Are you going to walk back your assertions about their state led being a model for Kenya? :D
They were clearly going down before the war.
In fact one the reasons the TPLF relinquished power was the economy. Situation was FUBAR.
They handed Abiy a bomb.
Even China is going down, Evergrande was in the news lately - saddled with huge debts.
Microcosm of the country at large, in debt up to their eyeballs.
Moral of the story: Don't borrow ovyo ovyo to build infrastructure, economy is organic thing you can't artificially juice it up.
The shiny toys they have at Addis were just pulling wool over our face. I have always said the perfect metric for success is refugee flow. Any country spewing copious amounts of refugees is shiet and the one receiving them is better. No matter the bogus Ethiopia rising narrative I knew Ethiopia was all show
No African nation has gotten anywhere on debt binge. The ones standing are just corpses slowly rotting away.
It got nothing with debt - it has everything with Nobel dude starting war with Tigrays - and losing. Meles grew the economy for nearly 30yrs...at double digit. If his model was wrong....please let us have it...30yrs growth model..is awesome.The shiny toys they have at Addis were just pulling wool over our face. I have always said the perfect metric for success is refugee flow. Any country spewing copious amounts of refugees is shiet and the one receiving them is better. No matter the bogus Ethiopia rising narrative I knew Ethiopia was all show
No African nation has gotten anywhere on debt binge. The ones standing are just corpses slowly rotting away.
It was a basket BEFORE the war
The 'growth' was fake or superficial just like Kenya's
Government spending seldom trickles down to anyone other than cronies at the top.
Ndii saw it years ago
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
Academic. War is one we know has made it broke now.It was a basket BEFORE the war
The 'growth' was fake or superficial just like Kenya's
Government spending seldom trickles down to anyone other than cronies at the top.
Ndii saw it years ago
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
Pundit the debt junkie is very stubborn when it comes to facts.
Ethiopia was sunk by debts, Kenya is being sunk by debts.
Get that through your skull.
Debt became only an issue when Ethiopia civil war started with death of Meles Zenawi. First it was Oromos. Now it's Tigrays.
If after 30yrs of Meles - debt was not an issue - how can it become an issue now.
Kenya if it goes to civil war next year - will default faster than Ethiopia.
If it doesnt and negotiate a smooth transition - it will neve default.
So see where the problem lies.Pundit the debt junkie is very stubborn when it comes to facts.
Ethiopia was sunk by debts, Kenya is being sunk by debts.
Get that through your skull.
From $2B in 2008 to 28B in 2019
That's whyDebt became only an issue when Ethiopia civil war started with death of Meles Zenawi. First it was Oromos. Now it's Tigrays.
If after 30yrs of Meles - debt was not an issue - how can it become an issue now.
Kenya if it goes to civil war next year - will default faster than Ethiopia.
If it doesnt and negotiate a smooth transition - it will neve default.
So see where the problem lies.Pundit the debt junkie is very stubborn when it comes to facts.
Ethiopia was sunk by debts, Kenya is being sunk by debts.
Get that through your skull.
2006 3B to 28B - check their GDP figures - like kenya it has grown from 15B to nearly 100B - if they had not taken debt - they wont have made needed investment to grow the economy.
They would still be at 30B dollars GDP if they had not AGGRESIVELY developed by aggressively investing using borrowed money.
Look at countries that dont borrow - let go for Germany
Germany GDP in 2006 - 3 trillion
Germany GDP now - 3.3 trillion
Ethiopia in 15yrs is threatening to grow it economy 7 times (700 percent) - while Kadudu Germany has only manage to grow by 10 percent
IS THAT MODEL YOU WANT US TO ADOPT - DONT BE STUPID LIKE THAT KISUMU GIRL - parroting developed world models - dont borrow/ride bicycles/clean environment/organic farming/bla bla - those are luxuries we cannot afford.
DEBT is a lever for poor countries. It only way to leapfrog.
From $2B in 2008 to 28B in 2019
That's whyDebt became only an issue when Ethiopia civil war started with death of Meles Zenawi. First it was Oromos. Now it's Tigrays.
If after 30yrs of Meles - debt was not an issue - how can it become an issue now.
Kenya if it goes to civil war next year - will default faster than Ethiopia.
If it doesnt and negotiate a smooth transition - it will neve default.
So see where the problem lies.Pundit the debt junkie is very stubborn when it comes to facts.
Ethiopia was sunk by debts, Kenya is being sunk by debts.
Get that through your skull.
They borrow in foreign currency. How do you repay? You have to export stuff. Exports have not been growing at the same rate and that's why they are struggling with debt.
And bulk of that 'growth' is actually this borrowed money blown on infrastructure.
Common sense
Kenya exports has remained stuck for almost forever at 5-6b dollars - and we dont have a problem with forext.
1) Forex can come from FDI - Ethiopia has been attracting low cost manufacturing from China - as they sort out infrastructure - such rail for transporting goods to Djibouti port - Chinese and others rushed in to build factories and such.
2) Ethiopia has turned from famine basket case - to now where it exporting some food - go to Moyale - and see trucks moving to kenya with food.
3) Forex can come from exports - I believe they have grown some industries to some success - like leather.
4) They hoped to replace imports of fuel with more use of electricity to run rail - and also export electricity to Kenya, Sudan and south sudan - earn some forex. Kenya-Ethiopia already spent close a 1B dollars to connect Suswa with Ethiopia. If we kick out IPPs - we can get very cheap power from Ethiopia soon - and pay them forex.
5) Forex can come from remittance - Ethiopia has large diaspora.
6) Forex can come from tourism. Ethiopia airline is booming.
And of course like kenya forex can come from new debts - as you retire old debts using new forex. The war and debt distress make this very dicey.
Kenya still is mostly borrowing 7B dollars to repay 7 B dollars - it debt refinancing - so forex take care of itself - new loans pay the old loans.
But if suddenly - we cannot borrow anymore - then MEGA problems.
In economy - reggae should never stop - otherwise massive problems. Corona/Civil war stops the reggae.
Kenya is surviving on speculative capital inflows and juggling debt as it negotiates an IMF bailout.
Kenya exports has remained stuck for almost forever at 5-6b dollars - and we dont have a problem with forext.
1) Forex can come from FDI - Ethiopia has been attracting low cost manufacturing from China - as they sort out infrastructure - such rail for transporting goods to Djibouti port - Chinese and others rushed in to build factories and such.
2) Ethiopia has turned from famine basket case - to now where it exporting some food - go to Moyale - and see trucks moving to kenya with food.
3) Forex can come from exports - I believe they have grown some industries to some success - like leather.
4) They hoped to replace imports of fuel with more use of electricity to run rail - and also export electricity to Kenya, Sudan and south sudan - earn some forex. Kenya-Ethiopia already spent close a 1B dollars to connect Suswa with Ethiopia. If we kick out IPPs - we can get very cheap power from Ethiopia soon - and pay them forex.
5) Forex can come from remittance - Ethiopia has large diaspora.
6) Forex can come from tourism. Ethiopia airline is booming.
And of course like kenya forex can come from new debts - as you retire old debts using new forex. The war and debt distress make this very dicey.
Kenya still is mostly borrowing 7B dollars to repay 7 B dollars - it debt refinancing - so forex take care of itself - new loans pay the old loans.
But if suddenly - we cannot borrow anymore - then MEGA problems.
In economy - reggae should never stop - otherwise massive problems. Corona/Civil war stops the reggae.They borrow in foreign currency. How do you repay? You have to export stuff. Exports have not been growing at the same rate and that's why they are struggling with debt.
And bulk of that 'growth' is actually this borrowed money blown on infrastructure.
Common sense
?t=daI4SThtcxkcTAbjN9n7rg&s=19There are a group of refugees living on general Mathenge road - new arrivals from Tigray are extremely thin & signs of abuse. They need food, nappies, blankets. If you’re not able to go, I’ll be going to see them again this week. My DMs are open. pic.twitter.com/rgyfGLbabD
— Moina Spooner (@Samooner) October 11, 2021