It depend on how Kiunjuri, Muturi and Wahome arrive in April 2022. If Kiunjuri wakes up and start attacking Kieleweke - not UDA - attack Uhuru and not Ruto - and prove himself he still has 50-50 chance. He had like 80 percent chance - but two or three things are killing him
1) Munya reforms - Mt kenya are very particular on agricluture - and Munya has really turned around tea and coffee sub-sectors. Really bad news for Kiunjuri because his tenure at ministry was lacklustre. Ruto had brought him to cabinet hoping he will raise his game, improve his english, wear a tie and sound like a polished DPORK. Now all he has left is kikuyu proverbs.
2) TSP has failed to gain any traction. Moses Kuria is better at least his party has some traction. However Moses Kuria comes from Gatundu South and cannot replace Uhuru - it's already bad optics that another Kikuyu will be DPORK and Ruto has to consider the propaganda against two tribes - especially it will be lead by Uhuru like he did in Mululu. So Justin Muturi may become better option. Uhuru is spoiling for his own people.
3) They are wasting time with Karua and Kuria - all the three will never agree - on anything.
Finally the only candidate that would make Ruto very afraid is James Mwangi of Equity - but seems he is in team Ruto - if he is lending 15B to Ugandan on strength of a phone call.
Any other candidate will simply be labelled a dynasty project and wont have any traction.
So is it Ruto-Kiunjuri or Ruto-Wahome or Ruto-Weta or what?