Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Gikomba_Hawker on July 15, 2021, 02:41:51 AM
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Jubilee, UDA wait for Kiambaa vote results with bated breath
https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/central/2021-07-14-jubilee-uda-wait-for-kiambaa-vote-results-with-bated-breath/
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Yes, this is the defining moment for Mt Kenya politics;
Will the Mt Kenya nation cross the Rubicon river?
We have about 10 hours to find out.
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ATI defining. I know a lot of people in kiambaa who won't participate. Hii ni local useless competition
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This culmination of long war that saw battles in Muranga, Nyandarua, Kiambu, Nakuru, Naivasha, and now this is the moment of truth for you and Raila and Uhuru...and of course for Ruto.
This is the war for political soul of mt kenya - hustler nation versus dynasties - if both Muguga and Kiambaa go UDA - Ruto can measure statehouse drapes unless he dies before 2022.
ATI defining. I know a lot of people in kiambaa who won't participate. Hii ni local useless competition
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Appears Jubilee will win with 60%,use of state machinery, coercion and some level of UDA underestimating cost them win. From my own intelligence sources.
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okay just in time for results;
First two results look tight
https://twitter.com/OleItumbi
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Look like Jubilee has strong support in Gachie-Ruaka - where the candidates come from - and Wanjiku deep inside the constitutuencies - CIANDA - where he comes from.
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very tight race
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Tight race
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Still very tight
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6WRImnXEAgeVSO?format=jpg&name=large
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Kiambaa-Considering the polls are already randomly sampled; UDA look likely to win by 55 against 45 percentage. Njama Kariri of Jubilee is strong candidate - and for him to lose is strong message that it doesn't matter - as long as you're with Uhuru/Jubilee - you're dead.
Muguga - still early - Jubilee has early lead.
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41 polling stations - yeah percentages unlikely to change - according to NASA rigging algorithm propaganda - when actually it's 'natural' behaviour of randomly sampled population and basis for opinion polling/surveys.
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Look like Muguga has flipped to UDA...
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Yes this unlikely to change
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Look like both Muguga and Kiambaa still "tight"- but at half way - UDA have bagged this.
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Very tight ; Jubilee has lead in Muguga; the difference in Kiambaa is 200 votes
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Very tight in Muguga as we approach 2/3 - the lead in Kiambaa for UDA is now probably unassailable
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Still very tight
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Very tight in Muguga.
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5 more to go for Muguga
Muguga Ward
24 polling stations out of 29
Kamau Thumbi - UDA - 52%3547/6767
Joseph Githinji - Jubilee - 47%3204/6767
Kiambaa Constituency
111 polling stations out of 154
John Njuguna - UDA - 53%15955/30259
Kariri Njama - Jubilee - 47%14277/302
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State machinery, coercion vs Hustler very interesting if government can't win. Baba should just retire. Jubilee pulled all the stops.
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Ruto has to be careful not to finish Baba this early - so he should go slow on Mt kenya kiasi - we need Raila on the ballot. With Baba we have predictable election with a predictable loser. If Baba goes rogue and does a Tosha - we could get serious problem.
The problem I see if Mt kenya all stampede back to Ruto - Baba may decide to go rogue! and say Tosha like he did in 2002 - when Uhuru had it on the bag.
So Jubilee wing B should remain with Baba until June 2022 when he present his papers. Shida nobody want to be a causaulty
State machinery, coercion vs Hustler very interesting if government can't win. Baba should just retire. Jubilee pulled all the stops.
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Ruto has to be careful not to finish Baba this early - so he should go slow on Mt kenya kiasi - we need Raila on the ballot. With Baba we have predictable election with a predictable loser. If Baba goes rogue and does a Tosha - we could get serious problem.
State machinery, coercion vs Hustler very interesting if government can't win. Baba should just retire. Jubilee pulled all the stops.
Very true baba must be in ballot 22 to ensure a first round win for mzito.
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Ruto only secret card is DPORK from Mt kenya - that I believe he will unveil in last day of June 11th - so Kabila Mbili propaganda doesnt get a lot of time now.
Raila secret card is not running. That is his plan C.
Plan A is to run and try get to 50%. Plan B is to deny Ruto 50% in round 1 and go head to head in second round.
Very true baba must be in ballot 22 to ensure a first round win for mzito.
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As a person who believes in the power of the people, I have to congratulate UDA for their win and also Jubilee for winning Muguga. There was nothing overwhelming from both sides, only separated by a few votes but given that Jubilee was supported by the state machinery, I give a slight edge to UDA.
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Look like it very tight with Uhuru pulling all the stops to win..very good results as we need Raila and crew in town.
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Look like it very tight with Uhuru pulling all the stops to win..very good results as we need Raila and crew in town.
Tight for what, To show Uhuru still has formidabke forces. This is true defeniantion of absurd.
Truth of the matter is Mt Kenya has been boting agaist raila since 07. It wont change any time soon.
Uhuru commamds zilch
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Raila and crew are hopefully that in 2022 they can get top up - 5% - after they stitch back NASA :) and Uhuru endorse Raila; both are hopeful scenarios now; Ruto need Raila to run hard;
Tight for what, To show Uhuru still has formidabke forces. This is true defeniantion of absurd.
Truth of the matter is Mt Kenya has been boting agaist raila since 07. It wont change any time soon.
Uhuru commamds zilch
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Looks like 50-50 basically. Yet Uhuru and Jubilee are openly backing Raila against Ruto. Everyone and their granny knows this open secret. UDA did their best to bill this as UDA vs ODM.
Noway, Njuri and Pundit wacheni hadithi. This is a VERY BAD result for Ruto. Dying Jubilee should be dead by now. But instead we see Gema laity have split 50-50.
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You are welcome to save face... but your hustler has LOST Muguga and barely won (by 1%) in Kiambaa. To Jubilee who are in merger talks with ODM.
UhuRuto 99% is going 50-50. Handshake has endeared Baba who will bag big slice. NASA sticks together your boy is dead.
Raila and crew are hopefully that in 2022 they can get top up - 5% - after they stitch back NASA :) and Uhuru endorse Raila; both are hopeful scenarios now; Ruto need Raila to run hard;
Tight for what, To show Uhuru still has formidabke forces. This is true defeniantion of absurd.
Truth of the matter is Mt Kenya has been boting agaist raila since 07. It wont change any time soon.
Uhuru commamds zilch
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It ended in a stalemate but there are local issues involved, jubilee pulling all the rigging stops and secondly the implications will be clear in few months; Let see how many Mps and leaders want to take a chance with a dying Jubilee - I think very few.
Looks like 50-50 basically. Yet Uhuru and Jubilee are openly backing Raila against Ruto. Everyone and their granny knows this open secret. UDA did their best to bill this as UDA vs ODM.
Noway, Njuri and Pundit wacheni hadithi. This is a VERY BAD result for Ruto. Dying Jubilee should be dead by now. But instead we see Gema laity have split 50-50.
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Sure Raila now has 50% of GEMA :) That some crazy thinking if any; But as long as Raila is on the ballot; Ruto sleepwalk to PORK. The next few months - I see Jubilee remaining with former ODM members like Ngunjiri - and otherwise most are bailing out.
You are welcome to save face... but your hustler has LOST Muguga and barely won (by 1%) in Kiambaa. To Jubilee who are in merger talks with ODM.
UhuRuto 99% is going 50-50. Handshake has endeared Baba who will bag big slice. NASA sticks together your boy is dead.
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Raila-Uhuru handshake plan is to give Gema PM post... this 50-50 is Uhuru with Raila baggage. Gema in the end will vote for their own. Ruto DPORK (Kiunjuri) vs Raila PM (PK). It will not be bare Ruto vs Raila.
Raila has not bothered to venture Mt Kenya unlike omnipresent Ruto. Save for few trips with PK, Kamanda, Kanini or Kiraitu - Raila has left Ruto to fight with Uhuru. Ruto has shown his only card (Gema DPORK) and it is 50-50. Raila has not played his card -he is waiting for Musinga and Koome.
People know Uhuru is retiring and backing Raila. 50-50 split is the reality. Your "Jubilee laity are with Ruto" boils down to this.
Sure Raila now has 50% of GEMA :) That some crazy thinking if any; But as long as Raila is on the ballot; Ruto sleepwalk to PORK. The next few months - I see Jubilee remaining with former ODM members like Ngunjiri - and otherwise most are bailing out.
You are welcome to save face... but your hustler has LOST Muguga and barely won (by 1%) in Kiambaa. To Jubilee who are in merger talks with ODM.
UhuRuto 99% is going 50-50. Handshake has endeared Baba who will bag big slice. NASA sticks together your boy is dead.
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Your understanding of politics is pedestrian as usual - Jubilee/Uhuru has definitely managed to save face here - but translating that to ODM's Raila is crazy as it comes. But like I earlier said - this was the final in many other by-elections and Ruto's UDA is doing great.
As for Ruto - I dont think he imagines a situation where Mt Kenya would join UDA directly - that is kind of coupling I could not see it.This is biggest victory in the polls - I was expecting Mt kenya would go into their own parties - and negotiate with Ruto ala Kiunjuri TSP style.
As of now, Ruto has offered Mt Kenya nothing but they are willing to join UDA - BURE :)
This having ended in stalemate - the battle continues in the next few months - I expect to see more hemorrhage from Jubilee to UDA
Raila-Uhuru handshake plan is to give Gema PM post... this 50-50 is Uhuru with Raila baggage. Gema in the end will vote for their own. Ruto DPORK (Kiunjuri) vs Raila PM (PK). It will not be bare Ruto vs Raila.
Raila has not bothered to venture Mt Kenya unlike omnipresent Ruto. Save for few trips with PK, Kamanda, Kanini or Kiraitu - Raila has left Ruto to fight with Uhuru. Ruto has shown his only card (Gema DPORK) and it is 50-50. Raila has not played his card -he is waiting for Musinga and Koome.
People know Uhuru is retiring and backing Raila. 50-50 split is the reality. Your "Jubilee laity are with Ruto" boils down to this.
Sure Raila now has 50% of GEMA :) That some crazy thinking if any; But as long as Raila is on the ballot; Ruto sleepwalk to PORK. The next few months - I see Jubilee remaining with former ODM members like Ngunjiri - and otherwise most are bailing out.
You are welcome to save face... but your hustler has LOST Muguga and barely won (by 1%) in Kiambaa. To Jubilee who are in merger talks with ODM.
UhuRuto 99% is going 50-50. Handshake has endeared Baba who will bag big slice. NASA sticks together your boy is dead.
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As usual your hubris and self-importance will kill you. You are not an oracle just an unrefined Mutahi Ngunyi or Herman Manyora. Punguza kiburi.
Ruto has camped in Mt Kenya full 3 years, labelled Uhuru dynasty and narrated all his bottom-up. He is giving hustlers 30B - 10% of budget. This dismal 50% is his best show he has nothing left.
Let see your few months. I don't see mass defections to UDA with this lucklustre performance. If BBI gets back in play expect UDA to face serious headache in Gema and everywhere except maybe in native URP base.
Your understanding of politics is pedestrian as usual - Jubilee/Uhuru has definitely managed to save face here - but translating that to ODM's Raila is crazy as it comes. But like I earlier said - this was the final in many other by-elections and Ruto's UDA is doing great.
As for Ruto - I dont think he imagines a situation where Mt Kenya would join UDA directly - that is kind of coupling I could not see it.This is biggest victory in the polls - I was expecting Mt kenya would go into their own parties - and negotiate with Ruto ala Kiunjuri TSP style.
As of now, Ruto has offered Mt Kenya nothing but they are willing to join UDA - BURE :)
This having ended in stalemate - the battle continues in the next few months - I expect to see more hemorrhage from Jubilee to UDA
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I find it very insulting to be compared to a fool like Manyora. Mutahi Ngunyi at least is intelligent.
The rest of your wishful thinking we will find out soon. August 20nd is about a month - BBI dies - you hitch into Supreme Court :) - and then we will hear you go nuts on how CJ Martha will save BBI :) - for 2022 COMBO :)
Anyway, I think there is a lot credit that should go to Ruto - because if you think he has done great - then indeed he has - despite the entire gov machinery against him for all those four years - Uhuru as pork - and all the stops :) :) :) they have pulled here - I bet even NASA tribes in Kiambaa have really helped Uhuru here - in places near Nairobi like Ruaka and Gachie - I see Jubilee did fairly well - and poorly in deep rural areas (CLUE - this how we refine MOASS)
Anyway, Ruto told you to wait for November or so - when many Ruto supporters who have been afraid of Uhuru gov machinery (DCI, KRA, etc) will come out.
For me the biggest risk of a big Ruto win here - was Jubilee dying this early - Raila coming to realization that 2022 is gone - and Raila becoming a KING MAKER. I am glad this did not happen.
Burying Jubilee now is not good - for strategic reason - we still need Jubilee limping along - until it transfers all it's mess to ODM in a merger :) :)
As usual your hubris and self-importance will kill you. You are not an oracle just an unrefined Mutahi Ngunyi or Herman Manyora. Punguza kiburi.
Ruto has camped in Mt Kenya full 3 years, labelled Uhuru dynasty and narrated all his bottom-up. He is giving hustlers 30B - 10% of budget. This dismal 50% is his best show he has nothing left.
Let see your few months. I don't see mass defections to UDA with this lucklustre performance. If BBI gets back in play expect UDA to face serious headache in Gema and everywhere except maybe in native URP base.
Your understanding of politics is pedestrian as usual - Jubilee/Uhuru has definitely managed to save face here - but translating that to ODM's Raila is crazy as it comes. But like I earlier said - this was the final in many other by-elections and Ruto's UDA is doing great.
As for Ruto - I dont think he imagines a situation where Mt Kenya would join UDA directly - that is kind of coupling I could not see it.This is biggest victory in the polls - I was expecting Mt kenya would go into their own parties - and negotiate with Ruto ala Kiunjuri TSP style.
As of now, Ruto has offered Mt Kenya nothing but they are willing to join UDA - BURE :)
This having ended in stalemate - the battle continues in the next few months - I expect to see more hemorrhage from Jubilee to UDA
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Yes Raila playing kingmaker could happen if BBI dies and Ruto gets an unassailable lead. This is not the case at all for now. I think you are very wrong to overrate Ruto or underrate Raila. Jubilee vs NASA was 53 to 47. With 99% Gema voting Uhuruto. This split should trouble you if you are not Manyora.
Raila has more cards than Ruto. Ruto has DPORK? Kikuyu already know it is theirs - they feel entitled for supporting an alien - and your boy has no wiggle room to string non-Gema without embracing BBI-ish lineup of PM, etc. Even Weta does not want to be Duale or Kimunya. Second, hustler vs dynasty has run its course without a coherent rebuttle yet UDA was badly floored in non-Gema. Bottom-up PONZI SCHEME will be plagiarized and outmatched - Raila photocopy is called Rural Regeneration or something :) It easy to say I will allocate 30B or xyz to youth or poor folk - but much harder to craft a credible powersharing formula like BBI.
Pray very had for BBI to stay dead. Otherwise if it election combo as I expect - your fake hero has slim chance.
I find it very insulting to be compared to a fool like Manyora. Mutahi Ngunyi at least is intelligent.
The rest of your wishful thinking we will find out soon. August 20nd is about a month - BBI dies - you hitch into Supreme Court :) - and then we will hear you go nuts on how CJ Martha will save BBI :) - for 2022 COMBO :)
Anyway, I think there is a lot credit that should go to Ruto - because if you think he has done great - then indeed he has - despite the entire gov machinery against him for all those four years - Uhuru as pork - and all the stops :) :) :) they have pulled here - I bet even NASA tribes in Kiambaa have really helped Uhuru here - in places near Nairobi like Ruaka and Gachie - I see Jubilee did fairly well - and poorly in deep rural areas.
Anyway, Ruto told you to wait for November or so - when many Ruto supporters who have been afraid of Uhuru gov machinery (DCI, KRA, etc) will come out.
For me the biggest risk of a big Ruto win here - was Jubilee dying this early - Raila coming to realization that 2022 is gone - and Raila becoming a KING MAKER. I am glad this did not happen.
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You're funny. As now the cards everyone get dealt are the SAME. You have this wierd thinking that Raila has 20 BBI positions including CS - and RUto doesn't.
If BBI doesnt come alive - all the players will be dealt the same CARDs. PORK, DPORK, Parliament positions, Cabinet and that is all.
If BBI happens - all the players get all the many more cards. Why would someone accept to be CS when Ruto will be offering them say DPM?
The constitution is the board including all the cards.
Most of deals will happen in April-May-June -and as much as you think Ruto has nobody - he is probably talking to all of them - bar Raila.
What is important is to get to May next year when you are strong - for Ruto obviously if he enters with Kamatusa plus somalis and huge portion of GEMA - he will be the guy people will want to make a deal - but Ruto obviously has already reserved best position for GEMA.
For Raila - yes he is proven 40 percent guy - when packed - but he yet to bridge 50 percent. And he literally must bring back NASA - before may - and try negotiate for extra 10 percent he would need.
Yes Raila playing kingmaker could happen if BBI dies and Ruto gets an unassailable lead. This is not the case at all for now. I think you are very wrong to overrate Ruto or underrate Raila. Jubilee vs NASA was 53 to 47. With 99% Gema voting Uhuruto. This split should trouble you if you are not Manyora.
Raila has more cards than Ruto. Ruto has DPORK? Kikuyu already know it is theirs - they feel entitled for supporting an alien - and your boy has no wiggle room to string non-Gema without embracing BBI-ish lineup of PM, etc. Even Weta does not want to be Duale or Kimunya. Second, hustler vs dynasty has run its course without a coherent rebuttle yet UDA was badly floored in non-Gema. Bottom-up PONZI SCHEME will be plagiarized and outmatched - Raila photocopy is called Rural Regeneration or something :) It easy to say I will allocate 30B or xyz to youth or poor folk - but much harder to craft a credible powersharing formula like BBI.
Pray very had for BBI to stay dead. Otherwise if it election combo as I expect - your fake hero has slim chance.
I find it very insulting to be compared to a fool like Manyora. Mutahi Ngunyi at least is intelligent.
The rest of your wishful thinking we will find out soon. August 20nd is about a month - BBI dies - you hitch into Supreme Court :) - and then we will hear you go nuts on how CJ Martha will save BBI :) - for 2022 COMBO :)
Anyway, I think there is a lot credit that should go to Ruto - because if you think he has done great - then indeed he has - despite the entire gov machinery against him for all those four years - Uhuru as pork - and all the stops :) :) :) they have pulled here - I bet even NASA tribes in Kiambaa have really helped Uhuru here - in places near Nairobi like Ruaka and Gachie - I see Jubilee did fairly well - and poorly in deep rural areas.
Anyway, Ruto told you to wait for November or so - when many Ruto supporters who have been afraid of Uhuru gov machinery (DCI, KRA, etc) will come out.
For me the biggest risk of a big Ruto win here - was Jubilee dying this early - Raila coming to realization that 2022 is gone - and Raila becoming a KING MAKER. I am glad this did not happen.
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Pundit you are wrong about BBI. How will Ruto have same deal when it election-referendum combo? - unless he embrace BBI and complicate dynasty propaganda. BBI is so late - and by SCORK ruling - will be time-barred - so it will be bundled as ballot 7 - yes-no. Because of gender 1/3 cannot wait - even IEBC has justification to hold referendum - you cannot hold an election knowing outcome will be unconstitutional parliament.
I think you haven't analyzed BBI as trojan - there is a reason why Ruto is watermelon but continues to bash katiba amendment. He is very scared of BBI.
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BBI is dead as dodo. The violations just too many. Nobody can resurrect something with 20 stab wounds on all the vital organs. Not even Martha Koome - assuming she was only judge to decide on this.
Obviously 50 percent threshold - makes BBI like arrangment a must. Ruto is interested in BBI in that sense. In 2013 - they had some BBI kind of thing - with Ngilu. In 2017 - Jubilee made deal with 13 parties - including Kiraitu and Lusakas.
BBI or No BBI - Ruto will cut deals to share power. 50 percent sio rahisi. The only thing is negotiation- that Mt Kenya have DPORK and 50 percent - the rest Ruto will negotiate - for max of 3 cabinet CS . Ruto is trying to sell other positions like Chief Minister, Speakers of National assembly, Majority Leader - and the CSes.
So BBI iko - you do not need constitution - unless you want fancy titles like Prime Minister instead of Majority Leader (the power is the same) - otherwise Ruto was DPORK in 2013 but really co-president.
Heck you can even create law with executive orders uhuru style - and appoint Matiangi a prime minister :) without saying so.
Power sharing and Coalition in Kenya politics is a reality thanks to 50 plus one in country where largest tribes can barely get 15 percent.
Pundit you are wrong about BBI. How will Ruto have same deal when it election-referendum combo? - unless he embrace BBI and complicate dynasty propaganda. BBI is so late - and by SCORK ruling - will be time-barred - so it will be bundled as ballot 7 - yes-no. Because of gender 1/3 cannot wait - even IEBC has justification to hold referendum - you cannot hold an election knowing outcome will be unconstitutional parliament.
I think you haven't analyzed BBI as trojan - there is a reason why Ruto is watermelon but continues to bash katiba amendment. He is very scared of BBI.
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Yet Kalozo, Mdvd, Weta - even Oparanya - continue to distance themselves from Ruto. Kalonzo says Wiper is incompatible with wheelbarrow - despite ODM open madharao. It because they know BBI is solid MOU - while Kenya has loong history of betrayals and backstabbings. Who would settle for Ruto paper MOU - word of mouth - while BBI is actual katiba amendment that make them MP and then DPM or CS - with other goodies that make it so sellable.
Unless BBI die - you seem to have internalized Ngugi-Odunga "eternity clause" madness - Ruto has a rough tide coming. GM Ahmednassir has told you Uhuru has friendly SCORK - ignore Uhuru schemes at your own peril.
BBI is dead as dodo. The violations just too many. Nobody can resurrect something with 20 stab wounds on all the vital organs. Not even Martha Koome - assuming she was only judge to decide on this.
Obviously 50 percent threshold - makes BBI like arrangment a must. Ruto is interested in BBI in that sense. In 2013 - they had some BBI kind of thing - with Ngilu. In 2017 - Jubilee made deal with 13 parties - including Kiraitu and Lusakas.
BBI or No BBI - Ruto will cut deals to share power. 50 percent sio rahisi. The only thing is negotiation- that Mt Kenya have DPORK and 50 percent - the rest Ruto will negotiate - for max of 3 cabinet CS . Ruto is trying to sell other positions like Chief Minister, Speakers of National assembly, Majority Leader - and the CSes.
So BBI iko - you do not need constitution - unless you want fancy titles like Prime Minister instead of Majority Leader (the power is the same) - otherwise Ruto was DPORK in 2013 but really co-president.
Heck you can even create law with executive orders uhuru style - and appoint Matiangi a prime minister :) without saying so.
Power sharing and Coalition in Kenya politics is a reality thanks to 50 plus one in country where largest tribes can barely get 15 percent.
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No, part of the reason, Ruto and company voted No and wanted all the issues finalized, was because this cok2010 is almost impossible to ammend :).BBI sahau. I have said long before BBI - during OKOA kenya days - just how difficult it is to ammend this katiba.
It like American Constitution - it's not easy to ammend it. It just not the basic structure - and it also how difficult the process is - imagine going through all the hops to ammend ONLY ONE CLAUSE.
Now going to your funny reasoning - Ruto is DPORK - and his power was handed over to Matiangi through a gazette notice.
BBI changes nothing. PORK will remain PORK. He can decide to have Prime Minister who drinks tea. It's like Deputy Governors - some of them are even unlucky they get served tea less sugar by their governors.
Politics is about trust.
Now why are they not interested in Ruto. Ruto has a deal with Mt kenya already. You're coming to Ruto to take crumbs. There are 3 CS positions essentially - speaker of parliament - and majority leadership - and maybe positions.
Ruto doesnt intend to change Jubilee winning combination....so 1/3 is reserved...obviously it doesnt appeal to Kalonzo or Madvd or Raila.
Finally coalition will be decided in April-June - for now - treat any coalition as stories.
Most will be ironed out just days before deadline in June 10 - 2022.
Yet Kalozo, Mdvd, Weta - even Oparanya - continue to distance themselves from Ruto. Kalonzo says Wiper is incompatible with wheelbarrow - despite ODM open madharao. It because they know BBI is solid MOU - while Kenya has loong history of betrayals and backstabbings. Who would settle for Ruto paper MOU - word of mouth - while BBI is actual katiba amendment that make them MP and then DPM or CS - with other goodies that make it so sellable.
Unless BBI die - you seem to have internalized Ngugi-Odunga "eternity clause" madness - Ruto has a rough tide coming. GM Ahmednassir has told you Uhuru has friendly SCORK - ignore Uhuru schemes at your own peril.