a clean job. Kibaki was basically a coup - he kidnapped ROS - appointed commissioners to alter results - everyone saw it - observers, medias, kenyans - and it was brazen and outrageous. It lead to PEV.
Kibaki is luckly because US supported him after Raila crossed the redline by entering MOU with hardline muslim accused of terror and promised to not enact anti-terror law.
If Raila had not done that - Kibaki would have been forced to the wall by US and EU jointly - and Kenyans - and of course Raila is a coward - who gave up his stolen victory.
If 2007 was to be pulled in 2022 - you can bet Ruto will fight to the bitter end - and that would be huge civil war.
The fact that Babu sold himself short is no argument against rigging. He just succumbed to UhuRuto's pennies and his own vanity
I haven't see the evidence that it was messed up. Can you share a link? It worked just fine in the rerun.
-
Where have you been all this time to start spreading rumours?
The US government did congratualte Kibaki on his win in 2007 and just to make a retreat after it noticed the blunder it had made.
If the IEBC chairman could not say who won the presidential election then, who are you to declare Kibaki won?
Btw, Chris Murungaru was broke by the time in 2002 when Kibaki won the election. By 2004 the man was a multi-millionaire. If he was barred from traveling to the UK then it was because of his known corrupt dealings. Even Kibaki had to fire the greedy man.
The US under Bush didnt have time for Raila. 2007 was a way for the European companies that had lost contracts under Kibaki led by the UK to exert revenge. Remember Murungaro giving police Toyota land cruisers taking away land rovers and the next thing the UK barred him from passing through London essentially making it difficult for him to travel. Rumour had it that Landrover gave ODM about 166 million during the elections campaign.Bush even congratulated Kibaki at first then pulled it back. ODM only got traction with the US because of Dr Sally Kosgei who knew then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from Stanford. Without Rv support Raila is/was an empty shell.
-
IEBC discountinue the provisional results because it was nice to have - and yet 5 judges hanged them. Ojwang and PNU judge Njoki dissenting opinion is all you need to read.
Post 2017 supreme court - IEBC have basically abandoned electronic transmission publicly - so that is sad thing. NASA and Judges took offence over provisional results mistakes...instead of improving it...IEBC has basically abandoned it.
Now we really on Itumbi and URA provisional tallying to know what is going on.
I haven't see the evidence that it was messed up. Can you share a link? It worked just fine in the rerun.
-
The rigging was just embarrasing. EU observers saw rigging live live. It was more a coup than rigging. The crudest form of rigging conducted on live TV. That is why Kenya burnt and was rescued - from descending to civil war - when Kibaki agreed to share power.
Anyway that rigging gave us COk2010 that is even more robust - and has given us very serious election reforms - it very hard to rig now - except if someone was to kidnap Chebukati and force him to hand a loser the winner certificate - and then proceed to force all supreme court judges to accept it.
The US under Bush didnt have time for Raila. 2007 was a way for the European companies that had lost contracts under Kibaki led by the UK to exert revenge. Remember Murungaro giving police Toyota land cruisers taking away land rovers and the next thing the UK barred him from passing through London essentially making it difficult for him to travel. Rumour had it that Landrover gave ODM about 166 million during the elections campaign.Bush even congratulated Kibaki at first then pulled it back. ODM only got traction with the US because of Dr Sally Kosgei who knew then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from Stanford. Without Rv support Raila is/was an empty shell.
-
In presidential elections it is a requirement. In repeat elections it was there. In 2022 Presidential elections it will be there.
IEBC discountinue the provisional results because it was nice to have - and yet 5 judges hanged them. Ojwang and PNU judge Njoki dissenting opinion is all you need to read.
Post 2017 supreme court - IEBC have basically abandoned electronic transmission publicly - so that is sad thing. NASA and Judges took offence over provisional results mistakes...instead of improving it...IEBC has basically abandoned it.
Now we really on Itumbi and URA provisional tallying to know what is going on.
I haven't see the evidence that it was messed up. Can you share a link? It worked just fine in the rerun.
-
Really? I think they abandoned it; They now only display final electronic results on the tallying centers - not to online servers.
The commission is seeking to amend section 44 of the Act to provide for a complementary mechanism for the transmission of presidential results -- a key area that was the subject of heated debate during the 2017 presidential election petition filed by ODM leader Raila Odinga, and which led to the nullification of the results announced by Mr Chebukati.The amendment gives the commission power to put in place alternative mechanisms of transmitting presidential results in parts of the country that have poor internet connectivity.
In presidential elections it is a requirement. In repeat elections it was there. In 2022 Presidential elections it will be there.
-
The rigging was just embarrasing. EU observers saw rigging live live. It was more a coup than rigging. The crudest form of rigging conducted on live TV. That is why Kenya burnt and was rescued - from descending to civil war - when Kibaki agreed to share power.
Anyway that rigging gave us COk2010 that is even more robust - and has given us very serious election reforms - it very hard to rig now - except if someone was to kidnap Chebukati and force him to hand a loser the winner certificate - and then proceed to force all supreme court judges to accept it.
The US under Bush didnt have time for Raila. 2007 was a way for the European companies that had lost contracts under Kibaki led by the UK to exert revenge. Remember Murungaro giving police Toyota land cruisers taking away land rovers and the next thing the UK barred him from passing through London essentially making it difficult for him to travel. Rumour had it that Landrover gave ODM about 166 million during the elections campaign.Bush even congratulated Kibaki at first then pulled it back. ODM only got traction with the US because of Dr Sally Kosgei who knew then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from Stanford. Without Rv support Raila is/was an empty shell.
Based on your moas and what I saw as final turnout from what Noway posted it is clear ODM rigging was worse. Unfortunately that Raila doctrine of claiming he won from 1997 was attempted again in 2013 and 2017. In 2022 he will be back again with the same claim. Watch this space. As I pointed out earlier in Kenya lies and exaggerations are the order of the day. I attended Obamas inauguration in 2009 and thought we must have been several million people at the national mall based on where we were well beyond the Washington monument. From the capital steps it quite a distance. Later that evening I was surprised to learn that the estimates put the figures under 1.5 million people. Then you have all this crap in Kenya about a million man matches and I don't know how many millions at Uhuru Park rallies. That is what causes chaos all the time. Politicians create a perception of overwhelming numbers in the cities while the majority voters are mostly rural folks in most third world countries.
-
Fallacious logic. They rigged - so we rigged. MOASS expected that kind turnout of Luo Nyanza based on 2005/2002/1997/1992 previous turnout.
Bottom-line. ODM might have rigged - but Kibaki Most Definitely Rigged in the CRUDEST way that sparks violent riot that uprooted 600k people from their homes or business - and let to deaths.
If rigging will happen in the future - let's hope we do not get equivalent to a violent coup.
Based on your moas and what I saw as final turnout from what Noway posted it is clear ODM rigging was worse. Unfortunately that Raila doctrine of claiming he won from 1997 was attempted again in 2013 and 2017. In 2022 he will be back again with the same claim. Watch this space. As I pointed out earlier in Kenya lies and exaggerations are the order of the day. I attended Obamas inauguration in 2009 and thought we must have been several million people at the national mall based on where we were well beyond the Washington monument. From the capital steps it quite a distance. Later that evening I was surprised to learn that the estimates put the figures under 1.5 million people. Then you have all this crap in Kenya about a million man matches and I don't know how many millions at Uhuru Park rallies. That is what causes chaos all the time. Politicians create a perception of overwhelming numbers in the cities while the majority voters are mostly rural folks in most third world countries.
-
http://kenyalaw.org/kenyalawblog/electoral-process-in-kenya/
The Elections Act provided that before determining and declaring the final results of an election the Commission may announce the provisional results.[134] The Elections Act also provided that the Commission shall announce the provisional and final results in the order in which the tallying of the results is completed.[135]
Really? I think they abandoned it; They now only display final electronic results on the tallying centers - not to online servers.
The commission is seeking to amend section 44 of the Act to provide for a complementary mechanism for the transmission of presidential results -- a key area that was the subject of heated debate during the 2017 presidential election petition filed by ODM leader Raila Odinga, and which led to the nullification of the results announced by Mr Chebukati.The amendment gives the commission power to put in place alternative mechanisms of transmitting presidential results in parts of the country that have poor internet connectivity.
In presidential elections it is a requirement. In repeat elections it was there. In 2022 Presidential elections it will be there.
-
Where have you been all this time to start spreading rumours?
The US government did congratualte Kibaki on his win in 2007 and just to make a retreat after it noticed the blunder it had made.
If the IEBC chairman could not say who won the presidential election then, who are you to declare Kibaki won?
Btw, Chris Murungaru was broke by the time in 2002 when Kibaki won the election. By 2004 the man was a multi-millionaire. If he was barred from traveling to the UK then it was because of his known corrupt dealings. Even Kibaki had to fire the greedy man.
The US under Bush didnt have time for Raila. 2007 was a way for the European companies that had lost contracts under Kibaki led by the UK to exert revenge. Remember Murungaro giving police Toyota land cruisers taking away land rovers and the next thing the UK barred him from passing through London essentially making it difficult for him to travel. Rumour had it that Landrover gave ODM about 166 million during the elections campaign.Bush even congratulated Kibaki at first then pulled it back. ODM only got traction with the US because of Dr Sally Kosgei who knew then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice from Stanford. Without Rv support Raila is/was an empty shell.
I have been here working and every once in a while call out the bull. For example you claim Kivuitu said he didnt know who won when that is a lie. He was asked if Kibaki had won fairly and he said he didnt know. Now look at the numbers for yourself and show us the path for a Raila win. I posted the spreadsheed earlier for each constituency showing registered voters, cast/valid votes and what Raila and Kibaki got in each. Simple math plus logic will tell you Raila had no path to victory. His purpoted wins outside his strongholds was neutralized by Upper Eastern. Overall he came out with an advantage at the coast, western and Rift valley but the same was cancelled out by Upper Eastern, Kisii constituencies, North Eastern and about 80k votes in Ukambani(Eastern) where he got almost nothing to Kalaonzos 700k plus and Kibakis 80k. In Luo Nyanza his 1m win was cancelled out by Central 1.2 million for Kibaki. Feel free to ask for the spreadsheets and look at them for yourself. Numbers speak for themselves.