Author Topic: A economic avalanche is coming  (Read 38310 times)

Offline Georgesoros

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 4191
  • Reputation: 7043
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #140 on: January 16, 2023, 09:54:14 PM »
Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.

Offline Nowayhaha

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 6733
  • Reputation: 5000
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #141 on: January 16, 2023, 10:49:43 PM »

I like the honesty of Njuguna , he needs to keep telling Ruto the truth , so that political hawks can be tamed otherwise the same people who associated with Hustler party will turn against Ruto the way they turned against Uhuru and  Jubilee .
Ruto needs to solve economy matters and Joblessness within 3 uears if he doesnt he will be in Moi shoes of 90s where a few Kales like Pundit will be celebrating and defending him.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #142 on: January 17, 2023, 04:32:06 AM »
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/taxman-misses-revenue-target-by-sh32-2bn-in-first-five-months--4083266 all the crazy tax collection projections wont be met. Meaning budget deficit will still be more than 8%.  Banks are raising interest rates so credit will be expensive. Government can digitize everything and still wont collect the projected taxes. The only solution has to be to reignite private sector growth driven by increase in production.
The hustler fund 50b. If instead of the fund the government lowered VAT to 14% which would cost roughly the same amount, it'd have increased demand then production. Or raising paye lowest brackets from 13k to 15k. This might have been more stimulative( humble opinion). 
Lower tax when we have 1.3 trillion kshs to be repaid...doesn't sound we will be doing it.We have to lower budget...Njunguna job is to cut 300b.Hustler fund should be better targeted at the poor. Also thankfully nobody lending to Kenya...so debt problem is getting resolved. Next year will be tough with Eurobond payments in 2024..so ideally recovery will happen in 2025...these two years are lost.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #143 on: January 17, 2023, 04:34:25 AM »

I like the honesty of Njuguna , he needs to keep telling Ruto the truth , so that political hawks can be tamed otherwise the same people who associated with Hustler party will turn against Ruto the way they turned against Uhuru and  Jubilee .
Ruto needs to solve economy matters and Joblessness within 3 uears if he doesnt he will be in Moi shoes of 90s where a few Kales like Pundit will be celebrating and defending him.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.
You should join oppposition early...Ruto is fixing kikuyu ihuru mess.Until then shut up.it will require two years to undo five years of mess by the drunkard

Offline hk

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 1384
  • Reputation: 16501
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #144 on: January 18, 2023, 10:14:29 AM »
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/taxman-misses-revenue-target-by-sh32-2bn-in-first-five-months--4083266 all the crazy tax collection projections wont be met. Meaning budget deficit will still be more than 8%.  Banks are raising interest rates so credit will be expensive. Government can digitize everything and still wont collect the projected taxes. The only solution has to be to reignite private sector growth driven by increase in production.
The hustler fund 50b. If instead of the fund the government lowered VAT to 14% which would cost roughly the same amount, it'd have increased demand then production. Or raising paye lowest brackets from 13k to 15k. This might have been more stimulative( humble opinion). 
Lower tax when we have 1.3 trillion kshs to be repaid...doesn't sound we will be doing it.We have to lower budget...Njunguna job is to cut 300b.Hustler fund should be better targeted at the poor. Also thankfully nobody lending to Kenya...so debt problem is getting resolved. Next year will be tough with Eurobond payments in 2024..so ideally recovery will happen in 2025...these two years are lost.
Njuguna 300b cuts are for 2023-24 and next year budget is being raised by same amount, so there's no budget cuts.  Meanwhile government is spending like we aren't in debt distress https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-bursts-recurrent-budget-forecast-by-sh81-7bn--4084638 . It's obvious that hustler fund is creating fiscal havoc with little economic benefit overall.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #145 on: January 18, 2023, 10:34:05 AM »
Revenues are set to grow to 2.6 - 3 trillion - so yes there is a budget cut. Also Njunguna to his credit has been rejecting expensive tbills/bonds. External borrowing outside IMF has dried up. Generally borrowing is fine. IMF/WB are happy with progress on fiscal consolidation. I think debt to gdp is down to 62.5%.

How can hustler fund create havoc. Sometimes research kidogo boss. Hustler fund has only spend I think 8B Kshs.....it mostly now rolling fund.

Njuguna 300b cuts are for 2023-24 and next year budget is being raised by same amount, so there's no budget cuts.  Meanwhile government is spending like we aren't in debt distress https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-bursts-recurrent-budget-forecast-by-sh81-7bn--4084638 . It's obvious that hustler fund is creating fiscal havoc with little economic benefit overall.

Offline Nowayhaha

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 6733
  • Reputation: 5000
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #146 on: January 18, 2023, 10:45:23 AM »


From 2018 when I realised Uhuru had messed up I joined Ruto in fighting him. If Ruto takes Uhuru route I will start fighting him too.
Meanwhile continue dickriding . Im not into that

I like the honesty of Njuguna , he needs to keep telling Ruto the truth , so that political hawks can be tamed otherwise the same people who associated with Hustler party will turn against Ruto the way they turned against Uhuru and  Jubilee .
Ruto needs to solve economy matters and Joblessness within 3 uears if he doesnt he will be in Moi shoes of 90s where a few Kales like Pundit will be celebrating and defending him.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.
You should join oppposition early...Ruto is fixing kikuyu ihuru mess.Until then shut up.it will require two years to undo five years of mess by the drunkard

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #147 on: January 18, 2023, 11:08:22 AM »
Surely you're too busy with Putin tiny winy - you cant handle bigger stuff. You're already in opposition because Ruto is going to be taking a dick (dig) at Uhuru and will let Raila the idiot walk free.

From 2018 when I realised Uhuru had messed up I joined Ruto in fighting him. If Ruto takes Uhuru route I will start fighting him too.
Meanwhile continue dickriding . Im not into that

Offline hk

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 1384
  • Reputation: 16501
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #148 on: January 18, 2023, 01:51:15 PM »
Revenues are set to grow to 2.6 - 3 trillion - so yes there is a budget cut. Also Njunguna to his credit has been rejecting expensive tbills/bonds. External borrowing outside IMF has dried up. Generally borrowing is fine. IMF/WB are happy with progress on fiscal consolidation. I think debt to gdp is down to 62.5%.

How can hustler fund create havoc. Sometimes research kidogo boss. Hustler fund has only spend I think 8B Kshs.....it mostly now rolling fund.

Njuguna 300b cuts are for 2023-24 and next year budget is being raised by same amount, so there's no budget cuts.  Meanwhile government is spending like we aren't in debt distress https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-bursts-recurrent-budget-forecast-by-sh81-7bn--4084638 . It's obvious that hustler fund is creating fiscal havoc with little economic benefit overall.

The 2.6t taxes collection are just projections. Already the KRA has missed its target for the quarter and there's no robust economic growth that would create taxes collection windfall. The proposed increase in excise duty taxes wont make up for the increase. There's a difference between allocation and disbursement in budgeting. 

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #149 on: January 18, 2023, 02:25:41 PM »
Revenue for six or five months are already 10 percent up..Ruto is cracking down on fake stamps and kra have to deliver more VAT or go.Borrowing budgeted at just 650b.

Offline hk

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 1384
  • Reputation: 16501
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #150 on: January 18, 2023, 03:50:50 PM »
Revenue for six or five months are already 10 percent up..Ruto is cracking down on fake stamps and kra have to deliver more VAT or go.Borrowing budgeted at just 650b.
Up 10% from last year collection but below the projections. Meaning to plug the deficit the government has to borrow more than the projected 650b.  At some point taxation becomes predatory and depresses consumption.  This is what about to happen to alcohol, cosmetics, water, soda and juices.

Offline KenyanPlato

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 6430
  • Reputation: 6183
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #151 on: January 18, 2023, 08:47:56 PM »
Revenue for six or five months are already 10 percent up..Ruto is cracking down on fake stamps and kra have to deliver more VAT or go.Borrowing budgeted at just 650b.
Up 10% from last year collection but below the projections. Meaning to plug the deficit the government has to borrow more than the projected 650b.  At some point taxation becomes predatory and depresses consumption.  This is what about to happen to alcohol, cosmetics, water, soda and juices.

uda regime is trying everything but austerity. A lot of innocent kenyans will continue to suffer due to this fiscal irresponsibility

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #152 on: January 19, 2023, 09:47:52 AM »
I think we are okay - in cleaning up uhuru mess until june.
The half year scores
Revenue are up although below project - by 30b.
Debt is down - as Ruto gov has rejected expensive debt - and kenya is locked out of external debt - we are doing 30% of borrowing - way below 50% of the target.
Only problem - unbudgeted expenditure is nearly 300B - this mostly uhuru inherited mess.
But Ruto has also promised to cut 300B expenditure this year - with suspension of most capital projects.

Ruto maiden budget starts here..
 
Up 10% from last year collection but below the projections. Meaning to plug the deficit the government has to borrow more than the projected 650b.  At some point taxation becomes predatory and depresses consumption.  This is what about to happen to alcohol, cosmetics, water, soda and juices.

Offline gout

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3754
  • Reputation: 1374
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #153 on: January 24, 2023, 08:31:17 AM »
Clearly there was no maize in Rift Valley. Those politicians are sick having stopped Kuria to import maize. The duty free ships with maize and rice should start docking asap otherwise this is reckless of Hasla. The piss falls on his feet.
I underestimated the heartbreaks visited by hasla revolution

Offline Georgesoros

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 4191
  • Reputation: 7043
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #154 on: January 28, 2023, 07:25:28 PM »
Clearly there was no maize in Rift Valley. Those politicians are sick having stopped Kuria to import maize. The duty free ships with maize and rice should start docking asap otherwise this is reckless of Hasla. The piss falls on his feet.

How do you expect crop when land has been divided into tiny pieces. One acre is useless.

Offline gout

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3754
  • Reputation: 1374
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #155 on: January 29, 2023, 12:07:40 PM »
This is pure colonial nonsense. Mt Kenya households have been subsisting on maize/beans with less than an acre and still producing world class quality coffee, tea, milk and high value vegetables. Mwea farmers have 1-2 acres and still doing well.

Clearly there was no maize in Rift Valley. Those politicians are sick having stopped Kuria to import maize. The duty free ships with maize and rice should start docking asap otherwise this is reckless of Hasla. The piss falls on his feet.

How do you expect crop when land has been divided into tiny pieces. One acre is useless.
I underestimated the heartbreaks visited by hasla revolution

Offline gout

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3754
  • Reputation: 1374
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #156 on: February 10, 2023, 11:33:37 AM »
SK's PTSD senility is sinking RMS.


https://www.gobeba.com/product/rubis-kenol-kobil-k-gas-6kg-refill/

Baringo are yet to be allowed to harvest mathenge as charcoal while we pretend to save them.
I underestimated the heartbreaks visited by hasla revolution

Offline gout

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3754
  • Reputation: 1374
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #157 on: February 13, 2023, 03:22:57 PM »
Hasla should have backed Kuria's plan to import maize way back.

Now there is no white maize in the market.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/millers-demand-yellow-maize-as-shortage-bites-4120580
I underestimated the heartbreaks visited by hasla revolution

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 36995
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #158 on: February 13, 2023, 03:31:30 PM »
Linturi is sickeningly incompetent

Offline gout

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3754
  • Reputation: 1374
Re: A economic avalanche is coming
« Reply #159 on: February 16, 2023, 09:37:17 PM »
I underestimated the heartbreaks visited by hasla revolution