Ruto 32% 2010 Referendum Vs.Moi 36% 1992 PORK election.

[Githunguri]

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Friends,


During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.


In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi  + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.


After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.

In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.

If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?

Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August.That's a JOKE.

[Nowayhaha]

Jaduong , Ruto is winning because GEMA is on his side.
Simple and clear , You say Uhuru won with 3.2 M GEMA votes in 2013. Ruto owns that support now.
To win Kenyan elections under current constituion you need GEMA votes.

[RV Pundit]

Jaramogi got 15% and Raila got 10% in 1992 and 1997 - how do you expect he will win - when he is back to default mode of being a Luo party.

Friends,


During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.


In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi  + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.


After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.

In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.

If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?

Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August.That's a JOKE.

[RV Pundit]

You dont need GEMA votes to win - you need 50% plus one - there are 42 tribes that can give you many permutation and combination to win PORK

For example in 2005 - Luhya+Kalenjin+Luo+Kamba - gave the Nos - a 58%.

With GEMA - on your side - you're half way to 50%( 25%) - and need one big tribe at 15% to take you to 40% - then play the battleground

Without GEMA - you need three big tribes (Luhya, Kalenjin, kamba or Luos) - depending on combination you get 35-40% - then play the battleground.

All the Big 5 tribes in Kenya are roughly 20+15+15+10+10 (Kikuyus, Luhyas,Kalenjin, Luos & Kambas)=70%.  The remainder smaller tribes are 30% - these are normally the battle ground - and you can easily get half of that - 15% - so I would say try to get 35% from big tribes.

Raila is struggling because Luo+Kamba alliance at best is 20% of the vote...half Luhyas takes you 27% - therefore he is dead on arrival - because he has to take almost all the battle ground tribes - which is impossibility

Jaduong , Ruto is winning because GEMA is on his side.
Simple and clear , You say Uhuru won with 3.2 M GEMA votes in 2013. Ruto owns that support now.
To win Kenyan elections under current constituion you need GEMA votes.

[Nowayhaha]

RV a united GEMA needs just topups to win. Thats why Raila wanted BBI.
Ruto is winning because of GEMA , same formulae UhuRuto used in 2013 and 2017 and Raila was hellbound to disrupt using BBI Uhuru and the PKs.

You dont need GEMA votes to win - you need 50% plus one - there are 42 tribes that can give you many permutation and combination to win PORK

For example in 2005 - Luhya+Kalenjin+Luo+Kamba - gave the Nos - a 58%.

With GEMA - on your side - you're half way to 50%( 25%) - and need one big tribe at 15% to take you to 40% - then play the battleground

Without GEMA - you need three big tribes (Luhya, Kalenjin, kamba or Luos) - depending on combination you get 35-40% - then play the battleground.

All the Big 5 tribes in Kenya are roughly 20+15+15+10+10 (Kikuyus, Luhyas,Kalenjin, Luos & Kambas)=70%.  The remainder smaller tribes are 30% - these are normally the battle ground - and you can easily get half of that - 15% - so I would say try to get 35% from big tribes.

Raila is struggling because Luo+Kamba alliance at best is 20% of the vote...half Luhyas takes you 27% - therefore he is dead on arrival - because he has to take almost all the battle ground tribes - which is impossibility

Jaduong , Ruto is winning because GEMA is on his side.
Simple and clear , You say Uhuru won with 3.2 M GEMA votes in 2013. Ruto owns that support now.
To win Kenyan elections under current constituion you need GEMA votes.

[RV Pundit]

I dont dispute that united GEMA are the deciding factor in this election - but not always. GEMA alone can get you at best 28 percent - of the vote - let say 30 percent - you still need 20 percent out there. If you dont get one of Big 5 tribes...you cannot win.If GEMA split like in 1990s - then it become harder - in short there are many permutations and combinations to become PORK.

GEMA is biggest single united bloc - so anyone who get it start at very strong advantage. But remember GEMA is also albatross because strong Anti-GEMA (kikuyu) sentiments in most of the battleground. Therefore it can be a poisoned chalice like it was to Kibaki/Matiba/Uhuru who struggle to get votes outside GEMA. Uhuru for example did very badly in coast, luhyas, kambas, luos - did okay in Gusii - and therefore without Kalenjin - he wont have become PORK.

Moi beat Kibaki in 1997 because of anti-Kikuyu sentiments - gave Moi big push in Non-GEMA areas. Kibaki only got Gusii votes and few Kambas by Munyao (I know DP in out being a member for a decade).

Moi had built the anti-kikuyu (principally anti-big tribe) alliance - but went 360 like UHuru is doing - and endorse a Kikuyu  - leading to death of KANU - that anti-Kikuyu alliance became ODM (with Raila unlike MOi being very upfront about it being anti-kikuyu party) - and that ODM has slowly and surely dissipated - and today anti-kikuyism is dying.

I think on august ODM will die like KANU. It's raison' detre of existing has ended- Azimio crew cannot talk about Kikuyu (and now Kalenjin) propaganda - without makiing Uhuru-Gideon uncomfortable. This another KANU 2002 moment. So far I project ODM will struggle to get 30 mps and 5 governors. It's dying.

RV a united GEMA needs just topups to win. Thats why Raila wanted BBI.
Ruto is winning because of GEMA , same formulae UhuRuto used in 2013 and 2017 and Raila was hellbound to disrupt using BBI Uhuru and the PKs.

[Githunguri]

Jaramogi got 15% and Raila got 10% in 1992 and 1997 - how do you expect he will win - when he is back to default mode of being a Luo party.

Friends,

Moi used to win because there was no 50 + 1 Rule.

If there was a runoff in 1992 or 1997 and jaramogi or raila support matiba or kibaki,Moi would have shit on his pant.

During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.


In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi  + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.


After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.

In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.

If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?

Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August.That's a JOKE.

Without GEMA vote Moi used to get 36% and 40% in 1992 and 1997 election while Raila and Jaramogi got 17% in 1992 and 1997 election.

Let ua put that into perspective,Moi used to get 60% coastal vote,40% luhya vote and i think 60% Kamba vote,If you therefore remove coast ukambani and luhya,He would have been down tp maybe 25% the same rank as Raila with his 17% vote.

Raila has inherited Coastal,Western ans Ukambani vote which has moved him from 17% in 1997 to 44% in 2017 WITHOUT GEMA.

NOW IN 2022,Raila has his previous 44% VOTE BLOCK INTACT at 44%,As long as he gets 30% GEMA vote he is at 56% less 5% from 61% Kibaki win in 2002 because of Mudavadi and Weta 5% National vote frpm maragoli and bukusu.

Unlike Moi Ruto has no control of North Eastern,Coast,Luhya and Kamba and a divided GEMA vote cannot supplement his numbers.

Its Raila 56% 2022 5TH PORK.

[Nowayhaha]

2 factors you need to consider when talking of 90s .
1. You needed wimple majority to become President.
2. GEMA was divided.
As we speak now you need 50%+1 to win Presidency and secondly because of bogeyman Raila they are more united than anything. Once Raila is out of the scene , they will be divided once again.

I dont dispute that united GEMA are the deciding factor in this election - but not always. GEMA alone can get you at best 28 percent - of the vote - let say 30 percent - you still need 20 percent out there. If you dont get one of Big 5 tribes...you cannot win.If GEMA split like in 1990s - then it become harder - in short there are many permutations and combinations to become PORK.

GEMA is biggest single united bloc - so anyone who get it start at very strong advantage. But remember GEMA is also albatross because strong Anti-GEMA (kikuyu) sentiments in most of the battleground. Therefore it can be a poisoned chalice like it was to Kibaki/Matiba/Uhuru who struggle to get votes outside GEMA. Uhuru for example did very badly in coast, luhyas, kambas, luos - did okay in Gusii - and therefore without Kalenjin - he wont have become PORK.

Moi beat Kibaki in 1997 because of anti-Kikuyu sentiments - gave Moi big push in Non-GEMA areas. Kibaki only got Gusii votes and few Kambas by Munyao (I know DP in out being a member for a decade).

Moi had built the anti-kikuyu (principally anti-big tribe) alliance - but went 360 like UHuru is doing - and endorse a Kikuyu  - leading to death of KANU - that anti-Kikuyu alliance became ODM (with Raila unlike MOi being very upfront about it being anti-kikuyu party) - and that ODM has slowly and surely dissipated - and today anti-kikuyism is dying.

I think on august ODM will die like KANU. It's raison' detre of existing has ended- Azimio crew cannot talk about Kikuyu (and now Kalenjin) propaganda - without makiing Uhuru-Gideon uncomfortable. This another KANU 2002 moment. So far I project ODM will struggle to get 30 mps and 5 governors. It's dying.

RV a united GEMA needs just topups to win. Thats why Raila wanted BBI.
Ruto is winning because of GEMA , same formulae UhuRuto used in 2013 and 2017 and Raila was hellbound to disrupt using BBI Uhuru and the PKs.

[RV Pundit]

Githunguri moron..Raila got 10 percent in 1992 because ford k splintered into bukusu and Luo after succession war btw wamalwa and Raila.As we speak odm is just a glorified Luo party and it expected the hamorraging continue from 62 MPs to 30mps

[Githunguri]

Githunguri moron..Raila got 10 percent in 1992 because ford k splintered into bukusu and Luo after succession war btw wamalwa and Raila.As we speak odm is just a glorified Luo party and it expected the hamorraging continue from 62 MPs to 30mps

In 1997-Western province-Raila 2% Moi 44% Wamalwa 48%.

In 2007-With Mudavadi was not an Mp while all senior luhya leaders from Kombo Weta Mukhisa etc,Raila got nearly 70% Luhya vote.

2013-2017 Raila has been at over 60% Luhya vote even without Mudavadi in 2013.

Raila popularity in the Luhya vote block has risen from 2% in 1997-65% in 2022.Is that not progress?Ruto has tried tp overthrow Raila from luhya land in 2014 and 2017 unsuccessfully.You think he will do that in 2022?

Now let the people here judge who is the moron.Me or you?

[RV Pundit]

Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto

[Nefertiti]

  when were the elections held? Mizani?

Facts are stubborn:
-Luhya are split - half Bukusu are in DAP-K a very strong Azimio party.
-Raila party is Azimio not ODM. Focus. Without PORK UDA will be another big Jubilee which implode in a few months

Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto

[Githunguri]

Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto

(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?

(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?

Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.

So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.

[RV Pundit]

Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto

(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?

(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?

Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.

So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.

Luhya are roughly split into bukusu & leaning, maragoli& leaning, others. KANU use to win maragoli & other with bukusu following muliro the wamalwa supporting ford kenya.Succesion battle btw mukhisa and kombo on who was to succeed Wamalwa finished them both and gave rise to Wetangula who benefited from Kibaki reward of Bukusu.Weta in 2013 went with Raila and 2017 too.Now he is team Ruto.Madvd control maragoli n related about 30 percent of luhyas.Others became kanu orphans and were inherited by Raila ldp later ODM. 2022 is easy Ruto will take 2/3 of luhya

[Nowayhaha]

In 2007 in Bukusu land there was both Ford Kenya and New Ford Kenya and NARK Kenya supporting Kibaki. Mukhisa stood on NARK Kenya and lost to Ford Kenya.
Bukusu are in 3 Counties Mt Elgon, Transzoia and Bungoma. Stop using Provinces they no longer exist.

Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto

(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?

(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?

Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.

So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.

[RV Pundit]

Mukhisa and kombo engaged in war of kumalizana..each lost in their areas ... giving unlikely rise to Wetangula as bukusu leader... Bukusu are in Bungoma.. majority in 6 out of 8 const..with sabaot kalenjin and tachoni taking one each..they majority of luhya in Tranzoia.. generally taking 3 seats..they also take one seat in kakamega in likuyani..and Westland where Weta brother Tim has been mp.Mt Elgon Is not a county

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Friends,


During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.


In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi  + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.


After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.

In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.

If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?

Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August. That's a JOKE.

Do you listen to yourself? Ruto was strong then, but now that he has brought mighty Gema and the rest of the country by his side, you can only conclude that he is very strong. You have to be an absolute idiot not to see what is unfolding in Kenya. Uhuru and Raila will be fighting tooth and nail to befriend Ruto after the elections. On the other hand, Ruto, as President will be fighting tooth and nail to make sure they become irrelevant in Kenya's politics, after, of course, getting swindled! 

[RV Pundit]

What Weta lacks in charisma (unlike muliro or wamalwa kijana) he makes up by deep pockets and unmatched thuggery led by his brother in Bungoma town...opposing Weta is one of ways to die in Sirisia.Opposing echeza in mumias ESO mayoni n shebelle slums death.Kakamega town is run by thug called toto.Bundalangi and Busia is senseless thuggery similar to Luo Nyanza with migori especially very violent

[RV Pundit]

Friends,


During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.


In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi  + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.


After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.

In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.

If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?

Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August. That's a JOKE.

Do you listen to yourself? Ruto was strong then, but now that he has brought mighty Gema and the rest of the country by his side, you can only conclude that he is very strong. You have to be an absolute idiot not to see what is unfolding in Kenya. Uhuru and Raila will be fighting tooth and nail to befriend Ruto after the elections. On the other hand, Ruto, as President will be fighting tooth and nail to make sure they become irrelevant in Kenya's politics, after, of course, getting swindled! 

Ruto single handly worked on luhya until jubilee tawe of 2013 became 30 percent..he has not stopped there and was already at 40 percent without madvd +Weta.I expected Ruto to score 70 or even 80 percent of luhya.Ruto will demand half shareholding in Kenyatta n Moi empire or he crushes them.For Raila he will crush him and liberate Luos.. hakuna deal he can make with broke old Raila

[Nefertiti]

(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?

(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?

Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.

So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.

Mdvd lost Luhya 2002 and 2013 while running for VP and PORK. This time he is going for Treasury CS but will somehow deliver Luhya.