Author Topic: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified  (Read 17362 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #60 on: May 25, 2017, 09:20:26 AM »
According to iebc the supreme court already ruled on this as part of cord petition of 2013.If chebukati is the presidential RO then he has the right to verify.All ROS are iebc staff.Final declaration at const just moves the manipulation down there...which harder to track than one main tallying center.Infact iebc main tallying center has been good sanity check and not rigging platform.Tallying center is watched by many.kibaki delayed results by making ROs disappear or turning their phones off only to appear with massaged numbers. NASA are thinking if those figures had been announced at every const tally center - there would be no way to manipulate. But how do ROs transmit the figures to Chebukati - as of now they still have to travel to Nairobi and personally deliver the certified copies of results- along the way they can manipulate the results - and Chebukati is suppose to just accept them?

The solution to reduce rigging is for all parties to really invest in shinning the light to all polling and tallying centers - agents & technology - parrallel tallying centers - media tallying centers - provisional electronic transmission - as long as Chebukait get to announce the FINAL results.

I believe most rigging will happen in either candidate strongholds were hostile agents will be intimidated or bought or they would betray their party - for tribal loyalty. That is where we need to focus on - Luo Nyanza, Central, Eastern and Rift Valley - where turn out can be as high as 95% (homa-bay).

Offline Kadame5

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #61 on: May 25, 2017, 02:45:23 PM »
But what magic allows the Bomas guy to catch "mathematical errors" that all the party agents and IEBC folk at the constituency level have missed? Only a rigger insists on their having the ability to change at a far-removed center, tallied, verified and announced results of locally held elections.

Like Windy says, I cannot think of a single innocent reason why someone in Nairobi will want to or be best placed to change results from Turkana. And Pundit's arguments in this thread have not given even one good reason. IEBC chair feeling like he has a big important job and is not just a conveyor belt is not a serious concern. The IEBC conducts elections, everything that's been going on till now, including hiring abd training staff, preping ballots, logistics etc. That is important enough. IEBC's job is not to mess around with the voters' job by playing with results. What is in Nairobi that is not in Turkana to ensure sound mathematics?

And why is IEBC invested at all? What do they care whether the consitutency results are held to be final? They are supposed to be an uninterested party, are they not? At least it is so claimed. They just want to conduct elections: so what is their problem with the constitutional court's judgment? These IEBC shenanigans have convinced me even more than I was that IEBC cooked 2013 results at Bomas. No wonder it took 7 days. An innocent uninterested party like IEBC would have no problem with what the Court has said. They would just carry on as planned since they were not planning to change the election results anyway so it would not make a difference for them either way. Nothing will have changed for them. But for this crew, it seems Constituency R.O results being beyond altering changes everything. Gee, I wonder why......

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #62 on: May 25, 2017, 04:19:30 PM »
But what magic allows the Bomas guy to catch "mathematical errors" that all the party agents and IEBC folk at the constituency level have missed? Only a rigger insists on their having the ability to change at a far-removed center, tallied, verified and announced results of locally held elections.

Like Windy says, I cannot think of a single innocent reason why someone in Nairobi will want to or be best placed to change results from Turkana. And Pundit's arguments in this thread have not given even one good reason. IEBC chair feeling like he has a big important job and is not just a conveyor belt is not a serious concern. The IEBC conducts elections, everything that's been going on till now, including hiring abd training staff, preping ballots, logistics etc. That is important enough. IEBC's job is not to mess around with the voters' job by playing with results. What is in Nairobi that is not in Turkana to ensure sound mathematics?

And why is IEBC invested at all? What do they care whether the consitutency results are held to be final? They are supposed to be an uninterested party, are they not? At least it is so claimed. They just want to conduct elections: so what is their problem with the constitutional court's judgment? These IEBC shenanigans have convinced me even more than I was that IEBC cooked 2013 results at Bomas. No wonder it took 7 days. An innocent uninterested party like IEBC would have no problem with what the Court has said. They would just carry on as planned since they were not planning to change the election results anyway so it would not make a difference for them either way. Nothing will have changed for them. But for this crew, it seems Constituency R.O results being beyond altering changes everything. Gee, I wonder why......

Pundit's arrgument in summary is just one of discomfort.  He is not comfortable with the ROs output, but he is comfortable with that of a man who has to - according to him - do more work of the same nature with more data, with more room for error, and no real access to the context, in a closed off office and come up with a number only he knows how he got.

When dealing with spoiled votes, RO's at polling stations do not attempt to read the mind of the voter and fix his/her vote.  They reject them because they can't know what the voter wanted.  I don't see it any different with Chebukati and Constituency ROs who return what in his judgement are obviously invalid results.  He obviously has more work than announcing this result, otherwise he should be fired and his position advertized as a contract for only the election period.

If all parties have signed off on it, we just have to accept the result as is until otherwise resolved by a court.  If it's egregious and obvious, then a court challenge should be made all the more easier.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline Kichwa

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #63 on: May 25, 2017, 04:35:22 PM »
Pundit does not make sense anymore.



But what magic allows the Bomas guy to catch "mathematical errors" that all the party agents and IEBC folk at the constituency level have missed? Only a rigger insists on their having the ability to change at a far-removed center, tallied, verified and announced results of locally held elections.

Like Windy says, I cannot think of a single innocent reason why someone in Nairobi will want to or be best placed to change results from Turkana. And Pundit's arguments in this thread have not given even one good reason. IEBC chair feeling like he has a big important job and is not just a conveyor belt is not a serious concern. The IEBC conducts elections, everything that's been going on till now, including hiring abd training staff, preping ballots, logistics etc. That is important enough. IEBC's job is not to mess around with the voters' job by playing with results. What is in Nairobi that is not in Turkana to ensure sound mathematics?

And why is IEBC invested at all? What do they care whether the consitutency results are held to be final? They are supposed to be an uninterested party, are they not? At least it is so claimed. They just want to conduct elections: so what is their problem with the constitutional court's judgment? These IEBC shenanigans have convinced me even more than I was that IEBC cooked 2013 results at Bomas. No wonder it took 7 days. An innocent uninterested party like IEBC would have no problem with what the Court has said. They would just carry on as planned since they were not planning to change the election results anyway so it would not make a difference for them either way. Nothing will have changed for them. But for this crew, it seems Constituency R.O results being beyond altering changes everything. Gee, I wonder why......

Pundit's arrgument in summary is just one of discomfort.  He is not comfortable with the ROs output, but he is comfortable with that of a man who has to - according to him - do more work of the same nature with more data, with more room for error, and no real access to the context, in a closed off office and come up with a number only he knows how he got.

When dealing with spoiled votes, RO's at polling stations do not attempt to read the mind of the voter and fix his/her vote.  They reject them because they can't know what the voter wanted.  I don't see it any different with Chebukati and Constituency ROs who return what in his judgement are obviously invalid results.  He obviously has more work than announcing this result, otherwise he should be fired and his position advertized as a contract for only the election period.

If all parties have signed off on it, we just have to accept the result as is until otherwise resolved by a court.  If it's egregious and obvious, then a court challenge should be made all the more easier.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #64 on: May 25, 2017, 04:36:41 PM »
Pundit

There are a number of things that I treat as Knowledge Gaps in my existence. Some are compley ideas while others are simple day to day things. It could be an abbreviation or a set of numbers. I make a vow to check out the meaning when I see it but promptly forget as soon as its passed. I have to admit some are a result of a deliberate attempt on my mind's side to suppress and conceal. Perhaps I hate the truth that might emerge.

Yours is the 2013 Elections. I pray a day will come when you will either embrace the truth you know but choose to push the lie or you will actually seek to know what you don't know.

Every day you speak, I marvel at the ignorance coming from a mind I once thought unbiased and brilliant.

Are you saying Isaac Hassan did not kick out CORD agents before signing off on key documents and granting Uhuru a win?
Are you saying that Gen. Karangi did not threaten CORD and journalists at Bomas
Are you saying that fake results were not announced at Bomas sometimes to the amusement of journalists?

Bomas was a rigging centre. To be precise, the actual rigging started much earlier when Jubilee started sharing servers with IEBC and gained access to the database. a good % of the voters were then transferred to Jubilee zones to help mask the otherwise 120% voting.

Kenyatta University was used to produce the actual ballots to be stuffed in to the boxes in case of recounts.

Thousands of CORD voters were not able to vote being turned away as having already voted. Yet they had not voted. The reason was that Jubilee hackers had already voted for them.

I could go on and on. But what I can tell you is we used a lot of energy on finding out these details. It will not happen again. How we shall guarantee that is something Ill share openly in 2018 when NASA is in power.

Of course if you win fairly I have no problem whatever. But we lost too many people in the 80 through the 90s to Moi to allow the same back and take it lying down. The brief period of naivete is gone.

I already know you dismissal of this so you may as well save it.


According to iebc the supreme court already ruled on this as part of cord petition of 2013.If chebukati is the presidential RO then he has the right to verify.All ROS are iebc staff.Final declaration at const just moves the manipulation down there...which harder to track than one main tallying center.Infact iebc main tallying center has been good sanity check and not rigging platform.Tallying center is watched by many.kibaki delayed results by making ROs disappear or turning their phones off only to appear with massaged numbers. NASA are thinking if those figures had been announced at every const tally center - there would be no way to manipulate. But how do ROs transmit the figures to Chebukati - as of now they still have to travel to Nairobi and personally deliver the certified copies of results- along the way they can manipulate the results - and Chebukati is suppose to just accept them?

The solution to reduce rigging is for all parties to really invest in shinning the light to all polling and tallying centers - agents & technology - parrallel tallying centers - media tallying centers - provisional electronic transmission - as long as Chebukait get to announce the FINAL results.

I believe most rigging will happen in either candidate strongholds were hostile agents will be intimidated or bought or they would betray their party - for tribal loyalty. That is where we need to focus on - Luo Nyanza, Central, Eastern and Rift Valley - where turn out can be as high as 95% (homa-bay).
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #65 on: May 25, 2017, 04:46:42 PM »
Kababe

It is how it usually happens that makes the High Court Ruling unpleasant.

They announce the results honestly at every polling station. That is because they are afraid of cameras and the public.

Then people go home and they start to receive calls from the NIS instructing them on what numbers to transmit.

That is why the results must remain "provisional" to allow the IEBC to top up here and there and where they have given more than the voters, adjust by increasing the number of voters (that is why Hassan had to have multiple voter registers).

They lost multiple voter registers meaning we would all know how many people are legible to vote in any given polling station. The law provides for a maximum of 700 voters (was 500 but during the manual voting amendment by Jubilee the upped it to 700 to give themselves a shot at rigging)

The reason behind small numbers is so that the counting is done quickly and results announced and transmitted.

Note that in the past one polling station could have as many as 50K people or more. Such polling stations are created for rigging. Others were created which did not exist. This time we need to see all and NASA will deploy staff to each and every one. Jubilee knows this. So they want to give themselves a chance to change results they know they couldn't attempt to change at the local level lest they are lynched.

But what magic allows the Bomas guy to catch "mathematical errors" that all the party agents and IEBC folk at the constituency level have missed? Only a rigger insists on their having the ability to change at a far-removed center, tallied, verified and announced results of locally held elections.

Like Windy says, I cannot think of a single innocent reason why someone in Nairobi will want to or be best placed to change results from Turkana. And Pundit's arguments in this thread have not given even one good reason. IEBC chair feeling like he has a big important job and is not just a conveyor belt is not a serious concern. The IEBC conducts elections, everything that's been going on till now, including hiring abd training staff, preping ballots, logistics etc. That is important enough. IEBC's job is not to mess around with the voters' job by playing with results. What is in Nairobi that is not in Turkana to ensure sound mathematics?

And why is IEBC invested at all? What do they care whether the consitutency results are held to be final? They are supposed to be an uninterested party, are they not? At least it is so claimed. They just want to conduct elections: so what is their problem with the constitutional court's judgment? These IEBC shenanigans have convinced me even more than I was that IEBC cooked 2013 results at Bomas. No wonder it took 7 days. An innocent uninterested party like IEBC would have no problem with what the Court has said. They would just carry on as planned since they were not planning to change the election results anyway so it would not make a difference for them either way. Nothing will have changed for them. But for this crew, it seems Constituency R.O results being beyond altering changes everything. Gee, I wonder why......
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #66 on: May 25, 2017, 04:47:29 PM »
Remind me how the Supreme Court ruled.

According to iebc the supreme court already ruled on this as part of cord petition of 2013.If chebukati is the presidential RO then he has the right to verify.All ROS are iebc staff.Final declaration at const just moves the manipulation down there...which harder to track than one main tallying center.Infact iebc main tallying center has been good sanity check and not rigging platform.Tallying center is watched by many.kibaki delayed results by making ROs disappear or turning their phones off only to appear with massaged numbers. NASA are thinking if those figures had been announced at every const tally center - there would be no way to manipulate. But how do ROs transmit the figures to Chebukati - as of now they still have to travel to Nairobi and personally deliver the certified copies of results- along the way they can manipulate the results - and Chebukati is suppose to just accept them?

The solution to reduce rigging is for all parties to really invest in shinning the light to all polling and tallying centers - agents & technology - parrallel tallying centers - media tallying centers - provisional electronic transmission - as long as Chebukait get to announce the FINAL results.

I believe most rigging will happen in either candidate strongholds were hostile agents will be intimidated or bought or they would betray their party - for tribal loyalty. That is where we need to focus on - Luo Nyanza, Central, Eastern and Rift Valley - where turn out can be as high as 95% (homa-bay).
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Kadame5

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #67 on: May 25, 2017, 04:56:04 PM »
According to iebc the supreme court already ruled on this as part of cord petition of 2013.If chebukati is the presidential RO then he has the right to verify.All ROS are iebc staff.Final declaration at const just moves the manipulation down there...which harder to track than one main tallying center.Infact iebc main tallying center has been good sanity check and not rigging platform.Tallying center is watched by many.kibaki delayed results by making ROs disappear or turning their phones off only to appear with massaged numbers. NASA are thinking if those figures had been announced at every const tally center - there would be no way to manipulate. But how do ROs transmit the figures to Chebukati - as of now they still have to travel to Nairobi and personally deliver the certified copies of results- along the way they can manipulate the results - and Chebukati is suppose to just accept them?

The solution to reduce rigging is for all parties to really invest in shinning the light to all polling and tallying centers - agents & technology - parrallel tallying centers - media tallying centers - provisional electronic transmission - as long as Chebukait get to announce the FINAL results.

I believe most rigging will happen in either candidate strongholds were hostile agents will be intimidated or bought or they would betray their party - for tribal loyalty. That is where we need to focus on - Luo Nyanza, Central, Eastern and Rift Valley - where turn out can be as high as 95% (homa-bay).
But the announced constituency results are announced publicly, including to the media immediately. So how does the R.O change results in the certificate? And dont all parties get some kind of copy? If he does that, it will be very easy to catch him and nullify that result...in court. Its not like the officially signed off result is held somewhere in secret. Chebukait gets to anounce the result, not alter them. He cannot announce a different result than that calculated by me at home using my phone in adding all the announced results. The R.O. who changes that midway to Nairobi is simply looking to end up in jail for election fraud; he will not be able to change results he announced at the constituency, which the court has ruled is final per the constitution. So if the concern is the point between the cinstituency and Chebukait, that does not seem all that difficult to resolve. If it is at the constituency, still waiting for the special Bomas magic that will resolve what IEBC people and party agents at that level cannot. It simply isnt there.

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #68 on: May 25, 2017, 05:30:04 PM »
Kadame

The history of people trying to prevent rigging by flooding polling stations and using the media failed. Kenneth Matiba had a high tech video camera in each polling station in Kenya. He lost. Kibaki had videos in his native Nyeri during KANU elections, a DC announced fake results. The GSU surrounded the location and Kibaki asked to ask his supporters to go home quietly or they'' taste teargas.

But in reality they didn't need all that force. The law allowed the DC in his role as the Returning Officer wide powers. He collected all the votes from polling stations and brought them to his HQs where his own people counted and recounted until the right candidate won.

The first move was to prescribe polling station voting. This saw KANU pack and go ndaani into oblivion.

Then Kibaki made nonsense of the reforms of the IPPG 97 . He unilaterally appointed commissioners, stuffed the high court and appointed APs as his election agents. Rigging seminars were conducted and drills on how to kill Luos held. We know the outcome and the reforms suggested out of that.

However in 2012, Raila went to bed and Hassan started changing the law using "regulations". I think Raila thought the moves would help him and he did not oppose.

It is these unconstitutional regulations that the IEBC wants to use.

The reason they are jittery is simple: Once the results are announced and the certificate issued, they cannot alter the results and give Uhuru the few more votes he needs in this or that county to jump over the 25% of the votes in 24 counties rule.

About jail term to ROs it won't happen any time soon. So many of them altered results. Boni Khalwale has documented the discrepancies between the results announced at the various polling centres and Constituencies and what was transmitted. In all the cases the RO sat and waited for a call from the NIS which provided the figures to transmit. The crowds had already gone home and the new figures contradicted what they had read. New forms were them produced and when CORD protested, Hasan ordered them all out and he announced Uhuru the winner. Most of those ROs are on the new list to preside over the 2017 elections and not surprisingly, Jubilee says they should!

The IEBC needs time and the opportunity.

They create both by labeling ROs results provisional. They deny the media and other the right to know the real results because everything out there is "provisional". They then slowly work up the numbers and announce the results at Bomas. Finally giving Uhuru the win.

You can imagine if the results are already well known. Media houses competing to share the outcomes and working their own totals. Whoever gets a commanding lead cannot suddenly get a boost from Tharaka-Nithi or Tiaty!

Openness is what Jubilee hates. It denies them the giza in which to rig elections.

We know they can stuff votes in Central and parts of RV. But they run in to the upper limit. NASA strongholds have more voters. They would need their computer hackers to "transfer" the voters if they have to avoid 120% of Kieni. Even then they would need to create new polling stations since the maximum number of the 700 voters per polling station would have been known. It is a nightmare for Jubilee!

But the announced constituency results are announced publicly, including to the media immediately. So how does the R.O change results in the certificate? And dont all parties get some kind of copy? If he does that, it will be very easy to catch him and nullify that result...in court. Its not like the officially signed off result is held somewhere in secret. Chebukait gets to anounce the result, not alter them. He cannot announce a different result than that calculated by me at home using my phone in adding all the announced results. The R.O. who changes that midway to Nairobi is simply looking to end up in jail for election fraud; he will not be able to change results he announced at the constituency, which the court has ruled is final per the constitution. So if the concern is the point between the cinstituency and Chebukait, that does not seem all that difficult to resolve. If it is at the constituency, still waiting for the special Bomas magic that will resolve what IEBC people and party agents at that level cannot. It simply isnt there.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #69 on: May 25, 2017, 05:34:53 PM »
Welcome back Kadame. Good to see you again here. I think we all want the same thing - we want free and fair elections. I don't personally have problem with next level of ROs verifying the work of lower ROs. I don't expect the Const RO to just assume the POs result announced publicly in the polling station are final. We know from petitions filed that mistakes have been made - mathematical, transposition and etc. The reality is in polling station people mostly care about MCAs. At the const level - they care about MP. They Const  ROs is in charge of six elections....they go on for 48hours..fatigue set in...and of course foul play...and you have people adding their own numbers.

If Chebukati is the RO for presidential election he should do his job as per constitution.
1) He should get all certified copies of every polling station presidential elections. Not just summaries at Const level.
2) He should then add up all polling station results - after verifing. Chebukait does by hiring staff to sanity check all polling station results, then entering them and adding them up again. Where there is a difference - then Const ROs and agents have to figure that out.
4) After that Chebukati as Presidential RO announce the winner - keep all certified copies - as received and as retallyed - for supreme court petitions. If there is any dispute - ballot boxes are securely kept in Const RO.

I don't see how that allow rigging in national tallying center - I see it as mandatory job for presidential RO.

Const RO is not the presidential RO.He RO for MCAS & MP - he tallies up and announces the winner - and is conveyor belt for Governor,Senator, Women Rep & Presidential. If there is rigging -then it can happen at every stage of the process - and all it takes is for IEBC staff, agents & media not doing their job.

CORD lost in 2013 in fair and free election - they had petition - which supreme court allowed - had the some ballots papers and paper trailed investigated - they came with nothing. They lost 7- or 9-NIL at supreme court.

The message I am getting here is rig at polling station - and that is final. IEBC then just become conveyor belt of really ridiculous results that end up with Chebukati announcing 20M kenyans voted out of 19m registered votes.

But the announced constituency results are announced publicly, including to the media immediately. So how does the R.O change results in the certificate? And dont all parties get some kind of copy? If he does that, it will be very easy to catch him and nullify that result...in court. Its not like the officially signed off result is held somewhere in secret. Chebukait gets to anounce the result, not alter them. He cannot announce a different result than that calculated by me at home using my phone in adding all the announced results. The R.O. who changes that midway to Nairobi is simply looking to end up in jail for election fraud; he will not be able to change results he announced at the constituency, which the court has ruled is final per the constitution. So if the concern is the point between the cinstituency and Chebukait, that does not seem all that difficult to resolve. If it is at the constituency, still waiting for the special Bomas magic that will resolve what IEBC people and party agents at that level cannot. It simply isnt there.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #70 on: May 25, 2017, 05:49:41 PM »
Spreading rumours and lies as always. Supreme court sat, heard all that nonsense and said there was nothing like that. IEBC led by Hassan conducted free and fair elections. Supreme court did a sample of re-tallying and IEBC had all the bases covered.
Kadame

The history of people trying to prevent rigging by flooding polling stations and using the media failed. Kenneth Matiba had a high tech video camera in each polling station in Kenya. He lost. Kibaki had videos in his native Nyeri during KANU elections, a DC announced fake results. The GSU surrounded the location and Kibaki asked to ask his supporters to go home quietly or they'' taste teargas.

But in reality they didn't need all that force. The law allowed the DC in his role as the Returning Officer wide powers. He collected all the votes from polling stations and brought them to his HQs where his own people counted and recounted until the right candidate won.

The first move was to prescribe polling station voting. This saw KANU pack and go ndaani into oblivion.

Then Kibaki made nonsense of the reforms of the IPPG 97 . He unilaterally appointed commissioners, stuffed the high court and appointed APs as his election agents. Rigging seminars were conducted and drills on how to kill Luos held. We know the outcome and the reforms suggested out of that.

However in 2012, Raila went to bed and Hassan started changing the law using "regulations". I think Raila thought the moves would help him and he did not oppose.

It is these unconstitutional regulations that the IEBC wants to use.

The reason they are jittery is simple: Once the results are announced and the certificate issued, they cannot alter the results and give Uhuru the few more votes he needs in this or that county to jump over the 25% of the votes in 24 counties rule.

About jail term to ROs it won't happen any time soon. So many of them altered results. Boni Khalwale has documented the discrepancies between the results announced at the various polling centres and Constituencies and what was transmitted. In all the cases the RO sat and waited for a call from the NIS which provided the figures to transmit. The crowds had already gone home and the new figures contradicted what they had read. New forms were them produced and when CORD protested, Hasan ordered them all out and he announced Uhuru the winner. Most of those ROs are on the new list to preside over the 2017 elections and not surprisingly, Jubilee says they should!

The IEBC needs time and the opportunity.

They create both by labeling ROs results provisional. They deny the media and other the right to know the real results because everything out there is "provisional". They then slowly work up the numbers and announce the results at Bomas. Finally giving Uhuru the win.

You can imagine if the results are already well known. Media houses competing to share the outcomes and working their own totals. Whoever gets a commanding lead cannot suddenly get a boost from Tharaka-Nithi or Tiaty!

Openness is what Jubilee hates. It denies them the giza in which to rig elections.

We know they can stuff votes in Central and parts of RV. But they run in to the upper limit. NASA strongholds have more voters. They would need their computer hackers to "transfer" the voters if they have to avoid 120% of Kieni. Even then they would need to create new polling stations since the maximum number of the 700 voters per polling station would have been known. It is a nightmare for Jubilee!

But the announced constituency results are announced publicly, including to the media immediately. So how does the R.O change results in the certificate? And dont all parties get some kind of copy? If he does that, it will be very easy to catch him and nullify that result...in court. Its not like the officially signed off result is held somewhere in secret. Chebukait gets to anounce the result, not alter them. He cannot announce a different result than that calculated by me at home using my phone in adding all the announced results. The R.O. who changes that midway to Nairobi is simply looking to end up in jail for election fraud; he will not be able to change results he announced at the constituency, which the court has ruled is final per the constitution. So if the concern is the point between the cinstituency and Chebukait, that does not seem all that difficult to resolve. If it is at the constituency, still waiting for the special Bomas magic that will resolve what IEBC people and party agents at that level cannot. It simply isnt there.


Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #71 on: May 25, 2017, 06:16:09 PM »
Like I said, one day you will be lucky to delve in to the 2013 elections and will be pleasantly surprised when lots of your ignorance is reduced.

You have to be ashamed of yourself citing a court dismissal as proof of no rigging. Let me give you examples of court petitions dismissed by the courts:

1. 1993 - High Court files Petition against Moi. Court dismisses the petition because Matiba did not sign the petition (on grounds of having had a stroke when Moiu detained him) and the court goes ahead to certify that Moi was validly elected! Note that there were so many acrobatics that the petition ended up being heard and determined by the Court of Appeal. All the judges involved would later lose their jobs and reputations on account of that petition.

2. Kibaki filed his following the 1997 election. It would not be heard and determined until briefly in 1999 when the court ruled on preliminary objections. It was thrown out on the grounds that Kibaki failed to penetrate the murderous Moi security to personally serve Moi - a provision turned in to law by the 1993 Matiba Petition!
 
The Supreme Court did not hear ALL the evidence. Once it ruled out the key evidence, I think CORD should have withdrawn from the case.

The whole idea behind judicial reforms was to end the use of technicalities to determine cases. Yet when it came to a matter crucial to the country, the SC chose a technicality. I would listen to you if the court had delved in to the evidence, then found nothing worth considering.

But then again, you are a Jubilee propagandist and any advantage must be celebrated. You are part of the retinue of a man you celebrate as "ruthless".

Hassan did not conduct free and fair elections. He was also found culpable in corruption. He was found to have received bribes by a British court.

There is no recount that could succeed. Like I have explained the centre at Kenyatta University produced marked ballot papers to top up areas where there had been virtual voting. Where ROs had manufactured results, the NIS ensured that marked ballot papers were added to make sure there is no failure in recounts.

Note am not convincing you. I already suspect you know all this. I am telling you so you and others know we know your game in 2013 and the plans for 2017.
$
Spreading rumours and lies as always. Supreme court sat, heard all that nonsense and said there was nothing like that. IEBC led by Hassan conducted free and fair elections. Supreme court did a sample of re-tallying and IEBC had all the bases covered.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #72 on: May 25, 2017, 06:21:46 PM »
Here is pundit saying the Presidential election at Constituency level conducts itself.

Pundit, what does "verifying" entail? Where is it specified that the RO is only there for MCA and MP? and not President?
 
Welcome back Kadame. Good to see you again here. I think we all want the same thing - we want free and fair elections. I don't personally have problem with next level of ROs verifying the work of lower ROs. I don't expect the Const RO to just assume the POs result announced publicly in the polling station are final. We know from petitions filed that mistakes have been made - mathematical, transposition and etc. The reality is in polling station people mostly care about MCAs. At the const level - they care about MP. They Const  ROs is in charge of six elections....they go on for 48hours..fatigue set in...and of course foul play...and you have people adding their own numbers.

If Chebukati is the RO for presidential election he should do his job as per constitution.
1) He should get all certified copies of every polling station presidential elections. Not just summaries at Const level.
2) He should then add up all polling station results - after verifing. Chebukait does by hiring staff to sanity check all polling station results, then entering them and adding them up again. Where there is a difference - then Const ROs and agents have to figure that out.
4) After that Chebukati as Presidential RO announce the winner - keep all certified copies - as received and as retallyed - for supreme court petitions. If there is any dispute - ballot boxes are securely kept in Const RO.

I don't see how that allow rigging in national tallying center - I see it as mandatory job for presidential RO.

Const RO is not the presidential RO.He RO for MCAS & MP - he tallies up and announces the winner - and is conveyor belt for Governor,Senator, Women Rep & Presidential. If there is rigging -then it can happen at every stage of the process - and all it takes is for IEBC staff, agents & media not doing their job.

CORD lost in 2013 in fair and free election - they had petition - which supreme court allowed - had the some ballots papers and paper trailed investigated - they came with nothing. They lost 7- or 9-NIL at supreme court.

The message I am getting here is rig at polling station - and that is final. IEBC then just become conveyor belt of really ridiculous results that end up with Chebukati announcing 20M kenyans voted out of 19m registered votes.

But the announced constituency results are announced publicly, including to the media immediately. So how does the R.O change results in the certificate? And dont all parties get some kind of copy? If he does that, it will be very easy to catch him and nullify that result...in court. Its not like the officially signed off result is held somewhere in secret. Chebukait gets to anounce the result, not alter them. He cannot announce a different result than that calculated by me at home using my phone in adding all the announced results. The R.O. who changes that midway to Nairobi is simply looking to end up in jail for election fraud; he will not be able to change results he announced at the constituency, which the court has ruled is final per the constitution. So if the concern is the point between the cinstituency and Chebukait, that does not seem all that difficult to resolve. If it is at the constituency, still waiting for the special Bomas magic that will resolve what IEBC people and party agents at that level cannot. It simply isnt there.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #73 on: May 25, 2017, 06:32:07 PM »
I believe there has been rigging in every election in this country.That is why in each election high court has ruled against some seats. There was rigging in 2013. There will be rigging in 2017. In such a huge undertaken - you expect some people will attempt to game the system while others will make honest mistakes - the issue for me is whether the rigging is material enough to alter the outcome or not.

I believe like most people believe MOI won 92 & 97 election thanks to splintered opposition. He certainly won in parliament with about the same percentage. There was rigging but general consensus remained MOI had won fairly and squarely. There is no way Matiba would have won in 92 - with Kibaki taking half GEMA, Jaramogi taking Nyanza and western - and Moi basically taking the rest.

I didn't suppport Moi in 92 and 97 - I supported Kibaki with family. You certainly don't expect Matiba with 32Mps in 92 to become PORK :) - how would he ran business - in parliament of 210 Mps?

In 2002 - NARC won - fair and square - but there was some rigging. In 2013 - UhuRuto won fair and square - and there was some rigging. Brand new supreme court led by Mutunga returned a 7 -NIL verdict - ODM had 2 weeks to find all evidences - and they had agents everywhere - and that is constitution that Raila passed. If you wanted the supreme court to take more time - ammend the law. We are heading to 2017 election with same period of hearing petitions.

The exception was 2007 - and reaction of kenyans was obvious - spontaneous  degeneration into worse violence ever experience in this country. And it very obvious Kibaki had brazenly rigged Raila out - he had really small majority in parliament (PNU -45mps), lost speaker of parliament - and had really no way of governing - without buying Kalonzo and accepting grand coalition.  Thankfully it gave us new constitution.

1988 is also widely believed to have been rigged - and it gave us back multiparty democracy.

Like I said, one day you will be lucky to delve in to the 2013 elections and will be pleasantly surprised when lots of your ignorance is reduced.

You have to be ashamed of yourself citing a court dismissal as proof of no rigging. Let me give you examples of court petitions dismissed by the courts:

1. 1993 - High Court files Petition against Moi. Court dismisses the petition because Matiba did not sign the petition (on grounds of having had a stroke when Moiu detained him) and the court goes ahead to certify that Moi was validly elected! Note that there were so many acrobatics that the petition ended up being heard and determined by the Court of Appeal. All the judges involved would later lose their jobs and reputations on account of that petition.

2. Kibaki filed his following the 1997 election. It would not be heard and determined until briefly in 1999 when the court ruled on preliminary objections. It was thrown out on the grounds that Kibaki failed to penetrate the murderous Moi security to personally serve Moi - a provision turned in to law by the 1993 Matiba Petition!
 
The Supreme Court did not hear ALL the evidence. Once it ruled out the key evidence, I think CORD should have withdrawn from the case.

The whole idea behind judicial reforms was to end the use of technicalities to determine cases. Yet when it came to a matter crucial to the country, the SC chose a technicality. I would listen to you if the court had delved in to the evidence, then found nothing worth considering.

But then again, you are a Jubilee propagandist and any advantage must be celebrated. You are part of the retinue of a man you celebrate as "ruthless".

Hassan did not conduct free and fair elections. He was also found culpable in corruption. He was found to have received bribes by a British court.

There is no recount that could succeed. Like I have explained the centre at Kenyatta University produced marked ballot papers to top up areas where there had been virtual voting. Where ROs had manufactured results, the NIS ensured that marked ballot papers were added to make sure there is no failure in recounts.

Note am not convincing you. I already suspect you know all this. I am telling you so you and others know we know your game in 2013 and the plans for 2017.
$

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #74 on: May 25, 2017, 06:37:28 PM »
All elections are done in polling station and all the votes are counted there, results announced publicly there (all this done to avoid ballot stuffing during transportation) but that is not the end of the story for obvious reasons. The constitution requires the Returning Officer to verify and tally up the results. IEBC appoint ROs for all the elections.

Const RO is not a special RO or the only RO.

Const RO is responsible for MCA & MP election. He tally up, verify and issue the winners with certificate and prepare for any petition. He then becomes a conveyor belt for the other results. He send the governor/senate/women rep results to County RO - who then verify and tally up - and issues the winners with certificate & prepare for any petition. He also send the results to Chebukaiti - who is the presidential RO - whose mandate as const says is to verify and tally up presidential or referendum votes.

I think the court of appeal will overturn the high court rulling so do not end up with messed up process.

At end of the day we have to trust IEBC will independently conduct free and fair election. I don't know at what point IEBC became Jubilee. Jubilee bend over - send Hassan team home - and NASA got brand new IEBC.

Let IEBC conduct elections - and Supreme court (Presidential) or high court(others) - hear any petitions.

If there is any alteration made during this verifying and re-tallying - there is paper trail - lodge you complain in court and convince them.

Otherwise I don't think there is cure for mistrust of the supreme court and IEBC that NASA displays here.

Here is pundit saying the Presidential election at Constituency level conducts itself.

Pundit, what does "verifying" entail? Where is it specified that the RO is only there for MCA and MP? and not President?

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #75 on: May 25, 2017, 07:39:39 PM »
Pundit,

Where do you derive the word "vet" in all its forms (vetting, vetted)? The constitution provides for tabulation and announcement. No other role is assigned the RO. Even if you say the RO is Chebukati in all the 290 constituencies, he still gets the same powers assigned by the constitution - no more
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #76 on: May 25, 2017, 07:47:10 PM »
Jubilee forced the IEBC to appeal because they feel they lost an advantage. The information we have is that Chebukati was not keen to appeal, but Chiloba worked closely with Jubilee to get the commision to force an appeal.

It is your opinion that the verdict will be overturned. My experience is such that cases heard and determined by a judge of three to five are never overturned. If they do, there would be suspicion of tampering. The last major case to be heard by multiple judges was the Rawal case. Eventually Ojwang and Njoki lost even though they voted for it on behalf of Jubilee.

My own prediction is that at best, there will be a majority decision in support of the High Court. The matter will then end at the Supreme Court contrary to the claims by Jubilee and IEBC that it will end at the Court of Appeal. It is at the Supreme Court that Maraga will start repaying his debt for being appointed Chief Justice.

All elections are done in polling station and all the votes are counted there, results announced publicly there (all this done to avoid ballot stuffing during transportation) but that is not the end of the story for obvious reasons. The constitution requires the Returning Officer to verify and tally up the results. IEBC appoint ROs for all the elections.

Const RO is not a special RO or the only RO.

Const RO is responsible for MCA & MP election. He tally up, verify and issue the winners with certificate and prepare for any petition. He then becomes a conveyor belt for the other results. He send the governor/senate/women rep results to County RO - who then verify and tally up - and issues the winners with certificate & prepare for any petition. He also send the results to Chebukaiti - who is the presidential RO - whose mandate as const says is to verify and tally up presidential or referendum votes.

I think the court of appeal will overturn the high court rulling so do not end up with messed up process.

At end of the day we have to trust IEBC will independently conduct free and fair election. I don't know at what point IEBC became Jubilee. Jubilee bend over - send Hassan team home - and NASA got brand new IEBC.

Let IEBC conduct elections - and Supreme court (Presidential) or high court(others) - hear any petitions.

If there is any alteration made during this verifying and re-tallying - there is paper trail - lodge you complain in court and convince them.

Otherwise I don't think there is cure for mistrust of the supreme court and IEBC that NASA displays here.

Here is pundit saying the Presidential election at Constituency level conducts itself.

Pundit, what does "verifying" entail? Where is it specified that the RO is only there for MCA and MP? and not President?
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #77 on: May 25, 2017, 08:03:54 PM »
Vet - mean you make sure all signatures and the forms are valid. Those are just english word. But election laws & IEBC regulation has dealt with the details of doing that.
Pundit,

Where do you derive the word "vet" in all its forms (vetting, vetted)? The constitution provides for tabulation and announcement. No other role is assigned the RO. Even if you say the RO is Chebukati in all the 290 constituencies, he still gets the same powers assigned by the constitution - no more


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #78 on: May 25, 2017, 08:06:39 PM »
The usual romours and conjecture from someone with zero credibility. IEBC appealed. That is all we know. Jubilee seem to relish either way - having 290 ROs announcing final result favour the incumbent if you ask me.
Jubilee forced the IEBC to appeal because they feel they lost an advantage. The information we have is that Chebukati was not keen to appeal, but Chiloba worked closely with Jubilee to get the commision to force an appeal.

It is your opinion that the verdict will be overturned. My experience is such that cases heard and determined by a judge of three to five are never overturned. If they do, there would be suspicion of tampering. The last major case to be heard by multiple judges was the Rawal case. Eventually Ojwang and Njoki lost even though they voted for it on behalf of Jubilee.

My own prediction is that at best, there will be a majority decision in support of the High Court. The matter will then end at the Supreme Court contrary to the claims by Jubilee and IEBC that it will end at the Court of Appeal. It is at the Supreme Court that Maraga will start repaying his debt for being appointed Chief Justice.

Offline Omollo

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Re: The Vote Tallying Case Simplified
« Reply #79 on: May 25, 2017, 08:29:15 PM »
Virtually every commentator on this says its Jubilee behind the appeal. That is not including the not so secret information on social media about the goings on inside iEBC.

The truth is this:

2002 - after IPPG reforms providing for polling station counting and Party representation in Commission = KANU falls
2005 - Reforms in place - Kibaki sponsored Katiba fails in referendum
2007 - Kibaki reverses the reforms = Rigging and PEV
2010 - Constitution cements the IPPG reforms plus more
2012 - NIS secretly engineers watering down cheating Raila he is the beneficiary
2013 - Hassan uses the regulations to rig in Uhuru
2016 - CORD goes to the streets to remove unfair provisions in the laws
2016 - Uhuru attempts and partially succeeds in reversing the CORD gains
2017 - Maina Kiai obtains a High Court declaration that Results announced at the Constituency are final and not subject to change
2017 - Jubilee forces IEBC to appeal

When your son or was it daughter studies Political Science, that is what she will be taught.

The usual romours and conjecture from someone with zero credibility. IEBC appealed. That is all we know. Jubilee seem to relish either way - having 290 ROs announcing final result favour the incumbent if you ask me.
Jubilee forced the IEBC to appeal because they feel they lost an advantage. The information we have is that Chebukati was not keen to appeal, but Chiloba worked closely with Jubilee to get the commision to force an appeal.

It is your opinion that the verdict will be overturned. My experience is such that cases heard and determined by a judge of three to five are never overturned. If they do, there would be suspicion of tampering. The last major case to be heard by multiple judges was the Rawal case. Eventually Ojwang and Njoki lost even though they voted for it on behalf of Jubilee.

My own prediction is that at best, there will be a majority decision in support of the High Court. The matter will then end at the Supreme Court contrary to the claims by Jubilee and IEBC that it will end at the Court of Appeal. It is at the Supreme Court that Maraga will start repaying his debt for being appointed Chief Justice.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread