Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nowayhaha on October 01, 2021, 01:49:12 PM
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_coffee_production
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I really cant tell what happened in 1990s.
Coffee was liberalized in both Kenya and Uganda around the same time...btw 1989-1991
Coffee production took off in Uganda...now Africa largest producer.
Coffee production went down in Kenya.
Two explanations
1) Kenya coffee production had either been sustained by gov subsidies - and could not compete.
2) Kenya coffee farmers abandoned coffee for horticulture - that took off in kenya.
3) Liberalization model with cooperatives and coffee board of kenya - got into management crisis - that killed coffee production
It appears only three sectors took off with liberalization of the 90s
1) Horticulture - mainly large farms with few smallholders.
2) Tea - companies not cooperative was chosen
3) EPZ - AGOA - mostly stitching of imported fabrics for US market.
Everything else went down - coffee, cotton, rice,maize, name it - SAP had killed the previously protected import substitution sectors.
Kibaki managed to recover dairy sector - with likes of Brookside doing a great or bad job to consolidate the sector - but definitely dairy sector in kenya is excellent.
Recently some nuts - except cashew nuts - are also doing great.
The future of coffee in kenya is to increase acreage in new places especially the east highlands of rift valley (rift valley, gusii and western kenya) - to replace hopeless maize and sugar
Farmers in mt kenya will not go back to coffee anytime soon. They already have nightmares of coffee - have cut most of it for miraa, muguga, nuts, dairy and horticulture.
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https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/articles/kenyas-farmers-demand-coffee-break
In the heyday of Kenyan coffee in the late 1980s, the country’s farmers produced almost 120,000 tonnes of the cash crop each year. A decade later, despite the government’s efforts to encourage production, output had dropped by more than 50 percent.
There were several reasons behind this precipitous drop. During the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, Kenyan coffee benefited from the International Coffee Agreements (ICAs) that were in place, which helped keep prices stable, in part by keeping supply steady through a system of export quotas. According to experts, the ICAs was in some ways beneficial to developing countries, giving them the ability to organize collectively and shielding their vulnerable smallholders from market volatility; though some smaller producers were dissatisfied with their smaller market shares. The end of the 1983 ICA in 1989 suspended the export quota system, enabling countries like Brazil and Vietnam to produce more coffee, forcing global prices down, and making it more difficult for Kenyan coffee to compete.
Although the 1990s ushered in a period of productivity for the industry, the effects of disease and pests, along with the steady decline in coffee prices between 1998 and 2002, caused both production and yields to plummet in the early 2000s. In 2009, following a prolonged drought, output fell to its lowest since 1961—34,000 tonnes—almost a quarter of peak production levels. In the following years, numerous initiatives designed to increase cultivated area and yields helped buoy production, and output rose by about 14 percent annually between 2009 and 201
(http://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/f_jpg,w_1500/v1456498882/hyo1tq92zmffv3c6gk25.jpg)
I really cant tell what happened in 1990s.
Coffee was liberalized in both Kenya and Uganda around the same time...btw 1989-1991
Coffee production took off in Uganda...now Africa largest producer.
Coffee production went down in Kenya.
Two explanations
1) Kenya coffee production had either been sustained by gov subsidies - and could not compete.
2) Kenya coffee farmers abandoned coffee for horticulture - that took off in kenya.
3) Liberalization model with cooperatives and coffee board of kenya - got into management crisis - that killed coffee production
It appears only three sectors took off with liberalization of the 90s
1) Horticulture - mainly large farms with few smallholders.
2) Tea - companies not cooperative was chosen
3) EPZ - AGOA - mostly stitching of imported fabrics for US market.
Everything else went down - coffee, cotton, rice,maize, name it - SAP had killed the previously protected import substitution sectors.
Kibaki managed to recover dairy sector - with likes of Brookside doing a great or bad job to consolidate the sector - but definitely dairy sector in kenya is excellent.
Recently some nuts - except cashew nuts - are also doing great.
The future of coffee in kenya is to increase acreage in new places especially the east highlands of rift valley (rift valley, gusii and western kenya) - to replace hopeless maize and sugar
Farmers in mt kenya will not go back to coffee anytime soon. They already have nightmares of coffee - have cut most of it for miraa, muguga, nuts, dairy and horticulture.
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Uganda exports more than 3 times the quantity Kenya exports. However Uganda only earns double what Kenya earns from coffee export. This is because kenya produces high quality coffee. The coffee industry in kenya has shifted from mass market production to high quality expensive coffee. As a result small estate(5acres to 20acreas) are thriving. For the smaller holders, the coffee act need to be repealed. This would dismantle the cooperative societies monopoly, enabling farm gate sale of coffee for small holders. Basically farmers need to be paid based on the quality of coffee , this is how coffee is priced.
The future of coffee industry in kenya is very bright. Commodity companies like louis drefus, cargill are setting up base in kenya specifically to buy high quality coffee. They're locking up farmers to future contracts. What's important is to increase productivity for most farmers from a paltry 5kg per tree to 15kg, this would also mean higher quality.
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Dropping coffee prices made it stupid.
I doubt acreage under coffee has increased since the 70s. Almoat all land around coffee growing areas has been fragmented.
I'd not say shifting to other things is loss
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You guys still havent answered why Uganda production shot as kenya production went south?
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You guys still havent answered why Uganda production shot as kenya production went south?
Cost of producing Arabica coffee is higher which is what Kenya produces vs Robusta which is what Uganda produces. Ugandans can produce robusta coffee cheaply and make decent returns. Uganda coffee production exploded as a result while Kenya production contracted after the cooperative societies management collapsed. Most of small coffee holders have neglected their coffee though most of them haven't uprooted the trees. Since the trees are there, all that's needed is to improve husbandry( like before) and production would be back up. The good thing is that with Brazil production being greatly diminished by drought and frost, next year prices are going to be very good. Something similar to the 70s coffee boom, this will entice farmers to go back to coffee farming.
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I think cooperative mismanagement are to blame. If you visit Uganda - everywhere you'll see coffee beans being dried.
Coffee production in 1991 - in uganda was barely 5,000 tons.
Now as we speak - I think it's 300,000 tons.
The trick -The Uganda Coffee Development Authority was formed in 1991 by government decree, in line with the liberalization of the coffee industry.
Now move to kenya - I think in 1991 - it was 150,000 tonnes.
Now it barely 50,000 tonnes
If we had kept growing it like tea production - our coffee production would be a million plus tonnes
We would be like Veitnam ( Coffee production of Viet Nam increased from 7,300 tonnes in 1970 to 1.68 million tonnes in 2019)
Something radically need to be done here. Gov has to not only recover production to 150,000 tonnes but aim for a million tonnes - by replacing useless maize with lots of coffee production.
The world population is increasing, urbanizing and globalizing - coffee consumption will increase.
This low hanging fruit. Gov should do something different with coffee sector. Borrow from Uganda.
Cost of producing Arabica coffee is higher which is what Kenya produces vs Robusta which is what Uganda produces. Ugandans can produce robusta coffee cheaply and make decent returns. Uganda coffee production exploded as a result while Kenya production contracted after the cooperative societies management collapsed. Most of small coffee holders have neglected their coffee though most of them haven't uprooted the trees. Since the trees are there, all that's needed is to improve husbandry( like before) and production would be back up. The good thing is that with Brazil production being greatly diminished by drought and frost, next year prices are going to be very good. Something similar to the 70s coffee boom, this will entice farmers to go back to coffee farming.
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I think cooperative mismanagement are to blame. If you visit Uganda - everywhere you'll see coffee beans being dried.
Coffee production in 1991 - in uganda was barely 5,000 tons.
Now as we speak - I think it's 300,000 tons.
The trick -The Uganda Coffee Development Authority was formed in 1991 by government decree, in line with the liberalization of the coffee industry.
Now move to kenya - I think in 1991 - it was 150,000 tonnes.
Now it barely 50,000 tonnes
If we had kept growing it like tea production - our coffee production would be a million plus tonnes
We would be like Veitnam ( Coffee production of Viet Nam increased from 7,300 tonnes in 1970 to 1.68 million tonnes in 2019)
Something radically need to be done here. Gov has to not only recover production to 150,000 tonnes but aim for a million tonnes - by replacing useless maize with lots of coffee production.
The world population is increasing, urbanizing and globalizing - coffee consumption will increase.
This low hanging fruit. Gov should do something different with coffee sector. Borrow from Uganda.
Cost of producing Arabica coffee is higher which is what Kenya produces vs Robusta which is what Uganda produces. Ugandans can produce robusta coffee cheaply and make decent returns. Uganda coffee production exploded as a result while Kenya production contracted after the cooperative societies management collapsed. Most of small coffee holders have neglected their coffee though most of them haven't uprooted the trees. Since the trees are there, all that's needed is to improve husbandry( like before) and production would be back up. The good thing is that with Brazil production being greatly diminished by drought and frost, next year prices are going to be very good. Something similar to the 70s coffee boom, this will entice farmers to go back to coffee farming.
The biggest problem with Kenya coffee production is cooperative society monopoly for small holders. The coffee act needs to be repealed or better yet the counties should just fully liberalize the sector. Small estates make more than twice what small holders who are mandated to be part of cooperative societies. If the sector isn't fully liberalized soon, small holders coffee production will soon cease. There's no reason why one should be required to get a pulping license or be forced to "sell" to a monopoly. If legislators don't act on this, an economic freedom case be filed to declare the coffee act illegal.
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Hawking (hasora) easily replaced coffee farming. It must have a higher contribution to GDP than the 8% reported by KNBS in the annual economic surveys under Wholesale and Retail.
Except for Kalenjin young men, all others are serious into hawking after Form 4 or after dropping out of school. It became the norm in the 1990s in the coffee growing areas.
Central Kenya glory days are over with coffee and tea. Only dairy or poultry and other high intensive agriculture. Western is a low hanging fruit for coffee (Robusta); dairy, horticulture, cocoa, vannila name it.
Then Turkanas, Tana Rivers and such.
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Precisely - the sector was never liberalized - some crooks managed to enforce stupid rules.
This is what ailing the sector.
If I was Ruto I would listen to you - and fully liberize the sector.
Uganda has enough lessons.
Uganda - you grow your coffee - pulp it - sun dry it - stop any truck going to Mombasa and load it.
The biggest problem with Kenya coffee production is cooperative society monopoly for small holders. The coffee act needs to be repealed or better yet the counties should just fully liberalize the sector. Small estates make more than twice what small holders who are mandated to be part of cooperative societies. If the sector isn't fully liberalized soon, small holders coffee production will soon cease. There's no reason why one should be required to get a pulping license or be forced to "sell" to a monopoly. If legislators don't act on this, an economic freedom case be filed to declare the coffee act illegal.
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Hawking - informal retail and trade - is okay - but what about the people left in villages? Yes the future is to create coffee farming in highlands of rift valley - half kericho can do well with coffee.
What is needed is coffee development authority like Uganda one.
Then counties to encourage coffee production through seedling and extension services.
Hawking (hasora) easily replaced coffee farming. It must have a higher contribution to GDP than the 8% reported by KNBS in the annual economic surveys under Wholesale and Retail.
Except for Kalenjin young men, all others are serious into hawking after Form 4 or after dropping out of school. It became the norm in the 1990s in the coffee growing areas.
Central Kenya glory days are over with coffee and tea. Only dairy or poultry and other high intensive agriculture. Western is a low hanging fruit for coffee (Robusta); dairy, horticulture, cocoa, vannila name it.
Then Turkanas, Tana Rivers and such.
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There was a bumper harvest in 1997, whose records were fudged for KPCU plunder. To date the farmers have never been paid for this.
Then came intercropping coffee with maize, potatoes, sweet potatoes and Napier/Kikuyu grass lowering the productivity per tree. The pests associated with the intercropped crops and lack of subsidized fertilizer, lime, herbicides eventually killed many trees which were easily used or sold as firewood.