Author Topic: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?  (Read 1187 times)

Offline KenyanPlato

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dult literacy. How does one corona infection lead to 81 infections in 10 days? It has to do with exponential growth. I spent my lunch break yesterday trying to make a kid understand this concept. I have decided to go back to Gumbaru and educate myself so that I can teach this concept better.

Khan Academy offers the best Gumbaru for those in school and those out of school. When they tried to teach me this nonsense in high school and College I told them to take a hike. My argument was that all needed in life is abilty to sell Mali Mali and understanding mbei ya mboga na matunda sokoni. little did I know that without understanding this concept I would be the most uneducated moron in the world.

A lot of people are morons because they fail to understand this simple concept. That if you and your clan just keep on breeding like rabbits you will end up with depleted land and then you will wonder where did all the resources go. You grew exponentially and then depleted resources at a similar rate.

China and India are good examples of what not do with population growth. They are a cautionary tale that we cannot just give birth because we have the energy to do so. One thing Kenya needs is to have a population decay. We need to flatten our Growth Curve further. I think we PEAKED in population growth back in the early 1980s. That when the Kenyan elite went to reproductive health specialists and asked for contraceptives. You look at countries that didn't do what Kenya did in the 80s and 90s like Niaja you will see mayhem. Nigeria is now trying to get the IBUS of ENUGU to go slow on Cassava and give their women a break.

The Kenyan Millennial and Y generations need to vow not to have Kids. We need a childless generation or there will a lot of suffering in Kenya. Ignore My rant just watch the Gumbaru video

Two word problem examples: one about a radioactive decay, and the other the exponential growth of a fast-food chain.

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Exponential growth & decay word problems (video) | Khan Academy
Two word problem examples: one about a radioactive decay, and the other the exponential growth of a fast-food chain.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2020, 11:58:33 AM »
I think Malthusian theories of exponential pop growth has been proven to be wrong. We are not microbes or virus whose only job in the world is to reproduces. The human is difficult project that takes like 20yrs to mature. A virus is mature in a seconds :) and a cow is pretty much ready to live on it's own on the second day of birth.

Human big brain and walking upright - basically meant we had to sacrifices a lot of things - including nurturing a kid for a lifetime it would seem for some. This is unique compared to all organism.

What have been showed is that women and men will tend to have less kids when they are assured their offspring will live and live long.

Having many kids is more an insurance policy. It reason why people in war situations (or just out of war) tries to get as many kids. The American famous baby boom is thanks to WWII.

And so countries like Nigeria need to promote family planning but more importantly they need to fix child mortality.


Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2020, 02:43:46 PM »
I think Malthusian theories of exponential pop growth has been proven to be wrong. We are not microbes or virus whose only job in the world is to reproduces. The human is difficult project that takes like 20yrs to mature. A virus is mature in a seconds :) and a cow is pretty much ready to live on it's own on the second day of birth.

Human big brain and walking upright - basically meant we had to sacrifices a lot of things - including nurturing a kid for a lifetime it would seem for some. This is unique compared to all organism.

What have been showed is that women and men will tend to have less kids when they are assured their offspring will live and live long.

Having many kids is more an insurance policy. It reason why people in war situations (or just out of war) tries to get as many kids. The American famous baby boom is thanks to WWII.

And so countries like Nigeria need to promote family planning but more importantly they need to fix child mortality.

Yorubas have more kids because of Child Mortality? You talk a lot of NGO shit

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2020, 04:45:21 PM »
I think Malthusian theories of exponential pop growth has been proven to be wrong. We are not microbes or virus whose only job in the world is to reproduces. The human is difficult project that takes like 20yrs to mature. A virus is mature in a seconds :) and a cow is pretty much ready to live on it's own on the second day of birth.

Human big brain and walking upright - basically meant we had to sacrifices a lot of things - including nurturing a kid for a lifetime it would seem for some. This is unique compared to all organism.

What have been showed is that women and men will tend to have less kids when they are assured their offspring will live and live long.

Having many kids is more an insurance policy. It reason why people in war situations (or just out of war) tries to get as many kids. The American famous baby boom is thanks to WWII.

And so countries like Nigeria need to promote family planning but more importantly they need to fix child mortality.

Yorubas have more kids because of Child Mortality? You talk a lot of NGO shit

They still have a lot of kids even here in the states.  They face a lot of peer pressure to have many kids.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2020, 05:02:05 PM »
That why I asked pundit that question coz he likes NGOing topi

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2020, 05:06:10 PM »
Bitmask
Pundit has no exprience with west Africans like we do. They are the most ritualistic bastards in Africa. A whole doctor would skill believe in some voodoo shit and behaves like his house is still operating from 1700s culture. I have seen Nigerian priests leave a funeral memorial at a cathedral and then quickly change into a some type of sangoma and lead the procession of voodoism from the church gate to the burial ground.

having kids is just something these Negroes just enjoy. A Nigerian household has to have a baby every year. I have seen 60 years olds still impregnating their menopausal wives.

A yoruba is a luhyia on steroids

Anyway I studies Vodoo and it origins is Benin. Benin is where voodoo religion reigns.

A west African is a different African. He/she is creature totally different from the ones you find in East and central Africa

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2020, 05:17:50 PM »
Bitmask
Pundit has no exprience with west Africans like we do. They are the most ritualistic bastards in Africa. A whole doctor would skill believe in some voodoo shit and behaves like his house is still operating from 1700s culture. I have seen Nigerian priests leave a funeral memorial at a cathedral and then quickly change into a some type of sangoma and lead the procession of voodoism from the church gate to the burial ground.

having kids is just something these Negroes just enjoy. A Nigerian household has to have a baby every year. I have seen 60 years olds still impregnating their menopausal wives.

A yoruba is a luhyia on steroids

Anyway I studies Vodoo and it origins is Benin. Benin is where voodoo religion reigns.

A west African is a different African. He/she is creature totally different from the ones you find in East and central Africa

 :lolz: Very different breed indeed.  Baby naming is huge with these brodas.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline Garliv

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Re: COVID Modeling: Pundit how is the modeling done for Pandemics?
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2020, 11:51:40 PM »
Without prejudice, a Nigerian is the most "crudest" African out there. East Africans cannot handle these guys. However,  I just like their unbridled confidence even in their "crudest" mode. And oh my! they have total lack of sense of shame or balance!


Bitmask
Pundit has no exprience with west Africans like we do. They are the most ritualistic bastards in Africa. A whole doctor would skill believe in some voodoo shit and behaves like his house is still operating from 1700s culture. I have seen Nigerian priests leave a funeral memorial at a cathedral and then quickly change into a some type of sangoma and lead the procession of voodoism from the church gate to the burial ground.

having kids is just something these Negroes just enjoy. A Nigerian household has to have a baby every year. I have seen 60 years olds still impregnating their menopausal wives.

A yoruba is a luhyia on steroids

Anyway I studies Vodoo and it origins is Benin. Benin is where voodoo religion reigns.

A west African is a different African. He/she is creature totally different from the ones you find in East and central Africa