Question to Jubilee supporters

[Globalcitizen12]

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If CORD proves that 140 Billion was stolen will you change your vote?

[Georgesoros]

You are kidding, right?
You don't leave the mafia...

If CORD proves that 140 Billion was stolen will you change your vote?

[RV Pundit]

Is that what it's all about? But yeah stealing 140b if proven is going to erode Jubilee support base. The problem...CORD and Raila are running on the empty..making wild allegations.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It doesn't change a thing as far as the jubilant goes.  The rank and file are happy as long as the duo at the top makes them feel validated as members of the ruling tribes.

[Globalcitizen12]

These are the names behind Eurobond acting for and on behalf of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto

1. Joseph Kinyua - Chief of Staff, Statehouse
 2. Kamau Thuge - PS, Treasury
 3. Barnard Ndungu - Account General, Treasury 4. Mohamed Nyaoga - Chairman, CBK
 5. Njuguna Ndungu - Former CBK Governor
 6. John Birech
 6. Moses Muthui - CBK
 7. Henry Rotich - CS, Treasury
 7. Patrick Kamau - Treasury

[RV Pundit]

Sounds lame. Just like Raila just concluded press statement.

These are the names behind Eurobond acting for and on behalf of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto

1. Joseph Kinyua - Chief of Staff, Statehouse
 2. Kamau Thuge - PS, Treasury
 3. Barnard Ndungu - Account General, Treasury 4. Mohamed Nyaoga - Chairman, CBK
 5. Njuguna Ndungu - Former CBK Governor
 6. John Birech
 6. Moses Muthui - CBK
 7. Henry Rotich - CS, Treasury
 7. Patrick Kamau - Treasury

[Globalcitizen12]

so is that money safe? I am not sure on this issue because I am not willing to do the forensic work required and I am not sure what Raila has in terms of evidence

[Pajero]

Raila is no fool to come out open with the names if nothing is cooking.This guy has good networks both within the govt inner circles and internationally.Rememner the Artur brothers saga,NYS saga.He usually ends up with the last laugh.
As usual,i expect the entire jubilee brigade led by Dualle,Murkomen,Kindiki to come out fighting and name calling,he is going to be called all manner of names,he has set the political agenda for next one month.afrocinema continues.

[RV Pundit]

We will keep waiting. As of now..he is running on empty. The number of time Raila has cried wolf is far more than few times he has come up with anything substantial.

Raila is no fool to come out open with the names if nothing is cooking.This guy has good networks both within the govt inner circles and internationally.Rememner the Artur brothers saga,NYS saga.He usually ends up with the last laugh.
As usual,i expect the entire jubilee brigade led by Dualle,Murkomen,Kindiki to come out fighting and name calling,he is going to be called all manner of names,he has set the political agenda for next one month.afrocinema continues.

[RV Pundit]

Institution charged with making sure the money is safe..include two Raila appointees (Odhiambo -Budget Controller-and Auditor General Ouko) have given it clean bill of health. No money has been lost. When we have evidence of lost of money...then we will accept.

so is that money safe? I am not sure on this issue because I am not willing to do the forensic work required and I am not sure what Raila has in terms of evidence

[Pajero]

It will make no difference  whether the money is lost or not,we are soo much enslaved in our tribal cocoons.Raila will just continue looking bad before kikuyus and kalenjins  and savior to his supporters,period.

[Empedocles]

Interesting analysis by someone who attended this morning's briefing:

http://www.intelligencebriefs.com/foreign-financial-journalists-skeptical-about-kenyas-opposition-leader-odinga-report-on-eurobond/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork

[MOON Ki]

I don't know whether Sh. 140 billion was stolen or not.  But as far as I can tell, "Intelligence Briefs" consists of two guys operating out of a small office in Nairobi who simply make up stuff, according to who is paying, and claim it is "intelligence" from "sources".   Because of the name they have given themselves, people tend to swallow whole whatever they dish up.

Here, we note the following:

* The quoted sentences are so badly structured (bordering on nonsensical) that one wonders if the "inventor" actually took the time to even read them, and it is hard to imagine that they would come from a major organization.  E.g., what on earth does this mean:

* Is there really something called "Foreign Journalists Association in East Africa"?   The closest thing I know of is the "Foreign Correspondents' Association of East Africa".   

* Whether it is the "Foreign Journalists Association in East Africa" or the ""Foreign Correspondents' Association of East Africa", is there any evidence (other than what has been dished by the two guys) that the organization  made such statements?  Where?

* We are also told that

Who are these "Money Markets Analysts and experts in economic intelligence", and where have they done the "faulting"?

* Whoever talked to these "analysts and experts" apparently found them in a River-Road bar.   What sort of expert economic analysis is this:

How would the government be losing funds on the bond before the elections?    The one thing everyone agrees on is that the money has already been handed over!     The fact that the yields may change---and they have been changing---doesn't mean the money goes back or is no longer there.  The changes in yield affect only those who are buying the bonds on the secondary market.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Sounds lame. Just like Raila just concluded press statement.

These are the names behind Eurobond acting for and on behalf of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto

1. Joseph Kinyua - Chief of Staff, Statehouse
 2. Kamau Thuge - PS, Treasury
 3. Barnard Ndungu - Account General, Treasury 4. Mohamed Nyaoga - Chairman, CBK
 5. Njuguna Ndungu - Former CBK Governor
 6. John Birech
 6. Moses Muthui - CBK
 7. Henry Rotich - CS, Treasury
 7. Patrick Kamau - Treasury

If indeed they are involved and haven't been fired, you have to rope in kamwana as an accomplice at the very least.  The main culprit at worst.

Even if Raila is right and we now have the faces in the scandal.  As long as the issue remains in the jurisdiction of kienyeji solutions, the relevant question is so what?  They might as well pocket the whole eurobond without consequences. 

His best bet would be to internationalize the scandal in such a way as to involve jurisdictions which frown upon such things.

[RV Pundit]

I agree with Intelligence "two guys" report. This is way beyond Raila pay grade. The worst part is that he is killing Kenya prospect of going for Eurobond leaving kenya gov to borrow locally which only serves to crowd private lending and make sure banks continue making 100% profit year in year for last 30yrs.

Eurobond is not a fish market. Those things are floated in international markets and arranged by some of the best banks in the world supervised thoroughly. This is not anglo leasing where some dodgy due sell dodgy promisory notes...these are bonds floated in regulated debt markets.

This is a very sick joke taken too far. Africa was starting to turn the corner as far as international debt market was concerned and didn't have to depend anymore on the benevolence of IMF or rich countries..but their credit worthiness to tap into billions that are out there.

This is akin to joke Raila  & Nyongo made when they claimed Safaricom was sold cheaply at 6. Bloody irritating stupidity. Raila need to find someone who understand modern economics for him to be taken seriously.

Watching the interview was pretty depressing affair...at least Uhuru and Ruto can navigate modern economics ...Raila should invest in more reading.

Now if investors who bought our 2b get to here these kinds of shenagians...they'll dump those bonds..and next time we want to borrow..we will pay heavily.

[MOON Ki]

Those things are floated in international markets and arranged by some of the best banks in the world supervised thoroughly.

The banks "supervise" only the process of getting money.   Their involvement does not extend to how it is spent; that is up to Kenya's Treasury, etc.     

Africa was starting to turn the corner as far as international debt market was concerned and didn't have to depend anymore on the benevolence of IMF or rich countries.

   

World Bank and IMF data do not support this claim.

[RV Pundit]

Well considering the sensitivity of debt market and how many years we have tried to do this, Raila should curb his irresponsible talk until he has evidence that treasury stole the money. At end of the day the loser here is kenya. We cannot go back to borrow.

Eurobond in my view should be floated nearly every year...unless fx risk are that serious..considering kenya gov easily borrows more than Eurobond every yr.As Raila speaks...treasury probably borrowed 30B this month...and annually borrows equivalent of Eurobond 2-3B usd..all the money going to fatten our Kenyan bankers..with gov getting hit 8-12% and the Raia get deposit of 3-4%..

Bring the evidence...or shut up

The floating of Eurobond is for me a watershed moment for kenya. We shouldn't screw it up. We can easily have the ability to borrow even 10-20B usd for very little interest like most countries outside Africa are doing. This is like the holy grail for any gov. Gov can now stop thinking about how to get money but how to invest that money by executing projects that can turn the fortunes of the country around.

The banks "supervise" only the process of getting money.   Their involvement does not extend to how it is spent; that is up to Kenya's Treasury, etc.       

[Empedocles]

Moon Ki,

You went after the messenger, not the message. The issue is RAO made serious allegations and I'm interested in seeing if he presented the proof.

So, answer these questions of you think RAO got everything 101% right and the backroom analysts are bogus:

1. Laundering $1b from the named banks. You seriously think it's possible to hide $1B from the bond?
2. RAO promised to name the culprits who ate the money. Did he?


Here's another "backroom" journalist who was also at the briefing contesting that RAO did not offer anything substantial:

.@RailaOdinga consultant Alexander Owino concludes presentation. Mr Odinga back on. No proof on #eurobond $ stolen presented to @FCAEA
8:19 AM - 14 Jan 2016

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[MOON Ki]

Moon Ki,
So, answer these questions of you think RAO got everything 101% right and the backroom analysts are bogus:

For some strange reason, you seem to assume that questioning your two "intelligence" guys means  that I agree with Raila.   I can't imagine what gave you that idea.   Please read my comments again.    Also, who are these analysts, and where can I read their analyses? (Please do not refer me to the two "intelligence" guys or Twitter.)

1. Laundering $1b from the named banks. You seriously think it's possible to hide $1B from the bond?

The named banks are, I take it, Citi-Bank and JP Morgan & Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 

First: There seems to be the notion that huge, "reputable" banks cannot be involved in money laundering and other similar mischief.   That is not correct.   Example: in the last 3 years or so, HSBC (bigger than Citibank and JP Morgan) has paid something like $2 billion in fines (USA, Switzerland, ...) as a penalty for such activities.    (Note that this is not the same as saying that the banks above have been engaged in Eurobond mischief.)

Second: Has the money has been sitting in those banks all the time?   From what I understand (via what Rotich said), part of the money was used to pay a US$ syndicated loan and the rest (most of it) was transferred to CBK and then dished out to ministries, for "development projects".    So it seems to me that even if the trail starts with the "named banks", as indeed it should and must, the real place anyone ought to be looking is CBK and elsewhere in Kenya.

Is it possible to "hide $1B from the bond"?   I am happy to try answering that question, with respect to any bank.   But would you please first tell me what you mean by "hide"?

2. RAO promised to name the culprits who ate the money. Did he?

I understand that he gave some names.   Are they of the culprits who ate the money?   I have no idea.   I don't even know if any money was eaten.   (Note that that is not the same as stating a belief that no money was eaten.)   What I definitely know about: Kenya and its history, Kenyans, corruption, large-scale theft from public coffers.   

Here's another "backroom" journalist who was also at the briefing contesting that RAO did not offer anything substantial:

.@RailaOdinga consultant Alexander Owino concludes presentation. Mr Odinga back on. No proof on #eurobond $ stolen presented to @FCAEA
8:19 AM - 14 Jan 2016

I have no doubt that there are quite a few journalists, analysts, "intelligence experts", etc. who will go along with that.   But I'm not sure that their "tweets" necessarily tell us much.  What I take seriously is the sort of stuff that Ndii has written; I have yet to see a solid counter to his reasoning.

I have also read all of the relevant tweets by Matina Stevis and then made enquiries regarding her position w.r.t. the FCAEA.   As far as I can tell:

* She is just one member of the organization and does not "speak" for it.
* She is not responsible for any of the quotations from the two "intelligence" guys.   

[MOON Ki]

Eurobond in my view should be floated nearly every year...unless fx risk are that serious..considering kenya gov easily borrows more than Eurobond every yr.As Raila speaks...treasury probably borrowed 30B this month...and annually borrows equivalent of Eurobond 2-3B usd..all the money going to fatten our Kenyan bankers..with gov getting hit 8-12% and the Raia get deposit of 3-4%..

If my recollection is correct, the Eurobond was issued at an interest rate of about 6.8%.    That's hardly cheap, but what constitutes "cheap" can be argued about.   Still, the money will go to "fatten" foreigners.  Is that better that "fattening" Kenyans?   I don't know.

More important: Considering the vagaries of exchange rates, I would not equate the borrowing of dollars with the borrowing of the "equivalent", although the latter term obviously invites the equation.  (One cannot predict what will happen with exchange rates, but on current trends the Eurobond is likely to be more costly than what people had in mind when it was issued.)

We can easily have the ability to borrow even 10-20B usd for very little interest like most countries outside Africa are doing.

On the secondary market, yields on that Kenyan Eurobond have (when I last looked) have gone to over 9%.    Among other things, that suggests that if Kenya were to now borrow by such means, it would be much more costly.

The other things to keep in mind are that:

* All those foreign investors are buying such bonds (Kenya and elsewhere in Africa) because they currently offer better returns than in their own countries.  For low returns (which translates into lower interest rates for the borrower), there is little incentive for such investment.   

* With the endless mayhem, corruption, etc., the "risk" in Africa is always high.   Given a choice between lending at 3% to Africa and lending at the same rate to one of their own, investors will make the logical choice.

All in all, as long as things continue to be the way they are on The Beloved Continent, I don't see any low-cost commercial borrowing happening any time soon.   (Side-note: People sometimes think that Kung Fu, our "great helper", lends us money at cheap rates.   Set aside the interest on such loans and look at the insurance rates!)