What we have witnessed in the by-elections in Bonchari and Juja is an abuse of police powers and an arrogant display of IMPUNITY by a few overzealous and bellicose government functionaries.
— Raila Odinga (@RailaOdinga) May 19, 2021
Nice showing by UDA, Congrats to ANC and Ford Kenya. They went for it all out and as they said their political life depended on it.
Now one thing with a By election , the matrix are different and it cant be used as barometer to measure political outcome of a general election.
1. By election voter turn out is usually low in most cases below 50%
2.The tactic which was successful in Malindi 2016 by elections and Kibra by elections of using violence to rig elections is now universally acceptable .
3.Its easier to fund by elections and bribe people to vote for you . Only Ruto and Raila have the money muscle to do that.
4.Based on available Data Most By elections is always won by the previous holding parties, relatives or individuals .
All said and done , Its very important to Keep Raila and his supporters hope, Wentagulas and Mudavadis tactic of attacting Raila showed they are their own people but its Railas supporters who are celebrating more than Wentagulas/Mudavadis. Fact Remains if Raila is not on the ballot in 2022 Ruto will have problems.
And for the first time since Mois era we have seen that Government Machinery is being used politically. The only way to deter this is Ruto should go straight away for the heads of the Civil/Public service , warn them that whatever the case they need to be neutral and if they try to side come 2022 they will be on their own. We should see more of court cases against Matiangis /Kibichos . He should collaborate more with activists and use the courts for expediency .
I see Raila the enabler and facilitator of so called deep state..aka provincial administration and police has woken up...the violent rigging has been meted on hustler nation everywhere starting with kibra
..but Ruto had deftly pushed on.
This violence will lead to Uhurus administration seing itself in ICC.
They tried to use same tactics in Malulu and Matungu of using intimidation, voter bribery and planned violence. This time it didnt work out.
Uhuru has been exposed butt naked. If I were him would rethink refrendumn and finish my term Kibaki style. Its never too late.
I mean Uhuru lost 97 MP election and 2002 Presidential elections gracefully accepted and moved on awaiting the next time.
Why soil such a C.V. He used this as to show the world he is not power hungry during ICC trials. Why he is going to these lengths no one can understand , raises more questions
How will ICC come in here when it was blocked by all means possinble from investigating the 2007/2008 political instigated violence?
Same people who castrated ICC in Kenya now want it to intervene in petty political issues.
If people kill each other - they have no option but come. I think Nowayaha is alluding to brazen rigging gone bad like 2007 leading to another progrom. Remember Raila already stretched in 2017 by swearing himself in. Now imagine election where everyone swear themselves the winner and you start thinking civil war.
Who will kill each other? Kalejin kill Luo for Ruto or who else?
Sometimes I am surprised at what level of desperation being expressed on this forum. Come 2022 and Raila looses the election, Luo Nyanza will just continue like nothing ever happened. The only fanatics for the presidency are found in RV. The rest of the country will be peaceful as ever.
Rv is largest province and the center of kenya political gravity - yes if war stars there - it will be felt almost everywhere - except only North Eastern - that it doesn't bother - and Somalia - otherwise RV borders all the previous 7 provinces and 4 countries.
Tribe wise - which seem your interest - RV cosmopolitan nature - means any war there will be national war.
I have always mentioned to you, your war threats in RV will be only felt in RV. Will a Kikuyu in Kiambu fight a Luo in Thika for the sake of Ruto presidency?
The only people who can fight in RV are Kikuyus and Kalejins. The rest will be spectators as their numbers in that area are minimal.
Let those two groups fight in RV for what ever reason and the rest of us will watch from the sidelines.Rv is largest province and the center of kenya political gravity - yes if war stars there - it will be felt almost everywhere - except only North Eastern - that it doesn't bother - and Somalia - otherwise RV borders all the previous 7 provinces and 4 countries.
Tribe wise - which seem your interest - RV cosmopolitan nature - means any war there will be national war.
There at least equal number of Luhyas in RV as Kikuyus. Tranzoia has nearly a million people - with more than half being Luhyas - Nandi has nearly a million - with Luhyas now approaching 30%. Uasin Gishu has nearly a million with Luhyas approaching 15%. Nakuru has 5% Luhyas.
So if you do the maths - Luhyas has a million of it's people in RV. If war was to break out - and Luhyas were to be kicked out - it will lead to serious problem for your people.
You're just forgetful because 2007 - warriors di not touch you - like they did in 1992 - because we were in one ODM team together.
This time round - Kikuyus will probably be smilling as they will likely vote Ruto- so warrior will likely not touch them - but will vent their anger on your people.
Kikuyus, Luhyas, Gusii,Luos - in that order - stand the most to lose in war in rift valley - a war that will DEFINITELY come if Ruto was rigged brazenly - and anybody deemed to have supported the rigging will be punished
Has it ever occured to you, that only you threaten other people with war?
2022 elections will come and go. No matter what the results are and as usual they will be manipulated like previous occassions 2007, 2013 and 2017 Kenya will still be there and your Luhya neighbours in RV will stay put. None will be kicked out of where and believe me it is not only the Kalejin who have the monopoly of violence.
Wake up to reality. The Nandis will vent their anger on Luhyas - if Luhya were to support Pro-rigging machine - just like Kipsigis will do the same to Gusii.
If you have forgotten - read Akiwumi report.
Luo, Luhya, Kamba, Somali, Kikuyu etc will support whom they want despite of your threats.
You supported rigging machine before in 2013 and 2017. Did you bear the consequences?
Am sure you believed rigging machine will always work for your side. I always mentioned to you to preach for transparent election process. You might end up being a victim of a rigged process.Wake up to reality. The Nandis will vent their anger on Luhyas - if Luhya were to support Pro-rigging machine - just like Kipsigis will do the same to Gusii.
If you have forgotten - read Akiwumi report.
The reality is not many kalenjin live in luhyaland - while Luhyas live amongst. I speak as pundit.
Personally show me where I have ever supported RIGGING.Luo, Luhya, Kamba, Somali, Kikuyu etc will support whom they want despite of your threats.
You supported rigging machine before in 2013 and 2017. Did you bear the consequences?
Am sure you believed rigging machine will always work for your side. I always mentioned to you to preach for transparent election process. You might end up being a victim of a rigged process.Wake up to reality. The Nandis will vent their anger on Luhyas - if Luhya were to support Pro-rigging machine - just like Kipsigis will do the same to Gusii.
If you have forgotten - read Akiwumi report.
Is this mf openly threatening and inciting against other kabilas on a public forum? :o :o
Your hatred and anger is misplaced - has everything to do with Raila and his recent troubles.
My job here is to analyse politics.
We are all sending early warning signs that brazen rigging attempts could trigger violence.
Is this mf openly threatening and inciting against other kabilas on a public forum? :o :o