Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on March 10, 2018, 08:21:44 PM
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I know this will touch a few raw nerves. But it must be discussed. The Raila/Uhuru deal.
We know the tumbocrats have been caught napping and rendered irrelevant. I mean what is Kalonzo's, Mudavadi's, or Weta's street cred in leading an opposition? None. Zero. The extortion game is out the window. Some would claim destroyed by Raila himself partaking in it.
Despite all his conciliatory sounding reactions, has the hustler arap singh purveyor of cholera, mwizi wa wezi, and his 2022 plans also been caught offside by Odinyatta bromance?
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Raila took the pragmatic route given the forces arrayed against him. Kalonzo, Musalia, Wetangula can rant whatever they want. The 3 fellows have been extortionist hangers on. Muasalia had already declared that we start talking 2022, and Kalonzo had already made suggestions that he was willing to do a roundtable with Jubilee; only he had no clout to make this happen. Wetangula is really happy to have made it back as a senator and Minority Leader....he adds very little value to NASA and was really a free loader. His winning his seat was only because he is allied with Raila, otherwise he would easily lose.
So in a way Raila was a lone ranger doing the heavy lifting and at some point he looks at himself in the mirror and decided he must now be selfish and do Raila. This is early times....in due time we will know what really is in his heart of hearts. What has prompted this move? We don't know. If Jubilee ever thinks that they have vanquished him, I would wager that that will be the mistake of their short sojourn as a political party.
That said, a long-drawn altercation like it has been wears down any man; Raila has had no equal to help run the course. Not like the hot boiling years of the 90's where there was enough solid and smart opposition members to cause enough opprobrium around the place. Our 3 musketeers above would always duck whenever there was some heat.... That said, as a strategy of good general I would support Raila's retreat if it is only to take stock and regroup. The supplies (read "the spirit", it has been loooong drawn) are low; the troops are demoralised, worst of all the people have no more hunger for running battles. I would do the same. Businesses are down, the Economy is in a mess, CS Rotich just confessed what we have known for the last 3-4 years that Kenya is broke. We need some mending and if it has to come with one of the protagonists laying down arms, so be it. Kenya needs to recalibrate.
Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetangula say they were never consulted; if they have the balls and can lead the opposition, let them take it over and lead to wherever they think Raila has betrayed them or abandoned the course. Let them not be sissies, it is their time to take the mantle...grab it, power is never for the fainthearted; you grab it. If they think as many Kenyans as there are willing to follow them to the logical end of their unknown cause, so be it.....grab the mantle and run with it. They don't need to be anointed by Raila. They have been saying that he was not to vie in 2022, this is their time to shoo him off the scene. The truth however is that they don't have the gravitas, the numbers, the heart nor the courage to lead any strong opposition formation.
Let Raila lay down the critical matters of discussion including Electoral injustice, Corruption, National Cohesion and Inclusion, and other big agenda issues ailing Kenya today and let us test Uhuru on his commitment and resolve to talk these issues. If he doesnt, we will know that raila and the rest of us Kenya have been duped and we take a new direction from there. Unfortunately there is yet very scanty information on the matters they agreed to address, let us have these articulated by the teams they have put out and let us all as Kenyans come forward and support them in realising those that can lead Kenya to a cohesive state.
As for the Czar of Sugoi, AKA Arap Singh....no one knows what this portends for him. We can only wait to see how things unfold. If we fix Kenya and we really agree that we can be a country of honorable men and women; he should never have been our deputy president. His state capture is worse than the Guptas in South Africa and worse of all capture from the executive's own. You can imagine what this is doing to Kenya!
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I know this will touch a few raw nerves. But it must be discussed. The Raila/Uhuru deal.
We know the tumbocrats have been caught napping and rendered irrelevant. I mean what is Kalonzo's, Mudavadi's, or Weta's street cred in leading an opposition? None. Zero. The extortion game is out the window. Some would claim destroyed by Raila himself partaking in it.
Despite all his conciliatory sounding reactions, has the hustler arap singh purveyor of cholera, mwizi wa wezi, and his 2022 plans also been caught offside by Odinyatta bromance?
Gosh the name. I agree, arap mgondi may be on his last legs. The ones that have been deaded and buried are the i36 and the Fort Hall fools. Finished...
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I believe RAO was threatened.
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I believe RAO was threatened.
Me too...by irrelevance
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I know this will touch a few raw nerves. But it must be discussed. The Raila/Uhuru deal.
We know the tumbocrats have been caught napping and rendered irrelevant. I mean what is Kalonzo's, Mudavadi's, or Weta's street cred in leading an opposition? None. Zero. The extortion game is out the window. Some would claim destroyed by Raila himself partaking in it.
Despite all his conciliatory sounding reactions, has the hustler arap singh purveyor of cholera, mwizi wa wezi, and his 2022 plans also been caught offside by Odinyatta bromance?
There are reports that this stunt wa spilled by Ida,Maggie and Rachel. This would suggest that at the very least Ruto was partly behind it,but let’s assume that’s untrue.
Anyone backed by Raila-Uhunye is a sure bet.
To your point, I doubt Uhunye would be that cruel on Ruto. He owes him both his terms. So working backwards, whatever the contents of their meeting are, Ruto’s future is secured
It all depends how we proceed from the handshake.
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The political thugs are too smart to let trillions/billions empires built over years of tears and blood to be brought down by the petty divisions. Once the division are hurting their businesses they will close ranks. Even Ruto knows the billions he is accumulating need some cohesion to pile up and enjoy!! Ruto needs the cohesion more than the Mois, Odingas and Kenyattas - to pile up more and build his own empire which can last more than a decade.
not sure whether it is fake news or that Raila is set to go meet his bosom friend Magufool. Can bet easing up on Brookside and sale of gas (cylinders) will top the list. Maybe Amaco to be allowed to set shop in TZ might feature too. Such is tumbocracy.
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I know this will touch a few raw nerves. But it must be discussed. The Raila/Uhuru deal.
We know the tumbocrats have been caught napping and rendered irrelevant. I mean what is Kalonzo's, Mudavadi's, or Weta's street cred in leading an opposition? None. Zero. The extortion game is out the window. Some would claim destroyed by Raila himself partaking in it.
Despite all his conciliatory sounding reactions, has the hustler arap singh purveyor of cholera, mwizi wa wezi, and his 2022 plans also been caught offside by Odinyatta bromance?
There are reports that this stunt wa spilled by Ida,Maggie and Rachel. This would suggest that at the very least Ruto was partly behind it,but let’s assume that’s untrue.
Anyone backed by Raila-Uhunye is a sure bet.
To your point, I doubt Uhunye would be that cruel on Ruto. He owes him both his terms. So working backwards, whatever the contents of their meeting are, Ruto’s future is secured
It all depends how we proceed from the handshake.
With kindness enjoying pride of place near the bottom of many politicians' calculations, I would not put much stock in how his actions affect the hustler's fortunes. If slitting the hustler's throat simplified kamwana's life, he would do it.
The hustler is counting on the continuation of the tribal merry-go-round, while kamwana and Raila seem to be looking towards destroying it at least at the offset. At a minimum, the hustler must be conflicted if it appears he might have to go into 2022 with GEMA having warmer and fuzzier feelings for Raila.
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The political thugs are too smart to let trillions/billions empires built over years of tears and blood to be brought down by the petty divisions. Once the division are hurting their businesses they will close ranks. Even Ruto knows the billions he is accumulating need some cohesion to pile up and enjoy!! Ruto needs the cohesion more than the Mois, Odingas and Kenyattas - to pile up more and build his own empire which can last more than a decade.
not sure whether it is fake news or that Raila is set to go meet his bosom friend Magufool. Can bet easing up on Brookside and sale of gas (cylinders) will top the list. Maybe Amaco to be allowed to set shop in TZ might feature too. Such is tumbocracy.
There is some truth in that. If there is one thing the Kenyan political elite has learned from other African countries, it is what it needs to avoid for self preservation of itself as a unit. With the exception of infusion of new faces, the political elite is the same group since independence.
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Ruto will be president in 2022. Uhuru owes his presidency to Ruto and Raila premiership was made possible courtesy of Ruto. So who do you think they will endorse? Ruto might have some rough edges but looking at how Raila bailed out on NASA movement I cannot blame Ruto for ditching ODM.
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Now that I finally get a computer - here is my detailed take.
1) Uhuru - Brilliant move.He has worn down Raila to the point of capitulation.He's forced him to sign a deal not any different from the "mademoni" MOU he signed with MaDVD. I think this is even worse because this one is signed btw some Martin Kamau and Raila. It's not even endorsed by our AG. If Raila & NASA wanted to talk - he should have done early before the cabinet was formed. Uhuru gave him more than 5 months to grab themselves some cabinet position - they refused - only to comeback when there only thing left really on the table is the chairman of cotton & lint board. They are literally scrambling for crumbs on the table.
What the motive of Uhuru. Those who've keenly followed my punditry knows Uhuru at 66 has no intention of retiring. I see Uhuru pursuing two-prong strategy. Un-official Jubilee party leader with influence in gok under Ruto or well a constitutional amendment to find him some role - most likely a ceremonial PM or President. This is where Raila comes in - there is likely going to be a constitutional amendment where Raila thinks they're making a post for him - while all along it's for Uhuru.
2) Raila Odinga.I don't think he intends to retire. Least of all as the Luo king. He'll use that as leverage for a long time. NASA is dead and ODM is also on it's death-bed. He knows that. This latest move is yet another trojan horse attack. The target here is GEMA. He knows his schism with Kalenjin cannot be bridged now or ever. The man betrayed them after they fought for his 2007 PMship. He also knows Ukambani has had it...Kalonzo has to ran in 2022 otherwise he'll become a forgotten joke. I bet he fancy his chances in Luhya against hapless maDVD and Wetangula. Raila I still think is running for 2022. He intend to have GEMA DP just like Ruto. He knows Joho bring nothing new to the table. That is all what I see from him. His major headache is making Uhuru to trust him. I don't think they can trust him. They know the man carries a huge historical grudge.
3) William Ruto. While Uhuru has been changing tact with an eye for self-preservation - Ruto has been disengaging & going sub-marine. He knows he has to be is man - not Uhuru attack or lap dog anymore. He is on the home-stretch. He still literally rans the GOK & make most of all key decisions - his men rans the parliament - both as Majority Leaders of Parliament & Senate - but unlike the first term- he let Uhuru take the limelight.His biggest headache has to remain GEMA - the kiunjuri balloon seem to have burst - and there is no GEMA succesor to Uhuru. Therefore he has to find accommodation for Uhuru. That shouldn't be a big deal. He has made all effort to become Uhuru personal friend & Uhuru trust the guy.His main rival for Non-GEMA vote remain Raila and now he has to wade off Raila trojan horse attack. With NASA implosion - handling Raila should be an easy task. Once NASA is officially buried & last of ODM in Jubilee - it will be question of when to push Raila off the cliff and with a few Luos only following him out. Raila like his father has no patience or tact for long drawn attrition & power -play.
4) kalonzo will ran for pork in 2022. MaDVD will ran for PORK in 2022. Wetangula will capitulate before that. There isn't much to write home about these bozos. They are feckless, clueless and radar-less.
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Well said,but you forgot to mention that PK will also be on the ballot 2022,in a nutshell all the top 5 tribes will have their man or woman gunning for precidency 2022.
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PK who couldn't win Jubilee nomination (where GEMA are 80% of Nairobi Jibilee?) against Sonko? You guys take PK seriously but I don't. He could be candidate for Raila's Deputy - with the likes of Karua - or any other fireband GEMA but on his own - he is pretty much lost.The last time he was a star was 10 yrs ago with CDF. Now we have governors like Mutua who've captured that "Maendeleo ChapChap" and ran away with it.
I think strategy for 2022 for Raila/Kalonzo/MaDVD is to deny Ruto the 50% and aim for a re-run. But as long as Uhuru is with Ruto - GEMA will troop behind Ruto. As Raila warms up to GEMA - Ruto will be aiming to fish the last remaining non-luo out of ODM.
Well said,but you forgot to mention that PK will also be on the ballot 2022,in a nutshell all the top 5 tribes will have their man or woman gunning for precidency 2022.
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Uhuru too was once rejected by people of Gatundu but that didnt stop him from being president
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Besides,did you expect PK and Kabogo to win nominations that were being presided over by Ruto????????????????
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That is Uhuru - the son of Jomo - and his big break came from 2002 Moi endorsement & 2007 PEV. What is PK claim to anything - CDF manager?
Uhuru too was once rejected by people of Gatundu but that didnt stop him from being president
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And so if he couldn't surmount a nomination challenge presided over by Ruto - what makes you think Ruto will disappear or allow him room to even comeback to life. You guys just don't get politics. Take a seat and learn how to analyze politics for free from me.
Besides,did you expect PK and Kabogo to win nominations that were being presided over by Ruto????????????????
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Ruto will be president in 2022. Uhuru owes his presidency to Ruto and Raila premiership was made possible courtesy of Ruto. So who do you think they will endorse? Ruto might have some rough edges but looking at how Raila bailed out on NASA movement I cannot blame Ruto for ditching ODM.
There is always uncertainty, even without the recent Raila Uhuru moves. 2022 is far. What is clear is that Raila in a jubilated camp is a setback of sorts to folks who were hoping for more substantial changes. The more progressive wing in Kenya is left virtually in the hands of armchair and twitter pundits. Kalonzo/Mdvd/Weta are not cut for that.
The real problem is that reconciliation for the jubilant means turning a blind eye to the issues that have resulted in the problems in the first place.
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2022 is far.
Very far. The implication of this new union is to be honest impossible to predict. You are not even sure what it entails or whether it will last
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We have a fast growing Shs5 trillion debt and you are talking 2022??
How about talking about upgrading school buildings from colonial era?
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Based on today appointments - of CAS, PS and Ambassador - I think even the crumbs are off table. The list seem to have come straight from Ruto 's Harambee Anex. Poor Raila might have fallen for the same trick maDVD fell - hook, line and sinker.
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We always saw this coming: the Raila move to break the Ruto-GEMA deal - which will be seen as "personal" just as the new deal. Ruto tried to stymie this by merging Jubilee Party and inducting many non-GEMA. This cost him GEMA trust among Kabogo, PK, etc and earned Munya cheap currency.
The new power play must be Raila incites anti-Ruto rebellion in Jubilee ala Rainbow/LDP. While Ruto stokes anti-Raila rebellion in NASA. Key card: will Raila back a PK against Ruto or go for it again? Don't take it for granted - he could back a GEMA-Kalenjin or GEMA-? ticket. Ruto may be unable to cash his GEMA check afterall - and instead need to pamper them like the spoilt brats they are.
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We always saw this coming: the Raila move to break the Ruto-GEMA deal - which will be seen as "personal" just as the new deal. Ruto tried to stymie this by merging Jubilee Party and inducting many non-GEMA. This cost him GEMA trust among Kabogo, PK, etc and earned Munya cheap currency.
The new power play must be Raila incites anti-Ruto rebellion in Jubilee ala Rainbow/LDP. While Ruto stokes anti-Raila rebellion in NASA. Key card: will Raila back a PK against Ruto or go for it again? Don't take it for granted - he could back a GEMA-Kalenjin or GEMA-? ticket. Ruto may be unable to cash his GEMA check afterall - and instead need to pamper them like the spoilt brats they are.
Reconciliation will be the justification by GEMA for ditching the hustler. It will be everyone for himself. The constitution might not even be recognizable then. Hard to tell these early days.
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Tough luck. Why would Uhuru ditch a reliable partner like Ruto for Raila. Somethings can defy logic and yours is certainly one of them. In fact as days go by - this appear like a jail free card for Raila and friends who committed treason - there is basically nothing in there.
Reconciliation will be the justification by GEMA for ditching the hustler. It will be everyone for himself. The constitution might not even be recognizable then. Hard to tell these early days.
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Tough luck. Why would Uhuru ditch a reliable partner like Ruto for Raila. Somethings can defy logic and yours is certainly one of them. In fact as days go by - this appear like a jail free card for Raila and friends who committed treason - there is basically nothing in there.
Reconciliation will be the justification by GEMA for ditching the hustler. It will be everyone for himself. The constitution might not even be recognizable then. Hard to tell these early days.
It's arguable that the hustler has morphed from reliable partner to reliable baggage. Why exactly would Uhuru need him now?
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Pundit & bitmask - what is suspiciously indicative of Ruto’s sidelinement is the secrecy. Had the DP known you can bet he would have tipped the clueless amigos trio. That only Uhuru, Muhoho, Kameru, Raila & Orengo knew is very significant.
Another sign of Ruto's predicament is the rattled and thinly veiled discomfort in Mandago, et al's reaction. Of the Ruto crew only choreographic Duale is vocal over the matter. While Moses Kuria and Gema MPs are saying Raila should be senior CS 8)
I think self-preserving Uhuru & Gema are playing Ruto v Raila to milk max guarantees from Ruto post-PORK. Ruto himself employed this gambit during the TNA-URP talks in 2012.
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I doubt Uhuru would "hide" such discussion with Ruto. It just probably that Raila insisted on Uhuru being alone. Ruto has been letting Uhuru have all the lime-light he needs because this is his legacy. It been that way post formation of Jubilee. It no longer the URP-TNA coalition days. So Uhuru as PORK of united Jubilee party doesn't need Ruto on his side when announcing cabinet or when receiving Raila & ODM defectors.
It appears all the NASA folks are keen to cross-over and join Jubilee. However the line up is clear. Ruto is deputy and the anointed succesor. That is not up for discussion or debate of any form.
Post 2010 Katiba - no tribe can do it alone - it got to be a coalition of two or three - I don't see how Uhuru will abandon a reliable partner for someone like Raila. That someone has to be smoking something else.
Also I see people talk about GEMA - there is nothing like that - there is Uhuru - the defacto GEMA king. Just like there is nothing like Luo - you're talking Raila. The same with Kalenjin - it just Ruto. Perhaps you can talk about Luhyas - & maybe Kambas - and of course the rest where the folks need to be convinced this way or that way.
Pundit & bitmask - what is suspiciously indicative of Ruto’s sidelinement is the secrecy. Had the DP known you can bet he would have tipped the clueless amigos trio. That only Uhuru, Muhoho, Kameru, Raila & Orengo knew is very significant.
Another sign of Ruto's predicament is the rattled and thinly veiled discomfort in Mandago, et al's reaction. Of the Ruto crew only choreographic Duale is vocal over the matter. While Moses Kuria and Gema MPs are saying Raila should be senior CS 8)
I think self-preserving Uhuru & Gema are playing Ruto v Raila to milk max guarantees from Ruto post-PORK. Ruto himself employed this gambit during the TNA-URP talks in 2012.
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Jubilee will soon look like this
(https://scontent.fnbo1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/29243747_1595875923861423_1091381444113983564_n.jpg?oh=3e9b295509e903f1cc003030c9ef403f&oe=5B36D092)
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Pundit
Uhuru is not abandoning Ruto just leveraging the moment. A subtle business move. Don't tell me Ruto wants a 3rd principal in Jubilee. You're right about the solo Jubilee Party Leader.
Of course there is GEMA - the men who would select a new leader behind his back as soon as he left the hill. Wanjui, Kiraitu, Kirubi kind of oligarchs. Ruto too must contend with them. We can argue their influence.
I think it's an excellent time for a new opposition leader to emerge. As the old guard caves in to Jubilee.
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Ruto knows how to play power - games and soon Raila will be left high n dry. In the first place - he won't be allowed near power --- he seems content to be inside Jubilee tent and that is how it will remain. It amazing how ODM & NASA crumbled. It probably started with boycott of 26th.
There has been no GEMA post -kibaki regime. Uhuru hasn't needed to consult anybody.I believe right now he is in the same position that Raila and Ruto are in with regard to Luo or Kalenjin. It's a question of how they can jump. The very last of that resistance fizzled out last year after the GEMA population routed nearly all independent minded folks. All you have are Uhuru robots. There is barely any leader I know in GEMA land who made it outside Jubilee. I can't put a finger to even 1...maybe independent governor of Laikipia after fall out with Kiunjuri?
I don't see a new opposition emerging - It will still be Raila after he is booted out of Jubilee. The orphans including miguna and civil society have to wait out - nobody except perhaps Ruto - has the money and energy to do opposition work.
Pundit
Uhuru is not abandoning Ruto just leveraging the moment. A subtle business move. Don't tell me Ruto wants a 3rd principal in Jubilee. You're right about the solo Jubilee Party Leader.
Of course there is GEMA - the men who would select a new leader behind his back as soon as he left the hill. Wanjui, Kiraitu, Kirubi kind of oligarchs. Ruto too must contend with them. We can argue their influence.
I think it's an excellent time for a new opposition leader to emerge. As the old guard caves in to Jubilee.
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If we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to fix the country in good faith, it does not bode well for the hustler. Of course some will say it's just another sign of his genius.
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Pundit & bitmask - what is suspiciously indicative of Ruto’s sidelinement is the secrecy. Had the DP known you can bet he would have tipped the clueless amigos trio. That only Uhuru, Muhoho, Kameru, Raila & Orengo knew is very significant.
Another sign of Ruto's predicament is the rattled and thinly veiled discomfort in Mandago, et al's reaction. Of the Ruto crew only choreographic Duale is vocal over the matter. While Moses Kuria and Gema MPs are saying Raila should be senior CS 8)
I think self-preserving Uhuru & Gema are playing Ruto v Raila to milk max guarantees from Ruto post-PORK. Ruto himself employed this gambit during the TNA-URP talks in 2012.
There is the GEMA element. Then we have to allow for the possibility that they are trying to end the ethnic mobilization thing, because they realize that sooner or later it will end up in disaster. If they succeed on some level, that could create a very strange playing field in 2022.
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If we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to fix the country in good faith, it does not bode well for the hustler. Of course some will say it's just another sign of his genius.
Hustler ni political genius. All he has to do is get up on any given day.
I am very skeptical about these moves. It's probably the haves sensing the moves amongst the people. This is self preservation.
I think
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If we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to fix the country in good faith, it does not bode well for the hustler. Of course some will say it's just another sign of his genius.
Hustler ni political genius. All he has to do is get up on any given day.
I am very skeptical about these moves. It's probably the haves sensing the moves amongst the people. This is self preservation.
I think
It is indeed preservation. They will make sure they don't kill the cash cow. The five year cycle of convulsions is not ultimately sustainable. That is the long view.
Short term, I think Raila just wants to get back to comfortable life away from the unwashed masses and tear gas. Kamwana is probably inundated with "rudisha mkono" reminders on one hand and GEMA demands on the other. He just wants to retire without hassles to a favorite drinking hole.
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It's hilarious reading your half-thought ideas. You see if the choice had was btw appeasing Ruto or Raila - you know what they would do. Raila has shown for 2 elections that he has no leverage over Uhuru or GEMA. Gema understands very clearly from 2007 what a scorn RV or Ruto are capable of doing to their 1m people in diaspora - they send nearly 0.5m of them to IDP camps despite the president being KIbaki and in charge of security agency - that is the leverage Ruto has over GEMA and there is nothing they can do short of moving en-masse out of RV. So stop engaging in wishful thinking. Raila has capitulated.I think he has become as senile as Moi. NASA has crumbled - they just fired Wetangula - and that goes the remaining Bukusu - in Raila camp :).
Ruto 2022 seem like a forgone conclusion now. Maybe Raila can offer to extend Uhuru term :) - by removing the term limit :) . That is only threat to Ruto now. Not Raila.
There is the GEMA element. Then we have to allow for the possibility that they are trying to end the ethnic mobilization thing, because they realize that sooner or later it will end up in disaster. If they succeed on some level, that could create a very strange playing field in 2022.
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It's hilarious reading your half-thought ideas. You see if the choice had was btw appeasing Ruto or Raila - you know what they would do. Raila has shown for 2 elections that he has no leverage over Uhuru or GEMA. Gema understands very clearly from 2007 what a scorn RV or Ruto are capable of doing to their 1m people in diaspora - they send nearly 0.5m of them to IDP camps despite the president being KIbaki and in charge of security agency - that is the leverage Ruto has over GEMA and there is nothing they can do short of moving en-masse out of RV. So stop engaging in wishful thinking. Raila has capitulated.I think he has become as senile as Moi. NASA has crumbled - they just fired Wetangula - and that goes the remaining Bukusu - in Raila camp :) .
Ruto 2022 seem like a forgone conclusion now. Maybe Raila can offer to extend Uhuru term :) - by removing the term limit :) . That is only threat to Ruto now. Not Raila.
There is the GEMA element. Then we have to allow for the possibility that they are trying to end the ethnic mobilization thing, because they realize that sooner or later it will end up in disaster. If they succeed on some level, that could create a very strange playing field in 2022.
Your faith in Kalenjin violence as being leverage, is exactly what Raila and Uhuru seem to be out to destroy. Nobody is scared of anyone. And that is the real problem.
If they can get everybody on board against overly ethnicized politics, that would leave the hustler with only Kalenjin threat of violence as a selling point. Not a great place to be.
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Okay wake us up when this lofty dream of kicking out ethnicity or tribalism is achieved by UhuRaila :) . And correction Ruto has more cards or leverage - than just that - obviously making Uhuru pork twice, being loyal and trustworthy count for something - and of course there is that leverage of diaspora kikuyus in RV. Raila brings what to the table -? I don't know - he has no numbers in parliament? He seem to have come minus his other principals - I am sure we will be at this for quite sometime - but the more the days go by - the more hilarous this gets.
Your faith in Kalenjin violence as being leverage, is exactly what Raila and Uhuru seem to be out to destroy. Nobody is scared of anyone. And that is the real problem.
If they can get everybody on board against overly ethnicized politics, that would leave the hustler with only Kalenjin threat of violence as a selling point. Not a great place to be.
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The involvement of Kameru - NIS boss must have been to make it clear that the treason charges were not the Githu Muigai legal comedies was suggesting but some some assault the old man won't have survived. The Raila no conditionality hurried agreement were not about benefits but the threats of obliteration. The harassment of the senile Maina Wanjigi must have been a signal that we know no bounds - we are tired of your shit and we need closure to 2017!! NOW!
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That make some sense. The more I look at this the more I see it as "jail free" card. Raila you know after swearing himself in had not slept at home. I mean never seen such capitulation before. The following day Uhuru went ahead to appoint the remaining CAS - now the only positions left are 7 PS, chairmen of parastals and some few ambassadorial positions.
The involvement of Kameru - NIS boss must have been to make it clear that the treason charges were not the Githu Muigai legal comedies was suggesting but some some assault the old man won't have survived. The Raila no conditionality hurried agreement were not about benefits but the threats of obliteration. The harassment of the senile Maina Wanjigi must have been a signal that we know no bounds - we are tired of your shit and we need closure to 2017!! NOW!
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Meanwhile Prof Nyongo is with Uhuru in Cuba. Next ODM will be dissolving to join Jubilee soon
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In the meantime 20 ODM mps rushes to welcome Ruto in coast. Ohoo boy this is surreal. The cows are coming home.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html
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In the meantime 20 ODM mps rushes to welcome Ruto in coast. Ohoo boy this is surreal. The cows are coming home.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html
To be honest, nobody can guess where we will be @ 90 days from now
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In the meantime 20 ODM mps rushes to welcome Ruto in coast. Ohoo boy this is surreal. The cows are coming home.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html)
To be honest, nobody can guess where we will be @ 90 days from now
But the hustler must be glorified every day. He cannot wait 90 days. :D
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Things don't just happen. They are made to happen. Let me save you the 90 days. Raila will still be cooperating with Jubilee. He'll get a few crumbs for some of his fellows - CS or CAS - Uhuru clearly shut the down on that by appointing all CS & CAS. What is left is few PS positions, ambassadors and Chairmen & board members. But in 1 yr tops - Raila will be booted out - and you know what only 1/3 of ODM (LUO nyanza) will go out with him. The rest will remain in Jubilee to continue being part of Gov.
See these coast MPs - they were already unhappy within ODM - basically whatever little ODM got - the Luos (mbadi, orengo, junet -yeah, etc) - wanted it all - and now these MPS have rushed headlong into Ruto bossom - aware Ruto enjoys gov patronage - not Raila - who basically depended on Joho & Asian tycoons (all abandoned Raila in 2017).
In short this disaster for Raila and ODM. But let focus on Ruto :) the hustler. Raila thinks he is coming to take - but they will take the little left out of him. Already NASA is kaput - it gonna be hard for him to work with Kalonzo/Ukambani/MaDVD-Wetangula-Luhya.
Why wait for 90 days when it obvious?
To be honest, nobody can guess where we will be @ 90 days from no
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I think Ruto is worth all the glory. Raila your fool of course is not praise worthy. Let wait for 90 days and this will be clear as usual.
But the hustler must be glorified every day. He cannot wait 90 days. :D
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Trojan horse.... there is a track record of Raila joining Kanu as Luo-only 20Mps NDP... and exiting as a national 100MPs LDP/ODM. Ruto joins ODM as Kanu faction, leaves as pastoralist party 8)
I think we are witnessing the battle for the Trojan trophy.. what a great privilege for us all.
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Strictly holding factors constant, Mr Pundit, it's Ruto on the line for PORK - with fickle partners - he has the most to lose. This is a game of treachery, and Raila with zero is dangerous. Besides your prediction, an equally plausible outcome is that Raila's worth (to Ruto and Gema separately) will appreciate from nuisance to kingmaker.
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Either way this initial move is a win for Raila, an indeterminate for Ruto.
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Either way this initial move is a win for Raila, an indeterminate for Ruto.
It certainly muddies the waters. There was some value to the hustler in having GEMA, to pick random example, totally opposed to and sick and tired of baba. This move udermines that particular crutch for the hustler.
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Raila had no where to move..in NASA he is marooned having signed a deal that meant odm wont play in 2022..therefore this nothing but pure surrender.See how Ruto has seize the opportunity to capture coast..after after that Ruto is now the defacto non gema leader...and can even take gema head if need be.Obvioysly Uhuru is not a moron and therefore he is just fattening Raila for the inievitable slaughter.
Either way this initial move is a win for Raila, an indeterminate for Ruto.
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This is sort of bizarre... when folks like Aisha Jumwa praise Ruto. It's like Pelosi or Oprah praising Trump.
Of course I support the Chinese model, not the adversarial system where half the team works to derail GoK. The tragedy is corruption and cronysm. But it would be a good experiment and opportunity if the Ruto years can be a one-man show with a strong party. Complete with China-like 5yr marshall plan, Great Leap Forward, etc. An economy-focused system where you have Marxism, Leninism,.. Harambee & Nyayoism came close but was derailed by tribalism and multipartyism which swept out performers like Kibaki from the government. There is much more openness and merit now than the Moi days.
Ruto would have a good platform on the Big 4 Agenda... which ODM and the entire country is now singing.
I really hope Ruto's not being played... it's most kosher before the coup. I don't trust Raila Odinga.
Five Nasa leaders endorse DP Ruto for president in 2022
https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-2022-presidential-election/3126390-4347130-l1f91sz/index.html (https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-2022-presidential-election/3126390-4347130-l1f91sz/index.html)
“We cannot stop an idea whose time has come. In 2022 there is no other candidate for presidency other than the deputy president,” she said.
Ms Jumwa said the Opposition would spearhead Jubilee’s big four agenda.
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For Jubilee, the future looks like communism
https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/For-Jubilee-Party--the-future-looks-like-Communism-/3126390-4347554-4uhg63z/index.html (https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/For-Jubilee-Party--the-future-looks-like-Communism-/3126390-4347554-4uhg63z/index.html)
President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has intensified plans to transform it into a long-standing outfit.
The party is looking to entrench itself as a powerful force akin to the outfits in China, Cuba, South Africa, Tanzania, and Rwanda.
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In the meantime 20 ODM mps rushes to welcome Ruto in coast. Ohoo boy this is surreal. The cows are coming home.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html)
To be honest, nobody can guess where we will be @ 90 days from now
But the hustler must be glorified every day. He cannot wait 90 days. :D
Wishful thinking is somebody’s staple. So I trust Ruto fans will be praising his genius through and through...just as Babu fans believe he has overachieved.
We saw Ruto being praised at the Coast. That changes everything you imagined about his imminent doom. The one thing NASA is not doing at the moment is to waste time in their tried and failed approach of driving a wedge between Uhuru and Ruto.
The more this scenario unfolds,the more I stand y my words that you just can’t tell where you will be 90 days from now
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Why 90 day and why your words? There is enough already to form an opinion and predict the future. Babu after the handshaken - has basically lost his NASA alliance - Ukambani/Bukusu/Maragoli - are pretty much gone. The ODM coast was already out of ODM - the last stroke apart from loosing 2017 election was when Luos took everything on table - minority, chief whip, chairmen & such - and they were waiting for an opportunity to do - somebody like Ruto who rans a parrallel NIS knew this - and therefore unlike you who has to wait for 90 days for things to happen - he just made it happen.The coast movement is not a fluke - these guys were already on their way out - and whoever took an opportunity to adopt those orphans was gonna reap.
In summary - Babu leverage is now mm- Luos :) which a serious downturn.
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Any word on Nanok?
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Nanok seem to have avoided ODM; it could be coz of Governor Chair thing; we shall with women rep by-election if it comes to that; I think generally he has soften; Munyes is now the minister of turkana Oil and Ekwe is lost somewhere.
Anyway as far as ODM went; Coast & related took 1/3; Luo Nyanza 1/3; And they had one or two mps in Luhya/Maaa/Turkana; I don't see how Raila can sustain this unless Uhuru gives him the patronage - obviously he'll be getting small bones thrown to him but Luo Nyanza will simply take it all.
Any word on Nanok?
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Raila smells the coffee :) but it probably too late.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/ODM-MPs-in-William-Ruto-camp-are-on-their-own-Edwin-Sifuna/1064-4347978-kyahyb/index.html
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When Miguna Miguna returns home, things will be thick.
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In the meantime 20 ODM mps rushes to welcome Ruto in coast. Ohoo boy this is surreal. The cows are coming home.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html)
To be honest, nobody can guess where we will be @ 90 days from now
But the hustler must be glorified every day. He cannot wait 90 days. :D
Wishful thinking is somebody’s staple. So I trust Ruto fans will be praising his genius through and through...just as Babu fans believe he has overachieved.
We saw Ruto being praised at the Coast. That changes everything you imagined about his imminent doom. The one thing NASA is not doing at the moment is to waste time in their tried and failed approach of driving a wedge between Uhuru and Ruto.
The more this scenario unfolds,the more I stand y my words that you just can’t tell where you will be 90 days from now
It's early indeed. Even what happens 90 days from now cannot be that reliable of an indicator what 4 years from now will look like.
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In the meantime 20 ODM mps rushes to welcome Ruto in coast. Ohoo boy this is surreal. The cows are coming home.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-MPs-welcome-Ruto-in-Mombasa/1056-4344868-jocm3xz/index.html)
To be honest, nobody can guess where we will be @ 90 days from now
But the hustler must be glorified every day. He cannot wait 90 days. :D
Wishful thinking is somebody’s staple. So I trust Ruto fans will be praising his genius through and through...just as Babu fans believe he has overachieved.
We saw Ruto being praised at the Coast. That changes everything you imagined about his imminent doom. The one thing NASA is not doing at the moment is to waste time in their tried and failed approach of driving a wedge between Uhuru and Ruto.
The more this scenario unfolds,the more I stand y my words that you just can’t tell where you will be 90 days from now
It's early indeed. Even what happens 90 days from now cannot be that reliable of an indicator what 4 years from now will look like.
Totally agreed.
90 days was just a figure of speech of the immediate future.
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(https://mobile.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/4348494/medRes/1913610/-/eumb3vz/-/TOON-20-03.jpg)
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Hehehe. One minute Ruto is at end of the road; next minute; let wait for 90 days; heck for 4.5yrs :)