Nipate

Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2021, 02:28:12 PM

Title: One year to election - I will be releasing rough MOASS by end of this month.
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2021, 02:28:12 PM

Let wait for the BBI ruling on the 20th first - as I collect data :)

Title: Re: One year to election - I will be releasing rough MOASS by end of this month.
Post by: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2021, 02:44:03 PM

Now that KNBS didnt tabulate population tribe wise per county unlike 10 years earlier . How will you gauge the Tribal arithmetics ?
MOAS would be closer to accurate after final Voter registration is tallied.. Nonetheless will be an interesting read.

Title: Re: One year to election - I will be releasing rough MOASS by end of this month.
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2021, 02:50:18 PM

I am sure they did; it just getting the data out; This will be rough MOAS - until we get final register and final candidates;

Quote from: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2021, 02:44:03 PM

Now that KNBS didnt tabulate population tribe wise per county unlike 10 years earlier . How will you gauge the Tribal arithmetics ?
MOAS would be closer to accurate after final Voter registration is tallied.. Nonetheless will be an interesting read.

Title: Re: One year to election - I will be releasing rough MOASS by end of this month.
Post by: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2021, 02:56:39 PM

Okay good luck. My interest would be to see your MOAS wothout Raila running. Thats a tricky Maths equation for Ruto.

Quote from: RV Pundit on August 09, 2021, 02:50:18 PM

I am sure they did; it just getting the data out; This will be rough MOAS - until we get final register and final candidates;

Quote from: Nowayhaha on August 09, 2021, 02:44:03 PM

Now that KNBS didnt tabulate population tribe wise per county unlike 10 years earlier . How will you gauge the Tribal arithmetics ?
MOAS would be closer to accurate after final Voter registration is tallied.. Nonetheless will be an interesting read.

Title: Re: One year to election - I will be releasing rough MOASS by end of this month.
Post by: RV Pundit on August 09, 2021, 06:12:24 PM

The candidates that I think put in MOAS - are those that will actually run. The way I see Uhuru is prepping for 2nd round contest - I don't think the opposition can be united against Ruto.

1) Ruto
2) Raila
3) Kalonzo
4) Madvd
5) Gideon Moi - likely to be the Uhuru candidate - and could be matched with another GEMA - to mirror Ruto/GEMA.

Big Question Mark
1) Weta - likely to drop out for madvd in another Amani or join Ruto.
2) Amason Kingi - Already out of ODM - is likely to run or join Ruto.
3) Mutua - Likely to chicken out and join Raila.
4) Muturi/Gema proxy - Likely to run if well funded. Kieleweke wing know selling Raila is one way ticket home - so they are likely to prop one of their own - and try kikuyu or Gema nationalism.

Matiangi is keeping his day job.