Kenya economy to cross 100B dollars - as Magufuli growth strutter to 3.9%

[RV Pundit]

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Jubilee iko juu.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/IMF-tips-Kenya-economy-to-hit-Sh10trn-this-year/539546-5072338-58942lz/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Here we go again with false narratives. Your Newfoundland obsession - &  "corruption is not harmful" and other Ruto maxims are things you float at Mavoko bar - not nipate. As I said, the popularity of an item is not vindication. Most vices are widespread & ubiquitous - including corruption, immorality, tribalism, racism, etc - yet their nefarious effect is abundant for us to see. You posted here that corruption is generosity and part of African culture. William Ruto is Eve - or in fact the snake - gullible Wanjiku is Adam. Kenya will pay the wholesome price of the seeds of sin this High Priest of Evil is planting.

[patel]

Hard to figure out kenya economy I tell you. Every city centre i visit  lots of construction and second hand cars, imported off course.  However, demand for cement and building materials has gone down matter of fact couple cement manufacturers are staring at bankruptcy. Property market overloaded with units that they have failed to move, everyone is a property broker in these streets. Unemployment I would put it around 60% or higher mainly because everyone that has a job is carrying at least 4 -5 unemployed relatives not including old retired parents. Hard to make sense of this economy.

[Nefertiti]

Learn to be economical with the truth Bw patel 

[RV Pundit]

Economy is doing so well it now the 3rd biggest in Sub Sahara Africa.

[Nefertiti]

Economy is doing so well it now the 3rd biggest in Sub Sahara Africa.

What does this have to do with corruption?

[Nefertiti]

Economy is doing so well it now the 3rd biggest in Sub Sahara Africa.

There is a fool called Bob Collymore who wows investors - with shiny marketshare slides of Safaricom vs Telkom. One day the spinner was challenged to show Safcom v Facebook - 30M v 2B customers- 3 v 300 products - since afterall his vision is global? Wasn't his top talent fished far and wide - from across the Atlantic?

"Sub Sahara" is a derogatory for lowest-of-the-lowest standards. It's very difficult to trail South Sudan, DR Congo or Somalia. Saying you merely trail the ultra-corrupt, conflict-pragued Nigeria or the racialized, xenophobic SA is disingenuous. Try Africa - then pole pole graduate to compare with Brazil, Mexico na etc - emerging markets - places where life is bearable and you don't need to qualify where on the map that is. For now we are not even considered a market yet - more like a dump - from which we are yet to emerge. We are "others" - nothing to brag about.

[hk]

I think its getting better to estimate the size of kenya economy. More of kenya informal economy is being captured via mobile money, fintech, agency banking etc. Which means this is just rebasing of kenya economy. From 2013 the kenya economy has average 5.5% growth which isn't sufficient to double the economy size from 2013 to 2019. The new industries that were there that have prospered are gambling, bodaboda, gig economy with uber and little, and maybe fintech(due to capping of interest rates).  The bulwark of the economy, trade, agriculture, manufacturing and services have stagnated.  Jubilee now will use this excuse to borrow even more even though kra is having problems collecting more taxes despite raising taxes.

[RV Pundit]

We are the leading non-mineral economy in Africa and now 3rd biggest in SSA. We are in SSA - so whatever is bedeviling SSA - we also face it - including ignorance, disease and poverty. Kenya has done relatively well.

There is a fool called Bob Collymore who wows investors - with shiny marketshare slides of Safaricom vs Telkom. One day the spinner was challenged to show Safcom v Facebook - 30M v 2B customers- 3 v 300 products - since afterall his vision is global? Wasn't his top talent fished far and wide - from across the Atlantic?

"Sub Sahara" is a derogatory for lowest-of-the-lowest standards. It's very difficult to trail South Sudan, DR Congo or Somalia. Saying you merely trail the ultra-corrupt, conflict-pragued Nigeria or the racialized, xenophobic SA is disingenuous. Try Africa - then pole pole graduate to compare with Brazil, Mexico na etc - emerging markets - places where life is bearable and you don't need to qualify where on the map that is. For now we are not even considered a market yet - more like a dump - from which we are yet to emerge. We are "others" - nothing to brag about.

[RV Pundit]

The economy has doubled. Tax collections has also doubled. Nominal GDP from 55B to 100B. Tax collections from 8B to 16B - with total gov revenues crossing 20B. We are proected to hit 150B by time Uhuru leaves - with gov revenues at 30B - and gov budget maybe around 60B then. That is what Uhuru will hand over to Ruto. He would have done an excellent job - way better than the economist Kibaki. Of course, all could go to smoke if he brings Raila makelele to gov.

Generally, I feel the quality of life is getting better and better for Kenyans. Of course, you still see a lot of desperations and alcoholism amongst a few youths when you visit villages - but for anyone else who is serious - things are looking up. Nearly every kid now gets to high schools, admission to TIVET is ramping up, there are new tarmacs everywhere, counties have also done a great job with murram roads on the last miles, there is electricity everywhere, boda bodas are ubiquitous, m-pesa has simplified life, earning from tea/horticulture are keeping up with inflations, people are building better houses, new towns are cropping up and generally there is a positive vibe. There is still not enough formal jobs - but informal jobs are earning about the same if not more money than many formal jobs.

I think its getting better to estimate the size of kenya economy. More of kenya informal economy is being captured via mobile money, fintech, agency banking etc. Which means this is just rebasing of kenya economy. From 2013 the kenya economy has average 5.5% growth which isn't sufficient to double the economy size from 2013 to 2019. The new industries that were there that have prospered are gambling, bodaboda, gig economy with uber and little, and maybe fintech(due to capping of interest rates).  The bulwark of the economy, trade, agriculture, manufacturing and services have stagnated.  Jubilee now will use this excuse to borrow even more even though kra is having problems collecting more taxes despite raising taxes.

[hk]

The economy has doubled. Tax collections has also doubled. Nominal GDP from 55B to 100B. Tax collections from 8B to 16B - with total gov revenues crossing 20B. We are proected to hit 150B by time Uhuru leaves - with gov revenues at 30B - and gov budget maybe around 60B then. That is what Uhuru will hand over to Ruto. He would have done an excellent job - way better than the economist Kibaki. Of course, all could go to smoke if he brings Raila makelele to gov.

Generally, I feel the quality of life is getting better and better for Kenyans. Of course, you still see a lot of desperations and alcoholism amongst a few youths when you visit villages - but for anyone else who is serious - things are looking up. Nearly every kid now gets to high schools, admission to TIVET is ramping up, there are new tarmacs everywhere, counties have also done a great job with murram roads on the last miles, there is electricity everywhere, boda bodas are ubiquitous, m-pesa has simplified life, earning from tea/horticulture are keeping up with inflations, people are building better houses, new towns are cropping up and generally there is a positive vibe. There is still not enough formal jobs - but informal jobs are earning about the same if not more money than many formal jobs.

Jubilee hasn't doubled the economy. It only means the economy they inherited was around 70b. jubilee borrowed the stimulus package uhuru had deployed when he was minister for finance and turbo charged it by big spending and borrowing. However productivity hasn't increased significantly to affect incomes. So there's no "positive vibe" for most common wananchi and businessman. Other than the big financial banks loading on tbills and safaricom, most other companies have issued profit warnings. In a booming economy that wouldn't be happening.

[RV Pundit]

Rebasing hasn't been done - Jubilee re-based Kibaki anemic growth (his last term was basically 1.7% - max of 4%) - and the figures now look good. Wait until Jubilee growth is rebased - they will probably all be at 10% - double-digit - I think rebasing will happen very soon - after the census.

Kibaki depended entirely on the private sector. That was the attempt to fly an airplane with one engine - it didn't go far. Jubilee has put another engine to the economy -  public sector investment - for example, big-ticket projects SGR - now 5B dollars worth of investment & it's a multiplier. Counties are also helping with fund utilization - not a lot of court cases and shenanigans - and just like CDF - it's development is visible.

Yes, the private sector may suffer -during turbulence - but when you have public investment like China or Ethiopia - then you can be sure the economy will keep growing and growing.

We still have huge INFRASTRUCTURE deficit of I think 3-5B dollars annually - that we need to really work on. We are going to work on housing sector it appears - with deduction starting with month - but we still need to work on roads, rails and pipelines.

My hope is during Ruto PORK - we will privatize all the major cash cows of gov - and use the money to develop infrastructure. We also should not be afraid to borrow - esp from China and IMF/WB.

Once we have built all the infrastructure we need - we can then worry about the cost of running and the maintaining it - which doesn't cost a lot of money - and we can start kibakiconomics - of low taxes, deregulations.

Once everyone has electricity - we can start to think about subsidizing a lot more for industrial and SMEs.

Once we improve our very bad road network ( % of paved roads I think is still less than 20%)  - we need to invest hugely there - the same with rails - with pipelines - with water & dams.

Jubilee hasn't doubled the economy. It only means the economy they inherited was around 70b. jubilee borrowed the stimulus package uhuru had deployed when he was minister for finance and turbo charged it by big spending and borrowing. However productivity hasn't increased significantly to affect incomes. So there's no "positive vibe" for most common wananchi and businessman. Other than the big financial banks loading on tbills and safaricom, most other companies have issued profit warnings. In a booming economy that wouldn't be happening.

[Nefertiti]

"Mvua inatoka mbinguni." - William Ruto, PhD wetlands, defending the destruction of the Mau forest, 2009.

[RV Pundit]

Nonsense - you're scrapping the bottom of the barrel - that was Kanu mp sang. And beside current drought has nothing to do with Mau - but bigger global events. Turkana use to be green in some thousands of years - and stone age man - did nothing - but it turned into a desert.

"Mvua inatoka mbinguni." - William Ruto, PhD wetlands, defending the destruction of the Mau forest, 2009.

[Nefertiti]

Jubilee hasn't doubled the economy. It only means the economy they inherited was around 70b. jubilee borrowed the stimulus package uhuru had deployed when he was minister for finance and turbo charged it by big spending and borrowing. However productivity hasn't increased significantly to affect incomes. So there's no "positive vibe" for most common wananchi and businessman. Other than the big financial banks loading on tbills and safaricom, most other companies have issued profit warnings. In a booming economy that wouldn't be happening.

Absolutely. Jubilee picked at 75B... 5.6% annual growth cannot amount to 100% over 5yrs. Simple math.

[Kadudu]

I have been there and Kenya's industrial production is a joke compared to Egypt's.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Egypt was worth 235.37 billion US dollars in 2017.

https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/gdp

Economy is doing so well it now the 3rd biggest  :oin Sub Sahara Africa.

[RV Pundit]

Egypt is not part of sub-sahara - it's part of magreb or supra-sahara.

I have been there and Kenya's industrial production is a joke compared to Egypt's.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Egypt was worth 235.37 billion US dollars in 2017.

https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/gdp

Economy is doing so well it now the 3rd biggest  :oin Sub Sahara Africa.

[RV Pundit]

You're now inventing your own facts.

Absolutely. Jubilee picked at 75B... 5.6% annual growth cannot amount to 100% over 5yrs. Simple math.

[hk]

Ethiopia after it went on spending spree had to be bailed out by qatar. Now its being forced to liberalize and sell its crown jewels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/ethiopia-economy-imbalanced-needs-corrective-actions-abiy-says . Ghana after ratcheting up budget deficits to 9% it had to bailed out by IMF https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/ghana-plans-to-keep-imf-scrutiny-after-bailout-program-ends . Both countries were recording high GDP growth before the bailouts. You can't defy economic laws forever. Kenya is running high budget deficits  https://tradingeconomics.com/kenya/government-budget ,  massive debts and obviously corruption. The looming drought might trigger economic meltdown that will require bailouts.

[RV Pundit]

Both Ghana and Ethiopia are still doing great - growing at near double digit, have dealt poverty a huge blow and are some of fastest growing economies even now. Jubilee have grown the economy to 100B dollars...in what six years...in 10yrs...they would have managed to grow  it to 150B.

Ethiopia after it went on spending spree had to be bailed out by qatar. Now its being forced to liberalize and sell its crown jewels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/ethiopia-economy-imbalanced-needs-corrective-actions-abiy-says . Ghana after ratcheting up budget deficits to 9% it had to bailed out by IMF https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/ghana-plans-to-keep-imf-scrutiny-after-bailout-program-ends . Both countries were recording high GDP growth before the bailouts. You can't defy economic laws forever. Kenya is running high budget deficits  https://tradingeconomics.com/kenya/government-budget ,  massive debts and obviously corruption. The looming drought might trigger economic meltdown that will require bailouts.

Ethiopia after it went on spending spree had to be bailed out by qatar. Now its being forced to liberalize and sell its crown jewels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/ethiopia-economy-imbalanced-needs-corrective-actions-abiy-says . Ghana after ratcheting up budget deficits to 9% it had to bailed out by IMF https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/ghana-plans-to-keep-imf-scrutiny-after-bailout-program-ends . Both countries were recording high GDP growth before the bailouts. You can't defy economic laws forever. Kenya is running high budget deficits  https://tradingeconomics.com/kenya/government-budget ,  massive debts and obviously corruption. The looming drought might trigger economic meltdown that will require bailouts.