Watching Ruto break it down - Brilliant as ever - Kenya is lucky to have him

[RV Pundit]

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We've got our meles zenawi and if Ruto keep at it for 10yrs - Kenya will overtake South Africa.

[RV Pundit]

Masai came with all canoon fooder but Ruto is on another level.

[Pragmatic]

SGR will break even in the next 2 years?? Really....? What sort of business does Ruto run/do? Does he understand break-even? Well, the business of shaking down (a 10% or the other) is very lucrative, you don't have to bother of top-line and bottom line. That railway wont break even even in 25years... and for the next 15yrs whatever its earning will only go towards servicing the interest on our loan, not anywhere near the principal. He would have been better off to say that infrastructure is key for a country's desire for development but that it will break even and be in profit zone in the next 2 years....isnt that the joke of the century??

And really there goes one of the most rudderless and uninspiring interviews I have watched ... the interviewer was either scared or in a hurry to read off the list of queries he had. Stage fright for landing a big gig? Nothing of substance came off that interview; and the biggest fraud was the ".... look into the camera and tell Kenyans that you have never defrauded.....". I would not want to be in Ruto's shoes even just the mere impression of being asked to make such a statement.

[RV Pundit]

There you go with nonsense - Chinese who gave us the loans - did their calculation - and they gave us 5 yrs to start repaying the principal. I think from what I have heard - as soon as SGR hit 10M metric tonnes annual - that will be break-even-point. That amount of cargo will be enough to repay construction cost( principal+interest (amortized to 40yrs!!)) and the running/operational cost. We were projected to hit 10M in 5yrs - but as of now - we will hit in 3yrs - 2yrs earlier. And beside if worst come to worst..that LOAN is insured. So we are OKAY.

The 10% most politician rationalize as consultancy or helping chinese go through gov red-tape/bottleneck. That is how Wanjigi use to make his money and that is probably Ruto gig. He can argue it's not theft or corruption.  Without someone looking out for SGR - stories like standard sensational bullshiet about chinese sitting on their table or van (who bloody cares) or some wildlife or
conservation nonsense would kill such a dream infrastructural investment.

Mark Masai next time should understand that WSR is not run of the mill politician you face with cheap politics. He need to come prepare to argue serious stuff.

SGR will break even in the next 2 years?? Really....? What sort of business does Ruto run/do? Does he understand break-even? Well, the business of shaking down (a 10% or the other) is very lucrative, you don't have to bother of top-line and bottom line. That railway wont break even even in 25years... and for the next 15yrs whatever its earning will only go towards servicing the interest on our loan, not anywhere near the principal. He would have been better off to say that infrastructure is key for a country's desire for development but that it will break even and be in profit zone in the next 2 years....isnt that the joke of the century??

And really there goes one of the most rudderless and uninspiring interviews I have watched ... the interviewer was either scared or in a hurry to read off the list of queries he had. Stage fright for landing a big gig? Nothing of substance came off that interview; and the biggest fraud was the ".... look into the camera and tell Kenyans that you have never defrauded.....". I would not want to be in Ruto's shoes even just the mere impression of being asked to make such a statement.

[RV Pundit]

Infact the break-even-point is mere 5.5M metric tonnes.

[Pragmatic]

Not so fast!! Nonsense is exactly what you are saying.

Understand some basics.... the fact that we have a 5 year or is it now 3 year "grace period" doesn't mean that we don't pay it, it is simply delayed for you to get ready to start paying. Pundit, this railway is not for FREE! Insurance does not mean that we can default and we are ok!!! You rightly say that Treasury has given a guarantee. That means that we have given a sovereign guarantee to it and the Chinese will come for it and any other assets when we start defaulting like they have done with the port in Sri Lanka. Break even is when you are running a commercial enterprise and your REVENUE (Top-line) is matching your CAPEX & OPEX (I am sure you are aware of this). If we have amortised our repayment to 40yrs, i was just about right in saying the railway won't break even in 25yrs. For the first 18yrs we are only paying the interest to our loan (from the cargo volume revenues), not even the principal.... The principal repayments will have to be subsidised from other sources (taxes??); how is that breaking even?? If I am breaking even in year 3 of my loan solely from the project's returns, why stretch the repayment to 40yrs, why not pay it by year 7 for example?

Simply speaking, you are better off saying that this is a public (utility) infrastructure and typically is not quite a commercial venture in the strictest manner; but then the decision to invest in such must be guided by the cost benefit justification and our ability to pay for it from the exchequer (also called; taxes collected) without compromising other public services availability.

Do some bit of understanding of some of these concepts in international trade financing and sovereign guarantees (euphemism G2G - government to government for our Chinese loans).... we just escaped by a whisker with being slammed with a Shs. 30b demand on the Kinangop Wind project because the claimants couldn't sustain the argument that the "letter of comfort" by Treasury amounted to a guarantee by GoK. We were very very lucky on that. Turkana Wind is already cashing in on our GoK guarantee for their power even though it is not yet being delivered to the grid.

Where do 10m metric tonnes of cargo come from? Last I heard, we are struggling to hit our numbers... the reason why the government has been forcing importers to put their cargo on SGR even when it is uneconomical for some.

[RV Pundit]

I have done my bit to understand SGR - and I reckon that Nairobi-MSA is beyond doubt viable. These other sections to Naivasha has doubtful viability. Half the cargo in Mombasa terminate in Nairobi. The section all the way to Malaba - basically depend on Uganda/South Sudan traffic.

MSA-NBO -320B - will easily be repaid - if you amortized that loan to 4yrs - with half of it on nearly zero interest & other on 4%( or less) - then surely by 2060 -  SGR/KR will have repaid the loan - without treasury chipping in as the guarantor.

Not so fast!! Nonsense is exactly what you are saying.

Understand some basics.... the fact that we have a 5 year or is it now 3 year "grace period" doesn't mean that we don't pay it, it is simply delayed for you to get ready to start paying. Pundit, this railway is not for FREE! Insurance does not mean that we can default and we are ok!!! You rightly say that Treasury has given a guarantee. That means that we have given a sovereign guarantee to it and the Chinese will come for it and any other assets when we start defaulting like they have done with the port in Sri Lanka. Break even is when you are running a commercial enterprise and your REVENUE (Top-line) is matching your CAPEX & OPEX (I am sure you are aware of this). If we have amortised our repayment to 40yrs, i was just about right in saying the railway won't break even in 25yrs. For the first 18yrs we are only paying the interest to our loan (from the cargo volume revenues), not even the principal.... The principal repayments will have to be subsidised from other sources (taxes??); how is that breaking even?? If I am breaking even in year 3 of my loan solely from the project's returns, why stretch the repayment to 40yrs, why not pay it by year 7 for example?

Simply speaking, you are better off saying that this is a public (utility) infrastructure and typically is not quite a commercial venture in the strictest manner; but then the decision to invest in such must be guided by the cost benefit justification and our ability to pay for it from the exchequer (also called; taxes collected) without compromising other public services availability.

Do some bit of understanding of some of these concepts in international trade financing and sovereign guarantees (euphemism G2G - government to government for our Chinese loans).... we just escaped by a whisker with being slammed with a Shs. 30b demand on the Kinangop Wind project because the claimants couldn't sustain the argument that the "letter of comfort" by Treasury amounted to a guarantee by GoK. We were very very lucky on that. Turkana Wind is already cashing in on our GoK guarantee for their power even though it is not yet being delivered to the grid.

Where do 10m metric tonnes of cargo come from? Last I heard, we are struggling to hit our numbers... the reason why the government has been forcing importers to put their cargo on SGR even when it is uneconomical for some.

[Pragmatic]

Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html

[RV Pundit]

Don't see that as bad thing. It not that port is annexed - it just chinese taking over and running it for benefit of Sri Lanka economy. If Chinese want to come over and take over LAPSSET - let them do it. That too has doubtful viability. We call it private-public enterprises.  Don't buy the nonsense from western media - China has done so much for global economy the last 20 yrs that Western world could never do - preferring to blow money in space stations instead of investing globally like chinese do.

SGR to Nairobi is so viable - we are ahead of schedule - 7 cargo trains now - going into 12 trains - despite all the teething problems. We are doing extremely well. Last mile in Mombasa has been sorted..now cargo can be offloaded direct from the ship to train..and if you nominate ICD embakasi - you cargo will be Nairobi the same day. This is breathtaking stuff...if you know in places like Nigeria or TZ...this could take 3-4 weeks.

Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html

[Pragmatic]

Any wonder why we are struggling to pay our debt? - Treasury's debt rollover hits Sh202 billion in 5 months

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Treasury-s-debt-rollover-hits-Sh202-billion-in-5-months/996-4653454-gqbrcr/index.html

Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html

[RV Pundit]

You can take new loan or roll over debt (something our creditors seem more than happy to agree) - the same thing - as long as the debt financing doesn't exceed what is budgetted for - I don't see any crisis. The economy is kicking arse at projected 6.3% - and it could even be higher.

Any wonder why we are struggling to pay our debt? - Treasury's debt rollover hits Sh202 billion in 5 months

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Treasury-s-debt-rollover-hits-Sh202-billion-in-5-months/996-4653454-gqbrcr/index.html

[Pragmatic]

On LAPSSET we are totally in agreement, I have no problem with giving the Chinese a concession for say 35years and have them come with their money, build it, look for the traffic (business) and hand it over to us at the end of their concession. It is their risk, their money; if they make money out of it or not.... it is not tied to our treasury and it is not a Kenya debt.

Don't see that as bad thing. It not that port is annexed - it just chinese taking over and running it for benefit of Sri Lanka economy. If Chinese want to come over and take over LAPSSET - let them do it. That too has doubtful viability. We call it private-public enterprises.  Don't buy the nonsense from western media - China has done so much for global economy the last 20 yrs that Western world could never do - preferring to blow money in space stations instead of investing globally like chinese do.

SGR to Nairobi is so viable - we are ahead of schedule - 7 cargo trains now - going into 12 trains - despite all the teething problems. We are doing extremely well. Last mile in Mombasa has been sorted..now cargo can be offloaded direct from the ship to train..and if you nominate ICD embakasi - you cargo will be Nairobi the same day. This is breathtaking stuff...if you know in places like Nigeria or TZ...this could take 3-4 weeks.

Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html

[RV Pundit]

Treasury guarantee is only way to re-assure investors we are confident about our economy. We are growing our economy and taxes. I don't see how future generation will not be able to repay measily 10B dollars. This will be chicken in 10yrs now - when Kenya economy will be so huge. Right now IMF estimate our economy to be 88B dollars (despite strengethening of dollar the last few yrs) - we have budget of 30B - taxes 17-20B - so basically there is nothing to worry about - treasury should take more gurantees - as long as we fix our judiciary - that turkana wind power is burning money because compensation is stuck in court -  and ketraco cannot evacuate the power. If we don't sign gurantee then few investors will sink their money.

It a choice we don't have to make. If you're poor country or person, what risks do you really have? That you can borrow and become more poorer?, or richer. I think you got nothing to lose. We don't even have a shirt. Rich developed countries worry about losing stuff...we have no stuff to lose. If we lose LAMU port....to chinese..it something we didn't have.

On LAPSSET we are totally in agreement, I have no problem with giving the Chinese a concession for say 35years and have them come with their money, build it, look for the traffic (business) and hand it over to us at the end of their concession. It is their risk, their money; if they make money out of it or not.... it is not tied to our treasury and it is not a Kenya debt.

[Nefertiti]

I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.

[Globalcitizen12]

I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.

Ruto is pyschologically sick. Poverty real dehumanizes to a point where crazy greed take over. Ruto has full blown klepotomania. He needs a shrink and therapist. Biwott  suffered from the same, he feared he go back to the crushing poverty he saw in his village. Gichuru grew up in chrushing poverty. One of his school mate's in mchinda high school told me gichuru would walk home 3 hours on foot daily because he didn't have funds for boarding school. The headmaster made an exception for gichuru, he would ask teachers to let him out after 3 pm so that he could walk home and make it before it was too dark. This chrushing poverty made gichuru hoard money and become a very corrupt man. His first wife told the court how gichuru would leave his office and come home for lunch so anxious to listen to 1pm news bulletin in hope moi won't fire him. Anytime a reshuffle was near gichuru would be so anxious he would cry and tremble in the toilet for hours

I pity ruto. He is really restless. His soul is chrushed.

He is unhappy and doesn't want to die they way his dad did and leave his kids poor

Poverty is crime against humanity

[Globalcitizen12]

I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.

You are a beautiful soul. The truth must stand the test of time.

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit,
I think you have forgotten how tough life is for poor people. Corruption is not a game. It is a life and death matter for the nation and her citizens. When I left Kenya things were really bad. Everyone was staring at bleak future. I remember my experience getting a passport. Nyayo house was rotten. Somali refugees were clogging the hallways. The building was new but the toilets were hell..these morons had defeacated all over even the hallway to the toilet. I tried to go in and Somali teenager told me not to attempt as I would regret due to filth in those toilets..I think some guy chunga or some character was director of immigration.

I had a lot of hope for ruto in 2005 to 2008. However the more I talked to those that knew the guy the more scary the prospect of him being president became. Kibaki was a slothful fool. He placed ruto at the apex.

To me no way I would ever consider ruto. He is a flawed character. I would rather hold my nose and cast my vote for kalonzo

 

[Kichwa]

Most people have not realized how ruthless and selfish Ruto is by launching his campaign for 2022 so early in Ouru's 2nd term with total disregard to how that would affect Ouru's 2nd term. Not that I care about Ouru's 2nd term that much  but that is a window into Ruto's heart or the absence  of it that scares the bedevil out of MKM.  Ruto's raw ambition for power is only matched with his ambition to rapidly  amass massive wealth in 5 years which took the Kenyatta's and the Moi's almost 50's to steal. There is absolutely no evidence that Ruto is interested or has any skills or plans to develop, unify or expand the democratic space in Kenya other than to acquire more wealth and to elevate his Kalenjin tribe even higher.  He is an unforgiving dictator,  full of hate, and therefore those individuals or communities who have crossed his path in the past must stop him at all costs from ascending to that powerful position or he will wipe them out of the face of this country. If Ruto runs, it must be a life or death battle to safe Kenya.

Pundit,
I think you have forgotten how tough life is for poor people. Corruption is not a game. It is a life and death matter for the nation and her citizens. When I left Kenya things were really bad. Everyone was staring at bleak future. I remember my experience getting a passport. Nyayo house was rotten. Somali refugees were clogging the hallways. The building was new but the toilets were hell..these morons had defeacated all over even the hallway to the toilet. I tried to go in and Somali teenager told me not to attempt as I would regret due to filth in those toilets..I think some guy chunga or some character was director of immigration.

I had a lot of hope for ruto in 2005 to 2008. However the more I talked to those that knew the guy the more scary the prospect of him being president became. Kibaki was a slothful fool. He placed ruto at the apex.

To me no way I would ever consider ruto. He is a flawed character. I would rather hold my nose and cast my vote for kalonzo

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.

It's vile.  It's also silly to think someone that operates like that will somehow wake up and create a state in which people like him are found in jail and the Elon Musks and Bill Gates thrive.

[RV Pundit]

If Jubilee or Ruto has looted that much - to be described as the most corrupt - why is the economy growing at 6% plus - and why are we seeing "live live" transformation - with one of world fastest electrification, SGR - kenya largest public investment delivered on time, bla bla.I think Ruto "loots" coz he think he deserve a cut for his hardwork and in any case the money will be looted by someone else (most likely undeserving like Wanjigi).What is important is to realize all our politician are looters. They go in to loot. They go in to grow rich. And they soon realize to survive in politics they need tonnes of money. Therefore you've got to loot more.

Anyway for me I really don't care about the inputs, I care about the outputs. That is why I voted for Sonko. And I am seeing he is way better than Kidero. Ruto get stuff done. If he steals 10% of that, I don't care, I care about 90% he has delivered.

The biggest problem in Africa is NOT CORRUPTION. It is just that we produce so little. There are so many in-effective lazy politicians/carpenters or even bloggers - and having someone like Ruto is rarity - someone who actually wakes up 5am in the morning and get to gov job before dawn! Make sure he knows what goes on, the bottlenecks, ran gov, make things move etc. The average politician will wake up at 10 am and proceed to have breakfast and probably do 1 or 2 meetings a day - retire to drink or play golf.

If you produce little, and nothing get stolen out of it, you won't become rich. If you've hire people, you know you'd rather hire someone who steal a little but bring your more money, than bongolala who steals nothing and deliver nothing.

Foucs on OUTPUTS/OUTCOMES/DELIVERABLES. Not inputs. Who cares if sonko is a drug dealer if he can fix nairobi. I don't care if Ruto is "corrupt" as long as he is delivering the world fastest electrification, railways, roads and dams. Those are things I care about. Those are the tangible things.

If you steal and somehow deliver 10%growth rate YOY - then you are the hero. Ruto should focus on delivering tangible development and he can have the cream for himself - we will drink the milk. It all fair.

Augistino pinchoet looted but Chile thrived. Suharto of Indonesia looted so many billions but Indonsia is now well on it's way to developed nation.Ethiopia tigrays some claim have looted but Ethiopia has thrived.

You want a leader who is not only brilliant but also hardworking - and you've to one WSR.

I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.