BBI 2.0 remain the big card yes. From endless praises of the process in Jan 2020 Uhuru seem very determined. Taskforce was extended and Raila is onto the legwork. It laughable to claim Raila-Uhuru combo would have any difficulty fast-tracking the process - 1m signatures (joke), IEBC (joke), 24 counties (joke), parliament (joke). MPs are Judases who only care about their interest as you saw Duale back parliamentary and desert Ruto in the hour of need. Parliamentary is very hard to beat in non-GEMA. With Speaker Muturi and the minority leaders and maybe even Duale it impossible to block or "sit" on the bill. In any case you don't even need numbers just a rejection and it roll over to referendum. Tough luck beating parliamentary and more devolution on the ground.
Kiunjuri and GEMA - Uhuru looks ready to persecute Tangatanga and keep them out of Mt Kenya. Look at Kuria lock-up and Susan Kihika in Nax. From the warnings of Kinyanjui and wa Iria about folks disrespecting Uhuru will not be allowed free reign in the mountain... it seem Tangatamga will face it rough. It very easy to kick Ruto and Kiunjuri out of GEMA especially Kikuyu. Now with all the goodies for farmers you see it will be hard to sell Ruto when Nyoro and Kuria are physically barred from holding rallies. Uhuru seem ruthless Moi-Jomo not lame Kibaki - I think you have mistook his silence before for weakness.
Jubilee & power levers - Uhuru has the GoK machinery yes. He also control judges through intimidation when push come to shove. Presidential run-off comes to mind - they brazenly executed Philomena Muilu driver and ensured there was no quorum.
Judiciary is only independent when there is no dirty war. But a determined PORK can manipulate them with his NIS and other tools. Parliament you can save it please - MP allegiance depends on
interests. In the case of BBI/parliamentary Ruto is in the minority. Jubilee Party of course is a conundrum. PORK has the muscle to either block the polls or mess with them altogether by forcing his guys in. This Imperial PORK can do anything... see all these intimidated governors have all lined up behind BBI. If he can lock DPORK out of his official residence - what difficult about kicking him out of the party? Ironially it is reforming this same Almighty PORK tha you vehemently oppose? It self- defeating.
Uhuru will likely enter a coalition with Raila and Kalonzos/Mdvd crew as Party Leader - ahead of 2022 before or after referendum - and Ruto has no shortage of choices for party. Tanga Tanga Party, United Green Movement, name it. Problem is against Uhuru-for-PM and Raila running circles in non-GEMA - it will be a mountain for him.
What Nyahunyo can he really unleash when he is becoming lame-duck everyday. Maybe he unleashes an assassination squad otherwise as long as the GEMA people are anti-Raila he is wasting time, energy and strategy. I think Kiunjuri need to take war to him now. As for Lee - he knows his time is up - and Kihika daughter will sweep the floor with him & Mbugua. Nakuru is the const you want to least annoy Ruto because Kalenjin makes nearly 40% of the vote (if not more).
As of now Uhuru has executive authority - Ruto has parliament - and Judiciary is out there. Ruto has the Jubilee party and majority support of Jubilee members.Anyway let see first how Jubilee elections will go. Then we get BBI 2.0. And then we take it from there.
Ruto best strategy is to bid time - to survive 2020 - and then 2021 it full campaign mode - and Uhuru will be forgotten - as lame-duck failure (farmers failure is a shadow because his big 4 is becoming a BIG JOKE) - as Raila get blamed for messing up Jubilee and hustler narrative is unleashed.
Ruto just need to ensure the constitution is not amended (increasingly becoming impossible - considering the timelines needed to come up with new constitution - have BBI2.0 come up with executive pm in parliamentary system - we can live with that , collect 1m signatures, have the signatures verified by IEBC, have the bill prepared approved in 24 counties, have it go to parliament for a vote (or to be sat on) - both houses, have it frustrated by judicial injunctions along the way with Omtaha already on it, have IEBC funded to conduct the referendum)-
Ruto should avoid attacking Uhuru directly - Just deflect and attack Raila. Continue with shadow boxing - until Uhuru makes it clear - via constitutional referendum that he is in the ring - and then Ruto can stop pulling punches.
