Kenya economy to cross 100B dollars - as Magufuli growth strutter to 3.9%

[hk]

Both Ghana and Ethiopia are still doing great - growing at near double digit, have dealt poverty a huge blow and are some of fastest growing economies even now. Jubilee have grown the economy to 100B dollars...in what six years...in 10yrs...they would have managed to grow  it to 150B.

Ghana growth slowed to 3.5% before the bailout. Barely keeping up with population growth. The point is without the reckless budget deficit the economy would have maintained high growth rates. To reignite growth the government had to do course reversal. Kenyans don't need a lot from government to thrive, just need responsible(not crowding out private sector) and free economy. Last yr growth of 5.8% is actually slow given all the supposedly stimulus being pumped into the economy in terms of spending.

[RV Pundit]

Ghana is set to grow at 8.8% the world fastest growing economy in the world in 2019. We need to copy that. They are literally flying. Now they've overtaken TZ - despite being less than 30M. Their GDP per capita (ppp) is approaching 5k.
https://www.dw.com/en/imf-world-economic-outlook-puts-ghana-in-the-lead/a-48356052

The public investment is tried and tested model - look at China. It works. It lifts many out of poverty. Tricke-down economics don't work at our stage of development. There is nothing to trickle down.

Gov has to massively invest in bridging the infrastructure deficit, we have to massively invest in education & health (long term investments with payback in 20-30yrs) - the same with stuff like railways, superhighways - these things don't pay immediately - but long term - they pay off. Look at south africa - they still relie on huge infrastructure built by boers. Look at US - the last major infrastructure was done in 1950s - all the freeways and expressways --  the thing is once you've closed the infrastructure gap - gov can then relax and let the private sector do it's magic.

Ghana growth slowed to 3.5% before the bailout. Barely keeping up with population growth. The point is without the reckless budget deficit the economy would have maintained high growth rates. To reignite growth the government had to do course reversal. Kenyans don't need a lot from government to thrive, just need responsible(not crowding out private sector) and free economy. Last yr growth of 5.8% is actually slow given all the supposedly stimulus being pumped into the economy in terms of spending.

[Nefertiti]

Please explain. Growth p.a. at 5.6% average over 5 yrs. Regressing 100B comes to 75B. Not 55B like you have been plastering here. Obviously the economy has not doubled under Jubilee.

You're now inventing your own facts.

Absolutely. Jubilee picked at 75B... 5.6% annual growth cannot amount to 100% over 5yrs. Simple math.

[hk]

Ghana is set to grow at 8.8% the world fastest growing economy in the world in 2019. We need to copy that. They are literally flying. Now they've overtaken TZ - despite being less than 30M. Their GDP per capita (ppp) is approaching 5k.
https://www.dw.com/en/imf-world-economic-outlook-puts-ghana-in-the-lead/a-48356052

The public investment is tried and tested model - look at China. It works. It lifts many out of poverty. Tricke-down economics don't work at our stage of development. There is nothing to trickle down.

Gov has to massively invest in bridging the infrastructure deficit, we have to massively invest in education & health (long term investments with payback in 20-30yrs) - the same with stuff like railways, superhighways - these things don't pay immediately - but long term - they pay off. Look at south africa - they still relie on huge infrastructure built by boers. Look at US - the last major infrastructure was done in 1950s - all the freeways and expressways --  the thing is once you've closed the infrastructure gap - gov can then relax and let the private sector do it's magic.

Ghana isn't growing at 8.8% by binge investing in infrastructure, actually Ghana is being very prudent lowering their budget deficit to 4.2% from 9%. Also unlike kenya investing in SGR which hasn't lowered cost of transport, Ghana invests in necessary infrastructure which isn't overpriced. Check the cost of roads in kenya vs ghana. Ghana crashed yet at least they hadn't inflated cost of project. Imagine what will happen to kenya with combination of lack of fiscal responsibilities and corruption? No one argues against infrastructure investment, the question is how and at what expense.

[Nefertiti]

Ghana isn't growing at 8.8% by binge investing in infrastructure, actually Ghana is being very prudent lowering their budget deficit to 4.2% from 9%. Also unlike kenya investing in SGR which hasn't lowered cost of transport, Ghana invests in necessary infrastructure which isn't overpriced. Check the cost of roads in kenya vs ghana. Ghana crashed yet at least they hadn't inflated cost of project. Imagine what will happen to kenya with combination of lack of fiscal responsibilities and corruption? No one argues against infrastructure investment, the question is how and at what expense.

Yup. Kenya does not need super-expensive SGR which has never stopped any investor from setting shop upstream in the past. The math will keep the trucks firmly on the road. Infrastructure needs paring with capacity of utility - which is lacking in Kenya - we are like a watchie driving a fuel guzzler. Investment especially on 100% foreign debt needs to be frugal, economical and very strategic. Poor Kenyans will pay through the nose for these poor choices.

[hk]

Another sign that the economy is struggling https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Taxman-collects-Sh1trn-in-Q3/3946234-5083100-v6yx95z/index.html . Kra was supposed to collect 1.6t, it has collected 1t for 3 quarters. Meaning its on average collecting $3.3b a quarter. That was before drought and the consequent inflation pressure on basic goods. Most likely actual budget deficit will be about 8 to 9%. This is nosebleed level. The confluence of budget deficit, debts,inflation,corruption etc may have disastrous outcome. If I was a betting man I'd short Kenya shilling. At some point the dam will break.

[RV Pundit]

Be careful with data. Collection have risen by nearly double digit compared to last year. Another extra 70B - so far. So I don't know why you always want to fudge data. Most companies close their books in march - and so KRA will be collecting a lot of money in the next few months - and so expect this year total collection to be more than 1.6 trillion

Another sign that the economy is struggling https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Taxman-collects-Sh1trn-in-Q3/3946234-5083100-v6yx95z/index.html . Kra was supposed to collect 1.6t, it has collected 1t for 3 quarters. Meaning its on average collecting $3.3b a quarter. That was before drought and the consequent inflation pressure on basic goods. Most likely actual budget deficit will be about 8 to 9%. This is nosebleed level. The confluence of budget deficit, debts,inflation,corruption etc may have disastrous outcome. If I was a betting man I'd short Kenya shilling. At some point the dam will break.

[hk]

Be careful with data. Collection have risen by nearly double digit compared to last year. Another extra 70B - so far. So I don't know why you always want to fudge data. Most companies close their books in march - and so KRA will be collecting a lot of money in the next few months - and so expect this year total collection to be more than 1.6 trillion

Another sign that the economy is struggling https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Taxman-collects-Sh1trn-in-Q3/3946234-5083100-v6yx95z/index.html . Kra was supposed to collect 1.6t, it has collected 1t for 3 quarters. Meaning its on average collecting $3.3b a quarter. That was before drought and the consequent inflation pressure on basic goods. Most likely actual budget deficit will be about 8 to 9%. This is nosebleed level. The confluence of budget deficit, debts,inflation,corruption etc may have disastrous outcome. If I was a betting man I'd short Kenya shilling. At some point the dam will break.

Tax collections in the nine months ended March 2019 rose by a modest 8.62 percent compared to a year earlier, leaving the taxman with a Sh585.27 billion gap to bridge in three months to meet full-year target . How's that double digits? Mind you treasury raised taxes on fuel,airtime, money transfer etc. and still can't meet target. Heavy hitters like equity bank have already paid https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Equity-Bank-profit-hits-Sh19bn/4003102-5044096-usl9euz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

You can be very dishonest to make a point like so called PHD in Africa Economics Dr Ndii. 8.6% is nearly double digit growth. I guess you deliberately missed the world nearly. There is nothing to indicate that KRA will not exceed last year collections of nearly 1.5 trillion kshs this year. The delayed rains have finally come - and things will be back to normal soon.

Tax collections in the nine months ended March 2019 rose by a modest 8.62 percent compared to a year earlier, leaving the taxman with a Sh585.27 billion gap to bridge in three months to meet full-year target [/glow] . How's that double digits? Mind you treasury raised taxes on fuel,airtime, money transfer etc. and still can't meet target. Heavy hitters like equity bank have already paid https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Equity-Bank-profit-hits-Sh19bn/4003102-5044096-usl9euz/index.html

[GeeMail]

Pundit can help us spin the puzzle with another ethereal MOASS.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001322712/where-did-rotich-get-the-growth-numbers

Maybe from OT Morpho (Idemia - yet to change its name once more)?

[RV Pundit]

6.3% is pretty impressive. Highest the last 8 yrs. What there to spin.

Pundit can help us spin the puzzle with another ethereal MOASS.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001322712/where-did-rotich-get-the-growth-numbers

Maybe from OT Morpho (Idemia - yet to change its name once more)?

[Omollo]

I have to say I am surprised by the position taken by HK lately. I was ready to mildly cast him as a GEMA apologist who will amplify the little good that Uhuru accidentally did and minimize the gargantuan evil he deliberately committed. That role is no longer HK's our own Pundit having taken it with his well known alacrity.

It is always uncomfortable to discuss handles here as one risks an attack from Omollo raising the ad hominem thing. Some criticism is due anyway.

That said  I have struggled to find the "antonym" for Crying louder than the bereaved without success. I even thought of saying something like "cheering the away team" but then Pundit is the Last Remaining Soldier of Jubilee. Like I stood alone in KANU long after it had been dumped by the likes of Ruto. I thought anytime now it will be back to normal...

There is this story of a Mnyore woman who seeing the husband dying decided to cut off the dick and hid it. During mourning she sung a song which basically said though the man is dead, she has her "cleverness" well hidden. She will enjoy no end once he is buried.

Well, the man was buried and when she went to take her cleverness, she found it decomposed.

Jubilee is dead. It was a vehicle to get Uhuru back in. It was also the first step for GEMA to engineer a way of dumping Ruto without repercussions. Ruto has zero power in Jubilee which is controlled by Uhuru's hounds.

The economy is dead, thanks to corruption. We are between death, burial and the moment the Mnyore lady goes to fetch her stored cleverness.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo, don't mix economy with politics.

Economy is firing on all it's cylinder. Only problem is commercial bank loans - credit freeze - but the crazy tech lending has pretty much taken care of that - diaspora are sending money, fdi is flowing (Tech alone last year got about 40B dollars), gov is investing big time in roads, railways and dams, agriculture last year was really good, so was tourism, and manufacturing is pretty much making for lost ground.

I have to say I am surprised by the position taken by HK lately. I was ready to mildly cast him as a GEMA apologist who will amplify the little good that Uhuru accidentally did and minimize the gargantuan evil he deliberately committed. That role is no longer HK's our own Pundit having taken it with his well known alacrity.

It is always uncomfortable to discuss handles here as one risks an attack from Omollo raising the ad hominem thing. Some criticism is due anyway.

That said  I have struggled to find the "antonym" for Crying louder than the bereaved without success. I even thought of saying something like "cheering the away team" but then Pundit is the Last Remaining Soldier of Jubilee. Like I stood alone in KANU long after it had been dumped by the likes of Ruto. I thought anytime now it will be back to normal...

There is this story of a Mnyore woman who seeing the husband dying decided to cut off the dick and hid it. During mourning she sung a song which basically said though the man is dead, she has her "cleverness" well hidden. She will enjoy no end once he is buried.

Well, the man was buried and when she went to take her cleverness, she found it decomposed.

Jubilee is dead. It was a vehicle to get Uhuru back in. It was also the first step for GEMA to engineer a way of dumping Ruto without repercussions. Ruto has zero power in Jubilee which is controlled by Uhuru's hounds.

The economy is dead, thanks to corruption. We are between death, burial and the moment the Mnyore lady goes to fetch her stored cleverness.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I have to say I am surprised by the position taken by HK lately. I was ready to mildly cast him as a GEMA apologist who will amplify the little good that Uhuru accidentally did and minimize the gargantuan evil he deliberately committed. That role is no longer HK's our own Pundit having taken it with his well known alacrity.

It is always uncomfortable to discuss handles here as one risks an attack from Omollo raising the ad hominem thing. Some criticism is due anyway.

That said  I have struggled to find the "antonym" for Crying louder than the bereaved without success. I even thought of saying something like "cheering the away team" but then Pundit is the Last Remaining Soldier of Jubilee. Like I stood alone in KANU long after it had been dumped by the likes of Ruto. I thought anytime now it will be back to normal...

There is this story of a Mnyore woman who seeing the husband dying decided to cut off the dick and hid it. During mourning she sung a song which basically said though the man is dead, she has her "cleverness" well hidden. She will enjoy no end once he is buried.

Well, the man was buried and when she went to take her cleverness, she found it decomposed.

Jubilee is dead. It was a vehicle to get Uhuru back in. It was also the first step for GEMA to engineer a way of dumping Ruto without repercussions. Ruto has zero power in Jubilee which is controlled by Uhuru's hounds.

The economy is dead, thanks to corruption. We are between death, burial and the moment the Mnyore lady goes to fetch her stored cleverness.

My take on HK is someone who gathers a set of coherent facts before arriving at a conclusion.  So he is not vulnerable gaslighting.