Is Raila Losing Grip On Coast -Why Coast MPs skipped Raila rallies

[Nowayhaha]

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https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/why-coast-mps-skipped-raila-rallies-1938414

ODM leader Raila Odinga wrapped his Coast visit in Mombasa, even as most elected leaders under his party kept off his tour, in a sign of discontent over the party’s handling of the revenue stalemate.

Mr Odinga’s five-day tour of the region, where he pushed hard at Deputy President William Ruto in his impromptu rallies as he sought to solidify his stronghold and cut back any gains the DP has made, was being seen as an appeasement, and explainer on his position over the revenue allocation stalemate.

From Taita Taveta to Kwale and Mombasa, Mr Odinga did not hold back, using every opportunity on the roadside rallies to castigate Dr Ruto as an opportunistic politician hell bent on taking advantage of the unemployed youths with his ‘Hustler Nation' message.

But throughout the visit, Mr Odinga received cold reception from political leaders both in Taita and Kwale, save for Mombasa where almost all the ODM party MPs managed to attend his meeting at the Wild Waters resort on Saturday.

Interestingly, none of the elected leaders from neighbouring Kilifi, where ODM holds all parliamentary positions, attended any of his meetings.

Those who attended the Mombasa meeting, and also tagged along for Mr Odingas’ impromptu roadside rallies within Mombasa included Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, Abdulswamad Nassir (Mvita), Mishi Mboko (Likoni), Twalib Badi (Jomvu, Omar Mwinyi (Changamwe) and Mombasa Woman Representative Asha Hussein.

In his first day in Taita-Taveta County, only area Governor Granton Samboja, Wundanyi MP Danson Mwashako and Voi MP Jones Mlolwa accompanied Mr Odinga.

Revenue sharing formula
In Kwale, the situation was not different as Senator Isa Juma Boy and MP Zuleikha Hassan accompanied the former prime minister during a delegates meeting, as compared to previous years, where all party MPs were present in his meetings and rallies.

Coast legislators have been protesting against ODM top leadership for not pushing their agenda to oppose the proposed county revenue sharing formula, threatening to ditch the party in favour of their own regional vehicle.

In July over 10 legislators, led by Kilifi North MP Owen Baya, said it was time to severe links with ODM over its stance on the revenue allocation formula.

Of the ODM elected leaders who attended the press conference at Parliament, it was only Mr Mlolwa who attended Mr Odinga’s meeting as the rest kept off.

Mr Ruto tried to take advantage of the discontent to gain support by visiting Mombasa and meeting various leaders to strengthen his support in the region, which has been an ODM Party stronghold for years.

A fortnight ago, DP Ruto was in Mombasa and Taveta, where he held a series of meetings with political and religious leaders, addressing a rally in Nyali.

Over the weekend, and through his tour, Mr Odinga trooped in, on the backdrop of the revenue stalemate that has seen the Coast region dither over his position, to “explain” himself, while at the same time checkmate any gains Mr Ruto could have made.

[Nefertiti]

1M1S is no match for BBI 35% devolution

[Nowayhaha]

1M1S is no match for BBI 35% devolution

If he really cared for Coast at least he would have routed for both .
Secondly people already know BBI is a pipe dream , 1M1S is  a reality and it was being beamed all over Kenya through TV , with Coast up in arms lead by Madzayo .
Thirdly youve always said BBI referendumn was killed by Covid and it aint happening soon , Now you think politicians are that naive to buy BBI hook  line, and sinker .

[Nefertiti]

1M1S is no match for BBI 35% devolution

If he really cared for Coast at least he would have routed for both .
Secondly people already know BBI is a pipe dream , 1M1S is  a reality and it was being beamed all over Kenya through TV , with Coast up in arms lead by Madzayo .
Thirdly youve always said BBI referendumn was killed by Covid and it aint happening soon , Now you think politicians are that naive to buy BBI hook  line, and sinker .

1M1S has flopped after 12 midnight votes in senate - I see this as the original plan - furious Kikuyu will hang Ruto for it. Pwani or NFD or Matusa will not be bitter after winning - it the losers who will be very bitter.

Yes BBI is long dead thanks to covid logistics and economics. It now solid Raila 22 Manifesto - he can cut anyone anything from the blank checkbook. Canaan, 35%, 1/3, PM, name it. Hustler Manifesto is tough sell against this tribal coalition.

[Nowayhaha]

1M1S is no match for BBI 35% devolution

If he really cared for Coast at least he would have routed for both .
Secondly people already know BBI is a pipe dream , 1M1S is  a reality and it was being beamed all over Kenya through TV , with Coast up in arms lead by Madzayo .
Thirdly youve always said BBI referendumn was killed by Covid and it aint happening soon , Now you think politicians are that naive to buy BBI hook  line, and sinker .

1M1S has flopped after 12 midnight votes in senate - I see this as the original plan - furious Kikuyu will hang Ruto for it. Pwani or NFD or Matusa will not be bitter after winning - it the losers who will be very bitter.

Yes BBI is long dead thanks to covid logistics and economics. It now solid Raila 22 Manifesto - he can cut anyone anything from the blank checkbook. Canaan, 35%, 1/3, PM, name it. Hustler Manifesto is tough sell against this tribal coalition.

I handover to you RV, this is a high level of delusion

[RV Pundit]

Leave her to me. Kichwa was sick in his delusion - but I think she sicker. She changes tunes - because she cannot face reality. Now BBI 3.0 (aka Manifesto) is the new delusion.

Mijikenda have bolted out.

It was the last straw. 1M1S was basically the very last straw.

ODM is basically a party of Luos and Mijikenda.

When ODM got positions - Luos TOOK EVERYTHING - both in Senate and Parliament.

Jumwa got PSC - and basically that was all. She was the woman enough to say - hell NO.

A few protested - and Joho bought them out. They went back to Baba.

Come  recently - when Ruto men were kicked out - Raila again completely forgot coast - not even Vice Chair.

Now the last straw was 1M1S.

I think the mijikenda will form a party - and front either Kingi or Kwale governor.

Raila found himself addressing empty cars - and that is just the start.

I handover to you RV, this is a high level of delusion

[Nefertiti]

Who is in denial really? Noway a few months rookie can be forgiven - but Pundit and Ruto are stuck in Uhurutopia. 1M1S is double-edged simi - and a national item - you cannot run half-baked analysis in Pwani. Win-win is BBI 35%.

Ruto harebrained strategy continue to haunt him. Pundit used to paint Raila as being threatened by Ruto ambition - so Raila favored Mdvd and pushed Ruto into Uhuru corner. Ruto instead of working with potential GEMA - PK, Kabogos, Munyas, Mbuguas - hanged them in 2017 mlolongo. This vacuum of Uhuru freehand is what Pundit now now calls for "Sudi character"; - if PK was Nairobi governor he might be sterling performer unstoppable like Uhuru 2013. He would cut the best deal in his own interest. Instead now Ruto must square directly with Uhuru for GEMA - it has become impossible to paint Raila as the homewrecker - seem it Mama Ngina the new scapegoat. How is that going? How then does the Ruto vs Raila scarecrow playout? - it won't cause BBI will dangle PM real power-sharing - with Uhuru as cheerleader. BBI death is covid reality not delusion - Raila will definitely milk it as manifesto.

You see Hustler Nation is more hare-barained strategy ala mlolongo. It immediately isolate most of the kingpins. This new gospel that Gusii or Kamba youth will leave Kalonzo, Mutua, Kibwana, Ngilu - and vote Ruto - cause he is hustler like them. Of course this turn MOAS pseudo-science on its head - the definition of delusion. That nonsense only fly with disaffected GEMA youth who were already in Ruto column. As soon as they have their own horse - there will be nothing to string them.

Ruto and Raila are just aliens - foreigners - in Mt Kenya. BOTH. When Pundit gets this he will begin to resuscitate his struggling punditry. Uhuru obviously pull GEMA strings and remain Ruto impossible headache. It why Ruto clings to Uhurutopia charade despite brazen all-out war - as even his mean machine all but endorse Raila I see on Youtube he still claims Uhuru will back him - on Baite Alfajiri If today Uhuru call Ruto and tell him to pick PK or Muhoho as runningmate in exchange for his support - MK would be dumped without a blink.

Why is PK the clear front-runner stooge? without Uhuru he is no match for MK or even Wa Irias - definitely no wit or cunning to manoeuvre BBI and GoK inner circles by himself. But now all doors seem to magically open for him. Ironically this make him a perfect stooge and marketable GEMA - akin to Mdvd safe-pair-of-hands. Those "camps" of Kagwe, Kimunya, Matiang'i are Tangatanga denial and hope.

Please come back to punditry.

[Nefertiti]

Delusion is what Kichwa indulged in 2008-12 - claiming tribe is not critical as ODM Pentagon unraveled - folks were to vote on "issues" which only Raila represented.

Kibra is another example where reality was suspended. Luhya were suddenly 40% majority despite census; soccer stardom was to sweep all youth and eclipse tribe; machinery did not matter. Only thing that counted was Ruto handouts.

[RV Pundit]

Youre not very smart after all.

1) Nobody has appointed PK Kikuyu GEMA leader - and it's not that easy. I am laughing at you naivety. What has he done to warrant unchallenged Kikuyu or GEMA leadership? Uhuru himselfu had to go to ICC...to win GEMA.

2) You missed a lot of lesson when I was schooling Kichwa. You missed the early part - the Decoupling of Kalenjin from Raila/ODM. That was not easy. Kalenjin had voted and killed for Raila. Ruto had to find good reason and a lot of convincing. Mau forest eviction and ICC made the case. Yet, many, including all cabinet ministers and ass ministers, plus some mps still refused to board Ruto train. They were convinced ODM was the way.

Uhuru to divorce Ruto from Mt Kenya has to find good reason. Now consider with Kikuyus - it also mean putting at stake million of their people, their investment and future. That is not a light matter that you can look for any lame excuse. There has to be a VERY GOOD REASON why kikuyus will risk their reputation, their own people and name it. AND WORSE FOR AN ENEMY LIKE RAILA. Hiyo bhangi noma sana.

It aint happening for personal kenyatta interest. And this is what Sudi/Ngeno are helping Kikuyus grasp. This is why GEMA have told Uhuru to take a hike and stuck with Ruto despite intimidation, bribery, DCI, EACC, Matusi and threats.

3) Tribal politics is not that stupid.  There is community interest. If you're perceived as going against it - you get kicked out. There is a book by some researchers published recently - on Kenya ethnic politics read it.
https://www.amazon.com/Oxford-Handbook-Kenyan-Politics/dp/0198815697

4) Uhuru is going home. The sooner you understand that the better. Nobody will care what he says or do pretty soon. Now he has less than 2yrs. By Jan - he will be 1.5 yrs to go home - and by mid 2021 - nobody will care about the son of Mama Ngina - especially if the economy will be struggling - and legacy of disunity will be out there.

5) We are changing power - prepare for interesting results. This is not Uhuru running for 3rd term. If Uhuru was running for re-election - he would manage to bulldoze things. But soon the center will not hold - and everyone will be looking for a new future.

6) Ruto is not interested in deal making now. That is stupid strategy. You only do deals the last minute after a quick MOASS. You don't start from deals like Raila. BBI then arrange all flower girls and win.  Those are done in last minute. Now it's time to maximize your support. Even 15yrs ago in 2005 - Ruto was launching his presidential bid - knowing he would use it to bargain with Raila.


Anyway as early as this week Munya was kicked out by his own Meru people for talking ill about the doyen.
 

Who is in denial really? Noway a few months rookie can be forgiven - but Pundit and Ruto are stuck in Uhurutopia. 1M1S is double-edged simi - and a national item - you cannot run half-baked analysis in Pwani. Win-win is BBI 35%.

Ruto harebrained strategy continue to haunt him. Pundit used to paint Raila as being threatened by Ruto ambition - so Raila favored Mdvd and pushed Ruto into Uhuru corner. Ruto instead of working with potential GEMA - PK, Kabogos, Munyas, Mbuguas - hanged them in 2017 mlolongo. This vacuum of Uhuru freehand is what Pundit now now calls for "Sudi character"; - if PK was Nairobi governor he might be sterling performer unstoppable like Uhuru 2013. He would cut the best deal in his own interest. Instead now Ruto must square directly with Uhuru for GEMA - it has become impossible to paint Raila as the homewrecker - seem it Mama Ngina the new scapegoat. How is that going? How then does the Ruto vs Raila scarecrow playout? - it won't cause BBI will dangle PM real power-sharing - with Uhuru as cheerleader. BBI death is covid reality not delusion - Raila will definitely milk it as manifesto.

You see Hustler Nation is more hare-barained strategy ala mlolongo. It immediately isolate most of the kingpins. This new gospel that Gusii or Kamba youth will leave Kalonzo, Mutua, Kibwana, Ngilu - and vote Ruto - cause he is hustler like them. Of course this turn MOAS pseudo-science on its head - the definition of delusion. That nonsense only fly with disaffected GEMA youth who were already in Ruto column. As soon as they have their own horse - there will be nothing to string them.

Ruto and Raila are just aliens - foreigners - in Mt Kenya. BOTH. When Pundit gets this he will begin to resuscitate his struggling punditry. Uhuru obviously pull GEMA strings and remain Ruto impossible headache. It why Ruto clings to Uhurutopia charade despite brazen all-out war - as even his mean machine all but endorse Raila I see on Youtube he still claims Uhuru will back him - on Baite Alfajiri If today Uhuru call Ruto and tell him to pick PK or Muhoho as runningmate in exchange for his support - MK would be dumped without a blink.

Why is PK the clear front-runner stooge? without Uhuru he is no match for MK or even Wa Irias - definitely no wit or cunning to manoeuvre BBI and GoK inner circles by himself. But now all doors seem to magically open for him. Ironically this make him a perfect stooge and marketable GEMA - akin to Mdvd safe-pair-of-hands. Those "camps" of Kagwe, Kimunya, Matiang'i are Tangatanga denial and hope.

Please come back to punditry.

[RV Pundit]

Kibra was not free and fair. Raila employed violence. We would have known how far it went. But Ruto is playing in Nairobi. 10yrs ago - he would be told were ni Jogoo ya mashambani. Now Ruto is legit in Nairobi slums.

Delusion is what Kichwa indulged in 2008-12 - claiming tribe is not critical as ODM Pentagon unraveled - folks were to vote on "issues" which only Raila represented.

Kibra is another example where reality was suspended. Luhya were suddenly 40% majority despite census; soccer stardom was to sweep all youth and eclipse tribe; machinery did not matter. Only thing that counted was Ruto handouts.

[Kichwa]

Thats a true representation of what I believed in at that time and Raila did win elections in 2007, 2013 and 2017. I was in the company of many Kenyans who voted for Raila and I do not feel bad for having believed in a democracy. What changed was what happened after Raila won in 2007, 2013 and 2017. Now most Kenyans like I know that winning the popular votes alone is not enough.    This is why most rational actors believe that  Raila has a better chance of being president from inside the government than from outside.  Raila has demonstrated many times that he has enough votes to win the presidency, the only thing that he now needs is a friendly government to install him into power once he wins.    Ruto is now out of power and the more his surrogates attack Mama Ngina, the further he moves outside the universe of power.  Ouru will have his last laugh after all these insults. He is probably laughing his ass off right now.

Delusion is what Kichwa indulged in 2008-12 - claiming tribe is not critical as ODM Pentagon unraveled - folks were to vote on "issues" which only Raila represented.

Kibra is another example where reality was suspended. Luhya were suddenly 40% majority despite census; soccer stardom was to sweep all youth and eclipse tribe; machinery did not matter. Only thing that counted was Ruto handouts.

[Nefertiti]

My point is machinery and tribe were as much a factor as any other time and place including 2022. Noone will vote for football star or hustler from different tribe. All is fair in love, war and politricks.

Kibra was not free and fair. Raila employed violence. We would have known how far it went. But Ruto is playing in Nairobi. 10yrs ago - he would be told were ni Jogoo ya mashambani. Now Ruto is legit in Nairobi slums.

Delusion is what Kichwa indulged in 2008-12 - claiming tribe is not critical as ODM Pentagon unraveled - folks were to vote on "issues" which only Raila represented.

Kibra is another example where reality was suspended. Luhya were suddenly 40% majority despite census; soccer stardom was to sweep all youth and eclipse tribe; machinery did not matter. Only thing that counted was Ruto handouts.

[Nefertiti]

It was a fantasy about free & fair democracy which Pundit is indulging now and projecting on me. Pundit was equally "shocked" that Kibicho cops ignored and abetted ODM thugs in Kibra.

Thats a true representation of what I believed in at that time and Raila did win elections in 2007, 2013 and 2017. I was in the company of many Kenyans who voted for Raila and I do not feel bad for having believed in a democracy. What changed was what happened after Raila won in 2007, 2013 and 2017. Now most Kenyans like I know that winning the popular votes alone is not enough.    This is why most rational actors believe that  Raila has a better chance of being president from inside the government than from outside.  Raila has demonstrated many times that he has enough votes to win the presidency, the only thing that he now needs is a friendly government to install him into power once he wins.    Ruto is now out of power and the more his surrogates attack Mama Ngina, the further he moves outside the universe of power.  Ouru will have his last laugh after all these insults. He is probably laughing his ass off right now.

Delusion is what Kichwa indulged in 2008-12 - claiming tribe is not critical as ODM Pentagon unraveled - folks were to vote on "issues" which only Raila represented.

Kibra is another example where reality was suspended. Luhya were suddenly 40% majority despite census; soccer stardom was to sweep all youth and eclipse tribe; machinery did not matter. Only thing that counted was Ruto handouts.

[RV Pundit]

Sonko defied tribe. There are many factors that is why we watch politics keenly so we can understand the movers and the shakers. Raila rose from Luo leader to National leader. Moi was once a national leader. Ruto is becoming a serious national leader able to raise crowds on his own. So keep watching. Tribe is very important but not in a silly way. Luhyas will not vote maDVD just because he is a candidate.

My point is machinery and tribe were as much a factor as any other time and place including 2022. Noone will vote for football star or hustler from different tribe. All is fair in love, war and politricks.

[Nefertiti]

"I did not see machinery coming"

[Nefertiti]

Sonko had to sell Uhuru the GEMA candidate - if he was on Wiper he would only get Kamba. He did not defy anything. Slum appeal or swag only give him edge over other local small fish - PKs, Kideros, Babu Owinos - not Ruto or Raila. Outside the slums he is a net turnoff on the balance - cause he lack Ruto or Raila finesse to camouflage the dark side. Even in a suit he still look like a thug. We thought this was campaign strategy - but quickly realized it his full potential - destined to be rich chokora. Ditto for Sakaja - Kikuyu voted him cause Uhuru - not some exotic appeal - Luhya cause of tribe. Now the fool claim to speak for Mandera - but forget he was hired by GEMA who will skin him alive in 2022.

Sonko defied tribe. There are many factors that is why we watch politics keenly so we can understand the movers and the shakers. Raila rose from Luo leader to National leader. Moi was once a national leader. Ruto is becoming a serious national leader able to raise crowds on his own. So keep watching. Tribe is very important but not in a silly way. Luhyas will not vote maDVD just because he is a candidate.

My point is machinery and tribe were as much a factor as any other time and place including 2022. Noone will vote for football star or hustler from different tribe. All is fair in love, war and politricks.

[RV Pundit]

Why didn't GEMA not vote their own including one Peter Kenneth - who is now the suprise candidate . You have jokes. Beyond tribal alignment - you need to stand for something. Nobody will elect a windsock to governor position. Now Sakaja has come of age. He just need to kiss the new power broker - Ruto or Kiunjuri or Baba - near 2022 - and he wins it.

2022 for Nairobi is interesting. In any case with BBI suppose to take away Nairobi back to national gov - why would Sakaja continue being a fool - and campaign for something they want to take it.

Sakaja can beat Sonko because Sonko has been wishy-washy - he need to pick a side - and stick with it. Sonko has also 'betrayed' the slum dogs.

Next person to watch maybe Jaguar...he is legit slum material, support Ruto and is a kikuyu. Unless he doesn't have a degree. I believe he going to be the man to beat.

Sonko had to sell Uhuru the GEMA candidate - if he was on Wiper he would only get Kamba. He did not defy anything. Slum appeal or swag only give him edge over other local small fish - PKs, Kideros, Babu Owinos - not Ruto or Raila. Outside the slums he is a net turnoff on the balance - cause he lack Ruto or Raila finesse to camouflage the dark side. Even in a suit he still look like a thug. We thought this was campaign strategy - but quickly realized it his full potential - destined to be rich chokora. Ditto for Sakaja - Kikuyu voted him cause Uhuru - not some exotic appeal - Luhya cause of tribe. Now the fool claim to speak for Mandera - but forget he was hired by GEMA who will skin him alive in 2022.

[Nefertiti]

PK is Uhuru STOOGE - meaning Gema will be voting to keep power in nyomba. He cannot stand on his own. Non-GEMA will vote for Raila not PK. Of course I don't agree with Njuri Ncheke that Ruto or any non-Gema can get direct Mt Kenya or Meru support. Kibaki was not Kalenjin so it apples and oranges analogy. If Ruto fail to pick Gema runningmate - he would default to typical Raila 5-10% Meru.

BBI has flopped - so Sonko, Wawerus, et al will square for governor. Despite the mistreatment Sonko still align with Handshake - and sing Uhuru - which quickly draw the line with naive fool Sakaja. I don't know much about Jaguar past his boring low-talent music. I have not seen his spark or "it" factor. He was MIA or barely visible in Embakasi South, Kibra showdowns. We will see.

Why didn't GEMA not vote their own including one Peter Kenneth - who is now the suprise candidate . You have jokes. Beyond tribal alignment - you need to stand for something. Nobody will elect a windsock to governor position. Now Sakaja has come of age. He just need to kiss the new power broker - Ruto or Kiunjuri or Baba - near 2022 - and he wins it.

2022 for Nairobi is interesting. In any case with BBI suppose to take away Nairobi back to national gov - why would Sakaja continue being a fool - and campaign for something they want to take it.

Sakaja can beat Sonko because Sonko has been wishy-washy - he need to pick a side - and stick with it. Sonko has also 'betrayed' the slum dogs.

Next person to watch maybe Jaguar...he is legit slum material, support Ruto and is a kikuyu. Unless he doesn't have a degree. I believe he going to be the man to beat.

Sonko had to sell Uhuru the GEMA candidate - if he was on Wiper he would only get Kamba. He did not defy anything. Slum appeal or swag only give him edge over other local small fish - PKs, Kideros, Babu Owinos - not Ruto or Raila. Outside the slums he is a net turnoff on the balance - cause he lack Ruto or Raila finesse to camouflage the dark side. Even in a suit he still look like a thug. We thought this was campaign strategy - but quickly realized it his full potential - destined to be rich chokora. Ditto for Sakaja - Kikuyu voted him cause Uhuru - not some exotic appeal - Luhya cause of tribe. Now the fool claim to speak for Mandera - but forget he was hired by GEMA who will skin him alive in 2022.

[Nowayhaha]

Robina whats with you and PK ? are you working in " PK HUB"? If so and incase you get to meet PK ask him about the person he met in S7 airlines and spent time together in Russia and watched Senegal game against Colombia and Brazil Vs Mexico . Ask him the feedback he received when he wanted to hear opinion of Kenyan politics .

[Nefertiti]

Robina whats with you and PK ? are you working in " PK HUB"? If so and incase you get to meet PK ask him about the person he met in S7 airlines and spent time together in Russia and watched Senegal game against Colombia and Brazil Vs Mexico . Ask him the feedback he received when he wanted to hear opinion of Kenyan politics .

Hapless PK has cultivated a trustworthy technocrat cum politician in Handshake circles. Teddy bear. MK seem to elicit vicious hostility and scorn at best. That all the feedback I need.