Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on July 16, 2021, 07:58:21 AM
-
The spin about machinery sijui intimidation from Tangatanga here is laughable. Same as the fake polls of UDA landslides.
This was the first square UDA vs Jubilee in a constituency ... the big difference with Juja is
1)no hiding behind PEP or local briefcase for Ruto. No fake "respect" for Uhuru
2)no 2022 vagueness for Uhuru... he is openly cobbling Handshake lineup as Raila campaign manager
What I see: Ruto has done poorly in Kiambaa and Muguga. Gema from 99% Uhuruto is now 50-50. Ruto needs to break Jubilee to pieces and ensure eveyone flees to UDA. But this lucklustre result will make people dither in Jubilee. Ingekuwa at least 2-1 ala Juja and Rurii.
Raila needs to stitch together Handshake lineup. He is waiting for BBI ruling so he is careful not to declare he is running for PORK to keep Mdvd and Kalonzo hopeful. He has appointed Ruto boy Uhuru his campaign manager :)
-
In short Raila without NASA unity has not solidied non-Gema. Ruto has not solidified Gema.
This race remains very open.
-
What is not wishful is UDA/Ruto are in GEMA frontdoor. What is wishful is BBI :), Uhuru campaigning for Raila and finally NASA uniting. The most wishful is Raila getting 50 percent of GEMA :)
What is not wishful is this election ended indeed in a stalemate. There are of course local issues - but UDA did not manage to bury Jubilee completely.
There will be no funeral for Jubilee yet.
This good for Ruto - as UDA badly needed to enter front door of GEMA - not going through the window (PDP/TSP) - but it means he needs more work on Mt Kenya - and this also good to keep Babaman hopeful. Ruto needs Raila to win 2022.
The spin about machinery sijui intimidation from Tangatanga here is laughable. Same as the fake polls of UDA landslides.
This was the first square UDA vs Jubilee in a constituency ... the big difference with Juja is
1)no hiding behind PEP or local briefcase for Ruto. No fake "respect" for Uhuru
2)no 2022 vagueness for Uhuru... he is openly cobbling Handshake lineup as Raila campaign manager
What I see: Ruto has done poorly in Kiambaa and Muguga. Gema from 99% Uhuruto is now 50-50. Ruto needs to break Jubilee to pieces and ensure eveyone flees to UDA. But this lucklustre result will make people dither in Jubilee. Ingekuwa at least 2-1 ala Juja and Rurii.
Raila needs to stitch together Handshake lineup. He is waiting for BBI ruling so he is careful not to declare he is running for PORK to keep Mdvd and Kalonzo hopeful. He has appointed Ruto boy Uhuru his campaign manager :)
-
Ruto is hardworking and organized. Raila is more strategic. I mean Raila just stole the Gema prince, decapitated Jubilee, and all this hard work Ruto must put in Gema is literally to undo Raila handshake effect. Whatever you give Raila in Gema remember he had NOTHING - maybe 2% - 3 years ago.
Ruto has played his biggest cards - hustler vs dynasty and bottom-up - some traction in Gema, flop in non-Gema. See Kalonzo has no known ideology or vision but delivered such a comprehensive rout in Machakos.
BBI is in court. If you think that is wishful thinking... Raila and Kalonzos are hanging on it. That is why none of them will be caught dead with Ruto - cause that would ruin their chances - it posturing time. Even pwani crew are waiting to be CS.
And how is this Kiambaa outcome good for Ruto? If Jubilee does not die - that is very risky for Ruto - because if BBI resurrects Kimunyas will have goodies to sell. Don't forget BBI is Uhuru-Raila decoy to string everyone especially Gema.
Ati local issues - this was purely 2022. BBI is in comatose, Uhuru candidate is Raila, and you TIE 50-50 with him. Not good at all for Ruto.
What is not wishful is UDA/Ruto are in GEMA frontdoor. What is wishful is BBI :), Uhuru campaigning for Raila and finally NASA uniting. The most wishful is Raila getting 50 percent of GEMA :)
What is not wishful is this election ended indeed in a stalemate. There are of course local issues - but UDA did not manage to bury Jubilee completely.
There will be no funeral for Jubilee yet.
This good for Ruto - as UDA badly needed to enter front door of GEMA - not going through the window (PDP/TSP) - but it means he needs more work on Mt Kenya - and this also good to keep Babaman hopeful. Ruto needs Raila to win 2022.
-
If you begin from a wrong premise then you get everything wrong.
The premise that majority of those that voted Jubilee candidates; were voting or are willing to vote for Raila is untested and false;
In fact Jubilee spend more time running away from ODM/Raila in their campaigns - and took issues with merger talks.
Kimunya is even on video - saying they have no problem with Ruto on the top.
Why is Raila best opponent for Ruto...because GEMA including Uhuru himself will not vote for him.
If Babaman is made aware of this - and he was not a day-dreamer - he would do the rational thing - become a king maker.
Ruto is afraid of someone like Kalonzo or MaDVD or even Matiangi - becuase if UHuru was to sell one of those - they could get a traction - he could actually deliver some of that 50 (ignoring local issues) to them. Selling Babaman is something else - all we have heard is Tuju-Murathe ODM-Jubilee merger which even Kieleweke opposed...Raila is hard sell.
As for Raila handshake strategic moves- mmh - MAYBE YOU SHOULD CONSIDER HE IS BEING USED - rather than he is using anyone- and maybe you should review what he has really gained.
It almost seem Jubilee will rebrand into UDA - leaving ODM with baggage :) of old Jubilee rag. Brilliant moves.
Ruto is hardworking and organized. Raila is more strategic. I mean Raila just stole the Gema prince, decapitated Jubilee, and all this hard work Ruto must put in Gema is literally to undo Raila handshake effect. Whatever you give Raila in Gema remember he had NOTHING - maybe 2% - 3 years ago.
Ruto has played his biggest cards - hustler vs dynasty and bottom-up - some traction in Gema, flop in non-Gema. See Kalonzo has no known ideology or vision but delivered such a comprehensive rout in Machakos.
BBI is in court. If you think that is wishful thinking... Raila and Kalonzos are hanging on it. That is why none of them will be caught dead with Ruto - cause that would ruin their chances - it posturing time. Even pwani crew are waiting to be CS.
And how is this Kiambaa outcome good for Ruto? If Jubilee does not die - that is very risky for Ruto - because if BBI resurrects Kimunyas will have goodies to sell. Don't forget BBI is Uhuru-Raila decoy to string everyone especially Gema.
Ati local issues - this was purely 2022. BBI is in comatose, Uhuru candidate is Raila, and you TIE 50-50 with him. Not good at all for Ruto.
What is not wishful is UDA/Ruto are in GEMA frontdoor. What is wishful is BBI :), Uhuru campaigning for Raila and finally NASA uniting. The most wishful is Raila getting 50 percent of GEMA :)
What is not wishful is this election ended indeed in a stalemate. There are of course local issues - but UDA did not manage to bury Jubilee completely.
There will be no funeral for Jubilee yet.
This good for Ruto - as UDA badly needed to enter front door of GEMA - not going through the window (PDP/TSP) - but it means he needs more work on Mt Kenya - and this also good to keep Babaman hopeful. Ruto needs Raila to win 2022.
-
You should not tie with retiring dynasty who has openly backed Raila. He was even marketing him in Ukambani. Ruto of course has performed poorly in non-Gema. His biggest threat is NASA (and Jubilee) sticking together especially through BBI. More than kingmaker or katikati candidate.
-
We shall be here hopefully next year. I don't see how a wounded Uhuru can survive the coming onslaught on him - when he will be abandoned by most mt kenya politicians trooping to UDA. The kenyattas have so much to lose. They will negotiate. I think Museveni is working on that :D
NASA - shida tupu - once you're done with Kalonzo (it gonna be hard) - you have maDVD and Weta in western - to bring on board - just so you can equal worse case scenario for RUTO :)
Ruto biggest threat is Raila becoming a King maker (Spoiler) or THEM GOING FOR SECOND ROUND - by splintering the votes - like they did in those by election - where all try to defend their turf against UDA.
UDA winning the coast had them really scared.
That is why Jubilee not dying today is good news for Ruto. I know other folks would love to finish Jubilee or Uhuru. But that will be a mistake. Raila need to be hopeful.
You should not tie with retiring dynasty who has openly backed Raila. He was even marketing him in Ukambani. Ruto of course has performed poorly in non-Gema. His biggest threat is NASA (and Jubilee) sticking together especially through BBI. More than kingmaker or katikati candidate.
-
How do you expect these people to defect en masse?
UDA win in Kiambaa should worry Ruto — Waiguru
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-16-uda-win-in-kiambaa-should-worry-ruto--waiguru/
-
Only the deaf and the blind would be forgiven if they didn't hear or see to Jubilee losses in Muranga, Kiambu, Nyandarua and Nakuru - those string of loses - clearly shows Jubilee is dead.
As of now - Mt kenya east have all abandoned Jubilee. Munya is left and he has run to PNU. Mt kenya east just manufactured some fake excues - but reality is the ground is anti-Jubilee in Meru-Tharaka-Embu - they are trying to hide behind Muturi.
Now let move Mt Kenya west - as we speak nearly all those in RV Kikuyus Mps who had supported Uhuru - have all returned back to Ruto. Waruguru in Laikipia is the last one waiting to join soon.
When it come to Nairobi - nearly all of them are back in hustler nation - and Bishop Wanjiru is incoming governor :)
Kiambu as we speak - out the 11 Mps - I think right now we only have Mwathi, Njomo and I think one woman still holding on.
Muranga Uhuru doing well hapo - I think he still has about 4mps - and Nyeri about 3mps
As for Waiguru - she knows even if she cross over - Ngirici will make mince meat of her. So for her - she is damned either way :) :)
It's like Nakuru's governor - I don't see how Moi illegitimate son will survive.
BOTTOMLINE - We have maybe 10 more defections - otherwise Ruto already has nearly the entire Mt kenya leadership - on the line - because Ruto control the ground game.
It's not the other way round - Uhuru has screwed the game so much - that ALLOWED RUTO THE GROUND GAME.
How do you expect these people to defect en masse?
UDA win in Kiambaa should worry Ruto — Waiguru
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-16-uda-win-in-kiambaa-should-worry-ruto--waiguru/
-
Pundit that story of MPs have crossed over - your earlier spin was only 10 were Kieleweke - until a headcount in parliament. If UDA pulled a 2-1 margin maybe - but this lucklustre performance is bad. They have failed to cross over to UDA impressively. Only Wamuchomba and Lari guy have defected. Warugurus want a local alternative not UDA.
And why are Mt Kenya East hiding behind Muturi - instead of defecting to UDA? Such are the local alternatives that will kill Ruto. Last minute they will back Raila as Kurias and Kiunjuris back Ruto.
Pray BBI stays dead. Otherwise Gema itakuwa shida kubwa sana.
-
Ruto is happy that Raila is hopeful. This is good. We do not want to finish Raila one year to election and give him time to do 2002 again. If everyone was to stampede out of jubilee to UDA - that will kill Raila.
For now let Raila think he has some votes in Mt kenya :) -
Pundit that story of MPs have crossed over - your earlier spin was only 10 were Kieleweke - until a headcount in parliament. If UDA pulled a 2-1 margin maybe - but this lucklustre performance is bad. They have failed to cross over to UDA impressively. Only Wamuchomba and Lari guy have defected. Warugurus want a local alternative not UDA.
And why are Mt Kenya East hiding behind Muturi - instead of defecting to UDA? Such are the local alternatives that will kill Ruto. Last minute they will back Raila as Kurias and Kiunjuris back Ruto.
Pray BBI stays dead. Otherwise Gema itakuwa shida kubwa sana.
-
2002 deal was done in last 3 months. Ruto can also pull kingmaker - tosha Kiunjuri or Kuria :) Anyway it a good delusion that Raila is the best opponent for Ruto - cause he is so beatable.
Ruto is happy that Raila is hopeful. This is good. We do not want to finish Raila one year to election and give him time to do 2002 again. If everyone was to stampede out of jubilee to UDA - that will kill Raila.
For now let Raila think he has some votes in Mt kenya :) -
Pundit that story of MPs have crossed over - your earlier spin was only 10 were Kieleweke - until a headcount in parliament. If UDA pulled a 2-1 margin maybe - but this lucklustre performance is bad. They have failed to cross over to UDA impressively. Only Wamuchomba and Lari guy have defected. Warugurus want a local alternative not UDA.
And why are Mt Kenya East hiding behind Muturi - instead of defecting to UDA? Such are the local alternatives that will kill Ruto. Last minute they will back Raila as Kurias and Kiunjuris back Ruto.
Pray BBI stays dead. Otherwise Gema itakuwa shida kubwa sana.
-
It not delusion; and it not something I just invented now; refer as far back as 2012 - or 2008 - we actually foresaw and have been praying for Raila to face Ruto.
The issue is simple - Some older Mt kenya folks who have issues with Ruto due to Moi memories or PEV - BUT when they see Raila - they forget everything - because they see RUTO as waaay better than Raila. This is how Trump became POTUS - :) Hillary :) or Killary just scares the hell out of many Americans more than Trump.
Raila is making merger with Jubilee. If Jubilee was to be buried completely now - and everyone was to stampede - that would be bad.
Let us have a few like Kuttuny, Ngunjiri and maybe 10 more of that type - making that merge please - and promising Raila heaven on earth.
But we know earth is hard.
2002 deal was done in last 3 months. Ruto can also pull kingmaker - tosha Kiunjuri or Kuria :) Anyway it a good delusion that Raila is the best opponent for Ruto - cause he is so beatable.
-
These people are not about to join UDA
JEREMIAH KIONI: Kiambaa results mean 50% voters ditched hustler camp
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-17-jeremiah-kioni-kiambaa-results-mean-50-voters-ditched-hustler-camp/
-
We shall see in the next few months - the aftermath- obviously - even dying carcass has some life - first it's well known hyenas like Kioni interested in making money to campaign for Jubilee to retain "50%" will move after lions are done - or to campaign for retiring Uhuru:) - yet they were running away from Raila :) and ODM - after that microbes like bacteria will descend on Jubilee. So yes Jubilee still has life - KANU still alive - with some people still feasting on KANU carcass - and others ford-k, narc, pnu. Jubilee may get 10-20Mps next election if Uhuru invest a billion shs on it.
The problem the anti-RUto wing have - they cannot sell Raila - they have no leader (unless Uhuru is not retiring) - and in short they have no game plan. In fact Mt Kenya East dying Jubilee branch is a little more troubling for RUto - if Kiraitu and company - were to coalesce around Muturi - and get some tractions. It's Ruto interest to ensure he doesn't get situation where Mt kenya east and west fallout when he picks a DPORK.
Again, we shall see in the next few months the directions Mt kenya politics - UDA already has most leaders already - I bet even Njama Kariri will first one to go Karen and get his yellow shirt. Anti-Ruto and Raila forces all seem to have hedged all their bets on Uhuru :) - and it could end in tears if Uhuru was to met Ruto tomorrow.
It would something if Jubilee had found a leader in Mt Kenya to take them beyond 2022 - but so far I dont see any such leader - kabogo has gone underground - Kimunya has his foot permanently stuck in mouth - and Munya is interested in Meru and has run to PNU - and who else - Matiangi died in Borabu - is stuck btw one year and join politics maybe through ODM - or stick around in 2022 and eat one more year - I think most of Matiangi crew are going to stick around the carcass that is Uhuru gov - and feast on it for another year until Nov or Dec when new gov will be sworn in.
These people are not about to join UDA
JEREMIAH KIONI: Kiambaa results mean 50% voters ditched hustler camp
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-17-jeremiah-kioni-kiambaa-results-mean-50-voters-ditched-hustler-camp/
-
Believe Kioni at your own peril. In 2013 he was Mudavadis Running mate but still voted for Uhuru.
These people are not about to join UDA
JEREMIAH KIONI: Kiambaa results mean 50% voters ditched hustler camp
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-07-17-jeremiah-kioni-kiambaa-results-mean-50-voters-ditched-hustler-camp/
-
Every River Road analyst knows the Kiambaa & Muguga lucklustre performance is a nightmare for Ruto
Small-margin win in Kiambaa a problem for DP
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/small-margin-win-in-kiambaa-a-problem-for-dp-3476508
-
I would take with a pinch of salt any article written by a Luo Journalist on matters U.D.A. seriously.
Every River Road analyst knows the Kiambaa & Muguga lucklustre performance is a nightmare for Ruto
Small-margin win in Kiambaa a problem for DP
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/small-margin-win-in-kiambaa-a-problem-for-dp-3476508
-
-
Going by the number of times we have been assured Gema and Jubilee laity long shifted to Ruto - these 50-50 outcomes are pleasantly surprising. We were told in 2018 that Kieleweke has 10 MPs - everyone else is Tangatanga. But every time a vote, an impeachment, a BBI or such headcount was done - Ruto numbers were revealed as voodoo. They hanged Waititu, Kindiki, Duale, Sonko - these diehard Ruto supporters always voted for Uhuru & Raila. So strange.
See now - all those places Pundit claims Jubilee lost and UDA won - uwongo mtupu. It's been ties and mixed fortunes just like Kiambaa and Muguga. Before London, Hell's Gate, Kahawa, Juja and Rurii - they hid behind Kibicho, Murathe and dark forces. In Juja they hid behind PEP. Rurii is the only clean win in Gema - 2-1 margin. Muguga and Kiambaa is a tie.
Pundit is telling us the leaders have shifted to UDA. I am not sure how they can move now when they already moved in 2018 :) BBI vote was done in January or Feb? - Ruto lost by landslide in counties and parliament. Yey Ruto badmouths BBI at every turn.
You see Ngunjiri Wambugu is right. The vote exposes Ruto's alleged wave in Mt Kenya as false.
You know Pundit is still hopeful Uhuru is playing Raila and will endorse Ruto in April 2022. All this is an eloborate scheme :)
-
I must admit: Ruto is a propaganda guru. UDA have a vague stand on BBI which they are 100% sure is not a priority. They know BBI is a lethal weapon hence the watermelon disposition. Ruto is decisive and not a Kalonzo fencesitter - this exposes the cowardice and divisions in Tangatanga ala BBI. If BBI is resurrected - this will be a nightmare - as half his team will back it while Duales oppose. Ruto still mumbles incoherently about BBI at every rally.
BBI is as thorny and toxic in Tangatanga as Brexit was in the UK Labor Party. Brexit vagueness handed Labor their worst defeat since the great depression. Ombeni sana.
ANOTHER RUTO LIE: his huge rallies so painstakingly mobilized don't amount to anything. We were wowed with graphics here of mega crowds at Nyachae Stadium and Syokimau or Athi River. That was before UDA's dismal performance in by-elections there. One even if deaf and blind must see Ruto has no magic wand - the only place his dynasty and wheelbarrow lies can almost work is Mt Kenya; - because firstly Uhuru is PORK and can be blamed for the economy, and secondly there is no apparent heir to him. Everywhere else the rallies and lies amount to nothing. Kenya remains genetically tribal.
-
Ruto was keen to get into a contest with Uhuru earlier on - that explain his BBI passive aggression = but now - everyone knows BBI is dead - Robina it is DEAD AS DODO.
As for rallies - Ruto did the same in post 2013 - and Jubilee despite being gov - improved from 50 to 55% - just imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kibaki by his 2nd election was so unpopular - but Ruto had managed to sell Jubilee so much - it improved by whopping 5% - that is like a million votes.
Ruto understand that politics is war of attrition - Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD networks or domain - will not easily give in - Ruto has to try improve the 55 percent to 60 percent - then eventually 65 percent.
It's not a war for lazy people like Raila or Kalonzo - who want to lazy around and come the last minute - and win votes and voters.
Ruto learnt from Moi - you gotta work for this. You got to invest money, time and energy...if you want to be PORK of kenya - unless you're born with silver spoon like Uhuru and everywhere is named Kenyatta.
I must admit: Ruto is a propaganda guru. UDA have a vague stand on BBI which they are 100% sure is not a priority. They know BBI is a lethal weapon hence the watermelon disposition. Ruto is decisive and not a Kalonzo fencesitter - this exposes the cowardice and divisions in Tangatanga ala BBI. If BBI is resurrected - this will be a nightmare - as half his team will back it while Duales oppose. Ruto still mumbles incoherently about BBI at every rally.
BBI is as thorny and toxic in Tangatanga as Brexit was in the UK Labor Party. Brexit vagueness handed Labor their worst defeat since the great depression. Ombeni sana.
ANOTHER RUTO LIE: his huge rallies so painstakingly mobilized don't amount to anything. We were wowed with graphics here of mega crowds at Nyachae Stadium and Syokimau or Athi River. That was before UDA's dismal performance in by-elections there. One even if deaf and blind must see Ruto has no magic wand - the only place his dynasty and wheelbarrow lies can almost work is Mt Kenya; - because firstly Uhuru is PORK and can be blamed for the economy, and secondly there is no apparent heir to him. Everywhere else the rallies and lies amount to nothing. Kenya remains genetically tribal.
-
BBI is dead as dodo... - keep up this prayer. I have been asking you why they rigged Koome since they are so law-abiding - your answer is to tout her FIDA accolades and trust her "integrity." Why is Ruto constantly barking against dead BBI? You equally buffled me recently stating that IEBC crew will be picked on technical competence. You know better.
Yes Ruto does constant donkey work for 5 years - then Raila handshake decapitated his mean machine. All the hard work Ruto has done in Mt Kenya last 3 years is thanks to "lazy" Raila. Even the few Kamba Ruto had stolen - are now gone back to Wiper - thanks to Jubilee anarchy. By the way where is Mvurya - I thought hustler won over Kwale?
What is the use of all the hard work when it gets reset to zero every time? Do you know if BBI resurrects - UDA will collapse!! Because they will not be able to agree on a party position - like Jubilee. I know you wishfully blame Uhuru for all Jubilee woes - but it more complicated than that simplistic argument.
In short the race is wide open 1 year to go - from 55% 3 short years ago - ergo your stories about Ruto genius and hard work amount to nothing.
Ruto was keen to get into a contest with Uhuru earlier on - that explain his BBI passive aggression = but now - everyone knows BBI is dead - Robina it is DEAD AS DODO.
As for rallies - Ruto did the same in post 2013 - and Jubilee despite being gov - improved from 50 to 55% - just imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kibaki by his 2nd election was so unpopular - but Ruto had managed to sell Jubilee so much - it improved by whopping 5% - that is like a million votes.
Ruto understand that politics is war of attrition - Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD networks or domain - will not easily give in - Ruto has to try improve the 55 percent to 60 percent - then eventually 65 percent.
It's not a war for lazy people like Raila or Kalonzo - who want to lazy around and come the last minute - and win votes and voters.
Ruto learnt from Moi - you gotta work for this. You got to invest money, time and energy...if you want to be PORK of kenya - unless you're born with silver spoon like Uhuru and everywhere is named Kenyatta.
-
You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov :) - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.
2) BBI is dead as dodo. Even Baba knows this now.
3) Koome is not the supreme court - she sits as supreme court judge - as an equal. Her role is limited to mostly administrative matters and constituting high court benches...BBI already passed there.
4) Koome to influence SCORK need to get 4 out 7 judges on her side on a particular issue.
5) Somethings cant be helped. If Koome brother kill a person in broad daylight - her sister cannot help him. If BBI is brought in such a condition it is in - it cannot be helped.
BBI is dead as dodo... - keep up this prayer. I have been asking you why they rigged Koome since they are so law-abiding - your answer is to tout her FIDA accolades and trust her "integrity." Why is Ruto constantly barking against dead BBI? You equally buffled me recently stating that IEBC crew will be picked on technical competence. You know better.
Yes Ruto does constant donkey work for 5 years - then Raila handshake decapitated his mean machine. All the hard work Ruto has done in Mt Kenya last 3 years is thanks to "lazy" Raila. Even the few Kamba Ruto had stolen - are now gone back to Wiper - thanks to Jubilee anarchy. By the way where is Mvurya - I thought hustler won over Kwale?
What is the use of all the hard work when it gets reset to zero every time? Do you know if BBI resurrects - UDA will collapse!! Because they will not be able to agree on a party position - like Jubilee. I know you wishfully blame Uhuru for all Jubilee woes - but it more complicated than that simplistic argument.
In short the race is wide open 1 year to go - from 55% 3 short years ago - ergo your stories about Ruto genius and hard work amount to nothing.
Ruto was keen to get into a contest with Uhuru earlier on - that explain his BBI passive aggression = but now - everyone knows BBI is dead - Robina it is DEAD AS DODO.
As for rallies - Ruto did the same in post 2013 - and Jubilee despite being gov - improved from 50 to 55% - just imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kibaki by his 2nd election was so unpopular - but Ruto had managed to sell Jubilee so much - it improved by whopping 5% - that is like a million votes.
Ruto understand that politics is war of attrition - Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD networks or domain - will not easily give in - Ruto has to try improve the 55 percent to 60 percent - then eventually 65 percent.
It's not a war for lazy people like Raila or Kalonzo - who want to lazy around and come the last minute - and win votes and voters.
Ruto learnt from Moi - you gotta work for this. You got to invest money, time and energy...if you want to be PORK of kenya - unless you're born with silver spoon like Uhuru and everywhere is named Kenyatta.
-
You get the 4 judges by adding Koome on top of what you have. Obviously just like here in US - SCOTUS has almost known outcome cause it handles POLITICAL cases. I don't know how you conclude Odunga's 20 rulings cannot ALL be overturned :o - sorry he is just a judge and all those points are in dispute.
Why a compromised CJ and SCORK is so dangerous? Cases at SCORK level are IN DISPUTE - not straightforward debt or murder case that depend on evidence. It is widely published Maraga rulings on 2017 presidential elections and the 2/3 gender rule advisory - were ideologically motivated - rather than legal rationale. Ideological or bias leaning is very serious - I don't even like it myself but it is the reality.
Uhuru or "system" commands loyalty of SCORK by many accounts. They used JSC to line it up.
You have many cases that will be filed by Omtatas and Havis - eg say referendum act, etc - benches will be picked by Koome. Appeals will wind up at SCORK. If Ruto is rigged and runs to SCORK...
You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov :) - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.
2) BBI is dead as dodo. Even Baba knows this now.
3) Koome is not the supreme court - she sits as supreme court judge - as an equal. Her role is limited to mostly administrative matters and constituting high court benches...BBI already passed there.
4) Koome to influence SCORK need to get 4 out 7 judges on her side on a particular issue.
5) Somethings cant be helped. If Koome brother kill a person in broad daylight - her sister cannot help him. If BBI is brought in such a condition it is in - it cannot be helped.
-
This was before Koome rigging
?s=19
-
BBI was given 20-NIl by 5 bench judge - 5 bench is rare bench - normally serious issues are 3 bench - 5 bench is extraordinary - and BBI lost 20-Nil.
Come Court of Appeal - unless Uhuru negotiate for his personal responsibility - it gonna end 7-NIl. No sane judge leave alone SCORK can save BBI - the violations - 20 violations - are obvious to a layman.
Of course SCORK is 7 bench judge. I think majority of judges are intellectual of their own. Ojwang was a Luo and he was not going to just go with Raila. He was a conservative. etc etc.
For 2017 - what killed UhuRuto election was IEBC fumbling - the report from registar - sunk it - its like BBI - even if Koome want to help you - you have to help yourself.
Do not ever think Kooome having worked all this way for his own legacy is your TEA GIRL - just waiting like a school guide for call from statehouse telling her to jump.
You'll be suprised by Koome. Just like Raila was suprised by Mutunga :) - Mutunga had been imprisoned by Moi with Raila and expelled to exile - but when Raila gave him nothing - he gave Raila nothing.
You get the 4 judges by adding Koome on top of what you have. Obviously just like here in US - SCOTUS has almost known outcome cause it handles POLITICAL cases. I don't know how you conclude Odunga's 20 rulings cannot ALL be overturned :o - sorry he is just a judge and all those points are in dispute.
Why a compromised CJ and SCORK is so dangerous? Cases at SCORK level are IN DISPUTE - not straightforward debt or murder case that depend on evidence. It is widely published Maraga rulings on 2017 presidential elections and the 2/3 gender rule advisory - were ideologically motivated - rather than legal rationale. Ideological or bias leaning is very serious - I don't even like it myself but it is the reality.
Uhuru or "system" commands loyalty of SCORK by many accounts. They used JSC to line it up.
You have many cases that will be filed by Omtatas and Havis - eg say referendum act, etc - benches will be picked by Koome. Appeals will wind up at SCORK. If Ruto is rigged and runs to SCORK...
You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov :) - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.
2) BBI is dead as dodo. Even Baba knows this now.
3) Koome is not the supreme court - she sits as supreme court judge - as an equal. Her role is limited to mostly administrative matters and constituting high court benches...BBI already passed there.
4) Koome to influence SCORK need to get 4 out 7 judges on her side on a particular issue.
5) Somethings cant be helped. If Koome brother kill a person in broad daylight - her sister cannot help him. If BBI is brought in such a condition it is in - it cannot be helped.
-
Youre desperate if you're hanging on every tweet you read there. Grand Mullah is on his personal wars with Supreme Court because he ate Uhuru millions and lost the case. SCORK have some of most intelligent judges - if something come 20-nil in 5 bench high court bench - and SCORK overrule it - then that serious indictment on the judiciary. It shows BIG disconnect. Just wait for court of appeal to give you another 7- nil.
Overturning 20-nil is impossible. What you can hope for is maybe 17-3 or something like that - some of the goals to be ruled offside - otherwise the final score remain - BBI is dead.
This was before Koome rigging
?s=19
-
I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.
Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.
You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov :) - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.
-
It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.
Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.
Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.
Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.
Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.
Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent. Then ask Uhuru for top up. You cannot start from top up :)
I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.
Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.
-
I am not sure how you determine margin of loss from bench vs case. 20 rulings by 5 judges... is it 20-nil or 5-nil?
-
It 5- nil times 20. There are 20 issues - and you lose all of them. Judges can choose to give scores different. One judge can give you 18-2, 20-nil, 10-10.
I expect the Court of Appeal will make such interesting decisions - just to show they thought about it - and are bigger boys than high court
Some may go 18-2, 16-4 - but ultimately they cannot overturn all the 20 adversary findings against Uhuru, IEBC, Raila, Assemblies, etc
One mistake - same effect - null and void. Just like Uhuru lost - in 2017 - coz IEBC conceded goals. Uhuru did not rig - but IEBC were so incompetent it became hard to justify it mess.
For example - BBI - IEBC verify signatures in a week - gave kenyans 5 days including weekend - and publish it only on their website. HOW DO YOU CURE THAT. Their own regulation talks of 2 weeks with publishing in newspapers.
BBI promoters do not even both to print their draft in KISWAHILI - HOW DO YOU DEFEND THAT? Kenya constitution clearly say Kiswahili is the national language.
BBI is DEAD AS DODO - completely dead like Jubilee. Almost nothing was done right - 20 violations.
I am not sure how you determine margin of loss from bench vs case. 20 rulings by 5 judges... is it 20-nil or 5-nil?
-
First, no Ruto cannot appoint random Wanjiku as DPORK. In fact he will have to let them square out in UDA primaries to avoid big fallout. Second his runningmate MUST be Gema - which denies him leeway to string Mdvds without ideological somersault. He has boxed himself by rejecting BBI as dynasty project.
Raila ALREADY HAS NASA in his corner. The noises are just positioning. Their strategy is to corner their respective tribal cocoons - so everyone must pretend to run for PORK - to keep Kamba or Luhya hopeful. Worked like a charm in recent by-elections. This is the blunder Kiunjuri fool made - running to be runningmate - which has let lazy Uhuru keep 50% easy. Muturi approach is better. DPORK doesn't excite people so Kalonzo and Mdvd and Muturis will run for PORK until April 2022 - when they will meet at Kasarani or State House or Uhuru Park - and announce BBI lineup.
BBI lineup is well known.
It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.
Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.
Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.
Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.
Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.
Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent.
I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.
Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.
-
Siasa hujui
Before Kiambaa - I would say RUto needed to appoint strong mt kenya candidate like Kiunjuri - who'd prove to GEMA he was not a poddle.
Right now Mt kenya have entered UDA directly - front door - sio backdoor.
They are ready for anything - liwe liwalo - so Ruto can decide to make anybody in Mt kenya DPORK
That is why Kiunjuri should simply fold camp and run to UDA - his OWN PEOPLE HAVE oVERTAKEN HIM - while they were overtaking Uhuru kenyatta,
Politics is dynamic.
In 2007 Kalenjin overtook its leaders and said RAILA TOSHA - Kalenjin were so angry with Kibaki they were looking for his anti-dote - the man Kibaki would hate - and Raila was the man.
Ruto and kalenjin leaders were in Kalonzo corner.
When they saw Kalenjin were ahead - they quickly went and lead them to Raila. Raila of course knew this and let kiburi enter his head...in 2010 by thinking he could go directly to the people.
What happened in Juja was good for Kiunjuri but Kiambaa - UDA entered Mt kenya directly - and Ruto enjoy Mt kenya support DIRECT - no proxy.
Kiunjuri should fold up - Ruto should avoid Kiburi. Mt kenya are so angry with UhuRaila - they do not want to hear about sijui long detour to punish Uhuru-Raila - they want it NOW.
Raila doesnt have NASA'; stop believing in your own propaganda.
Ruto can easily make up with Uhuru; before Kalonzo and MaDVD accept Raila.
First, no Ruto cannot appoint random Wanjiku as DPORK. In fact he will have to let them square out in UDA primaries to avoid big fallout. Second his runningmate MUST be Gema - which denies him leeway to string Mdvds without ideological somersault. He has boxed himself by rejecting BBI as dynasty project.
Raila ALREADY HAS NASA in his corner. The noises are just positioning. Their strategy is to corner their respective tribal cocoons - so everyone must pretend to run for PORK - to keep Kamba or Luhya hopeful. Worked like a charm in recent by-elections. This is the blunder Kiunjuri fool made - running to be runningmate - which has let lazy Uhuru keep 50% easy. Muturi approach is better. DPORK doesn't excite people so Kalonzo and Mdvd and Muturis will run for PORK until April 2022 - when they will meet at Kasarani or State House or Uhuru Park - and announce BBI lineup.
BBI lineup is well known.
It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.
Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.
Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.
Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.
Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.
Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent.
I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.
Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.
-
Pundit - Kalonzo and Oparanya are leading NASA negotiations to share party funds, etc. Despite all the noise about Raila betrayal and gossip about joining Ruto. Next you will hear ODM agree to m-pesa them few millions - and they agree to do joint nominations or consensus on who to be PORK. Everyone will continue to insist they will be Handshake candidate. If you expect Kalonzo to declare he will be VP today you are just another Herman Manyora.
ODM invites registrar to unlock Nasa partners' funds stalemate
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/national/article/2001418519/odm-invites-registrar-to-unlock-nasa-partners-funds-stalemate
-
My friend I have read politics while you were in diapers.
Kalonzo and NASA are just doing what Jubilee Ruto and likes are doing - nominal stuff.
The real negotiation will happen in April next year.
Biggest opportunity all of them see is in Uhuru giving them whatever crumbs in Mt Kenya
Otherwise they know NASA or CORD or whatever is proven and failed expirement
So failed they did not even bother to run after Magara rulling.
They betrayed the supreme court.
Nothing will make NASA run - unless there is a new breakthrough.
Uhuru and BBI were to be the breakthrough.
Uhuru is weakening.
BBI is dead.
Pundit - Kalonzo and Oparanya are leading NASA negotiations to share party funds, etc. Despite all the noise about Raila betrayal and gossip about joining Ruto. Next you will hear ODM agree to m-pesa them few millions - and they agree to do joint nominations or consensus on who to be PORK. Everyone will continue to insist they will be Handshake candidate. If you expect Kalonzo to declare he will be VP today you are just another Herman Manyora.
ODM invites registrar to unlock Nasa partners' funds stalemate
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/national/article/2001418519/odm-invites-registrar-to-unlock-nasa-partners-funds-stalemate
-
Kwesson
1) Why the 50-50 outcomes if people are so angry with Uhuru?
2) Are you saying Ruto can survive on his own if say Kuria, Kiunjuri, Gachagua part ways with him?
NASA is not at war. But you can believe what you want. Ruto is UNABLE to nail any of them - despite lots of effort, peddling rumors, cash, etc.
Siasa hujui
Before Kiambaa - I would say RUto needed to appoint strong mt kenya candidate like Kiunjuri - who'd prove to GEMA he was not a poddle.
Right now Mt kenya have entered UDA directly - front door - sio backdoor.
They are ready for anything - liwe liwalo - so Ruto can decide to make anybody in Mt kenya DPORK
That is why Kiunjuri should simply fold camp and run to UDA - his OWN PEOPLE HAVE oVERTAKEN HIM - while they were overtaking Uhuru kenyatta,
Politics is dynamic.
In 2007 Kalenjin overtook its leaders and said RAILA TOSHA - Kalenjin were so angry with Kibaki they were looking for his anti-dote - the man Kibaki would hate - and Raila was the man.
Ruto and kalenjin leaders were in Kalonzo corner.
When they saw Kalenjin were ahead - they quickly went and lead them to Raila. Raila of course knew this and let kiburi enter his head...in 2010 by thinking he could go directly to the people.
What happened in Juja was good for Kiunjuri but Kiambaa - UDA entered Mt kenya directly - and Ruto enjoy Mt kenya support DIRECT - no proxy.
Kiunjuri should fold up - Ruto should avoid Kiburi. Mt kenya are so angry with UhuRaila - they do not want to hear about sijui long detour to punish Uhuru-Raila - they want it NOW.
Raila doesnt have NASA'; stop believing in your own propaganda.
Ruto can easily make up with Uhuru; before Kalonzo and MaDVD accept Raila.
First, no Ruto cannot appoint random Wanjiku as DPORK. In fact he will have to let them square out in UDA primaries to avoid big fallout. Second his runningmate MUST be Gema - which denies him leeway to string Mdvds without ideological somersault. He has boxed himself by rejecting BBI as dynasty project.
Raila ALREADY HAS NASA in his corner. The noises are just positioning. Their strategy is to corner their respective tribal cocoons - so everyone must pretend to run for PORK - to keep Kamba or Luhya hopeful. Worked like a charm in recent by-elections. This is the blunder Kiunjuri fool made - running to be runningmate - which has let lazy Uhuru keep 50% easy. Muturi approach is better. DPORK doesn't excite people so Kalonzo and Mdvd and Muturis will run for PORK until April 2022 - when they will meet at Kasarani or State House or Uhuru Park - and announce BBI lineup.
BBI lineup is well known.
It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.
Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.
Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.
Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.
Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.
Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent.
I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.
Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.
-
1) Politics is local - Kiambaa-Muguga is 50 percent local -50 percent UhuRuto. Jubilee having had a string of losses tried to get strong candidates. Kariri himself was Ruto man but they gave him party ticket and millions.
So to be on safe side - just assume Ruto won 75 percent - and Uhuru got 25 percent on his home county. Now if you put Raila in the mix - make that 5 percent - improvement from usual 2 percent.
I will study the figures in depth - to remove local issues - diaspora - kiambu is mini-nairobi - and see if there is a trend - considering opinion polls have died.
2) Yes if UDA catches fires - Ruto can appoint anybody in Mt kenya - and any complainant will be seen as sore loser - obviously Ruto is smart enough to not to do that. But i think Kiunjuri TSP and Kuria PDP will be force to merge with UDA. They can no longer negoitate with UDA as equals - it undo all UDA efforts to strongly couple with mt kenya.
3) I don't believe what I want. The reality my friend is NASA is dead as dodo...together with BBI. NASA died long time ago - what keeps them awake is Uhuru...hating Ruto..and each of them hoping Uhuru will come through for them.
Kwesson
1) Why the 50-50 outcomes if people are so angry with Uhuru?
2) Are you saying Ruto can survive on his own if say Kuria, Kiunjuri, Gachagua part ways with him?
NASA is not at war. But you can believe what you want. Ruto is UNABLE to nail any of them - despite lots of effort, peddling rumors, cash, etc.