Kadame
The history of people trying to prevent rigging by flooding polling stations and using the media failed. Kenneth Matiba had a high tech video camera in each polling station in Kenya. He lost. Kibaki had videos in his native Nyeri during KANU elections, a DC announced fake results. The GSU surrounded the location and Kibaki asked to ask his supporters to go home quietly or they'' taste teargas.
But in reality they didn't need all that force. The law allowed the DC in his role as the Returning Officer wide powers. He collected all the votes from polling stations and brought them to his HQs where his own people counted and recounted until the right candidate won.
The first move was to prescribe polling station voting. This saw KANU pack and go ndaani into oblivion.
Then Kibaki made nonsense of the reforms of the IPPG 97 . He unilaterally appointed commissioners, stuffed the high court and appointed APs as his election agents. Rigging seminars were conducted and drills on how to kill Luos held. We know the outcome and the reforms suggested out of that.
However in 2012, Raila went to bed and Hassan started changing the law using "regulations". I think Raila thought the moves would help him and he did not oppose.
It is these unconstitutional regulations that the IEBC wants to use.
The reason they are jittery is simple: Once the results are announced and the certificate issued, they cannot alter the results and give Uhuru the few more votes he needs in this or that county to jump over the 25% of the votes in 24 counties rule.
About jail term to ROs it won't happen any time soon. So many of them altered results. Boni Khalwale has documented the discrepancies between the results announced at the various polling centres and Constituencies and what was transmitted. In all the cases the RO sat and waited for a call from the NIS which provided the figures to transmit. The crowds had already gone home and the new figures contradicted what they had read. New forms were them produced and when CORD protested, Hasan ordered them all out and he announced Uhuru the winner. Most of those ROs are on the new list to preside over the 2017 elections and not surprisingly, Jubilee says they should!
The IEBC needs time and the opportunity.
They create both by labeling ROs results provisional. They deny the media and other the right to know the real results because everything out there is "provisional". They then slowly work up the numbers and announce the results at Bomas. Finally giving Uhuru the win.
You can imagine if the results are already well known. Media houses competing to share the outcomes and working their own totals. Whoever gets a commanding lead cannot suddenly get a boost from Tharaka-Nithi or Tiaty!
Openness is what Jubilee hates. It denies them the giza in which to rig elections.
We know they can stuff votes in Central and parts of RV. But they run in to the upper limit. NASA strongholds have more voters. They would need their computer hackers to "transfer" the voters if they have to avoid 120% of Kieni. Even then they would need to create new polling stations since the maximum number of the 700 voters per polling station would have been known. It is a nightmare for Jubilee!
But the announced constituency results are announced publicly, including to the media immediately. So how does the R.O change results in the certificate? And dont all parties get some kind of copy? If he does that, it will be very easy to catch him and nullify that result...in court. Its not like the officially signed off result is held somewhere in secret. Chebukait gets to anounce the result, not alter them. He cannot announce a different result than that calculated by me at home using my phone in adding all the announced results. The R.O. who changes that midway to Nairobi is simply looking to end up in jail for election fraud; he will not be able to change results he announced at the constituency, which the court has ruled is final per the constitution. So if the concern is the point between the cinstituency and Chebukait, that does not seem all that difficult to resolve. If it is at the constituency, still waiting for the special Bomas magic that will resolve what IEBC people and party agents at that level cannot. It simply isnt there.