Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 13, 2021, 01:39:04 PM
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I am not sure about the veracity of this - but it clear Mt kenya are really angry at Uhuru.
https://www.sonkonews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/videoz.mp4?_=1
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Morw like they against anything Raila.Uhuru washes himself from Raila and he would be the most celebrated person there.
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Maybe too late for that. Moi never recovered amongst Kalenjin. Once a community perceive you're interested more on your personal rather than community interest; they reject you almost in toto.
The bottomline as I see; it not only in Raila; it endangering the life and properties of a million of kikuyus in Rift valley by reopening old wounds that had healed; that kind of recklessness breed deep seated bitterness and hatred - not only amongst the diaspora - but also their relatives.
Even if Uhuru was to back Kalonzo or maDVD - the 1 million diaspora kikuyus in RV future will remain the elephant - for they will be meet with such hostility and repercussion in RV - if not now - but definitely in near future - it almost crazy Uhuru can entertain that kind of reckless politicking.
Morw like they against anything Raila.Uhuru washes himself from Raila and he would be the most celebrated person there.
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There are other ways one can read your post: It can be either a self-fulfilling prophesy you are making or a veiled attempt at tribal blackmail (vote for Ruto or else...). This, by the way, is the second such post I've seen by you.
For Kenya's sake, I hope I am wrong.
https://www.dictionary.com/e/pop-culture/self-fulfilling-prophecy/
Maybe too late for that. Moi never recovered amongst Kalenjin. Once a community perceive you're interested more on your personal rather than community interest; they reject you almost in toto.
The bottomline as I see; it not only in Raila; it endangering the life and properties of a million of kikuyus in Rift valley by reopening old wounds that had healed; that kind of recklessness breed deep seated bitterness and hatred - not only amongst the diaspora - but also their relatives.
Even if Uhuru was to back Kalonzo or maDVD - the 1 million diaspora kikuyus in RV future will remain the elephant - for they will be meet with such hostility and repercussion in RV - if not now - but definitely in near future - it almost crazy Uhuru can entertain that kind of reckless politicking.
Morw like they against anything Raila.Uhuru washes himself from Raila and he would be the most celebrated person there.
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I am dispassionate political pundit. I analyze things as they are. Is Ruto a thief - yes. Did Gachagua kill Gukuru - possibly. Is Raila a thief -yes. Is Uhuru a thief- yes.Did Ruto kill witnesses - yebei yes. Did Uhuru kill Mungiki witnesses - a lot. What would happen in the event of political fallout btw Kikuyu-Kalenjin - we go back to pre-2010 - tension - clashes - arm race - that kind of thig. And big possibility of major tribal clashes like 2007.
As of now - no kalenjin will talk war - because Kikiyus refused to buy into Uhuru schemes and election has not happened - but trust me - if we wake up on 10th August 2022 - and kikuyus say do not vote for Ruto - and you are kikuyu leaving amongst kalenjin - you better run - if they dont react then - they will bide their time until the opportunity come - but in the meantime they will harass you - steal your cows and the works. If Mt kenya had bought into Uhuru and company schemes - RV now would be full of tension - people would be migrating out to safe places.
Once you learn to analyze things dispassionately - as they are - not as you wish - then you start to make the right calls/judgements/predictions/decisions.
There are other ways one can read your post: It can be either a self-fulfilling prophesy you are making or a veiled attempt at tribal blackmail (vote for Ruto or else...). This, by the way, is the second such post I've seen by you.
For Kenya's sake, I hope I am wrong.
https://www.dictionary.com/e/pop-culture/self-fulfilling-prophecy/
Maybe too late for that. Moi never recovered amongst Kalenjin. Once a community perceive you're interested more on your personal rather than community interest; they reject you almost in toto.
The bottomline as I see; it not only in Raila; it endangering the life and properties of a million of kikuyus in Rift valley by reopening old wounds that had healed; that kind of recklessness breed deep seated bitterness and hatred - not only amongst the diaspora - but also their relatives.
Even if Uhuru was to back Kalonzo or maDVD - the 1 million diaspora kikuyus in RV future will remain the elephant - for they will be meet with such hostility and repercussion in RV - if not now - but definitely in near future - it almost crazy Uhuru can entertain that kind of reckless politicking.
Morw like they against anything Raila.Uhuru washes himself from Raila and he would be the most celebrated person there.
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I see it from usual Itumbi news. Uhuru is not running for Ichaweri MCA - he is outgoing incumbent dedicated to Ruto defeat.
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Here is Uhuru doing his thing - oiling anti-Ruto engine
Ruto troops: We shall trounce Raila-Uhuru alliance
Deputy President Wiliam Ruto's allies say they are not worried about the push by major Opposition leaders to craft an alliance against him ahead of 2022.
Political analysts warn, however, that a formidable opposition team backed by President Uhuru Kenyatta could easily vanquish Ruto as he makes a first stab at the presidency.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-08-13-ruto-troops-we-shall-trounce-raila-uhuru-alliance/
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:o :o :o
Those wounds have never healed. Otherwise you would not be out there blackmailing people.
Maybe too late for that. Moi never recovered amongst Kalenjin. Once a community perceive you're interested more on your personal rather than community interest; they reject you almost in toto.
The bottomline as I see; it not only in Raila; it endangering the life and properties of a million of kikuyus in Rift valley by reopening old wounds that had healed; that kind of recklessness breed deep seated bitterness and hatred - not only amongst the diaspora - but also their relatives.
Even if Uhuru was to back Kalonzo or maDVD - the 1 million diaspora kikuyus in RV future will remain the elephant - for they will be meet with such hostility and repercussion in RV - if not now - but definitely in near future - it almost crazy Uhuru can entertain that kind of reckless politicking.
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I think if UhuRuto does another 20yrs - then Kikuyu - then Kalenjin - they will heal. They were only re-opened when Kikuyu wanted to cut short MOi presidency. Yet kalenjin had waited patiently for Kenyatta to die. The agreement was Moi was also to die in power - life presidency.Kalenjin understood that was the deal - but clearly Moi was not going to die anytime soon.
Again I am not blackmailing anybody. I am analyzing politics.
Just like 1992 - when Kalenjin revisted the land issue - as Mt kenya agitated to cut short Moi rule - those wounds are linked to POLITICS.For Kikuyu and other diaspora got RV land due to politics (Jomo Kenyatta)
So those two land and politics are intertwined. You have to manage both careful so you dont reopen wounds. You need to be fair. Any 'unfairness' reopen the land woes.
Moronic version - Kikuyu and kalenjin should try to be together in politics :) forever - until kenya urbanize and we kill tribal politics.
:o :o :o
Those wounds have never healed. Otherwise you would not be out there blackmailing people.
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There is yet a third way to interpret your messages. They can be taken as dog whistles to Kalenjins.
Again, for the sake of Kenya, I hope I am wrong.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dog%20whistle
I think if UhuRuto does another 20yrs - then Kikuyu - then Kalenjin - they will heal. They were only re-opened when Kikuyu wanted to cut short MOi presidency. Yet kalenjin had waited patiently for Kenyatta to die. The agreement was Moi was also to die.
Again I am not blackmailing anybody. I am analyzing politics.
Just like 1992 - when Kalenjin revisted the land issue - as Mt kenya agitated to cut short Moi rule - those wounds are linked to POLITICS.For Kikuyu and other diaspora got RV land due to politics (Jomo Kenyatta)
So those two land and politics are intertwined. You have to manage both careful so you dont reopen wounds. You need to be fair. Any 'unfairness' reopen the land woes.
:o :o :o
Those wounds have never healed. Otherwise you would not be out there blackmailing people.
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Kalenjin do not need any dog whistle; they do not need to be incited; they do not need to be organized; these things they know at back of their head; They know that some tribes invaded their land post colonial period. They have always nursed ambition to take it back - but can give it up - for state largesse. The same way Muranga people see the huge Delmonte farm - and feel they need to take it back.
There is yet a third way to interpret your messages. They can be taken as a dog whistles to Kalenjins.
Again, for the sake of Kenya, I hope I am wrong.
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This guy is always issuing these threats
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RV Ill be honest with you, If there was a repeat of 2007 Kalenjins will lose and will not be able to recover. Uhuru and company St Mary boys wany that.
Now Ruto is a btilliant fellow he saw that years ago and he has tackled it in a way that has made him the incomming President.
In as much Mt Kenya residents care about their relatives in Rift Valley their seige mentality is against Raila.lets say if Raila decides to support Ruto they will turn against Ruto without any campaiging. So you need to stop self deceit that Mt Kenya love Ruto, no they hate Raila amd Ruto is the formidable candidate against Raila just like Uhuru was in 2013 and 2017 and Kibaki was in 2007.
Maybe too late for that. Moi never recovered amongst Kalenjin. Once a community perceive you're interested more on your personal rather than community interest; they reject you almost in toto.
The bottomline as I see; it not only in Raila; it endangering the life and properties of a million of kikuyus in Rift valley by reopening old wounds that had healed; that kind of recklessness breed deep seated bitterness and hatred - not only amongst the diaspora - but also their relatives.
Even if Uhuru was to back Kalonzo or maDVD - the 1 million diaspora kikuyus in RV future will remain the elephant - for they will be meet with such hostility and repercussion in RV - if not now - but definitely in near future - it almost crazy Uhuru can entertain that kind of reckless politicking.
Morw like they against anything Raila.Uhuru washes himself from Raila and he would be the most celebrated person there.
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Kalenjins may "know" them but that doesn't mean that they cannot be inflamed for political or for "analysis" purposes.
Kalenjin do not need any dog whistle; they do not need to be incited; they do not need to be organized; these things they know at back of their head;
There is yet a third way to interpret your messages. They can be taken as a dog whistles to Kalenjins.
Again, for the sake of Kenya, I hope I am wrong.
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Show me one threat I have issued. I am analyzing politics. I analyzed Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kabul. You have a problem with the TRUTH.
This guy is always issuing these threats
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Now you using different word. Inflame? Uhuru is the one INFLAMING - just like Kibaki did. Everytime Uhuru unfairly treat Ruto - he inflame Kalenjin. Not Me.Everytime Uhuru hounds a Kalenjin unfarily from a job - the message - he sends is that it okay to unfairly treat a kikuyu immigrant.
Everytime Ruto cries I am humiliated - he inflame kalenjin. NOT me. They dont say...but I know how they feel. They feel 50-50 peace accord kumi kumi has been violated. They dont see the kind to respect the other accords for peaceful coexistence.
I am just helping you understand kalenjin and Kikiyu pysche.
I am helping you understand why Kikuyu hate Uhuru....then you say I am inciting ...because PEV or land clashes or war is TABOO SUBJECT or what.
The information you can use - to stay SAFE or INVEST safely.
Nothing is TABOO subject for me. Forget trying to gag me. And I am last person to incite anybody. I married gema and my kids are half-gema. My investment in Nairobi - especially those at edges - are under threat. My own wife and kids I would not dare take them to kalenjin on some days. Just like I wont find myself in GEMA on some days.
We grew up - the only family in location supporting kibaki - a kikuyu in the 90s. My brother is married to kiambu kikuyu woman.
Kalenjins may "know" them but that doesn't mean that they cannot be inflamed for political purposes.
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But there have not been any killings of Kikuyus so far. In light of the intense political competition right now, do you feel that some "analysts" may be feeling that some killings are long overdue to send a message to Kikuyus?
Now you using different word. Inflame? Uhuru is the one INFLAMING - just like Kibaki did. Everytime Uhuru unfairly treat Ruto - he inflame Kalenjin. Not Me.Everytime Uhuru hounds a Kalenjin unfarily from a job - the message - he sends is that it okay to unfairly treat a kikuyu immigrant.
Everytime Ruto cries I am humiliated - he inflame kalenjin. NOT me. They dont say...but I know how they feel.
I am just helping you understand kalenjin and Kikiyu pysche.
I am helping you understand why Kikuyu hate Uhuru....then you say I am inciting ...because PEV or land clashes or war is TABOO SUBJECT or what.
The information you can use - to stay SAFE or INVEST safely.
Kalenjins may "know" them but that doesn't mean that they cannot be inflamed for political purposes.
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Why would they torpedo Ruto chance by doing that. That is like the last option. The joker that someone hides. They will only pull such a card if all cards have been exhausted. Those cards will only exhausted once Ruto has lost in all rounds and appeals 2022 elections.
If you think that I can call for the killing of anybody then you dont know me. You're just a despicable rascal.
If I analyze and say Kalenjin warriors will beat Mungiki and police - it the same way I said the Tigrays will beat Ethiopians or Afgan will beat the US.
If I predict that Kalenjin will go to war with kikuyus if Kumi-kumi is not honoured - then I become an inciter :) or you just do not want to hear the truth.
But there have not been any killings of Kikuyus so far. In light of the intense political competition right now, do you feel that some "analysts" may be feeling that some killings are long overdue to send a message to Kikuyus?
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No need to get excited and for the name-calling, especially if your conscience is clear.
Why would they torpedo Ruto chance by doing that. That is like the last option. The joker that someone hides. They will only pull such a card if all cards have been exhausted.
If you think that I can call for the killing of anybody then you dont know me. You're just a despicable rascal.
If I analyze and say Kalenjin warriors will beat Mungiki and police - it the same way I said the Tigrays will beat Ethiopians or Afgan will beat the US.
But there have not been any killings of Kikuyus so far. In light of the intense political competition right now, do you feel that some "analysts" may be feeling that some killings are long overdue to send a message to Kikuyus?
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You're one doing the name-calling by quoting some "analyst" - I can read between the lines. Just say it directly. I know some of you do not want to hear the truth. But I will always speak the truth.
The truth remains that Kenya can go to civil war anytime if the tribal politics is not well managed like is happening in Ethiopia.
You can bury your head like Rwanda and make it a taboo subject.
The other truth - one key factor of 2022 - and the reason why Ruto signed the deal with Uhuru - is the hostage scenario that GEMA diaspora - provides as insurance from being betrayed like happened to Raila in 2002 or Jaramogi before that. Some of the "Love" Ruto gets from GEMA is actually FEAR. My own girlfriend from Molo - a kikuyu - has told me this severally. On the same coin the HATRED uhuru get is because of that - putting their lifes and properties in danger.
These are truth - nobody in Jubilee or NASA - want to hear.
No need to get excited and for the name-calling, especially if your conscience is clear.
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Pundit, why do you create your own stories? There was never such an agreement. Moi ascended to power at the age of 56. Were all Kenyans to wait for him to die let us say at the age of 90?
As of land issues, those will be there for Kenyans to deal with in the next 50 years. One day the locals of Lamu will one day wake up followed by those of Taita Taveta.
Btw, I was surprised to hear the other day Kalejin politicians complaining it was Raila who was a nuisance to Moi's regime. No mention of any Kikuyus wanting to end Moi's rule. How times change. :D :D :D
I think if UhuRuto does another 20yrs - then Kikuyu - then Kalenjin - they will heal. They were only re-opened when Kikuyu wanted to cut short MOi presidency. Yet kalenjin had waited patiently for Kenyatta to die. The agreement was Moi was also to die in power - life presidency.Kalenjin understood that was the deal - but clearly Moi was not going to die anytime soon.
Again I am not blackmailing anybody. I am analyzing politics.
Just like 1992 - when Kalenjin revisted the land issue - as Mt kenya agitated to cut short Moi rule - those wounds are linked to POLITICS.For Kikuyu and other diaspora got RV land due to politics (Jomo Kenyatta)
So those two land and politics are intertwined. You have to manage both careful so you dont reopen wounds. You need to be fair. Any 'unfairness' reopen the land woes.
Moronic version - Kikuyu and kalenjin should try to be together in politics :) forever - until kenya urbanize and we kill tribal politics.
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I told you once but you may have forgotten. If one is patient, time reveals a lot. We shall see. Also, I clearly told you that for the sake of Kenya, I hope I'm wrong. Again, we shall see. Your discomfort for being asked questions (in a thread that you yourself started) is nothing compared to what would happen to a Kikuyu or any other tribal member in the Rift Valley (or elsewhere in Kenya), if we have a repeat of 2007/8.
You're one doing the name-calling by quoting some "analyst" - I can read between the lines. Just say it directly. I know some of you do not want to hear the truth. But I will always speak the truth.
No need to get excited and for the name-calling, especially if your conscience is clear.
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I have been online - for long - many people confuse my punditry - especially on kalenjin - for incitement. It is not. I was there in 2007 - I run and hid severally from being conscripted to go fight people.
Discomfort of what? I will never incite or kill or steal or any of those things. Why would I do any of that - when I have lived honest happy life.
If Ruto loses - I will move on with life - and will be here the next day - but will many kalenjin do the same - hell no. Many of people do not have the IQ and morality to rationalize things...they will kill their neigberhour for politics.
I told you once but you may have forgotten. If one is patient, time reveals a lot. We shall see. Also, I clearly told you that for the sake of Kenya, I hope I'm wrong. Again, we shall see. Your discomfort for being asked questions (in a thread that you yourself started) is nothing compared to what would happen to a Kikuyu or any other tribal member in the Rift Valley (or elsewhere in Kenya), if we have a repeat of 2007/8.
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This is what I heard in 1992. That Kikiyus had violated the common sense deal. Kenyatta had been life president and so Moi was to also die in power. This was the main cause of 1992 tribal clashes. The agitation for multi-partism - for kalenjin was the ending of life presidency of Moi - obviously with tribal maths - a kikuyu was going to win. Therefore the kalenjin started stolen land argument. Kalenjin led by Moi of course.
They are actually not tribal or land clashes - they should be called Political Clashes. Genuine land clashes are those like SDLF - where one saboti clan fight another over land allocation gone wrong - or where people actually go to forest like Mau Mau and really fight for it for a long time.
Not one that ends and start with politics.
Pundit, why do you create your own stories? There was never such an agreement. Moi ascended to power at the age of 56. Were all Kenyans to wait for him to die let us say at the age of 90?
As of land issues, those will be there for Kenyans to deal with in the next 50 years. One day the locals of Lamu will one day wake up followed by those of Taita Taveta.
Btw, I was surprised to hear the other day Kalejin politicians complaining it was Raila who was a nuisance to Moi's regime. No mention of any Kikuyus wanting to end Moi's rule. How times change. :D :D :D
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so what would Kalenjins do to Kikuyus. It seems you even dont understand Uhurus game.Right now Kalenjins in Kenya are the most hated akin to Kikuyus in 2007. Whats shielding them is Mt Kenya. once they lose that its kaput.
Ruto very well understands that.Unlike you who pokes Mt Kenya haezi thubutu.
I told you once but you may have forgotten. If one is patient, time reveals a lot. We shall see. Also, I clearly told you that for the sake of Kenya, I hope I'm wrong. Again, we shall see. Your discomfort for being asked questions (in a thread that you yourself started) is nothing compared to what would happen to a Kikuyu or any other tribal member in the Rift Valley (or elsewhere in Kenya), if we have a repeat of 2007/8.
You're one doing the name-calling by quoting some "analyst" - I can read between the lines. Just say it directly. I know some of you do not want to hear the truth. But I will always speak the truth.
No need to get excited and for the name-calling, especially if your conscience is clear.
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What is Uhuru game? I think nobody knows for sure! Whatever he is doing doesnt make sense to anybody.
so what would Kalenjins do to Kikuyus. It seems you even dont understand Uhurus game.Right now Kalenjins in Kenya are the most hated akin to Kikuyus in 2007. Whats shielding them is Mt Kenya. once they lose that its kaput.
Ruto very well understands that.Unlike you who pokes Mt Kenya haezi thubutu.
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All this from a fake video. So Uhuru travels in civilian convoy? Desperation kweli. I think the ground question was temporarily answered at Kiambaa-Muguga: 50-50
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So the candidates had no strength and weakness of their own?
All this from a fake video. So Uhuru travels in civilian convoy? Desperation kweli. I think the ground question was temporarily answered at Kiambaa-Muguga: 50-50
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No it was all Ruto vs Uhuru ... even the time itself was in FUTURE.
So the candidates had no strength and weakness of their own?
All this from a fake video. So Uhuru travels in civilian convoy? Desperation kweli. I think the ground question was temporarily answered at Kiambaa-Muguga: 50-50
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I am not sure this truth is acceptable to Pundit. He believes the Kikuyu are at the mercy of the Kalenjin.
My own view: any anti-diaspora violence is more of a booby-trap against Ruto.
so what would Kalenjins do to Kikuyus. It seems you even dont understand Uhurus game.Right now Kalenjins in Kenya are the most hated akin to Kikuyus in 2007. Whats shielding them is Mt Kenya. once they lose that its kaput.
Ruto very well understands that.Unlike you who pokes Mt Kenya haezi thubutu.
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And Uhuru can give his votes to anybody. Uhuru=Raila. Raila has 50 percent of Mt kenya :) - some flawed logic there. Let say Uhuru has latent 50 percent - how much of that - is the support for his gov - and how much of that can he transfer - to - someone hated like Raila :)
No it was all Ruto vs Uhuru ... even the time itself was in FUTURE.
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I think half of is fear of violence; half of it love/admiration for Ruto; half of it economic mess anger - morphed into economic inequality/halve-nots versus dynasty; half of it fear of Raila.
You can choose and pick which one appeals to you - but definitely it a combination of admiration of ruto the person, the fear of Kalenjin going on a rampage on their people and knowing the police would not help, the anger against Uhuru and mt Kenya elite from the majority dealing with south-Africa like economic class divide, and of course the ever-presence railaphobia.
To therefore completely decouple Ruto - you need to address all those issues.
1) You need to assure Mt kenya people of their future in RV - where about a million of their people live - in an uneasy relationship with Rvs. This the Taboo Subject of 2022 - because apart from me - nobody talks about it. Everyone knows it an issue. RVs have gone deadly silent - from 1st term of Deni Lazima Ilipwa - to - HAMNA DENI :). Conspiracy of silence continues but it is big concern for Mt Kenya people living in RV. That is why they really hate Uhuru...for they know the drill.
2) You need to damage Ruto's character - Ruto is seen as a humble, dependable, and reachable Christian boy. You have more chance of success there if you also know Ruto is very corrupt. MOST propaganda was spent here - and it probably had the most success if you can call it that :) until Uhuru family,ODM and Murathe were found with their hands-on CORONA (of all things) fund jar :). Kimwarer/Aror when compared to COVID billionaires relathieves - it is either a draw or Uhuru-Raila loses.
3) You need to respond to the hustler-dynastic economic/class divide - you need to find an extensional threat - that would unite Mt Kenya - so much they forget internal issues. You need to demonstrate that Ruto would be worse as an external threat - than whatever internal fissures. You need to stop banding around the sons and daughters of dynasties - and Uhuru need to rediscover his mojo - the one where he would drink Muratina.
4) Railaphobia/Luophobia - this can be easily counter-man by Kalenjin/Moiphobia. Ruguru threat is probably similar to many diehards Mt Kenya nationalist- R v R - ideally. But not now - maybe in the 2nd round when Mt Kenya nation has no option. For now they will ask why no go for Musyoka or MaDVD
This is why it almost hopeless to fight Ruto in Mt kenya :)
This is why four years late - most of them have given up.
I am not sure this truth is acceptable to Pundit. He believes the Kikuyu are at the mercy of the Kalenjin.
My own view: any anti-diaspora violence is more of a booby-trap against Ruto.
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Not everyone will follow your advise on how to attack Ruto. Decapitating mean machine already scuttled half the sheep. Then you insisted Raila must get nusu-mkate which he deftly ducked. You see you only have KEMSA to pin on Murathe.
Today Raila has a solid bunch of Kikuyu wazee, Kamanda, James Nyoros, Kaninis backing him. ODM has no Mt Kenya office but Raila has good prospects. It easy to tell the strategy: leave ground to Jubilee, Muturi, etc. This same strategy in Wiper, ANC areas.
Meantime Uhuru is spending more time as Raila deal-maker than PORK. Uhuru is obviously behind all those SK Macharias and Waigurus endorsing Raila, he is behind GoK hostility to any Ruto-friendly "financiers" or investors. I doubt Ruto Chirchir can even run a vote-tally center without NIS raids.
Uhuru is behind Muturi. If you look harder, you will see it Uhuru fierce ground game that gives Kuria and Kiunjuri the backbone to make hard demands on Ruto. They know Ruto on his own is toast - like Kiambaa meagre 50-49 margin - any small division and Jubilee wins.
Yes, you can surmise 50-50 will boil down to same estimate. NASA are discrete tribal parties and have fewer headaches to overcome than Ruto. If UDA was a solid party (maybe 5 years like URP) it would be safer. Now it has 1MP - fierce onslaughts - and already facing INTERNAL problems. What will happen if Kuria and Kiunjuri leave? - have you considered that? I mean if they leave outright or continue viciously attacking UDA? Ruto may discover it is safer to play hands-off like Raila, than bother with Gema shenanigans.
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In short, Pundit, Ruto is not leading so you can advise us on how to catch up. He needs to deal with Kuria and Kiunjuri - to get back the underdog lane against Raila NARC2 - the flying horse. Those analysts saying Ruto will be swiftly vanquished are not crazy.
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Raila and Mt kenya - that is a big mountain to surmount in 1yr. He still where he was last year - at Githurai :) junction - with fake elders and known political conmen like maDVD guy Kioni :) - still a long way to Nyeri town - and then the ascend to the top of the Mountain :D.
Well it also possible that Uhuru will get him into Airforce Helicopter and drop him at Mbatian peak :) :)
One thing - Ruto support with Mt kenya is direct - not through proxies. Yes of course some Kikiyus expect to get DPORk and 50 percent. This I expect is the next tussle. They will try to say we will only support you if you give us DPORK and 50. That is already a given.
But Ruto is not going to rush to give 50 percent to anybody and this soon - and risk a fallout.
In fact majority of Kikuyus do not even care about DPORK and 50 percent - they want to hear Bottom UP.
Kiunjuri I have advised him severally to up his game - attack Uhuru and his gov - but he doesnt listen. Now Munya is killing him with agriclutural reforms. He was clear front runner because Kikuyus know he is a nationalist of Mt Kenya and can defend their interest - but he messing up. Quit TSP - tissue paper thing has failed to gain traction - and join UDA. And while in UDA - now go total frontal on Uhuru - and try to edge the line up.
Kuria is smarter - but he comes from Gatundu South.
Kiunjuri needs to really find at least 10 mps and MCAs - otherwise join UDA - and fight inside it with Wahome and Gachaguas.
I see a situation where Ruto commission an opinion poll and appoint the tallest of the dwarfs.
In meantime Uhuru is meeting Raila without even a Mt Kenya leader on that table :)
Not everyone will follow your advise on how to attack Ruto. Decapitating mean machine already scuttled half the sheep. Then you insisted Raila must get nusu-mkate which he deftly ducked. You see you only have KEMSA to pin on Murathe.
Today Raila has a solid bunch of Kikuyu wazee, Kamanda, James Nyoros, Kaninis backing him. ODM has no Mt Kenya office but Raila has good prospects. It easy to tell the strategy: leave ground to Jubilee, Muturi, etc. This same strategy in Wiper, ANC areas.
Meantime Uhuru is spending more time as Raila deal-maker than PORK. Uhuru is obviously behind all those SK Macharias and Waigurus endorsing Raila, he is behind GoK hostility to any Ruto-friendly "financiers" or investors. I doubt Ruto Chirchir can even run a vote-tally center without NIS raids.
Uhuru is behind Muturi. If you look harder, you will see it Uhuru fierce ground game that gives Kuria and Kiunjuri the backbone to make hard demands on Ruto. They know Ruto on his own is toast - like Kiambaa meagre 50-49 margin - any small division and Jubilee wins.
Yes, you can surmise 50-50 will boil down to same estimate. NASA are discrete tribal parties and have fewer headaches to overcome than Ruto. If UDA was a solid party (maybe 5 years like URP) it would be safer. Now it has 1MP - fierce onslaughts - and already facing INTERNAL problems. What will happen if Kuria and Kiunjuri leave? - have you considered that? I mean if they leave outright or continue viciously attacking UDA? Ruto may discover it is safer to play hands-off like Raila, than bother with Gema shenanigans.
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Raila is already a flying horse :) - how now? Mt kenya including Kieleweke are now arguing about 50-50; Ruto will select DPORK and do 50-50 with GEMA: it given. It why the NASA folks cannot go to Ruto - they know NO 1 and No 2 is already taken. You come for No 3, 4, 5.
They need to fight amongst themselves on who is the leader - otherwise Ruto will choose one for them.
In short, Pundit, Ruto is not leading so you can advise us on how to catch up. He needs to deal with Kuria and Kiunjuri - to get back the underdog lane against Raila NARC2 - the flying horse. Those analysts saying Ruto will be swiftly vanquished are not crazy.